Mirassol v Gremio result

Full-time · Mirassol 2–1 Gremio

Serie A – Brazil · Sat, 18 Jul 2026 00:00 BST · Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia

Updated 18 Oct 2026, 23:22 UK · refreshed continuously

The model’s pre-match pick

Mirassol 2–1 Gremio — Mirassol won this Serie A – Brazil match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Away.

Free pick

Home or Away

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.3% of 4357 landed (95% range 76–78.5%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →

Match report, in numbers

The result

Mirassol beat Gremio 2–1 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia in Serie A – Brazil on Saturday 18 July. Gremio have scored in seven consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

Mirassol led 2–0 at half-time. The goals — Mirassol: Bruno Santos (16’, assisted by Igor Formiga) and Edson Carioca (40’, assisted by Denilson); Gremio: Carlos Vinícius (77’, assisted by Cristian Pavón).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s three key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Bruno Santos’s goal on 16 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Mirassol 1.38, Gremio 0.52, from 14 shots to 9 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

Bruno Arleu de Araujo, Brazil showed four yellow cards — against 4.7 yellows a game across the last 21 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Mirassol: Denilson (38’); Gremio: Walter Kannemann (41’), Gustavo Martins (65’) and Leonel Pérez (79’).

What it changes

Mirassol stay 18th after this result (18 league matches played).

Gremio move down from 15th to 16th (19 league matches played).

Gremio are winless in their last three matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Igor Formiga (Mirassol) 9.5, Cristian Pavón (Gremio) 8.1 and Edson Carioca (Mirassol) 7.5 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Mirassol or Gremio (no draw), a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record like every other call. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 77.3% of the time in the last 90 days (3366 of 4357).

Next up

Mirassol next host Sao Paulo on 24 October 2026.

Gremio next travel to Coritiba on 26 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Mirassol: Mirassol v Sao Paulo, Saturday 24 October — the preview. Next for Gremio: Coritiba v Gremio, Monday 26 October — the preview.

The numbers

Result: Mirassol 2–1 Gremio · Serie A – Brazil
Venue: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia · Mirassol
Referee: Bruno Arleu de Araujo, Brazil
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 3): Mirassol 3 · draws 0 · Gremio 0 · 3.67 goals/game
Recent form: Mirassol 2W 0D 3L · Gremio 2W 2D 1L

Mirassol 2–1 Gremio (Serie A – Brazil): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 18 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.13 / 1.88

Goals

against 1 / 1.13 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.25

over 8 matches

4.38 / 3.75

Corners

against 4.25 / 6.13 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

4.13 / 4.25

Shots on target

against 3.25 / 4.63 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

1.63 / 3

Cards

against 2.38 / 3.13 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

4.67 yellows

Referee · Bruno Arleu de Araujo, Brazil

2.43 home / 2.24 away

over 21 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 30 May 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 30 May 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Mirassol for / against	Line	Gremio for / against
Goals scored	1.13 for · 1 against n 8 Last 5	2.25our book	1.88 for · 1.13 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	4.38 for · 4.25 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	3.75 for · 6.13 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	11.63 for · 13.13 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	11 for · 16.5 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	4.13 for · 3.25 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	4.25 for · 4.63 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	10 for · 14.13 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	14.38 for · 16.5 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	1.63 for · 2.38 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	3 for · 3.13 against n 8 Last 5

Referee: Bruno Arleu de Araujo, Brazil — 4.67 yellow cards a game, 0.14 red cards, 26.86 fouls over 21 matches (2.43 to the home side, 2.24 to the away side).

Home 2.43Away 2.24

Mirassol

Mirassol — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 30 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Igor Formiga n 8	75.8	3 7/5	0.6 4/0	Walter Kannemann
Denilson n 8	62.8	2.7 8/3	1.6 5/4	—
Chico Kim n 8	45.5	2.2 5/2	3.7 6/3	—
Jose Aldo n 8	75.8	1.9 7/5	0.7 3/1	—
Shaylon n 8	73.6	1.5 6/2	0.6 3/1	—

Mirassol — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 30 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Everton Galdino n 8	54	2.1 6/2	0.4 2/0
Alesson n 8	76.8	1.6 5/4	1 4/3
Reinaldo n 8	89.3	1.3 4/2	0.5 3/1
Shaylon n 8	73.6	1.2 4/3	0.5 3/0
Edson Carioca n 8	63.3	1.2 5/2	0.9 4/1

Mirassol — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 30 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Edson Carioca n 8	63.3	0.4 2/0	0 0/0
Carlos Eduardo n 8	62.3	0.2 1/0	0.2 1/0
Chico Kim n 8	45.5	0.2 1/0	0.2 1/0
Alesson n 8	76.8	0 0/0	0.3 1/1
Eduardo n 8	39.1	0.3 1/0	0 0/0

Mirassol — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 30 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Igor Formiga n 8	75.8	3 7/4
Chico Kim n 8	45.5	3 4/2
Lucas Mugni n 8	47.5	2.6 5/4
Jose Aldo n 8	75.8	2.5 8/5
Denilson n 8	62.8	2.5 8/5

Mirassol — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 30 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Alex Muralha n 8	93.6	3.5 7/6
Walter n 8	93.9	1.9 5/3

Gremio

Gremio — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 30 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Riquelme Freitas n 8	29.5	2.7 4/3	2.7 4/3	—
Viery n 8	89.4	2.3 7/6	0.9 5/1	—
Leonel Pérez n 8	75.6	2.1 7/5	1.6 5/4	—
Tiago n 4	48.3	1.9 3/1	3.3 2/1	—
Walter Kannemann n 8	76	1.8 6/3	0.4 2/1	Igor Formiga

Gremio — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 30 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Tetê n 8	42.5	2.9 7/4	1.9 5/2
Carlos Vinícius n 8	76.4	1.9 6/5	1.3 6/2
Gabriel Mec n 8	64.1	1.9 6/4	1.1 5/1
F. Amuzu n 8	61.1	1.8 6/3	0.4 2/0
Willian n 8	46.6	1 4/0	0.2 1/0

Gremio — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 30 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Martin Braithwaite n 8	62.1	0.7 3/1	0 0/0
Gabriel Mec n 8	64.1	0.4 2/0	0.2 1/0
Carlos Vinícius n 8	76.4	0.6 3/1	0 0/0
Cristian Pavón n 8	80.4	0.1 1/0	0.4 2/1
F. Amuzu n 8	61.1	0.2 1/0	0.2 1/0

Gremio — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 30 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
José Enamorado n 8	45.3	3.2 6/6
Leonel Pérez n 8	75.6	3.1 8/7
Viery n 8	89.4	2.4 7/5
Cristian Pavón n 8	80.4	1.8 7/4
Luis Guedes n 4	67.8	1.7 3/1

Gremio — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 30 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Weverton n 8	85.1	2.8 6/4

The next free picks, by email

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Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Mirassol		Gremio
45%	Possession	55%
1.38	Expected goals (xG)	0.52
14	Shots	9
3	Shots on target	4
9	Shots off target	3
2	Blocked shots	2
10	Shots inside the box	5
5	Corners	4
0	Offsides	1
14	Fouls	9
1	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
3	Saves	1
340	Passes	445
80%	Pass accuracy	83%

Mirassol player stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
Walter	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.3
Igor Formiga	90	0	1	1	0	2	5	0	7.5
Joao Victor	90	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	6.6
Gabriel	90	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	7.5
Reinaldo	90	0	0	3	0	4	4	0	8.3
Jose Aldo	90	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	6.2
Denilson	83	0	1	0	0	2	2	Y	7.2
Alesson	83	0	0	1	0	1	3	0	6.5
Japa	76	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	7.3
Bruno Santos	75	1	0	3	1	0	0	0	7.5
Edson Carioca	72	1	0	2	1	0	1	0	7.6
Carlos Eduardo sub	18	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.3
Andre Luis sub	15	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.2
Chico Kim sub	14	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.7
Fernandinho sub	14	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.5
Shaylon sub	14	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.5

Gremio player stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
Weverton	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.2
Cristian Pavón	90	0	1	1	0	3	2	0	6.6
Gustavo Martins	90	0	0	0	0	2	5	Y	8
Walter Kannemann	90	0	0	0	0	0	1	Y	6
Carlos Vinícius	90	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	7.5
Tetê	86	0	0	2	2	0	1	0	6.3
Juan Nardoni	80	0	0	2	1	0	5	0	6.3
Caio Paulista	45	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.2
Mathias Villasanti	45	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.9
Gabriel Mec	45	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.3
F. Amuzu	45	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	6.7
Pedro Gabriel sub	45	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	6.9
Willian sub	45	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.7
Leonel Pérez sub	45	0	0	0	0	1	1	Y	6.9
Martin Braithwaite sub	45	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.2
Marcos Rocha sub	11	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.9
Riquelme Freitas sub	10	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.9

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Mirassol v Gremio — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

MirassolLWWLL

Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · 0.8 scored / 1.2 conceded per game

GremioDWWDL

Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · 1.8 scored / 1.6 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 3

Mirassol 3 · 0 draws · Gremio 0 · 3.67 goals/game

2025-09-13 Gremio 0–1 Mirassol
2025-04-16 Mirassol 4–1 Gremio
2022-03-02 Mirassol 3–2 Gremio

League standing · 2026

Mirassol#14 pos36 pts31 pl-8 GD

Gremio#18 pos31 pts31 pl-10 GD

Goals per game

Mirassol scored1.16

Gremio scored1.1

Mirassol conceded1.42

Gremio conceded1.42

The full post-match picture

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Mirassol v Gremio?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Mirassol v Gremio was Home or Away.
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Gremio?: In their last 3 meetings, Mirassol won 3, Gremio won 0 and there were 0 draws, averaging 3.67 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Mirassol and Gremio?: Recent form — Mirassol 2W 0D 3L; Gremio 2W 2D 1L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 18 Oct 2026, 23:22 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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