RB Leipzig v Manchester City prediction

UEFA Champions League · Wed, 04 Nov 2026 20:00 GMT · Red Bull Arena

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 18:18 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: RB Leipzig · Manchester City · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for RB Leipzig v Manchester City, UEFA Champions League on Wed, 04 Nov 2026 20:00 GMT.

Free pick

Over 2.5 goals

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 66.8% of 578 landed (95% range 62.8–70.5%); it had given them 76.2% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

Match preview, in numbers

The match

RB Leipzig host Manchester City in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday 4 November (kick-off 20:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals, a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

12 of RB Leipzig’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (80%).

RB Leipzig have scored in seven consecutive matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

Both teams scored in seven of RB Leipzig’s last 15 results in all competitions (47%). At home, RB Leipzig have six wins, no draws and no defeats in their last 6 home matches in all competitions — 3.00 points per game, scoring 3.50 and conceding 0.17.

11 of Manchester City’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (73%). Both teams scored in eight of Manchester City’s last 15 results in all competitions (53%). Away from home, Manchester City have four wins, no draws and two defeats in their last 6 away matches in all competitions — 2.00 points per game, scoring 1.83 and conceding 1.00.

RB Leipzig have won their last three matches in all competitions. Manchester City are winless in their last three matches in all competitions. RB Leipzig (30th) and Manchester City (10th) are three points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Manchester City the stronger side, 353 rating points above RB Leipzig (Manchester City 1872, RB Leipzig 1519, after at least 57 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

Manchester City are unbeaten in the last four meetings with RB Leipzig. The most recent meeting, on 28 November 2023, finished Manchester City 3–2 RB Leipzig.

Team news

Predicted RB Leipzig XI (4-2-3-1): M. Vandevoordt, W. Orbán, D. Raum, C. Lukeba, R. Baku, N. El Aynaoui, A. Nusa, E. Banzuzi, R. Reitz, B. Gruda, Rômulo — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Antonio Nusa (6.6 per match over 13 appearances, five goals and seven assists) and Brajan Gruda (4.8 per match over 11 appearances, two goals and two assists) have been RB Leipzig’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for RB Leipzig (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Antonio Nusa averages 1.6 key passes per 90 over 1782 minutes, with a key pass in nine of the last 10 appearances. Brajan Gruda averages 2.0 shots per 90 over 677 minutes, with a shot in six of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Manchester City XI (4-2-3-1): G. Donnarumma, R. Dias, A. Khusanov, J. Gvardiol, M. Guéhi, E. Anderson, E. Fernández, R. Cherki, P. Foden, A. Bouaddi, E. Haaland — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Erling Haaland (5.8 per match over 12 appearances, 13 goals) and R. Cherki (4.8 per match over 14 appearances, six goals and three assists) have been Manchester City’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Manchester City (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Erling Haaland averages 3.5 shots per 90 over 1970 minutes, with a shot in 10 of the last 10 appearances. R. Cherki averages 3.2 key passes per 90 over 1367 minutes, with a key pass in 10 of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Wed, 04 Nov 2026 20:00 GMT · UEFA Champions League · Red Bull Arena
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): RB Leipzig 1 · draws 1 · Manchester City 4 · 5 goals/game
Recent form: RB Leipzig 3W 0D 2L · Manchester City 2W 1D 2L

RB Leipzig v Manchester City (UEFA Champions League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 31 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

2.13 / 2.63

Goals

against 1.63 / 1.88 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.75

over 8 matches

4.63 / 6.71

Corners

against 7.38 / 3.43 · 4 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 7 matches

6 / 6.29

Shots on target

against 6.38 / 5.14 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 7 matches

1.38 / 1.29

Cards

against 1.75 / 2.29 · 1 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 7 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 31 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 31 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	RB Leipzig for / against	Line	Manchester City for / against
Goals scored	2.13 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5	3.75our book	2.63 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	4.63 for · 7.38 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	6.71 for · 3.43 against n 7 Last 5
Shots	14.5 for · 14.25 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	18.43 for · 11.29 against n 7 Last 5
Shots on target	6 for · 6.38 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	6.29 for · 5.14 against n 7 Last 5
Fouls committed	11.38 for · 14.5 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	11.14 for · 14.86 against n 7 Last 5
Cards shown	1.38 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	1.29 for · 2.29 against n 7 Last 5

RB Leipzig

RB Leipzig Goalkeeper

RB Leipzig — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Maarten Vandevoordt	11	90990 min	524.7 /90	111 /90	10.1 /90
Ø. Nyland	2	90180 min	10.5 /90	00 /90	00 /90

RB Leipzig — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for RB Leipzig before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Maarten Vandevoordt n 8	90	5.3 7/6
Ø. Nyland n 4	90	1.3 1/1

RB Leipzig Defensive

RB Leipzig — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
W. Orbán	13	901170 min	171.3 /90	161.2 /90	120.9 /90	614.7 /90	110.8 /90	10.1 /90
D. Raum	12	861037 min	171.5 /90	151.3 /90	20.2 /90	221.9 /90	80.7 /90	00 /90
C. Lukeba	10	88883 min	101 /90	202 /90	70.7 /90	242.4 /90	40.4 /90	10.1 /90
R. Baku	10	71711 min	192.4 /90	50.6 /90	50.6 /90	506.3 /90	70.9 /90	00 /90
B. Henrichs	7	49346 min	133.4 /90	51.3 /90	20.5 /90	215.5 /90	51.3 /90	00 /90
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RB Leipzig — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for RB Leipzig before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
W. Orbán n 8	90	0.9 5/2	0.9 5/1	—
A. Nusa n 8	70.9	0.8 4/1	1.3 5/2	—
D. Raum n 8	87.9	0.6 5/0	0.4 2/1	—
E. Banzuzi n 8	72.5	2.8 8/4	1.9 5/4	—
T. Gomis n 8	54	0.8 3/1	1.9 5/3	—
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RB Leipzig — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for RB Leipzig before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
W. Orbán n 8	90	1.9 8/4
A. Nusa n 8	70.9	1.3 5/3
D. Raum n 8	87.9	1.5 6/5
E. Banzuzi n 8	72.5	3.6 8/8
T. Gomis n 8	54	0.2 1/0
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RB Leipzig Attacking

RB Leipzig — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
T. Gomis	12	51617 min	40.6 /90	30.4 /90	192.8 /90	81.2 /90	101.5 /90	213.1 /90
B. Gruda	11	62677 min	20.3 /90	20.3 /90	152 /90	81.1 /90	172.3 /90	415.5 /90
C. Nkunku	9	65586 min	40.6 /90	20.3 /90	111.7 /90	81.2 /90	101.5 /90	40.6 /90
Rômulo	9	63571 min	40.6 /90	00 /90	152.4 /90	91.4 /90	30.5 /90	81.3 /90
J. Bakayoko	3	48144 min	00 /90	00 /90	42.5 /90	10.6 /90	10.6 /90	31.9 /90
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RB Leipzig — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for RB Leipzig before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
W. Orbán n 8	90	0.9 5/2	0.1 1/0
A. Nusa n 8	70.9	2.2 8/4	0.8 3/1
D. Raum n 8	87.9	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
E. Banzuzi n 8	72.5	1.7 4/3	0.8 3/2
T. Gomis n 8	54	2.5 6/4	1.3 4/2
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RB Leipzig — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for RB Leipzig before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
W. Orbán n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
A. Nusa n 8	70.9	0.3 2/0	0.8 4/1
D. Raum n 8	87.9	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
E. Banzuzi n 8	72.5	0.2 1/0	0.3 2/0
T. Gomis n 8	54	0.8 4/0	0 0/0
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Manchester City

Manchester City Goalkeeper

Manchester City — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
G. Donnarumma	13	901170 min	332.5 /90	120.9 /90	00 /90

Manchester City — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Manchester City before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
G. Donnarumma n 8	90	3 6/4

Manchester City Defensive

Manchester City — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Rúben Dias	13	861118 min	100.8 /90	80.6 /90	30.2 /90	453.6 /90	181.4 /90	00 /90
J. Gvardiol	13	74957 min	272.5 /90	151.4 /90	30.3 /90	716.7 /90	141.3 /90	50.5 /90
M. Guéhi	11	81892 min	70.7 /90	90.9 /90	40.4 /90	404 /90	101 /90	10.1 /90
A. Khusanov	10	85851 min	303.2 /90	181.9 /90	30.3 /90	515.4 /90	80.8 /90	10.1 /90
Matheus Nunes	8	76604 min	91.3 /90	40.6 /90	30.4 /90	274 /90	30.4 /90	00 /90
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Manchester City — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Manchester City before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
G. Donnarumma n 8	90	0 0/0	0.1 1/0	—
Rúben Dias n 8	83.5	1.9 5/5	0.1 1/0	—
J. Gvardiol n 8	70.5	1.3 6/2	1.3 4/2	—
R. Cherki n 8	60	0.6 2/1	1.1 4/1	—
E. Haaland n 8	88.8	1.1 3/3	0.8 5/1	—
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Manchester City — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Manchester City before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Rúben Dias n 8	83.5	0.9 4/2
J. Gvardiol n 8	70.5	2.7 5/4
R. Cherki n 8	60	0.9 3/1
E. Haaland n 8	88.8	0.1 1/0
E. Anderson n 8	82.3	2.6 8/6
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Manchester City Attacking

Manchester City — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
E. Haaland	12	861033 min	131.1 /90	00 /90	443.8 /90	242.1 /90	80.7 /90	60.5 /90
R. McAidoo	3	3194 min	11 /90	11 /90	32.9 /90	21.9 /90	21.9 /90	43.8 /90
F. Samba	2	76152 min	21.2 /90	00 /90	42.4 /90	21.2 /90	21.2 /90	00 /90
Omar Marmoush	1	3737 min	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	12.4 /90	00 /90
R. Cherki	13	57747 min	60.7 /90	20.2 /90	192.3 /90	111.3 /90	273.3 /90	151.8 /90
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Manchester City — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Manchester City before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
G. Donnarumma n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Rúben Dias n 8	83.5	0.7 3/1	0.3 1/1
J. Gvardiol n 8	70.5	1.3 4/2	0.6 2/2
R. Cherki n 8	60	2.4 6/4	1.1 5/1
E. Haaland n 8	88.8	3.7 8/8	1.9 8/4
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Manchester City — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Manchester City before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
G. Donnarumma n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Rúben Dias n 8	83.5	0 0/0	0 0/0
J. Gvardiol n 8	70.5	0 0/0	0.3 2/0
R. Cherki n 8	60	0.8 4/0	0 0/0
E. Haaland n 8	88.8	1.3 7/3	0 0/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind RB Leipzig v Manchester City — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

RB LeipzigLLWWW

Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · 2 scored / 2.2 conceded per game

Manchester CityWWLDL

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 2.2 scored / 1.6 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

RB Leipzig 1 · 1 draw · Manchester City 4 · 5 goals/game

2023-11-28 Manchester City 3–2 RB Leipzig
2023-10-04 RB Leipzig 1–3 Manchester City
2023-03-14 Manchester City 7–0 RB Leipzig
2023-02-22 RB Leipzig 1–1 Manchester City
2021-12-07 RB Leipzig 2–1 Manchester City
2021-09-15 Manchester City 6–3 RB Leipzig

League standing · 2026/27

RB Leipzig#30 pos3 pts3 pl-5 GD

Manchester City#10 pos6 pts3 pl+4 GD

Goals per game

RB Leipzig scored1

Manchester City scored3

RB Leipzig conceded2.67

Manchester City conceded1.67

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Expected goals (xG)

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Win probability & value

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win RB Leipzig v Manchester City?: TACTIX’s free model pick for RB Leipzig v Manchester City is Over 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and Manchester City?: In their last 6 meetings, RB Leipzig won 1, Manchester City won 4 and there was 1 draw, averaging 5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of RB Leipzig and Manchester City?: Recent form — RB Leipzig 3W 0D 2L; Manchester City 2W 1D 2L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 31 Oct 2026, 18:18 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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