Spezia v Mantova result
The model’s pre-match pick
Spezia 0–2 Mantova — Mantova won this Serie B – Italy match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Away.
The result
Mantova won 2–0 at Stadio Alberto Picco in Serie B – Italy on Sunday 12 April. Mantova have scored in nine consecutive matches in all competitions.
The goals
Mantova led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — Mantova: D. Bragantini (32’, assisted by T. Maggioni) and N. Buso (72’, assisted by S. Trimboli).
How it turned
Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s two key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with D. Bragantini’s goal on 32 minutes.
The numbers
Expected goals (xG) tell a different story: Spezia, from fewer shots (12 to 13), created the better chances, 2.41 xG to 1.00 (the provider’s expected goals for this match). Context.
Discipline
J. L. Sacchi showed five yellow cards — against 4.1 yellows a game across the last 9 matches refereed (all competitions). The bookings — Spezia: Alessandro Romano (13’) and F. Bandinelli (49’); Mantova: Ali Dembélé (28’), S. Trimboli (45+3’) and Rachid Kouda (79’).
What it changes
Spezia have scored 42 goals, the ninth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 37 games). Spezia have conceded 58 goals, the third-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.
Mantova have scored 45 goals, the ninth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 37 games). Mantova have conceded 52 goals, the eighth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.
Spezia are winless in their last five matches in all competitions.
Who stood out
By TACTIX Impact for this match, P. Beruatto (Spezia) 6.8, D. Bragantini (Mantova) 6.7 and Christian Comotto (Spezia) 5.8 led the match.
Head-to-head
Mantova are unbeaten in the last three meetings with Spezia, every meeting checked.
What the model said
The model’s free pick, Spezia or Mantova (no draw), a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 78% of the time in the last 90 days (4028 of 5167).
Next up
Mantova next travel to Avellino on 21 November 2026.
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
Next for Mantova: Avellino v Mantova, Saturday 21 November — the preview.
The Numbers
- Result: Spezia 0–2 Mantova · Serie B – Italy
- Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco · La Spezia
- Referee: J. L. Sacchi
- Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
- Head-to-head (last 3): Spezia 0 · draws 2 · Mantova 1 · 3.67 goals/game
- Recent form: Spezia 1W 1D 3L · Mantova 3W 1D 1L
Spezia 0–2 Mantova (Serie B – Italy): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →
Key Stats
Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 6 April 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
| Per game | Spezia for / against | Line | Mantova for / against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 1.5 for · 2.13 against n 8 Last 5 | 2.5standard | 1.63 for · 1 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Corners won | 4 for · 3.13 against n 8 Last 5 | 9.5standard | 4.63 for · 4.88 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots | 13.63 for · 13.38 against n 8 Last 5 | 19.5standard | 12.63 for · 11.75 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots on target | 4.63 for · 4.75 against n 8 Last 5 | 8.5standard | 4.13 for · 3.38 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Fouls committed | 15.63 for · 13.75 against n 8 Last 5 | 21.5standard | 17.5 for · 16.5 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Cards shown | 3.13 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.5standard | 2.88 for · 3.75 against n 8 Last 5 |
Referee: J. L. Sacchi.
Spezia
Spezia Defensive
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Aurelio n 8 | 75 | 0.6 | 0.2 | S. Trimboli |
| G. Artistico n 8 | 90 | 1.3 | 2.5 | — |
| A. Matějů n 8 | 71 | 2.4 | 1.6 | S. Cella |
| P. Beruatto n 8 | 71.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | A. Castellini |
| G. Di Serio n 8 | 54.4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | — |
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| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| G. Aurelio n 8 | 75 | 0.3 |
| G. Artistico n 8 | 90 | 0.4 |
| A. Matějů n 8 | 71 | 1.7 |
| P. Beruatto n 8 | 71.8 | 1.3 |
| G. Di Serio n 8 | 54.4 | 0.2 |
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Spezia Attacking
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| G. Aurelio n 8 | 75 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| G. Artistico n 8 | 90 | 2.8 | 1.6 |
| A. Matějů n 8 | 71 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| P. Beruatto n 8 | 71.8 | 0.5 | 0 |
| G. Di Serio n 8 | 54.4 | 1.7 | 1 |
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| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| G. Aurelio n 8 | 75 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| G. Artistico n 8 | 90 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| A. Matějů n 8 | 71 | 0 | 0 |
| P. Beruatto n 8 | 71.8 | 0 | 0 |
| G. Di Serio n 8 | 54.4 | 0.2 | 0 |
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Mantova
Mantova Defensive
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Trimboli n 8 | 89 | 2.5 | 2.7 | G. Aurelio |
| A. Castellini n 8 | 88.4 | 1 | 1.1 | P. Beruatto |
| S. Cella n 8 | 90 | 2.5 | 0.1 | A. Matějů |
| L. Mancuso n 8 | 54 | 1 | 1.3 | — |
| D. Mensah n 8 | 53.3 | 4 | 4.4 | — |
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| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| S. Trimboli n 8 | 89 | 1.1 |
| A. Castellini n 8 | 88.4 | 1.1 |
| S. Cella n 8 | 90 | 0.3 |
| L. Mancuso n 8 | 54 | 0.4 |
| D. Mensah n 8 | 53.3 | 0.4 |
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Mantova Attacking
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| S. Trimboli n 8 | 89 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| A. Castellini n 8 | 88.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| S. Cella n 8 | 90 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| L. Mancuso n 8 | 54 | 1.9 | 1 |
| D. Mensah n 8 | 53.3 | 0.2 | 0 |
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| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| S. Trimboli n 8 | 89 | 0 | 0.1 |
| A. Castellini n 8 | 88.4 | 0 | 0.1 |
| S. Cella n 8 | 90 | 0.1 | 0 |
| L. Mancuso n 8 | 54 | 0.4 | 0 |
| D. Mensah n 8 | 53.3 | 0 | 0 |
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The next free picks, by email
The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.
Match Statistics & Details
| Spezia | Mantova | |
|---|---|---|
| 44% | Possession | 56% |
| 2.41 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.00 |
| 12 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 6 | Shots off target | 2 |
| 3 | Blocked shots | 6 |
| 10 | Shots inside the box | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 0 |
| 1 | Offsides | 2 |
| 21 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 2 | Saves | 3 |
| 304 | Passes | 412 |
| 66% | Pass accuracy | 75% |
Spezia Player Stats
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | SoT | KP | Tkl | Cards | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Matějů | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6.2 |
| M. Ruggero | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.3 |
| P. Hristov | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7.5 |
| P. Beruatto | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7.3 |
| A. Romano | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | Y | 7.3 |
| F. Bandinelli | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | Y | 7 |
| G. Artistico | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.3 |
| C. Comotto | 56 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| D. Mascardi | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.3 |
| G. Aurelio | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.3 |
| G. Di Serio | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.9 |
| L. Sernicola sub | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.2 |
| B. Radunović sub | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.5 |
| G. Lapadula sub | 45 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.3 |
| L. Vignali sub | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.3 |
| V. Vlahović sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.3 |
Mantova Player Stats
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | SoT | KP | Tkl | Cards | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Bardi | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8.2 |
| A. Dembélé | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | Y | 7.2 |
| A. Castellini | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 7.2 |
| S. Cella | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| T. Maggioni | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| S. Trimboli | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | Y | 7.7 |
| R. Kouda | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Y | 7 |
| F. Benaissa-Yahia | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7.2 |
| D. Bragantini | 71 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7.9 |
| F. Ruocco | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.3 |
| D. Mensah | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6.3 |
| L. Mancuso sub | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.9 |
| T. Marras sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6.5 |
| N. Buso sub | 19 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.3 |
Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.
Form, Head-to-Head & Standings
The numbers behind Spezia v Mantova — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
- 2025-11-23 Mantova 4–1 Spezia
- 2025-04-13 Mantova 2–2 Spezia
- 2024-12-26 Spezia 1–1 Mantova
The Full Post-Match Picture
Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.
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Frequently Asked Questions
- What was the model’s pick for Spezia v Mantova?
- TACTIX’s free model pick for Spezia v Mantova was Home or Away.
- What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Mantova?
- In their last 3 meetings, Spezia won 0, Mantova won 1 and there were 2 draws, averaging 3.67 goals per game.
- What is the recent form of Spezia and Mantova?
- Recent form — Spezia 1W 1D 3L; Mantova 3W 1D 1L.
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