This Matchweek

MonzaNapoli

Monza v Napoli result

Full-time · Monza 1–4 Napoli

Serie A · · Brianteo

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Monza · Napoli · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Monza 1–4 Napoli — Napoli won this Serie A match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
Best price: 1.73 at Betfair
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 68.3% of 515 landed (95% range 64.2–72.2%); it had given them 75.8% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 547 of 851 times (64.3%), against an average rating of 67.6%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said Napoli: 2.49 to 0.97 in expected goals, from 16 shots to 12, ahead on xG from the ninth minute (per-shot expected goals for this match).

The result

Napoli won 4–1 at Brianteo in Serie A on Wednesday 28 October. Monza have scored in 11 consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

It was 1–1 at half-time. The goals — Napoli: Rasmus Højlund (10’, assisted by Giovanni Di Lorenzo), Matteo Politano (48’), Rafa Marín (62’, assisted by Matteo Politano) and Kevin De Bruyne (67’, assisted by Noa Lang); Monza: Gustavo Varela (43’, assisted by Jay Robinson).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s five key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Matteo Politano’s goal on 48 minutes.

What it changes

Monza move down from 14th to 16th (nine league matches played). Monza have scored 16 goals, the eighth-most of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 9 games, ranked per game). Monza have conceded 22 goals, the second-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Napoli move up from ninth to sixth (nine league matches played). Napoli have scored 17 goals, the sixth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 9 games, ranked per game). Napoli have conceded 11 goals, the sixth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Napoli are unbeaten in their last three matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Rafa Marín (Napoli) 8.5, Matteo Politano (Napoli) 8.4 and Gustavo Varela (Monza) 8.1 led the match.

Head-to-head

Napoli are unbeaten in the last four meetings with Monza.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

Monza next host Atalanta on 8 November 2026.

Napoli next host Lazio on 8 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Monza: Monza v Atalanta, Sunday 8 November — the preview. Next for Napoli: Napoli v Lazio, Sunday 8 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Monza 1–4 Napoli · Serie A
  • Venue: Brianteo · Monza
  • Referee: Giovanni Ayroldi
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Monza 1 · draws 1 · Napoli 4 · 2.5 goals/game
  • Recent form: Monza 2W 0D 3L · Napoli 2W 1D 2L

Monza 1–4 Napoli (Serie A): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 7 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.88 / 1.63
Goals
against 1.75 / 1.5 · 4 of the last 5 over 3
over 8 matches
4.88 / 5.13
Corners
against 5.38 / 4.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
6.25 / 6.13
Shots on target
against 4.75 / 4.13 · 5 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.38 / 1.38
Cards
against 1.5 / 1.63 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 24 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 24 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameMonza for / againstLineNapoli for / against
Goals scored
1.88 for · 1.75 against n 8
3our book
1.63 for · 1.5 against n 8
Corners won
4.88 for · 5.38 against n 8
9.5standard
5.13 for · 4.25 against n 8
Shots
14.88 for · 14 against n 8
19.5standard
15.38 for · 16.13 against n 8
Shots on target
6.25 for · 4.75 against n 8
8.5standard
6.13 for · 4.13 against n 8
Fouls committed
10.88 for · 12.25 against n 8
21.5standard
9.75 for · 9.38 against n 8
Cards shown
1.38 for · 1.5 against n 8
3.5standard
1.38 for · 1.63 against n 8

Referee: Giovanni Ayroldi.

Monza

Monza Goalkeeper

Monza — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
D. Thiam590450 min51 /9071.4 /9000 /90
N. Törnqvist490360 min205 /9071.8 /9000 /90
S. Pizzignacco19090 min11 /9044 /9000 /90
Monza — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Monza before kick-off, to 24 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
D. Thiam n 891.1
1.53/1
N. Törnqvist n 490
54/4
S. Pizzignacco n 880.8
3.16/4

Monza Defensive

Monza — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
E. Kouadio1082819 min313.4 /90252.7 /9070.8 /90414.5 /90111.2 /9020.2 /90
A. Carboni983751 min131.6 /9081 /9030.4 /90334 /90121.4 /9010.1 /90
L. Lucchesi876607 min91.3 /90263.9 /9071 /90334.9 /90152.2 /9020.3 /90
A. Bakoune647279 min144.5 /9072.3 /9020.6 /90247.7 /9082.6 /9000 /90
S. Goglichidze378234 min41.5 /9083.1 /9010.4 /90135 /9000 /9000 /90
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Monza — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Monza before kick-off, to 24 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
E. Kouadio n 879.9
1.35/4
00/0
—
Ricardo Mangas n 877.6
0.94/2
1.26/2
—
S. Birindelli n 889.1
0.84/2
0.85/1
Rafa Marín
A. Carboni n 882.6
1.46/2
0.32/0
—
Gustavo Varela n 885
0.95/2
0.74/1
—
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Monza — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Monza before kick-off, to 24 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
E. Kouadio n 879.9
3.47/5
Ricardo Mangas n 877.6
1.45/3
S. Birindelli n 889.1
1.38/2
A. Carboni n 882.6
1.86/5
Gustavo Varela n 885
0.32/0
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Monza Attacking

Monza — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Gustavo Varela885680 min91.2 /9010.1 /90152 /90101.3 /9081.1 /9091.2 /90
Jay Robinson678469 min20.4 /9000 /90112.1 /9061.2 /9051 /9091.7 /90
Dany Mota659354 min10.3 /9020.5 /90143.6 /9082 /9082 /9041 /90
P. Cutrone650302 min00 /9020.6 /90113.3 /9041.2 /9092.7 /9030.9 /90
O. Forson546229 min10.4 /9000 /9031.2 /9010.4 /9093.5 /9031.2 /90
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Monza — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Monza before kick-off, to 24 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
E. Kouadio n 879.9
0.43/0
0.43/0
Ricardo Mangas n 877.6
1.25/1
0.63/1
S. Birindelli n 889.1
1.38/2
0.54/0
A. Carboni n 882.6
0.74/1
0.32/0
Gustavo Varela n 885
27/6
1.37/3
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Monza — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Monza before kick-off, to 24 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
E. Kouadio n 879.9
0.11/0
00/0
Ricardo Mangas n 877.6
0.11/0
0.32/0
S. Birindelli n 889.1
00/0
0.32/0
A. Carboni n 882.6
00/0
00/0
Gustavo Varela n 885
1.26/3
0.11/0
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Napoli

Napoli Goalkeeper

Napoli — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
A. Meret884675 min222.9 /9060.8 /9000 /90
V. Milinković-Savić479315 min92.6 /9041.1 /9000 /90
Napoli — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Napoli before kick-off, to 24 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
A. Meret n 884.4
2.96/5
V. Milinković-Savić n 884.4
3.26/5

Napoli Defensive

Napoli — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Giovanni Di Lorenzo1189980 min191.7 /90100.9 /9020.2 /90444 /9070.6 /9030.3 /90
Amir Rrahmani1090900 min161.6 /9080.8 /9080.8 /90656.5 /9080.8 /9010.1 /90
Rafa Marín1087873 min212.2 /90161.6 /9050.5 /90404.1 /90141.4 /9020.2 /90
L. Spinazzola872576 min60.9 /9010.2 /9010.2 /90101.6 /9040.6 /9000 /90
M. Olivera482326 min102.8 /9051.4 /9000 /90164.4 /9061.7 /9000 /90
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Napoli — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Napoli before kick-off, to 24 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Giovanni Di Lorenzo n 888.8
0.85/1
0.94/2
—
R. Højlund n 872
1.36/2
1.34/3
—
K. De Bruyne n 881.6
1.46/3
1.13/3
—
Amir Rrahmani n 890
0.53/1
0.64/1
—
Rafa Marín n 887.8
1.35/3
0.54/0
S. Birindelli
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Napoli — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Napoli before kick-off, to 24 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Giovanni Di Lorenzo n 888.8
1.37/1
R. Højlund n 872
00/0
K. De Bruyne n 881.6
1.24/2
Amir Rrahmani n 890
1.16/2
Rafa Marín n 887.8
2.38/6
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Napoli Attacking

Napoli — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
R. Højlund1173806 min20.2 /9000 /90182 /9070.8 /9080.9 /9060.7 /90
M. Politano1063628 min20.3 /9030.4 /9091.3 /9081.1 /90131.9 /9050.7 /90
N. Lang855443 min10.2 /9000 /90153 /9071.4 /9061.2 /9051 /90
L. Lucca628166 min00 /9000 /9031.6 /9000 /9031.6 /9000 /90
Alisson Santos555274 min00 /9000 /9082.6 /9041.3 /9051.6 /9051.6 /90
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Napoli — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Napoli before kick-off, to 24 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Giovanni Di Lorenzo n 888.8
0.63/2
0.43/0
R. Højlund n 872
2.27/5
0.64/0
K. De Bruyne n 881.6
1.16/2
0.63/1
Amir Rrahmani n 890
0.94/2
0.31/1
Rafa Marín n 887.8
0.43/0
00/0
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Napoli — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Napoli before kick-off, to 24 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Giovanni Di Lorenzo n 888.8
00/0
00/0
R. Højlund n 872
00/0
00/0
K. De Bruyne n 881.6
0.31/1
0.11/0
Amir Rrahmani n 890
0.11/0
00/0
Rafa Marín n 887.8
00/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
MonzaNapoli
35%Possession65%
1.22Expected goals (xG)1.84
13Shots16
6Shots on target7
4Shots off target5
3Blocked shots4
4Shots inside the box12
2Corners2
1Offsides4
14Fouls6
3Yellow cards0
0Red cards0
3Saves5
334Passes631

Monza Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
A. Bakoune9000001105.5
S. Birindelli9000111006.3
L. Colombo90001003Y6
Ricardo Mangas9000000005.6
Gustavo Varela9010631108
N. Törnqvist9000000005.7
L. Lucchesi7400000006.1
Jay Robinson6901113207
C. Ngonge6000000305.9
Manga Foe Ondoa60003112Y6.5
S. Goglichidze45000001Y5.6
A. Carboni4500000205.4
E. Akinsanmiro3000000105.9
A. Colpani3000100006.2
E. Zeballos2100000106.4
V. Antov1600000105.8

Napoli Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
V. Milinković-Savić9000000008
Giovanni Di Lorenzo9001001007.3
N. Lang9001114107.7
Rafa Marín9010110407.9
S. McTominay9000511007
M. Olivera9000100306.8
R. Højlund8110320007.7
Billy Gilmour7300000306.6
A. Zambo Anguissa6300100006.6
M. Politano6311213008.7
Amir Rrahmani4500000206.2
Luca Marianucci4500001106.8
A. Vergara2700000106.3
K. De Bruyne2710111107.6
S. Lobotka1700000006.3
L. Lucca900100006.6

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Monza v Napoli — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
MonzaLWLWL
Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · 2.2 scored / 2 conceded per game
NapoliWLLWD
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 2.2 scored / 2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Monza 1 · 1 draw · Napoli 4 · 2.5 goals/game
  • 2025-04-19 Monza 0–1 Napoli
  • 2024-09-29 Napoli 2–0 Monza
  • 2024-04-07 Monza 2–4 Napoli
  • 2023-12-29 Napoli 0–0 Monza
  • 2023-05-14 Monza 2–0 Napoli
  • 2022-08-21 Napoli 4–0 Monza
League standing · 2026/27
Monza#18 pos7 pts10 pl-7 GD
Napoli#8 pos14 pts10 pl+4 GD
Goals per game
Monza scored1.7
Napoli scored1.7
Monza conceded2.4
Napoli conceded1.3

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Monza 0.97 xG from 12 shots, Napoli 2.49 from 16. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Rasmus Højlund 60' · 0.41 xGMatteo Politano 17' · 0.40 xGGustavo Varela 47' · 0.15 xGMathías Olivera 22' · 0.14 xGScott McTominay 17' · 0.10 xGScott McTominay 78' · 0.10 xGRasmus Højlund 35' · 0.09 xGScott McTominay 65' · 0.08 xGGustavo Varela 23' · 0.07 xGFranck Zambo 46' · 0.07 xGLorenzo Lucca 83' · 0.05 xGLeonardo Colombo 28' · 0.04 xGManga Foe Ondoa 53' · 0.03 xGScott McTominay 71' · 0.03 xGScott McTominay 70' · 0.03 xGManga Foe Ondoa 18' · 0.03 xGGustavo Varela 27' · 0.02 xGManga Foe Ondoa 26' · 0.02 xGGustavo Varela 45' · 0.02 xGSamuele Birindelli 0' · 0.02 xGGustavo Varela 11' · 0.02 xGAndrea Colpani 60' · 0.01 xGNoa Lang 31' · 0.01 xGGustavo Varela 42' · 0.54 xG · goalKevin De Bruyne 66' · 0.41 xG · goalRafa Marín 61' · 0.37 xG · goalRasmus Højlund 9' · 0.12 xG · goalMatteo Politano 47' · 0.08 xG · goal
Monza (attacking right)Napoli (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
Monza1210.97
Napoli1642.49

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, xG was level: Monza 0.78, Napoli 0.87. At full time, Napoli led on xG, 2.49 to 0.97. The widest gap was 1.52 xG to Napoli, in the 83rd minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)
2.51.200′15′30′45′60′75′90′MinutesCumulative xGGoal - Napoli 9 minGoal - Monza 42 minGoal - Napoli 47 minGoal - Napoli 61 minGoal - Napoli 66 min
Monza 0.97 xGNapoli 2.49 xGdots = goals · 28 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Monza v Napoli?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Monza v Napoli was Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.73 at Betfair).
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Napoli?
In their last 6 meetings, Monza won 1, Napoli won 4 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2.5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Monza and Napoli?
Recent form — Monza 2W 0D 3L; Napoli 2W 1D 2L.

Today’s Boards

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