Atalanta v Kairat Almaty prediction

UEFA Europa Conference League · Thu, 05 Nov 2026 17:45 GMT · New Balance Arena

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 07:18 UK · refreshed continuously

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Atalanta v Kairat Almaty, UEFA Europa Conference League on Thu, 05 Nov 2026 17:45 GMT.

Free pick

Over 2.5 goals

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 66.8% of 578 landed (95% range 62.8–70.5%); it had given them 76.2% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Atalanta host Kairat Almaty in the UEFA Europa Conference League on Thursday 5 November (kick-off 17:45 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.

The key numbers

Atalanta are winless in their last four matches in all competitions. Kairat Almaty are winless in their last six matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

Eight of Atalanta’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in nine of Atalanta’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). At home, Atalanta have four wins, two draws and two defeats in their last 8 home matches in all competitions — 1.75 points per game, scoring 1.75 and conceding 1.25.

Eight of Kairat Almaty’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in seven of Kairat Almaty’s last 15 results in all competitions (47%). Away from home, Kairat Almaty have one win, one draw and six defeats in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 0.50 points per game, scoring 1.00 and conceding 1.75.

Atalanta (15th) and Kairat Almaty (31st) are two points apart, 2026/27 so far.

Team news

Predicted Atalanta XI (4-2-3-1): M. Carnesecchi, D. Zappacosta, T. Kristensen, R. ObriÄ, L. Bernasconi, Éderson, E. Elmas, G. Gaetano, N. Zalewski, C. De Ketelaere, N. Krstović — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Charles De Ketelaere (4.1 per match over 12 appearances, one goal and four assists) and Nikola Krstović (3.6 per match over 12 appearances, six goals and two assists) have been Atalanta’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Atalanta (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Charles De Ketelaere averages 1.1 shots per 90 over 1684 minutes, with a shot in eight of the last 10 appearances. Nikola Krstović averages 3.6 shots per 90 over 991 minutes, with a shot in eight of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Kairat Almaty XI (4-2-3-1): T. Anarbekov, L. Mata, A. Martynovich, A. Shirobokov, E. Tapalov, G. Mendonça, J. Oksanen, A. Mrynskiy, O. Jukkola, M. Gual, Edmilson — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Aleksandr Shirobokov (3.2 per match over four appearances, one assist) and Temirlan Anarbekov (3.1 per match over four appearances) have been Kairat Almaty’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Kairat Almaty (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Temirlan Anarbekov averages 2.2 saves per 90 over 570 minutes, with two or more saves in three of the last six appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Thu, 05 Nov 2026 17:45 GMT · UEFA Europa Conference League · New Balance Arena
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Recent form: Atalanta 1W 2D 2L · Kairat Almaty 0W 1D 4L

Atalanta v Kairat Almaty (UEFA Europa Conference League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 31 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.88 / 0.38

Goals

against 2.13 / 1.88 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

5.38 / 3.83

Corners

against 5.25 / 5.33 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 6 matches

5.38 / 2.83

Shots on target

against 5.75 / 5.33 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 6 matches

1.38 / 2.33

Cards

against 1.63 / 2.17 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 6 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 29 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 29 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Atalanta for / against	Line	Kairat Almaty for / against
Goals scored	1.88 for · 2.13 against n 8 Last 5	3.5our book	0.38 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	5.38 for · 5.25 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	3.83 for · 5.33 against n 6 Last 5
Shots	16.88 for · 16 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	7.83 for · 8.33 against n 6 Last 5
Shots on target	5.38 for · 5.75 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	2.83 for · 5.33 against n 6 Last 5
Fouls committed	10.5 for · 8.63 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	12.2 for · 13.4 against n 5 Last 5
Cards shown	1.38 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	2.33 for · 2.17 against n 6 Last 5

Atalanta

Atalanta Goalkeeper

Atalanta — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
M. Carnesecchi	13	901170 min	554.2 /90	181.4 /90	10.1 /90

Atalanta — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atalanta before kick-off, to 29 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
M. Carnesecchi n 8	90	3.6 8/7

Atalanta Defensive

Atalanta — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
L. Bernasconi	10	63631 min	142 /90	71 /90	00 /90	162.3 /90	10.1 /90	00 /90
R. Bellanova	9	81726 min	60.7 /90	141.7 /90	30.4 /90	182.2 /90	50.6 /90	10.1 /90
G. Scalvini	9	80719 min	101.3 /90	60.8 /90	60.8 /90	283.5 /90	101.3 /90	00 /90
D. Zappacosta	9	74662 min	182.4 /90	20.3 /90	10.1 /90	273.7 /90	40.5 /90	00 /90
S. Kolašinac	8	55442 min	51 /90	30.6 /90	20.4 /90	112.2 /90	30.6 /90	00 /90
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Atalanta — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atalanta before kick-off, to 29 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
M. Carnesecchi n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0	—
Éderson n 8	81.6	1.9 6/5	0.8 4/1	—
C. De Ketelaere n 8	78.5	0.9 4/2	0.6 4/0	—
N. Krstović n 8	63	1.6 3/2	1.6 4/3	—
G. Gaetano n 8	64.8	1 3/3	1 3/2	—
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Atalanta — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atalanta before kick-off, to 29 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Éderson n 8	81.6	1.5 6/3
C. De Ketelaere n 8	78.5	0.9 4/2
N. Krstović n 8	63	0.9 3/2
G. Gaetano n 8	64.8	1.2 7/0
L. Samardžić n 8	47.9	1.9 5/2
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Atalanta Attacking

Atalanta — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
C. De Ketelaere	12	69833 min	10.1 /90	40.4 /90	101.1 /90	40.4 /90	303.2 /90	171.8 /90
N. Krstović	12	55654 min	60.8 /90	20.3 /90	253.4 /90	121.7 /90	71 /90	60.8 /90
Gianluca Scamacca	10	52518 min	30.5 /90	00 /90	142.4 /90	81.4 /90	71.2 /90	20.3 /90
J. Rowe	6	67403 min	00 /90	00 /90	81.8 /90	30.7 /90	71.6 /90	71.6 /90
G. Raspadori	6	56336 min	20.5 /90	10.3 /90	71.9 /90	51.3 /90	41.1 /90	20.5 /90
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Atalanta — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atalanta before kick-off, to 29 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
M. Carnesecchi n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Éderson n 8	81.6	0.8 3/2	0.6 2/2
C. De Ketelaere n 8	78.5	1.4 5/3	0.6 3/1
N. Krstović n 8	63	3.2 6/4	1.6 5/2
G. Gaetano n 8	64.8	1 4/2	0.2 1/0
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Atalanta — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atalanta before kick-off, to 29 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
M. Carnesecchi n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Éderson n 8	81.6	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
C. De Ketelaere n 8	78.5	0.1 1/0	0.6 4/0
N. Krstović n 8	63	0.9 3/2	0.4 2/0
G. Gaetano n 8	64.8	0.2 1/0	0 0/0
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Kairat Almaty

Kairat Almaty Goalkeeper

Kairat Almaty — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
T. Anarbekov	3	90270 min	93 /90	72.3 /90	10.3 /90

Kairat Almaty — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Kairat Almaty before kick-off, to 29 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
T. Anarbekov n 8	90	4.8 6/5

Kairat Almaty Defensive

Kairat Almaty — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Luís Mata	3	82245 min	10.4 /90	20.7 /90	00 /90	31.1 /90	00 /90	00 /90
A. Shirobokov	3	79238 min	31.1 /90	93.4 /90	10.4 /90	93.4 /90	31.1 /90	00 /90
Aleksandr Martynovich	2	90180 min	42 /90	84 /90	10.5 /90	115.5 /90	42 /90	10.5 /90
E. Tapalov	2	90180 min	52.5 /90	52.5 /90	21 /90	94.5 /90	63 /90	21 /90
Damir Kasabulat	2	4589 min	22 /90	00 /90	00 /90	22 /90	11 /90	11 /90
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Kairat Almaty — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Kairat Almaty before kick-off, to 29 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
T. Anarbekov n 8	90	0 0/0	0.3 2/0	—
A. Mrynskiy n 8	88.6	0.8 6/0	1.4 5/4	—
Gustavo Mendonça n 3	86.3	0.7 2/0	1.4 1/1	—
J. Oksanen n 3	81.7	1.5 2/2	0.7 1/1	—
Luís Mata n 8	84.4	0.7 4/1	0.3 2/0	—
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Kairat Almaty — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Kairat Almaty before kick-off, to 29 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Gustavo Mendonça n 3	86.3	3.5 3/2
A. Mrynskiy n 8	88.6	1.8 6/4
J. Oksanen n 3	81.7	2.2 2/1
Luís Mata n 8	84.4	1.7 6/3
Marc Gual n 3	79.7	1.5 2/1
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Kairat Almaty Attacking

Kairat Almaty — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Edmilson	3	48144 min	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	53.1 /90	00 /90
Ismail Bekbolat	3	2987 min	11 /90	00 /90	11 /90	11 /90	11 /90	00 /90
A. Mrynskiy	3	86259 min	00 /90	00 /90	10.3 /90	00 /90	41.4 /90	10.3 /90
Gustavo Mendonça	3	86259 min	00 /90	00 /90	10.3 /90	00 /90	20.7 /90	10.3 /90
J. Oksanen	3	82245 min	00 /90	00 /90	10.4 /90	10.4 /90	51.8 /90	00 /90
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Kairat Almaty — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Kairat Almaty before kick-off, to 29 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
T. Anarbekov n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
A. Mrynskiy n 8	88.6	0.3 2/0	0 0/0
Gustavo Mendonça n 3	86.3	0.3 1/0	0 0/0
J. Oksanen n 3	81.7	0.4 1/0	0.4 1/0
Luís Mata n 8	84.4	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
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Kairat Almaty — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Kairat Almaty before kick-off, to 29 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
T. Anarbekov n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
A. Mrynskiy n 8	88.6	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
Gustavo Mendonça n 3	86.3	0 0/0	0 0/0
Luís Mata n 8	84.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
J. Oksanen n 3	81.7	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Atalanta v Kairat Almaty — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

AtalantaWLLDD

Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · 2.2 scored / 2.4 conceded per game

Kairat AlmatyLLLDL

Last 5: 0W 1D 4L · 0.4 scored / 2.6 conceded per game

League standing · 2026/27

Atalanta#15 pos3 pts2 pl0 GD

Kairat Almaty#31 pos1 pts2 pl-4 GD

Goals per game

Atalanta scored1.5

Kairat Almaty scored1

Atalanta conceded1.5

Kairat Almaty conceded3

See the full prediction

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Expected goals (xG)

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Atalanta v Kairat Almaty?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Atalanta v Kairat Almaty is Over 2.5 goals.
What is the recent form of Atalanta and Kairat Almaty?: Recent form — Atalanta 1W 2D 2L; Kairat Almaty 0W 1D 4L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 31 Oct 2026, 07:18 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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