Latvia v Armenia prediction

UEFA Nations League · Sun, 15 Nov 2026 14:00 GMT

Updated 11 Nov 2026, 23:26 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Latvia · Armenia · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Under 2.5 goals the free pick for Latvia v Armenia, UEFA Nations League on Sun, 15 Nov 2026 14:00 GMT.

Free pick

Under 2.5 goals

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Under 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 56.1% of 139 landed (95% range 47.8–64.1%); it had given them 77.5% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Latvia host Armenia in the UEFA Nations League on Sunday 15 November (kick-off 14:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Under 2.5 goals, a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

Latvia are winless in their last four matches in all competitions. Armenia are winless in their last three matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

Seven of Latvia’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (47%). Both teams scored in six of Latvia’s last 15 results in all competitions (40%). At home, Latvia have one win, three draws and four defeats in their last 8 home matches in all competitions — 0.75 points per game, scoring 0.75 and conceding 1.63.

Seven of Armenia’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (47%). Both teams scored in five of Armenia’s last 15 results in all competitions (33%). Away from home, Armenia have one win, one draw and five defeats in their last 7 away matches in all competitions — 0.57 points per game, scoring 0.57 and conceding 3.00.

Latvia (fourth) and Armenia (third) are three points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Armenia the stronger side, 90 rating points above Latvia (Armenia 1224, Latvia 1134, after at least 30 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

Armenia are unbeaten in the last three meetings with Latvia. The most recent meeting, on 25 September 2026, finished Armenia 2–0 Latvia.

Team news

Predicted Latvia XI (5-4-1): R. Matrevics, D. Meļņiks, A. Černomordijs, R. Jurkovskis, D. Cirkin, O. Vientiess, D. Zelenkovs, L. Vapne, A. Ciganiks, D. Patijčuks, V. Gutkovskis — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, R. Matrevics (3.4 per match over four appearances) and Dennis Cirkin (2.9 per match over three appearances) have been Latvia’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Latvia (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), R. Matrevics averages 4.0 saves per 90 over 360 minutes. Dennis Cirkin averages 2.7 tackles per 90 over 695 minutes, with a tackle in five of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Armenia XI (4-4-2): A. Beglaryan, E. Piloyan, G. Harutyunyan, N. Tiknizyan, E. Simonyan, E. Spertsyan, U. Iwu, K. Hovhannisyan, A. Serobyan, A. Miranyan, G. Manvelyan — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Georgiy Harutyunyan (6.0 per match over four appearances, one goal and one assist) and E. Spertsyan (5.3 per match over four appearances, one goal and one assist) have been Armenia’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Armenia (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Georgiy Harutyunyan averages 2.3 tackles per 90 over 352 minutes. E. Spertsyan averages 2.9 key passes per 90 over 1315 minutes, with a key pass in nine of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Sun, 15 Nov 2026 14:00 GMT · UEFA Nations League
Model coverage: 210 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 5): Latvia 1 · draws 0 · Armenia 4 · 3 goals/game
Recent form: Latvia 1W 1D 3L · Armenia 1W 1D 3L

Latvia v Armenia (UEFA Nations League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 11 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

0.63 / 0.63

Goals

against 1.63 / 2.25 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

4.25 / 3.63

Corners

against 7 / 5.13 · 4 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

2 / 2.63

Shots on target

against 4.88 / 5.25 · 0 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

2 / 1.38

Cards

against 2 / 1.38 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

210

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 5 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 5 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	Latvia for / against	Line	Armenia for / against
Goals scored	0.63 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	0.63 for · 2.25 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	4.25 for · 7 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	3.63 for · 5.13 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	9.63 for · 14.88 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	8.88 for · 13.88 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	2 for · 4.88 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	2.63 for · 5.25 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	11.75 for · 9.88 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	10.63 for · 10.5 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	2 for · 2 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	1.38 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5

Latvia

Latvia Goalkeeper

Latvia — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
R. Matrevics	4	90360 min	164 /90	41 /90	00 /90

Latvia — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Latvia before kick-off, to 5 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
R. Matrevics n 8	90	3.2 7/5

Latvia Defensive

Latvia — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
A. Ciganiks	4	90360 min	61.5 /90	20.5 /90	00 /90	143.5 /90	51.3 /90	10.3 /90
D. Meļņiks	4	90360 min	51.3 /90	41 /90	10.3 /90	143.5 /90	41 /90	00 /90
Dennis Cirkin	3	90270 min	72.3 /90	10.3 /90	31 /90	134.3 /90	31 /90	00 /90
A. Černomordijs	3	81242 min	31.1 /90	20.7 /90	20.7 /90	41.5 /90	62.2 /90	20.7 /90
R. Jurkovskis	3	70210 min	62.6 /90	41.7 /90	10.4 /90	104.3 /90	10.4 /90	10.4 /90
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Latvia — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Latvia before kick-off, to 5 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
A. Ciganiks n 8	90	1.3 6/4	0.6 3/2	—
D. Meļņiks n 8	70.8	1.3 5/2	0.2 1/0	—
R. Matrevics n 8	90	0 0/0	0.3 2/0	—
D. Zelenkovs n 8	88.3	1 5/2	0.9 6/1	—
L. Vapne n 8	81.4	0.8 4/2	0.8 5/1	—
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Latvia — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Latvia before kick-off, to 5 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
A. Ciganiks n 8	90	2.4 8/6
D. Meļņiks n 8	70.8	1.3 6/2
D. Zelenkovs n 8	88.3	0.5 3/1
L. Vapne n 8	81.4	2.4 6/5
V. Gutkovskis n 8	61.4	0 0/0
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Latvia Attacking

Latvia — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
V. Gutkovskis	4	63250 min	00 /90	10.4 /90	62.2 /90	00 /90	20.7 /90	00 /90
Roberts Uldriķis	4	52207 min	00 /90	00 /90	41.7 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90
D. Zelenkovs	4	87346 min	00 /90	00 /90	20.5 /90	10.3 /90	10.3 /90	30.8 /90
L. Vapne	4	79315 min	00 /90	00 /90	20.6 /90	00 /90	30.9 /90	10.3 /90
E. Dašķevičs	3	56167 min	10.5 /90	00 /90	21.1 /90	10.5 /90	42.2 /90	21.1 /90
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Latvia — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Latvia before kick-off, to 5 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
A. Ciganiks n 8	90	0.6 4/1	0.1 1/0
D. Meļņiks n 8	70.8	0.5 3/0	0 0/0
R. Matrevics n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
D. Zelenkovs n 8	88.3	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0
L. Vapne n 8	81.4	0.8 5/1	0.4 2/1
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Latvia — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Latvia before kick-off, to 5 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
R. Matrevics n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
A. Ciganiks n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
D. Meļņiks n 8	70.8	0 0/0	0 0/0
D. Zelenkovs n 8	88.3	0 0/0	0 0/0
L. Vapne n 8	81.4	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
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Armenia

Armenia Goalkeeper

Armenia — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
A. Beglaryan	2	90180 min	73.5 /90	21 /90	00 /90
O. Cancarevic	2	90180 min	31.5 /90	31.5 /90	00 /90

Armenia — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Armenia before kick-off, to 5 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
A. Beglaryan n 3	90	2.7 2/1
O. Cancarevic n 8	90	2 4/3

Armenia Defensive

Armenia — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
N. Tiknizyan	4	90360 min	30.8 /90	41 /90	00 /90	112.8 /90	51.3 /90	00 /90
E. Piloyan	4	90359 min	41 /90	00 /90	00 /90	112.8 /90	20.5 /90	00 /90
Georgiy Harutyunyan	4	88352 min	92.3 /90	71.8 /90	41 /90	174.3 /90	00 /90	00 /90
Artem Bandikyan	3	77232 min	31.2 /90	10.4 /90	00 /90	103.9 /90	41.6 /90	10.4 /90
A. Petrosyan	3	51152 min	10.6 /90	00 /90	10.6 /90	84.7 /90	21.2 /90	00 /90
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Armenia — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Armenia before kick-off, to 5 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
N. Tiknizyan n 8	87.6	1.3 6/4	0.6 4/1	—
E. Piloyan n 8	84.4	0.9 4/3	1.1 4/2	—
Georgiy Harutyunyan n 8	81.6	0.1 1/0	0.3 2/0	—
E. Spertsyan n 8	83	0.8 5/1	1.9 8/4	—
Ugochukwu Iwu n 8	76.4	0.4 3/0	0.3 2/0	—
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Armenia — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Armenia before kick-off, to 5 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
N. Tiknizyan n 8	87.6	0.9 7/0
E. Piloyan n 8	84.4	0.9 4/2
Georgiy Harutyunyan n 8	81.6	1.5 6/3
E. Spertsyan n 8	83	1.2 5/2
Ugochukwu Iwu n 8	76.4	2.7 6/6
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Armenia Attacking

Armenia — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Artur Miranyan	4	65261 min	00 /90	00 /90	10.3 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90
E. Sevikyan	2	3365 min	00 /90	00 /90	11.4 /90	11.4 /90	00 /90	11.4 /90
Artur Gharibyan	2	2856 min	11.6 /90	00 /90	23.2 /90	11.6 /90	11.6 /90	00 /90
N. Grigoryan	1	4545 min	00 /90	00 /90	24 /90	12 /90	00 /90	12 /90
E. Spertsyan	4	76304 min	10.3 /90	10.3 /90	51.5 /90	30.9 /90	113.3 /90	82.4 /90
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Armenia — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Armenia before kick-off, to 5 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
N. Tiknizyan n 8	87.6	0.3 2/0	0 0/0
E. Piloyan n 8	84.4	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
Georgiy Harutyunyan n 8	81.6	0.4 2/1	0.3 2/0
E. Spertsyan n 8	83	1.2 6/2	0.8 5/1
Ugochukwu Iwu n 8	76.4	0.4 3/0	0 0/0
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Armenia — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Armenia before kick-off, to 5 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
N. Tiknizyan n 8	87.6	0 0/0	0 0/0
E. Piloyan n 8	84.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
Georgiy Harutyunyan n 8	81.6	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
E. Spertsyan n 8	83	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0
Ugochukwu Iwu n 8	76.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Latvia v Armenia — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

LatviaWLDLL

Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 0.6 scored / 1.2 conceded per game

ArmeniaLWLLD

Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 1 scored / 2.8 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 5

Latvia 1 · 0 draws · Armenia 4 · 3 goals/game

2026-09-25 Armenia 2–0 Latvia
2024-11-17 Latvia 1–2 Armenia
2024-09-07 Armenia 4–1 Latvia
2023-10-12 Latvia 2–0 Armenia
2023-06-19 Armenia 2–1 Latvia

League standing · 2026/27

Latvia#4 pos1 pts4 pl-4 GD

Armenia#3 pos4 pts4 pl-1 GD

Goals per game

Latvia scored0.5

Armenia scored1

Latvia conceded1.5

Armenia conceded1.25

Elo Ratings Before Kick-Off

Latvia: Elo rating 1134, falling over the last five rated matches.
Armenia: Elo rating 1224, falling over the last five rated matches.

Armenia are rated 90 points higher.

Ratings come from match results only and are taken before kick-off.

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Expected goals (xG)

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Latvia v Armenia?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Latvia v Armenia is Under 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Latvia and Armenia?: In their last 5 meetings, Latvia won 1, Armenia won 4 and there were 0 draws, averaging 3 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Latvia and Armenia?: Recent form — Latvia 1W 1D 3L; Armenia 1W 1D 3L.

Today’s Boards

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 11 Nov 2026, 23:26 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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