Bulgaria v Iceland prediction

UEFA Nations League · Fri, 13 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT · Stadion Hristo Botev

Updated 11 Nov 2026, 13:29 UK · refreshed continuously

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home offsides over 0.5 the free pick for Bulgaria v Iceland, UEFA Nations League on Fri, 13 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT.

Free pick

Home offsides over 0.5

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Bulgaria host Iceland in the UEFA Nations League on Friday 13 November (kick-off 19:45 UK); the model’s free pick is Bulgaria offsides over 0.5, a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

Iceland are unbeaten in their last four matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

10 of Bulgaria’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (67%). Both teams scored in six of Bulgaria’s last 15 results in all competitions (40%). At home, Bulgaria have one win, two draws and four defeats in their last 7 home matches in all competitions — 0.71 points per game, scoring 0.86 and conceding 2.14.

10 of Iceland’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (67%). Both teams scored in eight of Iceland’s last 15 results in all competitions (53%). Away from home, Iceland have three wins, one draw and four defeats in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 1.25 points per game, scoring 1.25 and conceding 1.25.

Iceland have kept a clean sheet in their last three matches in all competitions. Bulgaria (third) and Iceland (first) are four points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Iceland the stronger side, 144 rating points above Bulgaria (Iceland 1511, Bulgaria 1367, after at least 26 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 3 October 2026, finished Iceland 3–0 Bulgaria.

Team news

Predicted Bulgaria XI (4-2-3-1): D. Naumov, S. Velkov, K. Dimitrov, D. Velkovski, I. Turitsov, I. Gruev, A. Kraev, G. Rusev, P. Panayotov, M. Minchev, A. Iliev — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, D. Naumov (4.5 per match over four appearances) and D. Velkovski (4.1 per match over three appearances, one assist) have been Bulgaria’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Bulgaria (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), D. Naumov averages 4.0 saves per 90 over 360 minutes. D. Velkovski averages 3.3 tackles per 90 over 270 minutes.

Predicted Iceland XI (4-4-2): H. Valdimarsson, V. Palsson, D. L. Gretarsson, S. Þórðarson, H. Magnússon, Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson, H. Haraldsson, G. Sigurðsson, M. Anderson, O. Óskarsson, A. Guðjohnsen — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Orri Óskarsson (5.0 per match over six appearances, five goals and two assists) and Hákon Valdimarsson (4.3 per match over five appearances) have been Iceland’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Iceland (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Orri Óskarsson averages 2.8 shots per 90 over 1298 minutes, with a shot in nine of the last 10 appearances. Hákon Valdimarsson averages 2.7 saves per 90 over 630 minutes, with two or more saves in four of the last seven appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Fri, 13 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT · UEFA Nations League · Stadion Hristo Botev
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 1): Bulgaria 0 · draws 0 · Iceland 1 · 3 goals/game
Recent form: Bulgaria 2W 1D 2L · Iceland 2W 2D 1L

Bulgaria v Iceland (UEFA Nations League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 11 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

0.75 / 1.75

Goals

against 2.25 / 1.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

3.38 / 5.38

Corners

against 7 / 3.88 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

3 / 4.25

Shots on target

against 6.25 / 4.38 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

2 / 1.63

Cards

against 1.63 / 2.5 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 6 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 6 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Bulgaria for / against	Line	Iceland for / against
Goals scored	0.75 for · 2.25 against n 8 Last 5	2.5our book	1.75 for · 1.25 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	3.38 for · 7 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	5.38 for · 3.88 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	8.63 for · 17 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	11.75 for · 10.5 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	3 for · 6.25 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	4.25 for · 4.38 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	10.5 for · 12.5 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	11 for · 12.75 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	2 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	1.63 for · 2.5 against n 8 Last 5

Bulgaria

Bulgaria Goalkeeper

Bulgaria — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
D. Naumov	4	90360 min	164 /90	51.3 /90	10.3 /90

Bulgaria — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bulgaria before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
D. Naumov n 5	90	4.2 4/4

Bulgaria Defensive

Bulgaria — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
D. Velkovski	3	90270 min	103.3 /90	62 /90	00 /90	144.7 /90	51.7 /90	20.7 /90
K. Dimitrov	3	90270 min	31 /90	20.7 /90	31 /90	165.3 /90	10.3 /90	10.3 /90
Stefan Velkov	3	90270 min	62 /90	31 /90	20.7 /90	206.7 /90	62 /90	10.3 /90
I. Turitsov	3	84253 min	51.8 /90	72.5 /90	00 /90	155.3 /90	00 /90	00 /90
Emil Tsenov	3	64193 min	31.4 /90	10.5 /90	10.5 /90	73.3 /90	20.9 /90	10.5 /90
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Bulgaria — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bulgaria before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
D. Naumov n 5	90	0 0/0	0.4 2/0	—
Ilia Gruev n 8	79.9	0.6 2/2	0.8 5/1	—
P. Panayotov n 4	32.5	3.5 3/2	0 0/0	—
D. Velkovski n 4	90	1.5 4/1	0.8 3/0	—
Stefan Velkov n 4	90	1.5 2/1	0.8 2/1	—
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Bulgaria — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bulgaria before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Ilia Gruev n 8	79.9	1.1 7/1
P. Panayotov n 4	32.5	2.1 3/0
D. Velkovski n 4	90	2.5 3/3
Stefan Velkov n 4	90	1.5 3/1
K. Dimitrov n 8	88	0.8 4/2
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Bulgaria Attacking

Bulgaria — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
L. Petkov	3	78235 min	00 /90	00 /90	31.1 /90	00 /90	10.4 /90	31.1 /90
Z. Dimitrov	3	45136 min	00 /90	00 /90	32 /90	21.3 /90	32 /90	10.7 /90
M. Petkov	3	42127 min	00 /90	00 /90	32.1 /90	10.7 /90	21.4 /90	53.5 /90
Stanislav Ivanov	3	3089 min	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	11 /90	00 /90
Atanas Iliev	2	75149 min	10.6 /90	00 /90	63.6 /90	31.8 /90	10.6 /90	00 /90
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Bulgaria — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bulgaria before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
D. Naumov n 5	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Ilia Gruev n 8	79.9	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
P. Panayotov n 4	32.5	0.7 1/0	0.7 1/0
D. Velkovski n 4	90	0.3 1/0	0 0/0
K. Dimitrov n 8	88	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0
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Bulgaria — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bulgaria before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
D. Naumov n 5	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Ilia Gruev n 8	79.9	0 0/0	0 0/0
P. Panayotov n 4	32.5	0 0/0	0 0/0
D. Velkovski n 4	90	0 0/0	0.3 1/0
Stefan Velkov n 4	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Iceland

Iceland Goalkeeper

Iceland — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
H. Valdimarsson	4	90360 min	112.8 /90	10.3 /90	10.3 /90

Iceland — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Iceland before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
H. Valdimarsson n 7	90	3.7 6/6

Iceland Defensive

Iceland — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
D. L. Gretarsson	4	79315 min	72 /90	51.4 /90	20.6 /90	195.4 /90	41.1 /90	10.3 /90
V. Palsson	4	73293 min	82.5 /90	10.3 /90	10.3 /90	226.8 /90	10.3 /90	00 /90
M. Ellertsson	3	88264 min	93.1 /90	31 /90	00 /90	196.5 /90	62 /90	20.7 /90
S. Þórðarson	3	82247 min	51.8 /90	41.5 /90	10.4 /90	103.6 /90	41.5 /90	10.4 /90
H. Magnússon	3	60180 min	31.5 /90	21 /90	10.5 /90	84 /90	42 /90	10.5 /90
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Iceland — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Iceland before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
H. Valdimarsson n 7	90	0 0/0	0.1 1/0	—
Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson n 8	86.9	0.8 4/2	0.6 4/1	—
O. Óskarsson n 7	70.1	1.8 6/3	0.4 2/0	—
H. Haraldsson n 8	87.1	0.8 4/2	1.5 7/3	—
D. L. Gretarsson n 8	83.4	1.1 6/2	0.7 4/1	—
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Iceland — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Iceland before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson n 8	86.9	2.7 7/7
O. Óskarsson n 7	70.1	0 0/0
H. Haraldsson n 8	87.1	1.7 7/4
D. L. Gretarsson n 8	83.4	1.5 4/4
A. Guðjohnsen n 8	78.6	0.7 4/1
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Iceland Attacking

Iceland — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
O. Óskarsson	4	86344 min	30.8 /90	20.5 /90	123.1 /90	61.6 /90	41 /90	20.5 /90
A. Guðjohnsen	4	74295 min	20.6 /90	10.3 /90	51.5 /90	20.6 /90	72.1 /90	00 /90
B. Willumsson	2	2039 min	00 /90	00 /90	12.3 /90	00 /90	00 /90	24.6 /90
Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson	4	86345 min	00 /90	00 /90	20.5 /90	10.3 /90	51.3 /90	10.3 /90
H. Haraldsson	4	84337 min	00 /90	20.5 /90	51.3 /90	20.5 /90	61.6 /90	30.8 /90
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Iceland — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Iceland before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
H. Valdimarsson n 7	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson n 8	86.9	0.5 4/0	0.1 1/0
O. Óskarsson n 7	70.1	2.7 4/4	1.5 4/3
H. Haraldsson n 8	87.1	0.8 4/1	0.3 2/0
D. L. Gretarsson n 8	83.4	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
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Iceland — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Iceland before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
H. Valdimarsson n 7	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson n 8	86.9	0 0/0	0.3 2/0
O. Óskarsson n 7	70.1	0.7 3/1	0.4 2/0
H. Haraldsson n 8	87.1	0 0/0	0.4 3/0
D. L. Gretarsson n 8	83.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Bulgaria v Iceland — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

BulgariaWLDLW

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1 scored / 1.2 conceded per game

IcelandLDWWD

Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · 1.4 scored / 0.6 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 1

Bulgaria 0 · 0 draws · Iceland 1 · 3 goals/game

2026-10-03 Iceland 3–0 Bulgaria

League standing · 2026/27

Bulgaria#3 pos4 pts4 pl-2 GD

Iceland#1 pos8 pts4 pl+6 GD

Goals per game

Bulgaria scored0.75

Iceland scored1.75

Bulgaria conceded1.25

Iceland conceded0.25

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Expected goals (xG)

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Bulgaria v Iceland?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Bulgaria v Iceland is Home offsides over 0.5.
What is the head-to-head record between Bulgaria and Iceland?: In their last 1 meetings, Bulgaria won 0, Iceland won 1 and there were 0 draws, averaging 3 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Bulgaria and Iceland?: Recent form — Bulgaria 2W 1D 2L; Iceland 2W 2D 1L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 11 Nov 2026, 13:29 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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