Lillestrom v Plzen prediction

UEFA Europa League · Thu, 05 Nov 2026 17:45 GMT

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 15:18 UK · refreshed continuously

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Lillestrom v Plzen, UEFA Europa League on Thu, 05 Nov 2026 17:45 GMT.

Free pick

Over 2.5 goals

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 66.8% of 578 landed (95% range 62.8–70.5%); it had given them 76.2% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Lillestrom host Plzen in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 5 November (kick-off 17:45 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.

Form and the table

Nine of Lillestrom’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in nine of Lillestrom’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). At home, Lillestrom have four wins, one draw and four defeats in their last 9 home matches in all competitions — 1.44 points per game, scoring 1.44 and conceding 2.22.

Eight of Plzen’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in eight of Plzen’s last 15 results in all competitions (53%). Away from home, Plzen have two wins, three draws and two defeats in their last 7 away matches in all competitions — 1.29 points per game, scoring 1.00 and conceding 1.29.

Plzen have lost their last three matches in all competitions. Lillestrom (31st) and Plzen (33rd) are one point apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Plzen the stronger side, 115 rating points above Lillestrom (Plzen 1517, Lillestrom 1402, after at least seven rated matches each).

Team news

Predicted Lillestrom XI (4-3-3): P. Dahlberg, R. Gabrielsen, S. Kristiansen, L. Ranger, S. Foss, F. Ottosson, Y. Ibrahimaj, G. Nyheim, T. Lehne Olsen, F. Vá, F. Gulbrandsen — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Felix Vá (5.4 per match over 27 appearances, eight goals and six assists) and Lars Ranger (4.8 per match over 24 appearances, two goals and two assists) have been Lillestrom’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Lillestrom (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Felix Vá averages 1.7 key passes per 90 over 2224 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances. Lars Ranger averages 3.6 tackles per 90 over 1971 minutes, with a tackle in 10 of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Plzen XI (4-2-2-2): F. Wiegele, S. Jr., C. Souaré, D. Vavro, T. Paliscak, A. Memić, P. Hrošovský, L. Červ, S. PirgiÄ, C. Kabongo, D. Višinský — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Sampson Kargeoh Dweh Jr. (3.9 per match over three appearances) and Amar Memić (2.5 per match over three appearances) have been Plzen’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Plzen (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Amar Memić averages 0.7 key passes per 90 over 771 minutes, with a key pass in four of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Thu, 05 Nov 2026 17:45 GMT · UEFA Europa League
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Recent form: Lillestrom 3W 1D 1L · Plzen 1W 0D 4L

Lillestrom v Plzen (UEFA Europa League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 31 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.38 / 1.25

Goals

against 2.13 / 1.75 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.25

over 8 matches

4.86 / 3.5

Corners

against 5.14 / 3.33 · 1 of the last 4 over 9.5

over 6 matches

4.71 / 4.83

Shots on target

against 7.29 / 6.17 · 4 of the last 4 over 8.5

over 6 matches

1.43 / 2

Cards

against 2.14 / 2.17 · 2 of the last 4 over 3.5

over 6 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 28 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 28 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Lillestrom for / against	Line	Plzen for / against
Goals scored	1.38 for · 2.13 against n 8 Last 5	3.25our book	1.25 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	4.86 for · 5.14 against n 7 Last 5	9.5standard	3.5 for · 3.33 against n 6 Last 5
Shots	14.14 for · 18 against n 7 Last 5	19.5standard	12.33 for · 10.67 against n 6 Last 5
Shots on target	4.71 for · 7.29 against n 7 Last 5	8.5standard	4.83 for · 6.17 against n 6 Last 5
Fouls committed	10.29 for · 11.57 against n 7 Last 5	21.5standard	12.67 for · 9.83 against n 6 Last 5
Cards shown	1.43 for · 2.14 against n 7 Last 5	3.5standard	2 for · 2.17 against n 6 Last 5

Lillestrom

Lillestrom Goalkeeper

Lillestrom — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Pontus Dahlberg	26	902340 min	1064.1 /90	261 /90	00 /90
Stephan Hagerup	1	9090 min	22 /90	00 /90	00 /90

Lillestrom — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lillestrom before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Pontus Dahlberg n 8	90	4.5 7/5

Lillestrom Defensive

Lillestrom — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Lars Ranger	24	821971 min	793.6 /90	211 /90	80.4 /90	1747.9 /90	271.2 /90	20.1 /90
Ruben Gabrielsen	22	901980 min	241.1 /90	301.4 /90	120.5 /90	773.5 /90	110.5 /90	30.1 /90
Frederik Elkær	16	701126 min	252 /90	80.6 /90	20.2 /90	453.6 /90	131 /90	30.2 /90
Sturla Ottesen	15	721079 min	211.8 /90	181.5 /90	50.4 /90	594.9 /90	110.9 /90	00 /90
Sander Moen Foss	13	871125 min	100.8 /90	110.9 /90	121 /90	393.1 /90	40.3 /90	00 /90
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Lillestrom — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lillestrom before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Felix Vá n 8	85.5	0.9 4/1	2.5 8/5	—
Pontus Dahlberg n 8	90	0.1 1/0	0.6 4/1	—
Ylldren Ibrahimaj n 8	86.1	0.7 4/1	0.5 4/0	—
Lars Ranger n 8	75	1.1 5/1	2.4 7/4	—
Ruben Gabrielsen n 8	90	0.9 5/2	0.4 3/0	—
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Lillestrom — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lillestrom before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Felix Vá n 8	85.5	2.6 8/5
Ylldren Ibrahimaj n 8	86.1	1.3 5/3
Lars Ranger n 8	75	4.2 8/7
Ruben Gabrielsen n 8	90	1.5 6/4
Gustav Kjolstad Nyheim n 8	77.1	2.5 8/4
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Lillestrom Attacking

Lillestrom — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
T. Lehne Olsen	20	661314 min	80.5 /90	10.1 /90	392.7 /90	181.2 /90	90.6 /90	50.3 /90
F. Gulbrandsen	14	44615 min	30.4 /90	10.1 /90	142 /90	91.3 /90	50.7 /90	40.6 /90
Kparobo Arierhi	5	42209 min	00 /90	00 /90	62.6 /90	20.9 /90	00 /90	20.9 /90
G. Nordh	3	1648 min	00 /90	11.9 /90	00 /90	00 /90	11.9 /90	00 /90
Felix Vá	27	822224 min	80.3 /90	60.2 /90	331.3 /90	150.6 /90	431.7 /90	371.5 /90
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Lillestrom — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lillestrom before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Felix Vá n 8	85.5	1.7 7/4	0.5 2/1
Pontus Dahlberg n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Ylldren Ibrahimaj n 8	86.1	0.9 4/3	0.3 2/0
Lars Ranger n 8	75	2.1 5/4	0 0/0
Ruben Gabrielsen n 8	90	0.5 4/0	0.1 1/0
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Lillestrom — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lillestrom before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Felix Vá n 8	85.5	0.4 2/1	0.1 1/0
Pontus Dahlberg n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Ylldren Ibrahimaj n 8	86.1	0 0/0	0 0/0
Lars Ranger n 8	75	0 0/0	0.2 1/0
Ruben Gabrielsen n 8	90	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
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Plzen

Plzen Goalkeeper

Plzen — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
F. Wiegele	2	90180 min	115.5 /90	–	00 /90
D. Ťapaj	1	9090 min	44 /90	–	00 /90

Plzen — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Plzen before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
F. Wiegele n 8	90	4.6 7/7

Plzen Defensive

Plzen — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Sampson Kargeoh Dweh Jr.	3	75225 min	62.4 /90	62.4 /90	00 /90	166.4 /90	52 /90	00 /90
C. Souaré	2	90180 min	42 /90	21 /90	00 /90	84 /90	42 /90	00 /90
D. Vavro	2	90180 min	31.5 /90	31.5 /90	10.5 /90	94.5 /90	10.5 /90	00 /90
T. Paliscak	2	82164 min	52.7 /90	21.1 /90	00 /90	94.9 /90	21.1 /90	00 /90
A. Gabriel	2	58116 min	21.6 /90	10.8 /90	21.6 /90	118.5 /90	32.3 /90	00 /90
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Plzen — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Plzen before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
A. Memić n 8	85.3	0.8 6/0	0.8 4/1	—
Sampson Kargeoh Dweh Jr. n 8	84.4	1.9 8/4	0.5 4/0	—
S. PirgiÄ n 3	70	2.6 3/1	3 3/1	—
P. Hrošovský n 8	80.8	1.1 6/2	1.1 4/2	—
A. Sojka n 5	55.2	0.3 1/0	0.7 1/1	—
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Plzen — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Plzen before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
A. Memić n 8	85.3	1.5 5/3
Sampson Kargeoh Dweh Jr. n 8	84.4	2.9 8/7
S. PirgiÄ n 3	70	1.7 2/1
P. Hrošovský n 8	80.8	1.4 6/4
A. Sojka n 5	55.2	0.7 2/0
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Plzen Attacking

Plzen — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
B. Faal	3	2368 min	00 /90	00 /90	22.6 /90	00 /90	00 /90	11.3 /90
C. Kabongo	2	71141 min	10.6 /90	00 /90	63.8 /90	21.3 /90	10.6 /90	00 /90
D. Višinský	2	53105 min	00 /90	00 /90	21.7 /90	00 /90	00 /90	21.7 /90
Samson Lawal	2	3875 min	00 /90	00 /90	22.4 /90	00 /90	11.2 /90	56 /90
P. Adu	1	6464 min	00 /90	00 /90	45.6 /90	11.4 /90	00 /90	00 /90
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Plzen — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Plzen before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
A. Memić n 8	85.3	1.8 7/5	0.5 3/1
Sampson Kargeoh Dweh Jr. n 8	84.4	1.2 5/2	0.5 3/1
S. PirgiÄ n 3	70	0.9 2/0	0 0/0
P. Hrošovský n 8	80.8	0.8 5/1	0.1 1/0
A. Sojka n 5	55.2	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Plzen — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Plzen before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
A. Memić n 8	85.3	0 0/0	0 0/0
Sampson Kargeoh Dweh Jr. n 8	84.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
S. PirgiÄ n 3	70	0 0/0	0 0/0
P. Hrošovský n 8	80.8	0 0/0	0 0/0
A. Sojka n 5	55.2	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Lillestrom v Plzen — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

LillestromDWLWW

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 1.6 scored / 2 conceded per game

PlzenLWLLL

Last 5: 1W 0D 4L · 1.4 scored / 2.2 conceded per game

League standing · 2026/27

Lillestrom#31 pos1 pts3 pl-7 GD

Plzen#33 pos0 pts3 pl-5 GD

Goals per game

Lillestrom scored0.67

Plzen scored0.67

Lillestrom conceded3

Plzen conceded2.33

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Expected goals (xG)

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Win probability & value

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Lillestrom v Plzen?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Lillestrom v Plzen is Over 2.5 goals.
What is the recent form of Lillestrom and Plzen?: Recent form — Lillestrom 3W 1D 1L; Plzen 1W 0D 4L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 31 Oct 2026, 15:18 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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