Real Sociedad v Lyon prediction

UEFA Europa League · Thu, 05 Nov 2026 17:45 GMT · Anoeta

Updated 1 Nov 2026, 20:21 UK · refreshed continuously

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Real Sociedad v Lyon, UEFA Europa League on Thu, 05 Nov 2026 17:45 GMT.

Free pick

Over 2.5 goals

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 67% of 578 landed (95% range 63–70.7%); it had given them 76.1% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Real Sociedad host Lyon in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 5 November (kick-off 17:45 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.

The key numbers

Real Sociedad have scored in seven consecutive matches in all competitions. Real Sociedad are unbeaten in their last six matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

11 of Real Sociedad’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (73%). Both teams scored in 11 of Real Sociedad’s last 15 results in all competitions (73%). At home, Real Sociedad have three wins, one draw and three defeats in their last 7 home matches in all competitions — 1.43 points per game, scoring 1.57 and conceding 1.86.

Nine of Lyon’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in eight of Lyon’s last 15 results in all competitions (53%). Away from home, Lyon have two wins, two draws and three defeats in their last 7 away matches in all competitions — 1.14 points per game, scoring 0.86 and conceding 1.29.

Real Sociedad (14th) and Lyon (12th) are two points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Real Sociedad the stronger side, 76 rating points above Lyon (Real Sociedad 1817, Lyon 1741, after at least 45 rated matches each).

Team news

Predicted Real Sociedad XI (4-4-2): Á. Remiro, J. Martín, S. Gómez, M. Sarr, Zubeldia, J. Gorrotxategi, G. Guedes, C. Soler, B. Turrientes, M. Oyarzabal, O. Óskarsson — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Unai Marrero (4.1 per match over four appearances) and Sergio Gómez (3.5 per match over 14 appearances, three goals) have been Real Sociedad’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Real Sociedad (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Unai Marrero averages 3.8 saves per 90 over 360 minutes. Sergio Gómez averages 1.9 tackles per 90 over 1150 minutes, with a tackle in eight of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Lyon XI (4-3-3): D. Greif, Z. Athekame, F. Bacher, Abner, M. Niakhaté, C. Tolisso, T. Tessmann, M. Bidstrup, K. Nakamura, E. Nuamah, J. Duranville — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Zachary Athekame (4.7 per match over 11 appearances, two goals and three assists) and Corentin Tolisso (4.4 per match over 16 appearances, three goals and five assists) have been Lyon’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Lyon (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Zachary Athekame averages 2.7 tackles per 90 over 1215 minutes, with a tackle in seven of the last 10 appearances. Corentin Tolisso averages 1.9 key passes per 90 over 1157 minutes, with a key pass in five of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Thu, 05 Nov 2026 17:45 GMT · UEFA Europa League · Anoeta
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Recent form: Real Sociedad 4W 1D 0L · Lyon 3W 0D 2L

Real Sociedad v Lyon (UEFA Europa League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 1 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

2.63 / 1.75

Goals

against 1.63 / 1.38 · 3 of the last 5 over 3

over 8 matches

5.38 / 4.25

Corners

against 4.63 / 6.75 · 1 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

4.88 / 5.5

Shots on target

against 4.38 / 5.63 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

2.13 / 1.38

Cards

against 2 / 2.13 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 1 November 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 1 November 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Real Sociedad for / against	Line	Lyon for / against
Goals scored	2.63 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5	3our book	1.75 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	5.38 for · 4.63 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	4.25 for · 6.75 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	14.63 for · 15 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	12 for · 14 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	4.88 for · 4.38 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	5.5 for · 5.63 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	11.88 for · 10.5 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	10.25 for · 12 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	2.13 for · 2 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	1.38 for · 2.13 against n 8 Last 5

Real Sociedad

Real Sociedad Goalkeeper

Real Sociedad — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Álex Remiro	9	90810 min	343.8 /90	161.8 /90	00 /90
Unai Marrero	4	90360 min	153.8 /90	20.5 /90	00 /90

Real Sociedad — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Real Sociedad before kick-off, to 1 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Álex Remiro n 8	90	3.5 7/4
Unai Marrero n 8	90	3.9 6/4

Real Sociedad Defensive

Real Sociedad — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Sergio Gómez	13	821060 min	221.9 /90	121 /90	40.3 /90	413.5 /90	30.3 /90	10.1 /90
Jon Martín	11	90990 min	252.3 /90	141.3 /90	90.8 /90	746.7 /90	121.1 /90	20.2 /90
Zubeldia	9	69623 min	172.5 /90	81.2 /90	10.1 /90	314.5 /90	71 /90	20.3 /90
M. Sarr	8	80643 min	121.7 /90	101.4 /90	40.6 /90	263.6 /90	91.3 /90	30.4 /90
J. Aramburu	8	78625 min	233.3 /90	162.3 /90	20.3 /90	557.9 /90	253.6 /90	30.4 /90
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Real Sociedad — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Real Sociedad before kick-off, to 1 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Sergio Gómez n 8	78.5	0 0/0	0.6 3/1	—
Mikel Oyarzabal n 8	71.8	0.9 4/2	1.4 7/2	—
L. Sučić n 8	72.1	0.3 2/0	0.3 2/0	—
Jon Martín n 8	90	1.4 5/3	1 5/2	—
Y. Herrera n 8	59.4	2.8 6/5	1.5 6/2	—
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Real Sociedad — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Real Sociedad before kick-off, to 1 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Sergio Gómez n 8	78.5	1.9 6/4
Mikel Oyarzabal n 8	71.8	0.9 5/1
L. Sučić n 8	72.1	0.9 2/2
Jon Martín n 8	90	2.1 6/6
Y. Herrera n 8	59.4	3.4 6/4
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Real Sociedad Attacking

Real Sociedad — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Mikel Oyarzabal	13	70912 min	20.2 /90	50.5 /90	181.8 /90	90.9 /90	151.5 /90	80.8 /90
O. Óskarsson	9	66593 min	40.6 /90	00 /90	203 /90	101.5 /90	30.5 /90	10.2 /90
Alex Garcia	4	25101 min	00 /90	00 /90	10.9 /90	10.9 /90	21.8 /90	10.9 /90
L. Sučić	12	72861 min	50.5 /90	00 /90	171.8 /90	90.9 /90	121.3 /90	101 /90
Y. Herrera	11	58641 min	10.1 /90	00 /90	71 /90	20.3 /90	40.6 /90	20.3 /90
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Real Sociedad — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Real Sociedad before kick-off, to 1 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Sergio Gómez n 8	78.5	0.6 3/1	0.6 3/1
Mikel Oyarzabal n 8	71.8	2 7/3	0.8 3/1
L. Sučić n 8	72.1	1.9 7/3	1.1 5/2
Jon Martín n 8	90	0.8 4/2	0.3 2/0
Y. Herrera n 8	59.4	1.3 4/2	0.4 2/0
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Real Sociedad — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Real Sociedad before kick-off, to 1 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Sergio Gómez n 8	78.5	0.4 2/1	0 0/0
Mikel Oyarzabal n 8	71.8	0.3 1/1	0.5 1/1
L. Sučić n 8	72.1	0.6 3/1	0 0/0
Jon Martín n 8	90	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
Y. Herrera n 8	59.4	0.2 1/0	0 0/0
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Lyon

Lyon Goalkeeper

Lyon — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
D. Greif	13	901174 min	463.5 /90	110.8 /90	00 /90
R. Descamps	3	90270 min	82.7 /90	20.7 /90	00 /90

Lyon — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lyon before kick-off, to 1 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
D. Greif n 8	90	3.9 8/5
R. Descamps n 8	90	2.6 6/4

Lyon Defensive

Lyon — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Abner	12	891062 min	80.7 /90	90.8 /90	20.2 /90	171.4 /90	110.9 /90	20.2 /90
M. Niakhaté	12	83994 min	90.8 /90	141.3 /90	60.5 /90	333 /90	201.8 /90	30.3 /90
F. Bacher	12	76911 min	111.1 /90	60.6 /90	20.2 /90	333.3 /90	101 /90	10.1 /90
Zachary Athekame	11	84928 min	333.2 /90	70.7 /90	10.1 /90	535.1 /90	111.1 /90	10.1 /90
R. Kluivert	8	89709 min	162 /90	91.1 /90	40.5 /90	374.7 /90	141.8 /90	00 /90
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Lyon — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lyon before kick-off, to 1 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
C. Tolisso n 8	63.5	1.2 4/2	2.1 7/3	—
T. Morton n 8	78.8	0.6 3/1	1.3 4/3	—
D. Greif n 8	90	0 0/0	0.5 2/1	—
Ernest Nuamah n 8	68.5	1 4/1	1.5 7/1	—
K. Boudache n 8	43.3	0.5 2/0	3.1 5/3	—
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Lyon — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lyon before kick-off, to 1 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
C. Tolisso n 8	63.5	1.2 5/1
T. Morton n 8	78.8	1.3 5/4
Ernest Nuamah n 8	68.5	0.2 1/0
K. Boudache n 8	43.3	1.3 5/0
Abner n 8	88.9	0.4 2/1
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Lyon Attacking

Lyon — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Ernest Nuamah	13	66856 min	60.6 /90	10.1 /90	222.3 /90	121.3 /90	121.3 /90	202.1 /90
K. Boudache	13	43558 min	00 /90	00 /90	132.1 /90	50.8 /90	81.3 /90	81.3 /90
Loïs Openda	10	82823 min	20.2 /90	10.1 /90	232.5 /90	131.4 /90	101.1 /90	101.1 /90
Keito Nakamura	6	68405 min	10.2 /90	30.7 /90	71.6 /90	40.9 /90	163.6 /90	81.8 /90
M. Fofana	6	56335 min	20.5 /90	00 /90	113 /90	102.7 /90	41.1 /90	51.3 /90
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Lyon — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lyon before kick-off, to 1 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
C. Tolisso n 8	63.5	1.4 5/2	1.1 4/2
T. Morton n 8	78.8	0.4 3/0	0.1 1/0
D. Greif n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Ernest Nuamah n 8	68.5	2.6 6/4	1.6 5/3
K. Boudache n 8	43.3	1.8 6/1	0.8 2/1
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Lyon — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lyon before kick-off, to 1 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
C. Tolisso n 8	63.5	0.5 3/0	0.4 2/0
T. Morton n 8	78.8	0 0/0	0 0/0
D. Greif n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Ernest Nuamah n 8	68.5	0.8 4/1	0.2 1/0
K. Boudache n 8	43.3	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Real Sociedad v Lyon — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

Real SociedadWDWWW

Last 5: 4W 1D 0L · 3.4 scored / 1.2 conceded per game

LyonWWLLW

Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · 1.4 scored / 1.6 conceded per game

League standing · 2026/27

Real Sociedad#14 pos4 pts3 pl+5 GD

Lyon#12 pos6 pts3 pl-1 GD

Goals per game

Real Sociedad scored2.67

Lyon scored1.67

Real Sociedad conceded1

Lyon conceded2

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Expected goals (xG)

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Real Sociedad v Lyon?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Real Sociedad v Lyon is Over 2.5 goals.
What is the recent form of Real Sociedad and Lyon?: Recent form — Real Sociedad 4W 1D 0L; Lyon 3W 0D 2L.

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