Italy v Türkiye result

Full-time · Italy 3–1 Türkiye

UEFA Nations League · · Stadio Renato Dall'Ara

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Italy · Türkiye

The model’s pre-match pick

Italy 3–1 Türkiye — Italy won this UEFA Nations League match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home corners total under 6.5.

Free pick
Home corners total under 6.5
Best price: 1.57 at Betano
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
Match report, in numbers

The result

Italy beat Türkiye 3–1 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in the UEFA Nations League on Monday 5 October.

The goals

Italy led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — Italy: Gianluca Scamacca (26’), Riccardo Calafiori (64’, assisted by Nicolò Barella) and Francesco Esposito (87’, assisted by Alessandro Romano); Türkiye: Aral Simsir (61’, assisted by Evren Elmalı).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s four key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Riccardo Calafiori’s goal on 64 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Italy 2.04, Türkiye 1.42, from 15 shots to 14 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

The bookings — Italy: Gianluca Scamacca (42’) and Matteo Ruggeri (47’); Türkiye: Z. Çelik (55’) and Abdülkerim Bardakcı (81’).

What it changes

Italy are unbeaten in their last three matches in all competitions. Türkiye have lost their last four matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Evren Elmalı (Türkiye) 6.5, Nicolò Barella (Italy) 6.2 and Antonio Vergara (Italy) 5.6 led the match.

Head-to-head

Italy are unbeaten in the last four meetings with Türkiye, every meeting checked.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Italy corners total under 6.5, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

Italy next host France on 12 November 2026.

Türkiye next host Belgium on 12 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Italy: Italy v France, Thursday 12 November — the preview. Next for Türkiye: Türkiye v Belgium, Thursday 12 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Italy 3–1 Türkiye · UEFA Nations League
  • Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara · Bologna
  • Referee: Szymon Marciniak
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 4): Italy 3 · draws 1 · Türkiye 0 · 3.25 goals/game
  • Recent form: Italy 2W 2D 1L · Türkiye 1W 0D 4L

Italy 3–1 Türkiye (UEFA Nations League): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 19 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.75 / 0.75
Goals
against 1.13 / 1.63 · 1 of the last 5 over 3
over 8 matches
6.43 / 6.13
Corners
against 4.14 / 3.38 · 3 of the last 4 over 9.5
over 7 matches
6.14 / 4.38
Shots on target
against 4 / 4.63 · 4 of the last 4 over 8.5
over 7 matches
1.86 / 2.25
Cards
against 2.43 / 1.75 · 2 of the last 4 over 3.5
over 7 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 2 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 2 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameItaly for / againstLineTürkiye for / against
Goals scored
1.75 for · 1.13 against n 8
3our book
0.75 for · 1.63 against n 8
Corners won
6.43 for · 4.14 against n 7
9.5standard
6.13 for · 3.38 against n 8
Shots
18.14 for · 12 against n 7
19.5standard
18.63 for · 11.75 against n 8
Shots on target
6.14 for · 4 against n 7
8.5standard
4.38 for · 4.63 against n 8
Fouls committed
13.29 for · 9.86 against n 7
21.5standard
10.75 for · 14 against n 8
Cards shown
1.86 for · 2.43 against n 7
3.5standard
2.25 for · 1.75 against n 8

Referee: Szymon Marciniak.

Italy

Italy Goalkeeper

Italy — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
G. Donnarumma390270 min155 /9041.3 /9000 /90
Italy — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Italy before kick-off, to 2 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
G. Donnarumma n 890.4
2.95/3

Italy Defensive

Italy — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
G. Scalvini368205 min41.8 /9020.9 /9041.8 /9073.1 /9020.9 /9000 /90
A. Bastoni290180 min10.5 /9000 /9000 /9031.5 /9042 /9010.5 /90
Michael Kayode290180 min31.5 /9010.5 /9021 /90105 /9010.5 /9000 /90
Riccardo Calafiori290180 min42 /9010.5 /9021 /9052.5 /9000 /9000 /90
G. Mancini19090 min00 /9000 /9000 /9011 /9011 /9011 /90
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Italy — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Italy before kick-off, to 2 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
G. Donnarumma n 890.4
00/0
0.11/0
—
S. Tonali n 885.5
1.36/2
1.35/3
—
G. Scalvini n 565.2
0.62/0
00/0
—
F. Esposito n 856.9
2.24/3
36/4
—
D. Frattesi n 867.9
0.73/1
28/3
—
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Italy — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Italy before kick-off, to 2 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
S. Tonali n 885.5
1.26/3
G. Scalvini n 565.2
34/2
F. Esposito n 856.9
0.63/0
D. Frattesi n 867.9
2.27/3
Riccardo Calafiori n 890.4
1.58/2
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Italy Attacking

Italy — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
F. Esposito367202 min10.4 /9010.4 /9052.2 /9041.8 /9041.8 /9000 /90
M. Kean290180 min00 /9000 /9073.5 /9031.5 /9000 /9021 /90
S. Esposito272143 min00 /9000 /9021.3 /9000 /9000 /9021.3 /90
Nicolo Cambiaghi263125 min00 /9000 /9021.4 /9021.4 /9053.6 /9010.7 /90
G. Raspadori14545 min00 /9000 /9024 /9000 /9024 /9012 /90
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Italy — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Italy before kick-off, to 2 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
G. Donnarumma n 890.4
00/0
00/0
S. Tonali n 885.5
1.15/2
0.74/1
G. Scalvini n 565.2
0.83/0
0.31/0
F. Esposito n 856.9
3.27/5
2.47/5
D. Frattesi n 867.9
1.87/3
0.53/0
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Italy — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Italy before kick-off, to 2 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
G. Donnarumma n 890.4
00/0
00/0
S. Tonali n 885.5
0.32/0
0.11/0
G. Scalvini n 565.2
00/0
00/0
F. Esposito n 856.9
0.84/0
0.21/0
D. Frattesi n 867.9
0.32/0
0.21/0
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Türkiye

Türkiye Goalkeeper

Türkiye — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
U. Çakır591454 min173.4 /9091.8 /9000 /90
A. Bayındır19090 min44 /9044 /9000 /90
Türkiye — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Türkiye before kick-off, to 2 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
U. Çakır n 890.5
2.66/2
A. Bayındır n 379
3.43/2

Türkiye Defensive

Türkiye — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
A. Bardakcı683498 min132.3 /9040.7 /9010.2 /90285.1 /9030.5 /9010.2 /90
Z. Çelik587435 min142.9 /9051 /9020.4 /90265.4 /9051 /9000 /90
M. Demiral582412 min30.7 /9040.9 /9030.7 /90204.4 /9061.3 /9010.2 /90
F. Kadıoğlu487346 min51.3 /9051.3 /9000 /90143.6 /9020.5 /9000 /90
O. Kabak290180 min42 /9010.5 /9010.5 /90126 /9063 /9010.5 /90
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Türkiye — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Türkiye before kick-off, to 2 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
A. Güler n 889.9
15/2
3.88/7
—
A. Bardakcı n 884.8
0.74/1
0.53/1
—
B. Yılmaz n 861.4
27/4
1.35/2
—
U. Çakır n 890.5
0.11/0
00/0
—
Z. Çelik n 884.4
0.85/1
0.93/2
—
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Türkiye — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Türkiye before kick-off, to 2 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
A. Güler n 889.9
16/2
A. Bardakcı n 884.8
1.97/4
B. Yılmaz n 861.4
0.74/0
Z. Çelik n 884.4
2.98/6
M. Demiral n 878.9
0.94/2
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Türkiye Attacking

Türkiye — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
A. Güler691547 min10.2 /9000 /90183 /90101.6 /90132.1 /90152.5 /90
B. Yılmaz665392 min20.5 /9010.2 /9030.7 /9020.5 /9071.6 /9040.9 /90
K. Aktürkoğlu551257 min00 /9000 /9041.4 /9010.4 /9051.8 /9010.4 /90
C. Uzun441165 min00 /9000 /9042.2 /9010.5 /9052.7 /9021.1 /90
K. Yıldız375226 min00 /9000 /9052 /9010.4 /9052 /9052 /90
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Türkiye — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Türkiye before kick-off, to 2 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
A. Güler n 889.9
2.67/4
1.46/2
A. Bardakcı n 884.8
0.84/2
0.11/0
B. Yılmaz n 861.4
0.53/0
0.42/0
U. Çakır n 890.5
00/0
00/0
Z. Çelik n 884.4
0.43/0
0.32/0
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Türkiye — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Türkiye before kick-off, to 2 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
A. Güler n 889.9
0.11/0
0.11/0
A. Bardakcı n 884.8
00/0
00/0
B. Yılmaz n 861.4
0.42/0
0.21/0
U. Çakır n 890.5
00/0
00/0
Z. Çelik n 884.4
0.11/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
ItalyTürkiye
45%Possession55%
2.04Expected goals (xG)1.42
15Shots14
6Shots on target5
2Shots off target5
7Blocked shots4
12Shots inside the box7
3Corners9
5Offsides0
11Fouls9
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
4Saves3
451Passes554
87%Pass accuracy90%

Italy Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
A. Bastoni9000001407.7
Issa Doumbia9000221108.3
D. Maldini9000001306.2
G. Mancini9000000107.9
Alessandro Romano9001112007.6
G. Donnarumma9000000007.5
A. Romano9001112007.6
A. Vergara8400000507.5
N. Barella7001002207.2
Matteo Ruggeri56000000Y6.7
Gianluca Scamacca56102110Y7.2
Giovanni Di Lorenzo5500102007.2
Michael Kayode sub3500001006.3
Riccardo Calafiori sub3410110207.3
F. Esposito sub3410111007.3
S. Tonali sub2000000006.6
D. Frattesi sub900000106.6

Türkiye Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
A. Bardakcı90001002Y6.7
Z. Çelik90000022Y6.5
E. Elmalı9001101406.2
O. Kabak9000110006.3
S. Özcan9000221007.2
U. Çakır9000000006.3
Y. Akgün8800112007.2
F. Kadıoğlu8800001206.9
İ. Yüksek7900001206.9
İ. Kahveci7000101006.9
Aral Simsir7010111007
B. Elmaz sub2000001006.3
I. Fakili sub2000001006.3
K. Aktürkoğlu sub1100101006.7
O. Aydın sub20000000–
D. Gül sub20010000–

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Italy v Türkiye — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
ItalyWDLWD
Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · 1.6 scored / 1 conceded per game
TürkiyeLWLLL
Last 5: 1W 0D 4L · 0.8 scored / 2.2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 4
Italy 3 · 1 draw · Türkiye 0 · 3.25 goals/game
  • 2026-09-28 Türkiye 1–4 Italy
  • 2024-06-04 Italy 0–0 Türkiye
  • 2022-03-29 Türkiye 2–3 Italy
  • 2021-06-11 Türkiye 0–3 Italy
League standing · 2026/27
Italy#2 pos7 pts4 pl+3 GD
Türkiye#4 pos0 pts4 pl-9 GD
Goals per game
Italy scored2
Türkiye scored0.5
Italy conceded1.25
Türkiye conceded2.75

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Italy v Türkiye?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Italy v Türkiye was Home corners total under 6.5 (best price 1.57 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Italy and Türkiye?
In their last 4 meetings, Italy won 3, Türkiye won 0 and there was 1 draw, averaging 3.25 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Italy and Türkiye?
Recent form — Italy 2W 2D 1L; Türkiye 1W 0D 4L.

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