Lech Poznan v Aarhus result

Full-time · Lech Poznan 0–3 Aarhus

UEFA Champions League · Wed, 29 Jul 2026 18:00 BST · Stadion Poznan

Updated 12 Aug 2026, 04:30 UK · refreshed continuously

The model’s pre-match pick

Lech Poznan 0–3 Aarhus — Aarhus won this UEFA Champions League match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick

Over 2.5 goals

Best price: 1.63 at Unibet

What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 68.7% of 492 landed (95% range 64.5–72.6%); it had given them 75.8% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

Match report, in numbers

The result

Aarhus won 3–0 at Stadion Poznan in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday 29 July. Aarhus have scored in six consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

Aarhus led 1–0 at half-time. The goals TACTIX’s match events name — Aarhus: T. Bech (32’, assisted by K. Arnstad), K. Arnstad (55’ pen), Frederik Tingager (75’, assisted by Eric Kahl) and Tómas Kristjansson (100’, assisted by T. Bech); Lech Poznan: Filip Jagiełło (95’).

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) had little between the sides: Lech Poznan 0.00, Aarhus 0.00, from 18 shots to 14 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

J. Xhaja showed six yellow cards — against 5.4 yellows a game across the last 5 matches refereed (all competitions). The bookings — Lech Poznan: Antoni Kozubal (40’) and Y. Agnero (105+1’); Aarhus: J. Bogere (45’), Mikael Anderson (86’), Frederik Emmery (91’) and Mouhammade Camara (107’).

What it changes

Lech Poznan sit 21st on three points from two games with a goal difference of 0 (2026/27 so far).

Aarhus sit 21st on three points from two games with a goal difference of 0 (2026/27 so far).

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Kristian Arnstad (Aarhus) 10.3, Frederik Tingager (Aarhus) 8.6 and T. Bech (Aarhus) 7.9 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

Lech Poznan next travel to GKS Katowice on 22 November 2026.

Aarhus next host Lyngby on 22 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Lech Poznan: GKS Katowice v Lech Poznan, Sunday 22 November — the preview. Next for Aarhus: Aarhus v Lyngby, Sunday 22 November — the preview.

The Numbers

Result: Lech Poznan 0–3 Aarhus · UEFA Champions League
Venue: Stadion Poznan · Poznan
Referee: J. Xhaja
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 1): Lech Poznan 1 · draws 0 · Aarhus 0 · 5 goals/game
Recent form: Lech Poznan 2W 3D 0L · Aarhus 3W 1D 1L

Lech Poznan 0–3 Aarhus (UEFA Champions League): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 12 August 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

2.13 / 1.75

Goals

against 0.75 / 1.38 · 3 of the last 5 over 3

over 8 matches

6.5 / 5.38

Corners

against 4.38 / 4.13 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

6.63 / 5.13

Shots on target

against 2.25 / 5.63 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

1.38 / 1.38

Cards

against 2.25 / 2.5 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 25 July 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 25 July 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Lech Poznan for / against	Line	Aarhus for / against
Goals scored	2.13 for · 0.75 against n 8 Last 5	3our book	1.75 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	6.5 for · 4.38 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	5.38 for · 4.13 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	19.25 for · 8.75 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	12.88 for · 15 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	6.63 for · 2.25 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	5.13 for · 5.63 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	10.13 for · 12.63 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	11 for · 16 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	1.38 for · 2.25 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	1.38 for · 2.5 against n 8 Last 5

Lech Poznan

Lech Poznan Goalkeeper

Lech Poznan — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
M. Lis	2	90180 min	31.5 /90	10.5 /90	00 /90

Lech Poznan Defensive

Lech Poznan — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
M. Gurgul	2	90180 min	00 /90	52.5 /90	42 /90	31.5 /90	10.5 /90	00 /90
T. Yegbe	2	90180 min	21 /90	21 /90	21 /90	94.5 /90	00 /90	00 /90
W. Mońka	2	90180 min	00 /90	10.5 /90	10.5 /90	52.5 /90	10.5 /90	00 /90
Joel Pereira	2	53105 min	32.6 /90	10.9 /90	00 /90	54.3 /90	21.7 /90	00 /90
R. Gumny	1	6464 min	00 /90	11.4 /90	11.4 /90	22.8 /90	11.4 /90	00 /90
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Lech Poznan — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lech Poznan before kick-off, to 25 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
A. Kozubal n 8	81.8	1.2 5/3	0.7 4/1	M. Knudsen
M. Gurgul n 8	88.6	0.5 3/1	0.5 3/1	F. Tingager
W. Mońka n 8	90	0.3 2/0	0.5 3/1	E. Kahl
Pablo Rodríguez n 8	61.8	1.6 4/3	2.6 7/4	Kristian Arnstad
M. Ishak n 8	83.1	0.9 5/2	1.5 6/4	—
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Lech Poznan — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lech Poznan before kick-off, to 25 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
A. Kozubal n 8	81.8	1.2 6/2
M. Gurgul n 8	88.6	1 6/1
W. Mońka n 8	90	0.4 2/1
Pablo Rodríguez n 8	61.8	3.5 7/7
M. Ishak n 8	83.1	0.3 2/0
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Lech Poznan Attacking

Lech Poznan — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
M. Ishak	2	79157 min	10.6 /90	00 /90	42.3 /90	21.1 /90	21.1 /90	00 /90
Y. Agnero	2	1938 min	00 /90	00 /90	12.4 /90	12.4 /90	00 /90	00 /90
A. Kozubal	2	90180 min	00 /90	10.5 /90	21 /90	10.5 /90	42 /90	00 /90
Pablo Rodríguez	2	83165 min	00 /90	00 /90	10.5 /90	00 /90	42.2 /90	10.5 /90
P. Wålemark	2	74148 min	21.2 /90	00 /90	42.4 /90	31.8 /90	21.2 /90	00 /90
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Lech Poznan — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lech Poznan before kick-off, to 25 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
A. Kozubal n 8	81.8	1.2 7/2	0.6 4/0
M. Gurgul n 8	88.6	0.8 4/2	0.4 3/0
W. Mońka n 8	90	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
Pablo Rodríguez n 8	61.8	0.9 4/1	0.2 1/0
M. Ishak n 8	83.1	3.2 8/6	1.6 6/2
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Lech Poznan — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lech Poznan before kick-off, to 25 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
M. Gurgul n 8	88.6	0.1 1/0	0.3 2/0
A. Kozubal n 8	81.8	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
W. Mońka n 8	90	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
Pablo Rodríguez n 8	61.8	0 0/0	0 0/0
M. Ishak n 8	83.1	0.5 3/1	0.3 2/0
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Aarhus

Aarhus Goalkeeper

Aarhus — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
J. Hansen	2	64127 min	21.4 /90	21.4 /90	00 /90
M. Hedenstad	1	5050 min	11.8 /90	35.4 /90	00 /90

Aarhus — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aarhus before kick-off, to 25 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
J. Hansen n 8	83.4	3.5 5/3

Aarhus Defensive

Aarhus — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
E. Kahl	2	90180 min	42 /90	10.5 /90	42 /90	94.5 /90	31.5 /90	10.5 /90
F. Tingager	2	90180 min	00 /90	21 /90	21 /90	126 /90	21 /90	00 /90
J. Andersen	2	4692 min	32.9 /90	54.9 /90	00 /90	54.9 /90	22 /90	00 /90
J. Jensen-Abbew	1	7474 min	22.4 /90	11.2 /90	11.2 /90	22.4 /90	22.4 /90	00 /90
Kristian Arnstad	2	90180 min	21 /90	10.5 /90	10.5 /90	73.5 /90	00 /90	00 /90
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Aarhus — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aarhus before kick-off, to 25 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
M. Knudsen n 8	87.6	1.3 5/5	1.3 6/2	A. Kozubal
E. Kahl n 8	89.1	1 4/3	0.8 3/2	W. Mońka
F. Tingager n 8	49.6	0.9 4/0	0.7 3/0	M. Gurgul
Kristian Arnstad n 8	88.5	0.6 2/1	1.1 7/2	Pablo Rodríguez
G. Links n 8	85.1	1.3 7/3	2.5 7/6	—
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Aarhus — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aarhus before kick-off, to 25 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
M. Knudsen n 8	87.6	3.6 8/7
E. Kahl n 8	89.1	2 6/6
Kristian Arnstad n 8	88.5	0.9 4/2
F. Tingager n 8	49.6	0.9 2/1
G. Links n 8	85.1	4.1 8/8
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Aarhus Attacking

Aarhus — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
T. Bech	2	82163 min	00 /90	00 /90	21.1 /90	10.6 /90	00 /90	00 /90
M. Anderson	2	67134 min	00 /90	00 /90	32 /90	00 /90	10.7 /90	10.7 /90
S. Jorgensen	2	51101 min	00 /90	00 /90	10.9 /90	00 /90	00 /90	10.9 /90
Kristian Arnstad	2	90180 min	21 /90	00 /90	31.5 /90	31.5 /90	31.5 /90	21 /90
M. Knudsen	2	90180 min	00 /90	00 /90	10.5 /90	00 /90	00 /90	10.5 /90
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Aarhus — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aarhus before kick-off, to 25 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Kristian Arnstad n 8	88.5	1.5 6/5	1 6/2
F. Tingager n 8	49.6	0.9 4/0	0.5 2/0
E. Kahl n 8	89.1	0.4 3/0	0.1 1/0
M. Knudsen n 8	87.6	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
G. Links n 8	85.1	1.2 7/2	0.7 5/0
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Aarhus — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aarhus before kick-off, to 25 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Kristian Arnstad n 8	88.5	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0
E. Kahl n 8	89.1	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
M. Knudsen n 8	87.6	0 0/0	0 0/0
F. Tingager n 8	49.6	0 0/0	0 0/0
G. Links n 8	85.1	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Lech Poznan		Aarhus
49%	Possession	51%
18	Shots	14
9	Shots on target	6
5	Shots off target	2
4	Blocked shots	6
16	Shots inside the box	9
14	Corners	3
0	Offsides	2
12	Fouls	14
2	Yellow cards	4
0	Red cards	0
2	Saves	8
456	Passes	495
79%	Pass accuracy	80%

Lech Poznan Player Stats

Player	Min	G	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
M. Lis	120	0	0	0	0	0	0	5.6
W. Mońka	120	0	0	0	0	3	0	6.2
T. Yegbe	120	0	0	0	0	0	0	5.9
M. Gurgul	120	0	1	1	0	2	0	6.2
A. Kozubal	120	0	0	0	0	0	Y	5.7
R. Murawski	98	0	0	0	0	4	0	6.6
M. Ishak	88	0	2	1	1	0	0	6.5
P. Wålemark	87	0	2	2	2	0	0	7.9
R. Gumny	81	0	0	0	2	1	0	5.9
Pablo Rodríguez	81	0	1	1	1	0	0	6.5
L. Palma	68	0	3	1	1	0	0	6.3
Allahyar Sayyad sub	52	0	1	1	1	2	0	6.7
Joel Pereira sub	39	0	0	0	2	3	0	7.6
F. Jagiełło sub	39	1	1	1	0	0	0	7.9
D. Håkans sub	33	0	1	0	2	1	0	6.7
Y. Agnero sub	32	0	1	1	0	0	Y	7.3
G. Þórðarson sub	22	0	1	0	0	0	0	6.3

Aarhus Player Stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
M. Hedenstad	120	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10
F. Tingager	120	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	9.2
M. Knudsen	120	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	6.9
Kristian Arnstad	120	1	1	2	1	3	2	0	6.9
T. Bech	120	1	1	1	1	2	0	0	8.5
Frederik Emmery	97	0	0	1	1	1	0	Y	6.9
M. Anderson	97	0	0	1	1	1	2	Y	6.3
E. Kahl	89	0	1	0	0	2	4	0	8
J. Bogere	70	0	0	0	0	0	0	Y	6
J. Jønsson	70	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	6.9
J. Jensen-Abbew	60	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.9
Christian Storch sub	60	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6
R. Carstensen sub	50	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	6.9
S. Tchamche sub	50	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.3
Mouhammade Camara sub	31	0	0	0	0	0	2	Y	6.6
J. Serra sub	23	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	7.3
T. Kristjansson sub	23	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	8.2

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Lech Poznan v Aarhus — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

Lech PoznanDWDWD

Last 5: 2W 3D 0L · 2 scored / 1 conceded per game

AarhusWWWLD

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 2.4 scored / 1.6 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 1

Lech Poznan 1 · 0 draws · Aarhus 0 · 5 goals/game

2026-07-21 Aarhus 1–4 Lech Poznan

Goals per game

Lech Poznan scored2

Aarhus scored2.4

Lech Poznan conceded1

Aarhus conceded1.6

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Lech Poznan v Aarhus?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Lech Poznan v Aarhus was Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.63 at Unibet).
What is the head-to-head record between Lech Poznan and Aarhus?: In their last 1 meetings, Lech Poznan won 1, Aarhus won 0 and there were 0 draws, averaging 5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Lech Poznan and Aarhus?: Recent form — Lech Poznan 2W 3D 0L; Aarhus 3W 1D 1L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 12 Aug 2026, 04:30 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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