Monza v Atalanta prediction

Serie A · Sun, 08 Nov 2026 14:00 GMT · Brianteo

Updated 6 Nov 2026, 06:43 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Monza · Atalanta · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Monza v Atalanta, Serie A on Sun, 08 Nov 2026 14:00 GMT.

Free pick

Over 2.5 goals

Best price: 1.60 at Betano

What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 67.4% of 543 landed (95% range 63.4–71.2%); it had given them 75.9% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 544 of 845 times (64.4%), against an average rating of 67.7%. How we measure →

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Monza host Atalanta in Serie A on Sunday 8 November (kick-off 14:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.

The key numbers

Monza have scored in 12 consecutive matches in all competitions. Atalanta are unbeaten in the last six meetings with Monza, every meeting checked.

Form and the table

11 of Monza’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (73%). Both teams scored in 10 of Monza’s last 15 results in all competitions (67%). At home, Monza have four wins, no draws and three defeats in their last 7 home matches in all competitions — 1.71 points per game, scoring 2.00 and conceding 1.57. Monza have scored 17 goals, the seventh-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 10 games). Monza have conceded 24 goals, the second-most of the 20 clubs.

Nine of Atalanta’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in nine of Atalanta’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). Away from home, Atalanta have one win, one draw and four defeats in their last 6 away matches in all competitions — 0.67 points per game, scoring 1.00 and conceding 1.83. Atalanta have scored 16 goals, the ninth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 10 games). Atalanta have conceded 20 goals, the seventh-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Monza have lost their last three matches in all competitions. Atalanta are winless in their last six matches in all competitions. Monza (18th) and Atalanta (13th) are four points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Atalanta the stronger side, 25 rating points above Monza (Atalanta 1460, Monza 1435, after at least 124 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 4 May 2025, finished Monza 0–4 Atalanta.

Team news

Predicted Monza XI (3-4-2-1): N. Törnqvist, L. Lucchesi, S. Goglichidze, E. Kouadio, R. Mangas, S. Birindelli, M. Ondoa, E. Akinsanmiro, L. Colombo, M. Folorunsho, G. Varela — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Gustavo Varela (6.4 per match over 10 appearances, 11 goals and one assist) and Eddy Kouadio (4.2 per match over 11 appearances, one goal) have been Monza’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Monza (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Gustavo Varela averages 2.4 shots per 90 over 841 minutes, with a shot in nine of the last 10 appearances. Eddy Kouadio averages 3.4 tackles per 90 over 885 minutes, with a tackle in nine of the last 10 appearances.

Atalanta have one name on the availability list: I. Hien (out, Muscle Bruise) — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-11-06. Predicted Atalanta XI (4-3-3): M. Carnesecchi, R. ObriÄ, L. Bernasconi, D. Zappacosta, G. Scalvini, Éderson, E. Elmas, M. Pašalić, N. Krstović, G. Scamacca, N. Zalewski — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, Charles De Ketelaere (3.9 per match over 14 appearances, one goal and four assists) and Nikola Krstović (3.7 per match over 14 appearances, seven goals and two assists) have been Atalanta’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Atalanta (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Charles De Ketelaere averages 1.2 shots per 90 over 1806 minutes, with a shot in seven of the last 10 appearances. Nikola Krstović averages 3.9 shots per 90 over 1104 minutes, with a shot in nine of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Sun, 08 Nov 2026 14:00 GMT · Serie A · Brianteo
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): Monza 0 · draws 0 · Atalanta 6 · 3.5 goals/game
Recent form: Monza 1W 0D 4L · Atalanta 0W 3D 2L

Monza v Atalanta (Serie A): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 6 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.75 / 1.88

Goals

against 2.13 / 2.13 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.25

over 8 matches

4 / 6.5

Corners

against 4.88 / 5.38 · 1 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

5.88 / 6.25

Shots on target

against 5.63 / 5.38 · 5 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

1.88 / 1.5

Cards

against 1.88 / 2 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 5 November 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 5 November 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Monza for / against	Line	Atalanta for / against
Goals scored	1.75 for · 2.13 against n 8 Last 5	3.25our book	1.88 for · 2.13 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	4 for · 4.88 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	6.5 for · 5.38 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	13 for · 13.75 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	17.13 for · 15.38 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	5.88 for · 5.63 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	6.25 for · 5.38 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	12.25 for · 10.88 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	11 for · 8.88 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	1.88 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	1.5 for · 2 against n 8 Last 5

Monza

Monza Goalkeeper

Monza — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded
N. Törnqvist	6	90540 min	264.3 /90	71.2 /90
D. Thiam	5	90450 min	51 /90	71.4 /90
S. Pizzignacco	1	9090 min	11 /90	44 /90

Monza — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Monza before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
N. Törnqvist n 6	90	4.3 6/6
D. Thiam n 8	91.1	1.5 3/1

Monza Defensive

Monza — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
E. Kouadio	11	80885 min	333.4 /90	262.6 /90	70.7 /90	464.7 /90	121.2 /90	20.2 /90
A. Carboni	10	80796 min	151.7 /90	80.9 /90	30.3 /90	374.2 /90	121.4 /90	10.1 /90
L. Lucchesi	10	77771 min	101.2 /90	283.3 /90	70.8 /90	394.6 /90	182.1 /90	30.4 /90
A. Bakoune	7	53369 min	153.7 /90	71.7 /90	20.5 /90	266.3 /90	92.2 /90	00 /90
S. Goglichidze	5	74369 min	102.4 /90	82 /90	10.2 /90	266.3 /90	30.7 /90	10.2 /90
See more players · Pro Try Pro for £1, then £9.99 a month unless you cancel · 18+

Monza — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Monza before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Ricardo Mangas n 8	77.6	1.2 4/3	1 5/2	—
S. Birindelli n 8	89.9	0.8 4/2	0.9 5/2	—
E. Kouadio n 8	76.9	1.5 6/4	0.1 1/0	—
Gustavo Varela n 8	84.6	0.5 3/1	0.9 6/1	—
A. Carboni n 8	77	1.3 5/2	0.3 2/0	—
See more players · Pro

Monza — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Monza before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Ricardo Mangas n 8	77.6	2.3 5/3
S. Birindelli n 8	89.9	1.4 7/3
E. Kouadio n 8	76.9	3.7 7/6
Gustavo Varela n 8	84.6	0.4 3/0
A. Carboni n 8	77	2.2 7/6
See more players · Pro

Monza Attacking

Monza — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Gustavo Varela	10	84841 min	111.2 /90	10.1 /90	222.4 /90	141.5 /90	91 /90	101.1 /90
Jay Robinson	8	73583 min	20.3 /90	10.2 /90	121.9 /90	71.1 /90	81.2 /90	91.4 /90
Dany Mota	7	61425 min	10.2 /90	20.4 /90	143 /90	81.7 /90	91.9 /90	61.3 /90
P. Cutrone	7	46321 min	00 /90	20.6 /90	133.6 /90	61.7 /90	92.5 /90	30.8 /90
O. Forson	5	46229 min	10.4 /90	00 /90	31.2 /90	10.4 /90	93.5 /90	31.2 /90
See more players · Pro

Monza — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Monza before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Ricardo Mangas n 8	77.6	0.6 4/0	0.3 2/0
S. Birindelli n 8	89.9	1.3 8/2	0.5 4/0
E. Kouadio n 8	76.9	0.4 3/0	0.4 3/0
Gustavo Varela n 8	84.6	2.1 7/5	1.5 7/3
A. Carboni n 8	77	0.7 4/1	0.3 2/0
See more players · Pro

Monza — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Monza before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Ricardo Mangas n 8	77.6	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
S. Birindelli n 8	89.9	0 0/0	0.3 2/0
E. Kouadio n 8	76.9	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
Gustavo Varela n 8	84.6	1.1 6/2	0.1 1/0
A. Carboni n 8	77	0 0/0	0 0/0
See more players · Pro

Atalanta

Atalanta Goalkeeper

Atalanta — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
M. Carnesecchi	15	901350 min	593.9 /90	191.3 /90	10.1 /90

Atalanta — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atalanta before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
M. Carnesecchi n 8	90	3.4 7/6

Atalanta Defensive

Atalanta — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
L. Bernasconi	12	66795 min	151.7 /90	91 /90	00 /90	202.3 /90	20.2 /90	00 /90
G. Scalvini	11	82899 min	121.2 /90	80.8 /90	70.7 /90	363.6 /90	111.1 /90	00 /90
D. Zappacosta	11	69754 min	202.4 /90	40.5 /90	10.1 /90	313.7 /90	40.5 /90	00 /90
R. Bellanova	9	81726 min	60.7 /90	141.7 /90	30.4 /90	182.2 /90	50.6 /90	10.1 /90
S. Kolašinac	8	55442 min	51 /90	30.6 /90	20.4 /90	112.2 /90	30.6 /90	00 /90
See more players · Pro

Atalanta — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atalanta before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
M. Carnesecchi n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0	—
Éderson n 8	72.5	2.2 6/5	0.8 4/1	—
C. De Ketelaere n 8	71.3	0.8 3/2	0.6 4/0	—
N. Krstović n 8	68.8	1.8 4/3	1.6 5/3	—
L. Bernasconi n 8	74.1	0.2 1/0	0 0/0	—
See more players · Pro

Atalanta — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atalanta before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Éderson n 8	72.5	1.9 6/4
C. De Ketelaere n 8	71.3	0.9 4/2
N. Krstović n 8	68.8	0.8 3/2
L. Bernasconi n 8	74.1	1.7 6/3
N. Zalewski n 8	54	2.3 5/2
See more players · Pro

Atalanta Attacking

Atalanta — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
C. De Ketelaere	14	68955 min	10.1 /90	40.4 /90	141.3 /90	50.5 /90	343.2 /90	212 /90
N. Krstović	14	55767 min	70.8 /90	20.2 /90	333.9 /90	151.8 /90	80.9 /90	70.8 /90
Gianluca Scamacca	11	53585 min	30.5 /90	00 /90	152.3 /90	91.4 /90	71.1 /90	20.3 /90
G. Raspadori	6	56336 min	20.5 /90	10.3 /90	71.9 /90	51.3 /90	41.1 /90	20.5 /90
Éderson	15	781177 min	20.2 /90	00 /90	120.9 /90	80.6 /90	60.5 /90	40.3 /90
See more players · Pro

Atalanta — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atalanta before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
M. Carnesecchi n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Éderson n 8	72.5	1.1 4/2	0.8 3/2
C. De Ketelaere n 8	71.3	2.2 6/4	0.8 4/1
N. Krstović n 8	68.8	3.9 6/6	1.8 6/3
L. Bernasconi n 8	74.1	0.3 2/0	0.3 2/0
See more players · Pro

Atalanta — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atalanta before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
M. Carnesecchi n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Éderson n 8	72.5	0.2 1/0	0 0/0
C. De Ketelaere n 8	71.3	0.2 1/0	0.5 3/0
N. Krstović n 8	68.8	1 4/2	0.3 2/0
L. Bernasconi n 8	74.1	0 0/0	0 0/0
See more players · Pro

The day’s free picks, by email

Every morning at 07:30 UK: the model’s free picks, each with its confidence tier and that tier’s settled record, misses included. No tips, no guarantees, one click to leave.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Monza v Atalanta — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

MonzaLWLLL

Last 5: 1W 0D 4L · 1.8 scored / 2.4 conceded per game

AtalantaLDDLD

Last 5: 0W 3D 2L · 1.4 scored / 2.4 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Monza 0 · 0 draws · Atalanta 6 · 3.5 goals/game

2025-05-04 Monza 0–4 Atalanta
2024-10-30 Atalanta 2–0 Monza
2024-04-21 Monza 1–2 Atalanta
2023-09-02 Atalanta 3–0 Monza
2023-06-04 Atalanta 5–2 Monza
2022-09-05 Monza 0–2 Atalanta

League standing · 2026/27

Monza#18 pos7 pts10 pl-7 GD

Atalanta#13 pos11 pts10 pl-4 GD

Goals per game

Monza scored1.7

Atalanta scored1.6

Monza conceded2.4

Atalanta conceded2

See the full prediction

Pro members unlock all 246 markets for this match — result, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and player props — plus advanced & key match statistics, expected goals and value against the bookmakers.

Expected goals (xG)

Pro

Win probability & value

Pro

Try Pro for £1

then £9.99 a month unless you cancel · 18+

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Monza v Atalanta?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Monza v Atalanta is Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.60 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Atalanta?: In their last 6 meetings, Monza won 0, Atalanta won 6 and there were 0 draws, averaging 3.5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Monza and Atalanta?: Recent form — Monza 1W 0D 4L; Atalanta 0W 3D 2L.

Today’s Boards

Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.

Predictions today Tomorrow BTTS board Over 2.5 board Under 2.5 board Over 1.5 board Home win board Away win board Double chance board

This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 6 Nov 2026, 06:43 UK. How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.