AC MilanCagliari

AC Milan v Cagliari result

Full-time · AC Milan 1–2 Cagliari

Serie A · · Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: AC Milan · Cagliari · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

AC Milan 1–2 Cagliari — Cagliari won this Serie A match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Away.

Free pick
Home or Away
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.9% of 5118 landed (95% range 76.7–79%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated home or away, not the draw (double chance) between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 1,967 of 2,632 times (74.7%), against an average rating of 73.4%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said Cagliari: 3.68 to 1.76 in expected goals, from 25 shots to 16, ahead on xG from the 19th minute (per-shot expected goals for this match).

The result

Cagliari won 2–1 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Serie A on Sunday 24 May. AC Milan are unbeaten in the last six meetings with Cagliari, every meeting checked.

The goals

It was 1–1 at half-time. The goals — AC Milan: Alexis Saelemaekers (2’, assisted by Santiago Giménez); Cagliari: Gennaro Borrelli (20’) and J. Rodríguez (57’).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s three key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with J. Rodríguez’s goal on 57 minutes.

Discipline

M. Guida showed four yellow cards — against 3.4 yellows a game across the last 7 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — AC Milan: Strahinja Pavlović (56’) and Mike Maignan (58’); Cagliari: Zé Pedro (2’) and I. Sulemana (90+6’).

What it changes

AC Milan move down from second to fifth (38 league matches played). AC Milan have scored five goals, the eighth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 5 games, ranked per game). AC Milan have conceded eight goals, the fifth-most of the 20 clubs.

Cagliari move up from 16th to 14th (38 league matches played). Cagliari have scored seven goals, the fifth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 5 games, ranked per game). Cagliari have conceded six goals, the 10th-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Alexis Saelemaekers (AC Milan) 8.1, Sebastiano Esposito (Cagliari) 7.1 and Gennaro Borrelli (Cagliari) 5.7 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, AC Milan or Cagliari (no draw), a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 77.9% of the time in the last 90 days (3985 of 5118).

Next up

AC Milan next travel to Genoa on 8 November 2026.

Cagliari next travel to Como on 22 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for AC Milan: Genoa v AC Milan, Sunday 8 November — the preview. Next for Cagliari: Como v Cagliari, Sunday 22 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: AC Milan 1–2 Cagliari · Serie A
  • Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza · Milan
  • Referee: M. Guida
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): AC Milan 4 · draws 2 · Cagliari 0 · 4 goals/game
  • Recent form: AC Milan 2W 1D 2L · Cagliari 2W 1D 2L

AC Milan 1–2 Cagliari (Serie A): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1 / 0.88
Goals
against 1.5 / 1.38 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.75
over 8 matches
2.75 / 4.75
Corners
against 3.75 / 4.5 · 0 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
3.75 / 3
Shots on target
against 4.25 / 4.13 · 1 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.13 / 1
Cards
against 2.25 / 1 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
3.43 yellows
Referee · M. Guida
20.71 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 7 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 May 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 17 May 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameAC Milan for / againstLineCagliari for / against
Goals scored
1 for · 1.5 against n 8
2.75our book
0.88 for · 1.38 against n 8
Corners won
2.75 for · 3.75 against n 8
9.5standard
4.75 for · 4.5 against n 8
Shots
11.38 for · 12.13 against n 8
19.5standard
12.13 for · 11.63 against n 8
Shots on target
3.75 for · 4.25 against n 8
8.5standard
3 for · 4.13 against n 8
Fouls committed
10.63 for · 11.63 against n 8
21.5standard
9.5 for · 14.25 against n 8
Cards shown
2.13 for · 2.25 against n 8
3.5standard
1 for · 1 against n 8

Referee: M. Guida — 3.43 yellow cards a game, 0.43 red cards, 20.71 fouls over 7 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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AC Milan

AC Milan Goalkeeper

AC Milan — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
M. Maignan40893571 min1072.7 /90360.9 /9020.1 /90
P. Terracciano262124 min42.9 /9000 /9000 /90
AC Milan — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AC Milan before kick-off, to 17 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Maignan n 890
2.97/3

AC Milan Defensive

AC Milan — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
S. Pavlović37853134 min551.6 /90270.8 /90140.4 /901825.2 /90310.9 /9050.1 /90
F. Tomori35822866 min722.3 /90341.1 /90250.8 /901033.2 /90401.3 /9090.3 /90
M. Gabbia29872525 min200.7 /90140.5 /90190.7 /90853 /90250.9 /9040.1 /90
K. De Winter25812021 min301.3 /90120.5 /90120.5 /90833.7 /90321.4 /9020.1 /90
Zachary Athekame1745768 min131.5 /9020.2 /9000 /90354.1 /90141.6 /9030.4 /90
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AC Milan — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AC Milan before kick-off, to 17 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
M. Maignan n 890
00/0
00/0
—
A. Saelemaekers n 873.9
1.25/2
1.45/3
A. Obert
S. Pavlović n 890
1.16/3
0.95/1
—
F. Tomori n 869.3
1.86/4
0.31/1
—
Y. Fofana n 859
0.63/0
0.42/0
A. Obert
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AC Milan — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AC Milan before kick-off, to 17 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
A. Saelemaekers n 873.9
2.68/6
S. Pavlović n 890
27/5
F. Tomori n 869.3
1.86/4
Y. Fofana n 859
1.37/0
L. Modrić n 886.5
16/2
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AC Milan Attacking

AC Milan — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Rafael Leão29671936 min100.5 /9030.1 /90462.1 /90251.2 /90211 /90261.2 /90
C. Pulišić27631693 min90.5 /9030.2 /90382 /90231.2 /90432.3 /90281.5 /90
C. Nkunku25561390 min80.5 /9020.1 /90271.7 /90151 /90171.1 /9070.5 /90
N. Füllkrug1933618 min10.1 /9000 /90111.6 /9050.7 /9091.3 /9030.4 /90
S. Giménez1662984 min10.1 /9010.1 /90262.4 /90111 /9050.5 /9030.3 /90
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AC Milan — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AC Milan before kick-off, to 17 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
M. Maignan n 890
00/0
00/0
A. Saelemaekers n 873.9
0.96/0
0.64/0
S. Pavlović n 890
0.94/3
0.32/0
F. Tomori n 869.3
00/0
00/0
Y. Fofana n 859
1.35/1
0.84/0
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AC Milan — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AC Milan before kick-off, to 17 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
M. Maignan n 890
00/0
00/0
A. Saelemaekers n 873.9
00/0
00/0
S. Pavlović n 890
0.32/0
00/0
F. Tomori n 869.3
00/0
00/0
Y. Fofana n 859
0.21/0
00/0
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Cagliari

Cagliari Goalkeeper

Cagliari — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
E. Caprile37903330 min1203.2 /90521.4 /9000 /90
Cagliari — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Cagliari before kick-off, to 17 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
E. Caprile n 890
2.86/4

Cagliari Defensive

Cagliari — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
A. Obert33812686 min652.2 /90401.3 /90180.6 /901234.1 /90391.3 /90100.3 /90
Y. Mina25832063 min311.4 /90241 /90231 /901275.5 /90251.1 /9050.2 /90
G. Zappa24631514 min271.6 /90161 /9020.1 /90492.9 /90140.8 /9020.1 /90
Zé Pedro22791730 min321.7 /90201 /90120.6 /90703.6 /90291.5 /9050.3 /90
S. Luperto20901797 min150.8 /90201 /90100.5 /90502.5 /90231.2 /9030.2 /90
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Cagliari — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Cagliari before kick-off, to 17 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
M. Adopo n 881.3
0.84/2
0.43/0
—
E. Caprile n 890
00/0
00/0
—
M. Palestra n 879.5
1.36/2
3.16/5
—
S. Esposito n 881.5
1.26/2
2.17/5
—
A. Obert n 886.9
0.53/1
0.54/0
Y. Fofana
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Cagliari — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Cagliari before kick-off, to 17 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
M. Adopo n 881.3
1.75/3
M. Palestra n 879.5
1.46/4
S. Esposito n 881.5
1.57/2
A. Obert n 886.9
2.68/7
G. Gaetano n 884
28/5
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Cagliari Attacking

Cagliari — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
S. Esposito35752610 min70.2 /9050.2 /90401.4 /90160.6 /90672.3 /90170.6 /90
G. Borrelli25511268 min50.4 /9010.1 /90181.3 /9090.6 /90120.9 /9070.5 /90
S. Kılıçsoy1855985 min40.4 /9000 /90111 /9080.7 /90100.9 /90151.4 /90
M. Felici1140441 min20.4 /9020.4 /9091.8 /9071.4 /90132.7 /9091.8 /90
Zito Luvumbo1032316 min00 /9000 /90102.8 /9051.4 /9030.9 /9030.9 /90
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Cagliari — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Cagliari before kick-off, to 17 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
M. Adopo n 881.3
0.32/0
0.11/0
E. Caprile n 890
00/0
00/0
M. Palestra n 879.5
14/3
0.43/0
S. Esposito n 881.5
1.88/3
0.86/0
A. Obert n 886.9
0.52/1
0.31/1
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Cagliari — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Cagliari before kick-off, to 17 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
M. Adopo n 881.3
00/0
0.11/0
E. Caprile n 890
00/0
00/0
M. Palestra n 879.5
00/0
00/0
S. Esposito n 881.5
0.43/0
00/0
A. Obert n 886.9
00/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
AC MilanCagliari
48%Possession52%
1.74Expected goals (xG)2.78
16Shots25
3Shots on target10
11Shots off target8
2Blocked shots7
13Shots inside the box16
5Corners5
3Offsides0
8Fouls9
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
9Saves2
455Passes487
87%Pass accuracy88%

AC Milan Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
M. Maignan90000000Y9.7
M. Gabbia9000000107.5
S. Pavlović90001001Y6.3
A. Saelemaekers9010113307.9
A. Rabiot9000404107.7
D. Bartesaghi9000002207.3
Y. Fofana6800110106
A. Jashari6200000006.6
F. Tomori6100000006.3
C. Nkunku6100111006.6
S. Giménez4501201106.3
C. Pulišić sub4500300106.7
Zachary Athekame sub2900000207.2
N. Füllkrug sub2900000006.3
L. Modrić sub2800101207.3
Rafael Leão sub2200003007.2

Cagliari Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
E. Caprile9000000006.9
Y. Mina9000000106.7
G. Zappa9000111006.5
M. Adopo9000001206.5
G. Gaetano9000421107.2
A. Obert9000003306.9
S. Esposito8900204407.7
A. Deiola7400210006.3
G. Borrelli7410440008.3
Zé Pedro63002000Y6.7
J. Rodríguez6210110107
A. Dossena sub2800000106.9
M. Palestra sub2700102007.3
I. Sulemana sub16000001Y6.2
P. Mendy sub1600111006.9
M. Felici sub10000000–

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind AC Milan v Cagliari — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
AC MilanWDLLW
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
CagliariLWDLW
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1 scored / 1.6 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
AC Milan 4 · 2 draws · Cagliari 0 · 4 goals/game
  • 2026-01-02 Cagliari 0–1 AC Milan
  • 2025-01-11 AC Milan 1–1 Cagliari
  • 2024-11-09 Cagliari 3–3 AC Milan
  • 2024-05-11 AC Milan 5–1 Cagliari
  • 2024-01-02 AC Milan 4–1 Cagliari
  • 2023-09-27 Cagliari 1–3 AC Milan
League standing · 2025/26
AC Milan#5 pos70 pts38 pl+18 GD
Cagliari#14 pos43 pts38 pl-13 GD
Goals per game
AC Milan scored1.39
Cagliari scored1.05
AC Milan conceded0.92
Cagliari conceded1.39

Shot Map and Expected Goals

AC Milan 1.76 xG from 16 shots, Cagliari 3.68 from 25. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Paul Mendy 85' · 0.44 xGAdrien Rabiot 74' · 0.42 xGGabriele Zappa 72' · 0.38 xGChristopher Nkunku 26' · 0.31 xGSebastiano Esposito 72' · 0.16 xGSantiago Giménez 39' · 0.15 xGNdary Adopo 75' · 0.14 xGGennaro Borrelli 72' · 0.12 xGMarco Palestra 94' · 0.12 xGYerry Mina 19' · 0.09 xGChristian Pulisic 87' · 0.09 xGAdrien Rabiot 50' · 0.07 xGSebastiano Esposito 91' · 0.07 xGGennaro Borrelli 56' · 0.07 xGGianluca Gaetano 45' · 0.07 xGZé Pedro 51' · 0.07 xGMarco Palestra 81' · 0.06 xGSulemana 84' · 0.06 xGAlessandro Deiola 38' · 0.05 xGChristian Pulisic 83' · 0.05 xGSantiago Giménez 29' · 0.05 xGAdrien Rabiot 21' · 0.04 xGGianluca Gaetano 18' · 0.04 xGLuka Modric 80' · 0.04 xGYoussouf Fofana 29' · 0.03 xGGennaro Borrelli 69' · 0.03 xGChristian Pulisic 62' · 0.03 xGSulemana 73' · 0.03 xGGianluca Gaetano 76' · 0.03 xGGianluca Gaetano 13' · 0.03 xGDavide Bartesaghi 89' · 0.03 xGZachary Athekame 89' · 0.03 xGStrahinja Pavlovic 79' · 0.02 xGZé Pedro 36' · 0.02 xGAdrien Rabiot 67' · 0.02 xGAlessandro Deiola 8' · 0.02 xGSebastiano Esposito 42' · 0.02 xGGennaro Borrelli 40' · 0.01 xGGennaro Borrelli 19' · 0.82 xG · goalJuan Rodríguez 56' · 0.72 xG · goalAlexis Saelemaekers 1' · 0.37 xG · goal
AC Milan (attacking right)Cagliari (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
AC Milan1611.76
Cagliari2523.68

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, xG was level: AC Milan 0.96, Cagliari 1.18. At full time, Cagliari led on xG, 3.68 to 1.76. The widest gap was 1.92 xG to Cagliari, in the 94th minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)
3.71.800′15′30′45′60′75′90′105′MinutesCumulative xGGoal - AC Milan 1 minGoal - Cagliari 19 minGoal - Cagliari 56 min
AC Milan 1.76 xGCagliari 3.68 xGdots = goals · 41 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for AC Milan v Cagliari?
TACTIX’s free model pick for AC Milan v Cagliari was Home or Away.
What is the head-to-head record between AC Milan and Cagliari?
In their last 6 meetings, AC Milan won 4, Cagliari won 0 and there were 2 draws, averaging 4 goals per game.
What is the recent form of AC Milan and Cagliari?
Recent form — AC Milan 2W 1D 2L; Cagliari 2W 1D 2L.

Today’s Boards

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