FC Lugano v Kauno Žalgiris prediction

UEFA Europa Conference League · Thu, 05 Nov 2026 20:00 GMT · AIL Arena

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 18:18 UK · refreshed continuously

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for FC Lugano v Kauno Žalgiris, UEFA Europa Conference League on Thu, 05 Nov 2026 20:00 GMT.

Free pick

Over 2.5 goals

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 66.8% of 578 landed (95% range 62.8–70.5%); it had given them 76.2% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

Match preview, in numbers

The match

FC Lugano host Kauno Žalgiris in the UEFA Europa Conference League on Thursday 5 November (kick-off 20:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.

The key numbers

12 of FC Lugano’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (80%).

FC Lugano are unbeaten in at least their last 15 matches in all competitions. FC Lugano have scored in at least 15 consecutive matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

Both teams scored in 10 of FC Lugano’s last 15 results in all competitions (67%). At home, FC Lugano have seven wins, one draw and no defeats in their last 8 home matches in all competitions — 2.75 points per game, scoring 2.88 and conceding 0.75.

Seven of Kauno Žalgiris’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (47%). Both teams scored in seven of Kauno Žalgiris’s last 15 results in all competitions (47%). Away from home, Kauno Žalgiris have two wins, two draws and four defeats in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 1.00 points per game, scoring 0.75 and conceding 2.25.

FC Lugano (second) and Kauno Žalgiris (36th) are six points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have FC Lugano the stronger side, 548 rating points above Kauno Žalgiris (FC Lugano 1886, Kauno Žalgiris 1338, after at least 16 rated matches each).

Team news

Predicted FC Lugano XI (3-4-2-1): D. von Ballmoos, L. Mai, H. Delcroix, A. Papadopoulos, A. Grgic, Y. Cimignani, B. Karimov, D. Dos Santos, U. Bislimi, M. Zanotti, D. Moncada — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Kevin Behrens (4.9 per match over 12 appearances, nine goals and two assists) and Anto Grgic (4.0 per match over 19 appearances, two goals and four assists) have been FC Lugano’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for FC Lugano (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Kevin Behrens averages 3.4 shots per 90 over 719 minutes, with a shot in eight of the last 10 appearances. Anto Grgic averages 2.0 key passes per 90 over 1594 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Kauno Žalgiris XI (4-1-4-1): T. Svedkauskas, N. Iyobosa Edokpolor, A. Tolordava, J. Moutachy, A. Hernandez, A. Kalik, F. Ourega, G. Sirgedas, L. Ribeiro, Y. Karashima, R. Oliveira — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Joris Moutachy (4.1 per match over three appearances, one assist) and Anton Tolordava (2.5 per match over three appearances) have been Kauno Žalgiris’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Kauno Žalgiris (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Joris Moutachy averages 1.0 tackles per 90 over 270 minutes.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Thu, 05 Nov 2026 20:00 GMT · UEFA Europa Conference League · AIL Arena
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Recent form: FC Lugano 5W 0D 0L · Kauno Žalgiris 1W 0D 4L

FC Lugano v Kauno Žalgiris (UEFA Europa Conference League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 31 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

3.5 / 0.5

Goals

against 1.25 / 2.25 · 5 of the last 5 over 3.75

over 8 matches

4.5 / 2.6

Corners

against 5.63 / 7.6 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 5 matches

6.25 / 2.4

Shots on target

against 5.25 / 6.4 · 5 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 5 matches

3.38 / 2.6

Cards

against 2.38 / 1 · 5 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 5 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 25 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 25 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	FC Lugano for / against	Line	Kauno Žalgiris for / against
Goals scored	3.5 for · 1.25 against n 8 Last 5	3.75our book	0.5 for · 2.25 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	4.5 for · 5.63 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	2.6 for · 7.6 against n 5 Last 5
Shots	17.38 for · 15.75 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	5.4 for · 17.8 against n 5 Last 5
Shots on target	6.25 for · 5.25 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	2.4 for · 6.4 against n 5 Last 5
Fouls committed	12.75 for · 12.13 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	13.2 for · 9.8 against n 5 Last 5
Cards shown	3.38 for · 2.38 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	2.6 for · 1 against n 5 Last 5

FC Lugano

FC Lugano Goalkeeper

FC Lugano — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
D. von Ballmoos	18	881583 min	553.1 /90	140.8 /90	00 /90
F. Gebhardt	2	68135 min	42.7 /90	10.7 /90	00 /90

FC Lugano — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for FC Lugano before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
D. von Ballmoos n 8	84.4	4 7/6

FC Lugano Defensive

FC Lugano — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
A. Papadopoulos	18	861548 min	271.6 /90	281.6 /90	70.4 /90	764.4 /90	251.5 /90	30.2 /90
L. Mai	17	841426 min	251.6 /90	291.8 /90	90.6 /90	684.3 /90	181.1 /90	30.2 /90
M. Zanotti	16	651040 min	262.3 /90	80.7 /90	10.1 /90	645.5 /90	282.4 /90	50.4 /90
H. Delcroix	12	891063 min	161.4 /90	141.2 /90	50.4 /90	484.1 /90	80.7 /90	00 /90
Joel Bichsel	6	83495 min	91.6 /90	71.3 /90	30.5 /90	356.4 /90	71.3 /90	00 /90
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FC Lugano — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for FC Lugano before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
A. Grgic n 8	88.9	0.6 4/1	0.6 3/2	—
Y. Cimignani n 8	78	0.7 3/1	0.4 3/0	—
Daniel Dos Santos n 8	76.1	1 6/1	2.1 8/4	—
D. von Ballmoos n 8	84.4	0 0/0	0 0/0	—
A. Papadopoulos n 8	90	0.9 4/2	0.8 5/1	—
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FC Lugano — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for FC Lugano before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
A. Grgic n 8	88.9	1.1 5/2
Y. Cimignani n 8	78	1.4 6/3
Daniel Dos Santos n 8	76.1	1.5 6/3
A. Papadopoulos n 8	90	1.8 6/5
U. Bislimi n 8	85.9	2.1 8/6
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FC Lugano Attacking

FC Lugano — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
D. Moncada	17	45772 min	70.8 /90	20.2 /90	313.6 /90	111.3 /90	91 /90	101.2 /90
R. Steffen	15	691037 min	20.2 /90	40.3 /90	232 /90	70.6 /90	373.2 /90	80.7 /90
E. Pihlstrom	13	51663 min	40.5 /90	00 /90	192.6 /90	101.4 /90	40.5 /90	131.8 /90
K. Behrens	12	60719 min	91.1 /90	20.3 /90	273.4 /90	141.8 /90	111.4 /90	50.6 /90
A. Ajeti	9	38344 min	61.6 /90	00 /90	133.4 /90	102.6 /90	30.8 /90	20.5 /90
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FC Lugano — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for FC Lugano before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
A. Grgic n 8	88.9	1.4 7/3	0.5 4/0
Y. Cimignani n 8	78	1.4 5/3	0.4 2/1
Daniel Dos Santos n 8	76.1	2.2 7/4	0.9 4/1
D. von Ballmoos n 8	84.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
A. Papadopoulos n 8	90	1.3 4/3	0.3 2/0
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FC Lugano — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for FC Lugano before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
A. Grgic n 8	88.9	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
Y. Cimignani n 8	78	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0
Daniel Dos Santos n 8	76.1	0.4 2/1	0.3 2/0
D. von Ballmoos n 8	84.4	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
A. Papadopoulos n 8	90	0 0/0	0.4 3/0
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Kauno Žalgiris

Kauno Žalgiris Goalkeeper

Kauno Žalgiris — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
T. Svedkauskas	3	90270 min	93 /90	82.7 /90	00 /90

Kauno Žalgiris — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Kauno Žalgiris before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
T. Svedkauskas n 3	90	3 2/2

Kauno Žalgiris Defensive

Kauno Žalgiris — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
J. Moutachy	3	90270 min	31 /90	41.3 /90	00 /90	155 /90	00 /90	00 /90
A. Tolordava	3	86259 min	62.1 /90	20.7 /90	31 /90	134.5 /90	10.3 /90	00 /90
N. Iyobosa Edokpolor	2	90180 min	10.5 /90	00 /90	31.5 /90	63 /90	21 /90	10.5 /90
A. Hernandez	2	68135 min	10.7 /90	10.7 /90	10.7 /90	32 /90	10.7 /90	10.7 /90
Rokas Lekiatas	2	4590 min	11 /90	00 /90	00 /90	22 /90	22 /90	00 /90
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Kauno Žalgiris — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Kauno Žalgiris before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
T. Svedkauskas n 3	90	0 0/0	0 0/0	—
J. Moutachy n 3	90	0 0/0	2 2/2	—
A. Tolordava n 3	86.3	0.3 1/0	0.3 1/0	—
F. Ourega n 3	62.3	1 2/0	1.9 2/1	—
Vykintas Slivka n 3	54.7	0.5 1/0	0 0/0	—

Kauno Žalgiris — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Kauno Žalgiris before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
J. Moutachy n 3	90	1 2/1
A. Tolordava n 3	86.3	2.1 2/2
F. Ourega n 3	62.3	1.4 1/1
Vykintas Slivka n 3	54.7	1.6 1/1

Kauno Žalgiris Attacking

Kauno Žalgiris — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Renan Oliveira	2	70139 min	10.6 /90	00 /90	21.3 /90	10.6 /90	10.6 /90	21.3 /90
L. Kreković	2	4590 min	00 /90	00 /90	11 /90	11 /90	00 /90	22 /90
M. Burba	2	3060 min	00 /90	00 /90	11.5 /90	00 /90	11.5 /90	00 /90
F. Ourega	3	62187 min	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	21 /90
Vykintas Slivka	3	55164 min	21.1 /90	00 /90	10.5 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90
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Kauno Žalgiris — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Kauno Žalgiris before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+
T. Svedkauskas n 3	90	0 0/0
J. Moutachy n 3	90	0 0/0
A. Tolordava n 3	86.3	0.3 1/0
F. Ourega n 3	62.3	0 0/0
Vykintas Slivka n 3	54.7	0.5 1/0

Kauno Žalgiris — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Kauno Žalgiris before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
J. Moutachy n 3	90	0 0/0	0.3 1/0
T. Svedkauskas n 3	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
A. Tolordava n 3	86.3	0 0/0	0 0/0
F. Ourega n 3	62.3	0 0/0	0 0/0
Vykintas Slivka n 3	54.7	1.1 1/1	0 0/0

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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind FC Lugano v Kauno Žalgiris — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

FC LuganoWWWWW

Last 5: 5W 0D 0L · 3.8 scored / 1.2 conceded per game

Kauno ŽalgirisLLWLL

Last 5: 1W 0D 4L · 0.6 scored / 2.6 conceded per game

League standing · 2026/27

FC Lugano#2 pos6 pts2 pl+4 GD

Kauno Žalgiris#36 pos0 pts2 pl-7 GD

Goals per game

FC Lugano scored4

Kauno Žalgiris scored0.5

FC Lugano conceded2

Kauno Žalgiris conceded4

See the full prediction

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Expected goals (xG)

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Win probability & value

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win FC Lugano v Kauno Žalgiris?: TACTIX’s free model pick for FC Lugano v Kauno Žalgiris is Over 2.5 goals.
What is the recent form of FC Lugano and Kauno Žalgiris?: Recent form — FC Lugano 5W 0D 0L; Kauno Žalgiris 1W 0D 4L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 31 Oct 2026, 18:18 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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