CeljeFC Lugano

Celje v FC Lugano result

Full-time · Celje 2–4 FC Lugano

UEFA Europa Conference League · · Stadion Z'dežele

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Celje · FC Lugano

The model’s pre-match pick

Celje 2–4 FC Lugano — FC Lugano won this UEFA Europa Conference League match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 68.7% of 505 landed (95% range 64.5–72.6%); it had given them 75.8% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

FC Lugano won 4–2 at Stadion Z'dežele in the UEFA Europa Conference League on Thursday 14 August. Celje have scored in 13 consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

It was 1–1 at half-time. The goals — FC Lugano: Anto Grgic (13’ pen), Antonios Papadopoulos (69’), Renato Steffen (81’, assisted by Daniel Dos Santos) and Ezgjan Alioski (85’ pen); Celje: Franko Kovačević (22’, assisted by Mario Kvesić) and Mario Kvesić (67’, assisted by Milot Avdyli).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s six key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Renato Steffen’s goal on 81 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) had little between the sides: Celje 0.00, FC Lugano 0.00, from 22 shots to 15 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

Juan Martinez Munuera, Spain showed four yellow cards — against 3.9 yellows a game across the last 12 matches refereed (all competitions). The bookings — Celje: Ž. Karničnik (59’); FC Lugano: Renato Steffen (58’), Anto Grgic (62’) and Uran Bislimi (74’).

What it changes

Celje have scored 26 goals, the 10th-most of the 90 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 14 games, ranked per game). Celje have conceded 19 goals, the 34th-fewest of the 90 clubs.

FC Lugano have scored four goals, the second-most (shared) of the 90 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 2 games, ranked per game). FC Lugano have conceded seven goals, the fourth-most (shared) of the 90 clubs.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Mario Kvesić (Celje) 11.4, Antonios Papadopoulos (FC Lugano) 8.4 and Renato Steffen (FC Lugano) 7.1 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

Celje next travel to Ferencvarosi TC on 26 November 2026.

FC Lugano next host Grasshoppers on 21 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Celje: Ferencvarosi TC v Celje, Thursday 26 November — the preview. Next for FC Lugano: FC Lugano v Grasshoppers, Saturday 21 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Celje 2–4 FC Lugano · UEFA Europa Conference League
  • Venue: Stadion Z'dežele · Celje
  • Referee: Juan Martinez Munuera, Spain
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 3): Celje 2 · draws 0 · FC Lugano 1 · 5 goals/game
  • Recent form: Celje 2W 2D 1L · FC Lugano 1W 0D 4L

Celje 2–4 FC Lugano (UEFA Europa Conference League): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

2.25 / 0.75
Goals
against 2 / 1.75 · 4 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
3.33 / 3.25
Corners
against 3 / 4 · 0 of the last 1 over 9.5
over 3 matches
6 / 3.75
Shots on target
against 3.67 / 6.5 · 1 of the last 1 over 8.5
over 3 matches
0.67 / 2.5
Cards
against 3 / 0.75 · 0 of the last 1 over 3.5
over 3 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 10 August 2025. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 10 August 2025. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameCelje for / againstLineFC Lugano for / against
Goals scored
2.25 for · 2 against n 8
2.5standard
0.75 for · 1.75 against n 8
Corners won
3.33 for · 3 against n 3
9.5standard
3.25 for · 4 against n 4
Shots
13.33 for · 11.67 against n 3
19.5standard
11.75 for · 16.25 against n 4
Shots on target
6 for · 3.67 against n 3
8.5standard
3.75 for · 6.5 against n 4
Fouls committed
11.67 for · 16 against n 3
21.5standard
13.5 for · 12 against n 4
Cards shown
0.67 for · 3 against n 3
3.5standard
2.5 for · 0.75 against n 4

Celje

Celje Goalkeeper

Celje — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Žan-Luk Leban19090 min44 /9000 /9000 /90

Celje Defensive

Celje — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
A. Tutyškinas19090 min33 /9000 /9011 /9055 /9011 /9000 /90
Juanjo Nieto19090 min55 /9022 /9011 /9077 /9022 /9000 /90
Ł. Bejger17979 min22.3 /9000 /9011.1 /9033.4 /9000 /9000 /90
M. Kvesić19090 min22 /9000 /9011 /9088 /9011 /9000 /90
Mark Zabukovnik19090 min22 /9011 /9022 /9033 /9011 /9000 /90
See more players · Pro

Try Pro for £1, then £9.99 a month unless you cancel · 18+

Celje — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Celje before kick-off, to 10 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Ž. Karničnik n 890
1.66/3
0.54/0
A. El Wafi
Juanjo Nieto n 888.1
1.46/5
2.87/5
A. El Wafi
Mark Zabukovnik n 888.8
16/2
0.96/1
A. Grgic
M. Kvesić n 870.3
14/2
0.53/0
A. Grgic
Ł. Bejger n 478.8
1.43/1
0.31/0
—
Celje — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Celje before kick-off, to 10 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Juanjo Nieto n 888.1
2.47/6
Ž. Karničnik n 890
26/5
Mark Zabukovnik n 888.8
0.64/1
M. Kvesić n 870.3
0.63/1
Ł. Bejger n 478.8
0.92/1

Celje Attacking

Celje — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
D. Šturm19090 min11 /9000 /9022 /9011 /9044 /9044 /90
F. Kovačević19090 min22 /9000 /9055 /9044 /9000 /9000 /90
M. Avdyli19090 min00 /9000 /9022 /9011 /9000 /9022 /90
M. Kvesić19090 min11 /9000 /9033 /9033 /9022 /9055 /90
Mark Zabukovnik19090 min11 /9000 /9011 /9011 /9000 /9000 /90
See more players · Pro
Celje — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Celje before kick-off, to 10 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
M. Kvesić n 870.3
1.85/4
0.62/1
Mark Zabukovnik n 888.8
0.32/0
0.32/0
Juanjo Nieto n 888.1
0.31/1
00/0
Ž. Karničnik n 890
0.11/0
00/0
Ł. Bejger n 478.8
00/0
00/0
Celje — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Celje before kick-off, to 10 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Mark Zabukovnik n 888.8
0.11/0
0.11/0
M. Kvesić n 870.3
0.21/0
00/0
Juanjo Nieto n 888.1
00/0
0.11/0
Ž. Karničnik n 890
00/0
00/0
Ł. Bejger n 478.8
00/0
00/0

FC Lugano

FC Lugano Goalkeeper

FC Lugano — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
A. Saipi390270 min93 /90113.7 /9000 /90
FC Lugano — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for FC Lugano before kick-off, to 10 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
A. Saipi n 886.1
2.54/3

FC Lugano Defensive

FC Lugano — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
A. El Wafi380240 min41.5 /9031.1 /9020.8 /90197.1 /9072.6 /9010.4 /90
L. Mai375225 min83.2 /9031.2 /9041.6 /90176.8 /9031.2 /9010.4 /90
E. Alioski370210 min10.4 /9020.9 /9000 /90166.9 /9000 /9000 /90
A. Papadopoulos290180 min63 /9021 /9010.5 /90115.5 /9010.5 /9000 /90
Z. Brault-Guillard257114 min21.6 /9021.6 /9000 /9032.4 /9010.8 /9010.8 /90
See more players · Pro
FC Lugano — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for FC Lugano before kick-off, to 10 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
A. Saipi n 886.1
00/0
0.32/0
—
A. El Wafi n 873.4
1.56/2
1.14/3
Juanjo Nieto
A. Grgic n 879.8
1.45/3
1.15/3
M. Kvesić
L. Mai n 884.4
0.96/1
0.75/0
—
K. Behrens n 370
3.43/2
0.92/0
—
See more players · Pro
FC Lugano — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for FC Lugano before kick-off, to 10 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
A. El Wafi n 873.4
1.47/2
L. Mai n 884.4
3.27/6
A. Grgic n 879.8
2.16/3
E. Alioski n 370
0.41/0
K. Behrens n 370
00/0
See more players · Pro

FC Lugano Attacking

FC Lugano — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
K. Behrens370210 min00 /9000 /9031.3 /9020.9 /9041.7 /9000 /90
Mattia Bottani350151 min00 /9000 /9021.2 /9010.6 /9021.2 /9021.2 /90
G. Koutsias259118 min00 /9000 /9032.3 /9010.8 /9000 /9000 /90
E. Pihlstrom13030 min00 /9000 /9026 /9000 /9000 /9013 /90
A. Grgic375225 min00 /9010.4 /9010.4 /9010.4 /9020.8 /9010.4 /90
See more players · Pro
FC Lugano — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for FC Lugano before kick-off, to 10 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
A. Saipi n 886.1
00/0
00/0
A. El Wafi n 873.4
00/0
00/0
L. Mai n 884.4
0.43/0
0.32/0
A. Grgic n 879.8
0.32/0
0.32/0
K. Behrens n 370
1.32/1
0.92/0
See more players · Pro
FC Lugano — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for FC Lugano before kick-off, to 10 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
A. Saipi n 886.1
00/0
00/0
A. El Wafi n 873.4
00/0
00/0
A. Grgic n 879.8
0.11/0
0.11/0
L. Mai n 884.4
00/0
00/0
E. Alioski n 370
00/0
00/0
See more players · Pro

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
CeljeFC Lugano
53%Possession47%
22Shots15
5Shots on target6
9Shots off target2
8Blocked shots7
13Shots inside the box10
2Corners2
2Offsides1
17Fouls14
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
2Saves3
404Passes352
89%Pass accuracy86%

Celje Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Žan-Luk Leban9000000006
D. Vukliševič9000200006.3
A. Tutyškinas9000000006.2
Mark Zabukovnik9000001006.5
M. Avdyli9001313106.7
F. Kovačević9010222007.2
M. Kvesić8211315209.5
N. Iosifov7800210006.5
D. Šturm7800102307
Juanjo Nieto7000001006.2
Ž. Karničnik70001000Y6.5
M. Boben sub2100000006.2
Papa Mustapha Daniel sub2100000006.7
A. Chidi sub1300001106.7
I. Vidović sub1300000006.3
D. Hrka sub900000006.2

FC Lugano Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
A. Saipi9000000006.7
A. Papadopoulos9010111208.7
A. El Wafi9000110006.9
R. Steffen90102212Y8
A. Grgic90101122Y7.6
E. Alioski9010111207.2
G. Koutsias7800001006.6
Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud6400001106.2
E. Pihlstrom6400100307
A. Duville-Parsemain5500001006.5
D. Kelvin4500000106.5
Z. Brault-Guillard sub4500000106.7
Daniel Dos Santos sub3601001106.7
U. Bislimi sub27010031Y7.2
H. Mahou sub2700101107.2
K. Behrens sub1300000006.6

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Celje v FC Lugano — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
CeljeWDDLW
Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · 2.6 scored / 1.6 conceded per game
FC LuganoLLLLW
Last 5: 1W 0D 4L · 0.8 scored / 2.6 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 3
Celje 2 · 0 draws · FC Lugano 1 · 5 goals/game
  • 2025-08-07 FC Lugano 0–5 Celje
  • 2025-03-13 FC Lugano 5–4 Celje
  • 2025-03-06 Celje 1–0 FC Lugano
League standing · 2025/26
Last recorded position — not updated during the season.
Celje#13 pos10 pts6 pl+1 GD
FC LuganoNot in this league table
Goals per game
Celje scored1.33
FC Lugano scored0.8
Celje conceded1.17
FC Lugano conceded2.6

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

Try Pro for £1

then £9.99 a month unless you cancel · 18+

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Celje v FC Lugano?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Celje v FC Lugano was Over 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Celje and FC Lugano?
In their last 3 meetings, Celje won 2, FC Lugano won 1 and there were 0 draws, averaging 5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Celje and FC Lugano?
Recent form — Celje 2W 2D 1L; FC Lugano 1W 0D 4L.

Today’s Boards

Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.

Predictions todayTomorrowBTTS boardOver 2.5 boardUnder 2.5 boardOver 1.5 boardHome win boardAway win boardDouble chance board
Share this prediction: X · Facebook · WhatsApp · Telegram

This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.

Unlock all 246 predictions, advanced stats & the model v the market with ProTry Pro for £1 then £9.99 a month unless you cancel · 18+