Italy v France prediction

UEFA Nations League · Thu, 12 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT · Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Updated 11 Nov 2026, 00:58 UK · refreshed continuously

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Italy v France, UEFA Nations League on Thu, 12 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT.

Free pick

Over 2.5 goals

Best price: 1.67 at Betano

What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 68.7% of 495 landed (95% range 64.5–72.6%); it had given them 75.9% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Italy host France in the UEFA Nations League on Thursday 12 November (kick-off 19:45 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.

The key numbers

France have scored in five consecutive matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

Nine of Italy’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in eight of Italy’s last 15 results in all competitions (53%). At home, Italy have five wins, no draws and two defeats in their last 7 home matches in all competitions — 2.14 points per game, scoring 2.29 and conceding 1.00.

Nine of France’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in seven of France’s last 15 results in all competitions (47%). Away from home, France have five wins, one draw and no defeats in their last 6 away matches in all competitions — 2.67 points per game, scoring 2.00 and conceding 0.67.

Italy are unbeaten in their last three matches in all competitions. France are unbeaten in their last four matches in all competitions. Italy (second) and France (first) are three points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have France the stronger side, 200 rating points above Italy (France 1961, Italy 1762, after at least 32 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 2 October 2026, finished France 1–1 Italy.

Team news

Predicted Italy XI (4-4-2): G. Donnarumma, A. Bastoni, R. Calafiori, G. Mancini, M. Kayode, S. Tonali, N. Barella, D. Frattesi, A. Romano, F. Esposito, M. Kean — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Francesco Esposito (4.8 per match over six appearances, four goals and one assist) and Michael Kayode (4.3 per match over three appearances, one goal) have been Italy’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Italy (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Francesco Esposito averages 2.5 shots per 90 over 1091 minutes, with a shot in eight of the last 10 appearances. Michael Kayode averages 1.4 tackles per 90 over 1130 minutes, with a tackle in nine of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted France XI (4-2-3-1): M. Maignan, M. Lacroix, J. Koundé, D. Upamecano, A. Diouf, A. Rabiot, R. Cherki, E. Camavinga, M. Koné, L. Da Cunha, O. Dembélé — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Michael Olise (6.9 per match over 15 appearances, seven goals and nine assists) and Kylian Mbappé (6.7 per match over 12 appearances, 11 goals and four assists) have been France’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for France (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Michael Olise averages 3.6 key passes per 90 over 2242 minutes, with a key pass in 10 of the last 10 appearances. Kylian Mbappé averages 4.3 shots per 90 over 2340 minutes, with a shot in nine of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Thu, 12 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT · UEFA Nations League · Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 4): Italy 1 · draws 1 · France 2 · 3.5 goals/game
Recent form: Italy 2W 2D 1L · France 3W 1D 1L

Italy v France (UEFA Nations League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 11 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.75 / 1.75

Goals

against 1.25 / 1.25 · 2 of the last 5 over 3

over 8 matches

6.29 / 6.38

Corners

against 5 / 3.13 · 3 of the last 4 over 9.5

over 7 matches

6.14 / 6.5

Shots on target

against 4.43 / 3 · 4 of the last 4 over 8.5

over 7 matches

1.86 / 1.5

Cards

against 2.57 / 1.75 · 3 of the last 4 over 3.5

over 7 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 5 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 5 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Italy for / against	Line	France for / against
Goals scored	1.75 for · 1.25 against n 8 Last 5	3our book	1.75 for · 1.25 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	6.29 for · 5 against n 7 Last 5	9.5standard	6.38 for · 3.13 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	18 for · 12.86 against n 7 Last 5	19.5standard	17.13 for · 10.25 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	6.14 for · 4.43 against n 7 Last 5	8.5standard	6.5 for · 3 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	12.57 for · 10 against n 7 Last 5	21.5standard	10.38 for · 11.25 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	1.86 for · 2.57 against n 7 Last 5	3.5standard	1.5 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5

Italy

Italy Goalkeeper

Italy — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
G. Donnarumma	4	90360 min	194.8 /90	51.3 /90	00 /90

Italy — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Italy before kick-off, to 5 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
G. Donnarumma n 8	90.4	2.9 5/3

Italy Defensive

Italy — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
A. Bastoni	3	90270 min	51.7 /90	10.3 /90	00 /90	72.3 /90	62 /90	10.3 /90
Michael Kayode	3	72215 min	31.3 /90	20.8 /90	20.8 /90	104.2 /90	20.8 /90	00 /90
Riccardo Calafiori	3	71214 min	62.5 /90	10.4 /90	20.8 /90	72.9 /90	00 /90	00 /90
G. Scalvini	3	68205 min	41.8 /90	20.9 /90	41.8 /90	73.1 /90	20.9 /90	00 /90
G. Mancini	2	90180 min	10.5 /90	00 /90	21 /90	42 /90	21 /90	10.5 /90
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Italy — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Italy before kick-off, to 5 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
G. Donnarumma n 8	90.4	0 0/0	0 0/0	—
S. Tonali n 8	76.8	1.3 5/2	1 4/2	—
F. Esposito n 8	51.8	2.2 3/3	2.4 6/3	—
A. Bastoni n 8	86.1	1.8 7/4	0.9 4/3	—
Michael Kayode n 3	71.7	0.8 2/0	0.8 1/1	—
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Italy — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Italy before kick-off, to 5 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
S. Tonali n 8	76.8	1 5/2
F. Esposito n 8	51.8	0.7 3/0
A. Bastoni n 8	86.1	1.4 6/2
Michael Kayode n 3	71.7	1.3 2/1
Riccardo Calafiori n 8	83.4	1.8 8/3
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Italy Attacking

Italy — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
F. Esposito	4	59236 min	20.8 /90	10.4 /90	62.3 /90	51.9 /90	51.9 /90	00 /90
M. Kean	2	90180 min	00 /90	00 /90	73.5 /90	31.5 /90	00 /90	21 /90
S. Esposito	2	72143 min	00 /90	00 /90	21.3 /90	00 /90	00 /90	21.3 /90
Nicolo Cambiaghi	2	63125 min	00 /90	00 /90	21.4 /90	21.4 /90	53.6 /90	10.7 /90
D. Maldini	2	58115 min	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	21.6 /90	10.8 /90
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Italy — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Italy before kick-off, to 5 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
G. Donnarumma n 8	90.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
S. Tonali n 8	76.8	0.7 4/1	0.4 3/0
F. Esposito n 8	51.8	3.3 7/4	2.4 7/4
A. Bastoni n 8	86.1	0.7 4/1	0.4 3/0
Michael Kayode n 3	71.7	1.3 1/1	1.3 1/1
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Italy — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Italy before kick-off, to 5 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
G. Donnarumma n 8	90.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
S. Tonali n 8	76.8	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
F. Esposito n 8	51.8	0.9 4/0	0.2 1/0
A. Bastoni n 8	86.1	0.4 3/0	0 0/0
Michael Kayode n 3	71.7	0.4 1/0	0 0/0
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France

France Goalkeeper

France — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
M. Maignan	11	90990 min	191.7 /90	111 /90	10.1 /90
Guillaume Restes	1	9090 min	11 /90	11 /90	00 /90

France — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for France before kick-off, to 5 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
M. Maignan n 8	90	1.8 4/3

France Defensive

France — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
D. Upamecano	10	84836 min	202.2 /90	212.3 /90	80.9 /90	434.6 /90	101.1 /90	30.3 /90
J. Koundé	9	87782 min	212.4 /90	60.7 /90	20.2 /90	424.8 /90	60.7 /90	00 /90
M. Lacroix	6	85510 min	61.1 /90	91.6 /90	61.1 /90	213.7 /90	81.4 /90	10.2 /90
William Saliba	6	80480 min	20.4 /90	61.1 /90	20.4 /90	142.6 /90	40.8 /90	00 /90
L. Digne	6	78465 min	51 /90	40.8 /90	00 /90	203.9 /90	71.4 /90	00 /90
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France — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for France before kick-off, to 5 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
O. Dembélé n 8	71.3	0 0/0	0.5 3/0	—
D. Doué n 8	49.9	0.9 3/1	1.1 4/1	—
M. Maignan n 8	90	0 0/0	0.3 2/0	—
M. Olise n 8	78.1	0.7 4/1	1.6 4/3	—
D. Upamecano n 8	82	1.1 7/1	0.4 2/1	—
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France — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for France before kick-off, to 5 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
O. Dembélé n 8	71.3	0.2 1/0
D. Doué n 8	49.9	3.4 7/4
M. Olise n 8	78.1	2.2 6/4
D. Upamecano n 8	82	1.8 5/4
J. Koundé n 8	86.5	2.2 7/5
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France Attacking

France — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
D. Doué	12	51613 min	20.3 /90	30.4 /90	192.8 /90	131.9 /90	192.8 /90	172.5 /90
Kylian Mbappé	9	84757 min	111.3 /90	40.5 /90	384.5 /90	242.9 /90	182.1 /90	131.5 /90
B. Barcola	8	64510 min	20.4 /90	10.2 /90	111.9 /90	50.9 /90	71.2 /90	152.6 /90
Esteban Lepaul	2	79158 min	00 /90	00 /90	63.4 /90	21.1 /90	00 /90	00 /90
O. Dembélé	12	72858 min	60.6 /90	20.2 /90	212.2 /90	131.4 /90	293 /90	121.3 /90
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France — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for France before kick-off, to 5 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
O. Dembélé n 8	71.3	2.2 7/5	1.3 5/3
D. Doué n 8	49.9	2.7 6/3	1.8 6/2
M. Maignan n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
M. Olise n 8	78.1	2.6 6/6	1.3 4/3
D. Upamecano n 8	82	0.4 3/0	0.3 2/0
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France — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for France before kick-off, to 5 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
O. Dembélé n 8	71.3	0.3 2/0	0 0/0
D. Doué n 8	49.9	0.2 1/0	0.7 2/1
M. Maignan n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
M. Olise n 8	78.1	0.4 2/1	0.9 4/2
D. Upamecano n 8	82	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Italy v France — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

ItalyDLWDW

Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · 1.8 scored / 1.2 conceded per game

FranceLWWDW

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 2.2 scored / 1.6 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 4

Italy 1 · 1 draw · France 2 · 3.5 goals/game

2026-10-02 France 1–1 Italy
2024-11-17 Italy 1–3 France
2024-09-06 France 1–3 Italy
2018-06-01 France 3–1 Italy

League standing · 2026/27

Italy#2 pos7 pts4 pl+3 GD

France#1 pos10 pts4 pl+5 GD

Goals per game

Italy scored2

France scored1.75

Italy conceded1.25

France conceded0.5

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Expected goals (xG)

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Win probability & value

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Italy v France?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Italy v France is Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.67 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Italy and France?: In their last 4 meetings, Italy won 1, France won 2 and there was 1 draw, averaging 3.5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Italy and France?: Recent form — Italy 2W 2D 1L; France 3W 1D 1L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 11 Nov 2026, 00:58 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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