Liverpool v Villarreal result

Full-time · Liverpool 4–3 Villarreal

UEFA Champions League · · Anfield

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Liverpool · Villarreal

The model’s pre-match pick

Liverpool 4–3 Villarreal — Liverpool won this UEFA Champions League match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home win.

Free pick
Home win
Best price: 1.62 at Betano
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home win in the last 90 days, 77.8% of 216 landed (95% range 71.8–82.8%); it had given them 75.1% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Liverpool beat Villarreal 4–3 at Anfield in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday 20 October.

The goals

It was 2–2 at half-time. The goals — Villarreal: Georges Mikautadze (4’), Sergi Cardona (29’, assisted by Nathan-Dylan Saliba) and Tanitoluwa Oluwaseyi (87’, assisted by Ayoze Pérez); Liverpool: Alexis Mac Allister (36’, assisted by Konstantinos Tsimikas; 65’, assisted by Rio Ngumoha), R. Araújo (45’, assisted by Rio Ngumoha) and Florian Wirtz (68’, assisted by Cody Gakpo).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s seven key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Alexis Mac Allister’s goal on 65 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Liverpool 2.41, Villarreal 1.62, from 22 shots to 14 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

The bookings — Villarreal: Alberto Moleiro (27’) and S. Mouriño (41’).

What it changes

Liverpool have won their last three matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Alexis Mac Allister (Liverpool) 11.4, Rio Ngumoha (Liverpool) 11.2 and Florian Wirtz (Liverpool) 10.1 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Liverpool to win, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record like every other call. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 77.8% of the time in the last 90 days (168 of 216).

Next up

Liverpool next host Brighton on 25 October 2026.

Villarreal next travel to Valencia on 24 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Liverpool: Liverpool v Brighton, Sunday 25 October — the preview. Next for Villarreal: Valencia v Villarreal, Saturday 24 October — the preview.

The numbers

  • Result: Liverpool 4–3 Villarreal · UEFA Champions League
  • Venue: Anfield · Liverpool
  • Referee: Szymon Marciniak
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 2): Liverpool 2 · draws 0 · Villarreal 0 · 3.5 goals/game
  • Recent form: Liverpool 4W 0D 1L · Villarreal 3W 1D 1L

Liverpool 4–3 Villarreal (UEFA Champions League): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 22 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

2 / 1.75
Goals
against 1.13 / 1.5 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.25
over 8 matches
6 / 6.63
Corners
against 5.13 / 4.63 · 4 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
5.38 / 6
Shots on target
against 3.88 / 3.88 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.13 / 1.75
Cards
against 1.88 / 2.75 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameLiverpool for / againstLineVillarreal for / against
Goals scored
2 for · 1.13 against n 8
3.25our book
1.75 for · 1.5 against n 8
Corners won
6 for · 5.13 against n 8
9.5standard
6.63 for · 4.63 against n 8
Shots
15.25 for · 12 against n 8
19.5standard
16.5 for · 11.5 against n 8
Shots on target
5.38 for · 3.88 against n 8
8.5standard
6 for · 3.88 against n 8
Fouls committed
12.38 for · 9.25 against n 8
21.5standard
10.38 for · 11.75 against n 8
Cards shown
2.13 for · 1.88 against n 8
3.5standard
1.75 for · 2.75 against n 8

Referee: Szymon Marciniak.

Liverpool
Liverpool — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
F. Chiesa n 89.5
3.63/0
2.42/0
—
J. Gomez n 823.5
2.43/2
00/0
—
L. Koumas n 853.3
2.36/4
1.34/2
—
J. McConnell n 835.1
1.94/1
1.93/2
—
Víctor Muñoz n 842.9
1.84/2
1.64/2
—
Liverpool — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Víctor Muñoz n 842.9
2.97/2
1.34/1
B. Barcola n 862.3
2.55/4
1.34/1
F. Wirtz n 876.5
2.46/4
0.62/2
A. Mac Allister n 867.1
2.35/5
0.84/1
A. Isak n 873.3
2.28/5
1.16/1
Liverpool — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
A. Isak n 873.3
0.95/1
0.21/0
C. Gakpo n 871
0.53/0
0.63/1
B. Barcola n 862.3
0.51/1
0.21/0
Jeremie Frimpong n 851.4
0.21/0
0.41/1
A. Mac Allister n 867.1
0.21/0
0.32/0
Liverpool — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Jérémy Jacquet n 880.6
2.87/6
T. Nyoni n 836.4
2.86/2
Jeremie Frimpong n 851.4
2.25/2
J. McConnell n 835.1
2.26/1
C. Gakpo n 871
1.96/4
Liverpool — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
G. Mamardashvili n 886
3.98/5
Alisson Becker n 890
2.14/3
Villarreal
Villarreal — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
N. Saliba n 863.6
2.36/3
1.88/1
—
T. Oluwaseyi n 836.8
2.14/2
0.62/0
—
T. Buchanan n 856.9
26/3
3.28/4
—
Santi Comesaña n 864
1.98/2
1.14/1
—
C. Macia n 819.1
1.82/1
0.61/0
—
Villarreal — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
G. Mikautadze n 845.4
2.55/3
25/3
T. Buchanan n 856.9
2.46/5
1.24/1
T. Oluwaseyi n 836.8
2.45/2
1.22/2
Alberto Moleiro n 867.8
2.37/5
1.34/4
N. Pépé n 867.6
2.27/5
1.57/2
Villarreal — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Ayoze Pérez n 852.4
0.21/0
0.63/0
Alberto Moleiro n 867.8
0.32/0
0.31/1
Gerard Moreno n 843.3
0.31/0
0.31/0
N. Pépé n 867.6
0.32/0
0.21/0
G. Mikautadze n 845.4
0.52/0
00/0
Villarreal — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
C. Macia n 819.1
7.65/3
A. Diatta n 334.7
3.52/1
Carlos Romero n 875.1
2.77/4
A. Freeman n 872.8
2.68/3
S. Mouriño n 865.3
2.45/4
Villarreal — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
P. Gulácsi n 882.4
2.63/3
Luíz Júnior n 890
2.36/3

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
LiverpoolVillarreal
53%Possession47%
2.41Expected goals (xG)1.62
22Shots14
7Shots on target5
8Shots off target2
7Blocked shots7
14Shots inside the box9
7Corners2
2Offsides4
12Fouls10
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
2Saves4
541Passes498

Liverpool player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Alisson Becker9000000006.2
C. Gakpo9001313207.4
R. Gravenberch9000210206.4
A. Mac Allister9020524009.2
K. Tsimikas9001104307.3
V. van Dijk9000101106.5
T. Nyoni8100102306.8
Jérémy Jacquet7400000306.2
Rio Ngumoha7402203008.6
L. Koumas6600000006.4
R. Araújo4510110006.8
F. Wirtz4510422307.7
A. Isak2400200006.6
J. Gomez1600000506.1
B. Barcola1600000106.6
J. McConnell900000005.8

Villarreal player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
P. Gulácsi9000000005.9
Renato Veiga9000000006.2
Pau Navarro9000000305.5
S. Mouriño90001121Y5.6
P. Gueye9000111206.6
Sergi Cardona9010210207
Santi Comesaña7800001005.8
T. Buchanan6000101105.9
G. Mikautadze6010110207.5
Alberto Moleiro54001000Y6.1
T. Oluwaseyi4510211107.2
N. Saliba4501201106.5
J. Foyth3600000005.6
Ayoze Pérez3001203207.3
A. Freeman3000000106.1
Gerard Moreno1200100006.2

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Liverpool v Villarreal — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
LiverpoolWWLWW
Last 5: 4W 0D 1L · 2.4 scored / 1.6 conceded per game
VillarrealWWLWD
Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 1.8 scored / 0.8 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 2
Liverpool 2 · 0 draws · Villarreal 0 · 3.5 goals/game
  • 2022-05-03 Villarreal 2–3 Liverpool
  • 2022-04-27 Liverpool 2–0 Villarreal
League standing · 2026/27
Liverpool#3 pos9 pts3 pl+5 GD
Villarreal#19 pos3 pts3 pl0 GD
Goals per game
Liverpool scored4
Villarreal scored2.67
Liverpool conceded2.33
Villarreal conceded2.67

The full post-match picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Liverpool v Villarreal?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Liverpool v Villarreal was Home win (best price 1.62 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Liverpool and Villarreal?
In their last 2 meetings, Liverpool won 2, Villarreal won 0 and there were 0 draws, averaging 3.5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Liverpool and Villarreal?
Recent form — Liverpool 4W 0D 1L; Villarreal 3W 1D 1L.

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