Serbia v Germany prediction

UEFA Nations League · Fri, 13 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT · Stadion Rajko Mitić

Updated 11 Nov 2026, 00:58 UK · refreshed continuously

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Serbia v Germany, UEFA Nations League on Fri, 13 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT.

Free pick

Over 2.5 goals

Odds: 1.39 at Betvictor

What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 68.7% of 495 landed (95% range 64.5–72.6%); it had given them 75.9% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Serbia host Germany in the UEFA Nations League on Friday 13 November (kick-off 19:45 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.

The key numbers

Serbia have lost their last four matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

Seven of Serbia’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (47%). Both teams scored in six of Serbia’s last 15 results in all competitions (40%). At home, Serbia have three wins, one draw and four defeats in their last 8 home matches in all competitions — 1.25 points per game, scoring 1.13 and conceding 1.38.

Six of Germany’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (40%). Both teams scored in six of Germany’s last 15 results in all competitions (40%). Away from home, Germany have two wins, two draws and two defeats in their last 6 away matches in all competitions — 1.33 points per game, scoring 0.83 and conceding 0.83.

Serbia (fourth) and Germany (third) are five points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Germany the stronger side, 204 rating points above Serbia (Germany 1733, Serbia 1529, after at least 30 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 1 October 2026, finished Germany 2–0 Serbia.

Team news

Predicted Serbia XI (5-4-1): V. Milinković-Savić, S. Babić, K. Nedeljković, S. Pavlović, A. Terzić, N. Gudelj, S. Lukić, N. Maksimović, A. Zivkovic, A. Stanković, L. Jović — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Strahinja Pavlović (3.7 per match over six appearances, one goal) and S. Milinković-Savić (3.4 per match over four appearances) have been Serbia’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Serbia (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Strahinja Pavlović averages 2.2 tackles per 90 over 1608 minutes, with a tackle in 10 of the last 10 appearances. S. Milinković-Savić averages 2.2 key passes per 90 over 1477 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Germany XI (4-4-2): J. Urbig, J. Tah, P. Treu, N. Brown, W. Anton, A. Pavlović, F. Nmecha, D. Scherhant, T. Bischof, F. Wirtz, K. Havertz — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Florian Wirtz (6.2 per match over 11 appearances, four goals and five assists) and Deniz Undav (5.2 per match over seven appearances, six goals and three assists) have been Germany’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Germany (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Florian Wirtz averages 2.8 key passes per 90 over 1947 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances. Deniz Undav averages 2.1 shots per 90 over 1425 minutes, with a shot in nine of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Fri, 13 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT · UEFA Nations League · Stadion Rajko Mitić
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 2): Serbia 0 · draws 1 · Germany 1 · 2 goals/game
Recent form: Serbia 1W 0D 4L · Germany 1W 3D 1L

Serbia v Germany (UEFA Nations League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 11 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1 / 1.75

Goals

against 1.63 / 0.88 · 0 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

5.29 / 6

Corners

against 4.71 / 3.43 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 7 matches

4.57 / 5.86

Shots on target

against 5.86 / 3 · 5 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 7 matches

1.71 / 0.86

Cards

against 1.71 / 2.14 · 1 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 7 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 4 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 4 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Serbia for / against	Line	Germany for / against
Goals scored	1 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5	3.5our book	1.75 for · 0.88 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	5.29 for · 4.71 against n 7 Last 5	9.5standard	6 for · 3.43 against n 7 Last 5
Shots	12.86 for · 17.14 against n 7 Last 5	19.5standard	19 for · 8.57 against n 7 Last 5
Shots on target	4.57 for · 5.86 against n 7 Last 5	8.5standard	5.86 for · 3 against n 7 Last 5
Fouls committed	12.86 for · 10.86 against n 7 Last 5	21.5standard	12.57 for · 10.57 against n 7 Last 5
Cards shown	1.71 for · 1.71 against n 7 Last 5	3.5standard	0.86 for · 2.14 against n 7 Last 5

Serbia

Serbia Goalkeeper

Serbia — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
V. Milinković-Savić	3	90270 min	175.7 /90	62 /90	00 /90
Đ. Petrović	1	9090 min	66 /90	22 /90	00 /90

Serbia — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Serbia before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
V. Milinković-Savić n 6	90	3.8 5/4
Đ. Petrović n 4	90	2.8 3/1

Serbia Defensive

Serbia — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
S. Pavlović	4	69274 min	93 /90	20.7 /90	31 /90	247.9 /90	82.6 /90	10.3 /90
S. Babić	3	90270 min	20.7 /90	62 /90	31 /90	72.3 /90	31 /90	00 /90
K. Nedeljković	3	80239 min	51.9 /90	10.4 /90	20.8 /90	114.1 /90	20.8 /90	00 /90
S. Eraković	3	63188 min	21 /90	10.5 /90	73.4 /90	62.9 /90	00 /90	00 /90
A. Terzić	3	60181 min	21 /90	21 /90	00 /90	31.5 /90	31.5 /90	10.5 /90
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Serbia — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Serbia before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
S. Pavlović n 8	72.9	1.5 6/2	1.5 6/3	—
Dušan Tadić n 8	68.8	0.3 2/0	1 4/1	—
A. Zivkovic n 8	74.5	0.3 2/0	0.6 4/0	—
S. Lukić n 8	65.8	2.2 8/4	1.4 6/1	—
Nemanja Maksimović n 8	54.5	2.3 6/3	0.4 2/0	—
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Serbia — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Serbia before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
S. Pavlović n 8	72.9	2.2 7/5
Dušan Tadić n 8	68.8	0.7 4/0
A. Zivkovic n 8	74.5	1.5 5/3
S. Lukić n 8	65.8	2.4 6/5
Nemanja Maksimović n 8	54.5	1 3/2
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Serbia Attacking

Serbia — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Dušan Tadić	4	67267 min	00 /90	10.3 /90	10.3 /90	00 /90	93 /90	20.7 /90
L. Jović	4	58230 min	10.4 /90	00 /90	72.7 /90	31.2 /90	00 /90	00 /90
Mihajlo Cvetković	3	53158 min	10.6 /90	00 /90	42.3 /90	21.1 /90	00 /90	31.7 /90
D. Joveljic	2	3264 min	00 /90	00 /90	22.8 /90	11.4 /90	00 /90	00 /90
A. Zivkovic	4	66264 min	10.3 /90	00 /90	31 /90	20.7 /90	51.7 /90	10.3 /90
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Serbia — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Serbia before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
S. Pavlović n 8	72.9	1.1 5/2	0.5 3/0
Dušan Tadić n 8	68.8	0.5 3/0	0.2 1/0
A. Zivkovic n 8	74.5	1.1 5/2	0.5 3/0
S. Lukić n 8	65.8	0.7 4/0	0.3 2/0
Nemanja Maksimović n 8	54.5	0.4 2/0	0.4 2/0
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Serbia — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Serbia before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
S. Pavlović n 8	72.9	0 0/0	0 0/0
Dušan Tadić n 8	68.8	0.2 1/0	0.3 2/0
A. Zivkovic n 8	74.5	0.2 1/0	0.3 1/1
S. Lukić n 8	65.8	0 0/0	0.2 1/0
Nemanja Maksimović n 8	54.5	0.2 1/0	0 0/0
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Germany

Germany Goalkeeper

Germany — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded
M. Neuer	3	90270 min	31 /90	41.3 /90
J. Urbig	2	90180 min	31.5 /90	00 /90
M. ter Stegen	1	9090 min	99 /90	11 /90

Germany — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Germany before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
M. Neuer n 8	90	2.8 5/3

Germany Defensive

Germany — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
J. Tah	5	87433 min	51 /90	30.6 /90	30.6 /90	122.5 /90	71.5 /90	00 /90
J. Kimmich	5	83413 min	71.5 /90	51.1 /90	10.2 /90	153.3 /90	30.7 /90	00 /90
N. Brown	4	84337 min	102.7 /90	41.1 /90	20.5 /90	123.2 /90	20.5 /90	00 /90
P. Treu	3	90270 min	72.3 /90	00 /90	00 /90	155 /90	31 /90	10.3 /90
N. Schlotterbeck	3	75225 min	41.6 /90	41.6 /90	31.2 /90	124.8 /90	41.6 /90	00 /90
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Germany — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Germany before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
F. Wirtz n 8	78.1	0.3 2/0	0.4 3/0	—
J. Tah n 8	86.5	1.3 7/2	0.1 1/0	—
J. Kimmich n 8	82.1	0.7 4/1	1.8 7/4	—
F. Nmecha n 8	68.3	1.2 6/1	1.5 6/2	—
A. Pavlović n 8	74.4	2.1 6/3	1.5 7/3	—
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Germany — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Germany before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
F. Wirtz n 8	78.1	1.4 6/4
J. Tah n 8	86.5	1 6/2
J. Kimmich n 8	82.1	1.5 5/4
F. Nmecha n 8	68.3	3.1 7/3
A. Pavlović n 8	74.4	1.5 5/4
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Germany Attacking

Germany — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
F. Wirtz	6	76458 min	10.2 /90	20.4 /90	91.8 /90	30.6 /90	173.3 /90	132.6 /90
K. Havertz	4	66265 min	20.7 /90	00 /90	62 /90	41.4 /90	10.3 /90	00 /90
D. Undav	3	2986 min	33.1 /90	22.1 /90	55.2 /90	44.2 /90	77.3 /90	00 /90
Y. Ebnoutalib	2	75150 min	00 /90	00 /90	42.4 /90	21.2 /90	10.6 /90	10.6 /90
N. Woltemade	2	52104 min	00 /90	00 /90	21.7 /90	00 /90	10.9 /90	10.9 /90
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Germany — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Germany before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
F. Wirtz n 8	78.1	1.9 7/3	0.7 3/2
J. Tah n 8	86.5	0 0/0	0 0/0
J. Kimmich n 8	82.1	0.5 2/2	0.3 2/0
F. Nmecha n 8	68.3	2.1 7/4	1.2 5/1
A. Pavlović n 8	74.4	0.6 3/1	0.2 1/0
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Germany — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Germany before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
F. Wirtz n 8	78.1	0.1 1/0	0.6 3/1
J. Tah n 8	86.5	0 0/0	0 0/0
J. Kimmich n 8	82.1	0 0/0	0.4 2/1
F. Nmecha n 8	68.3	0.5 3/0	0.2 1/0
A. Pavlović n 8	74.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Serbia v Germany — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

SerbiaWLLLL

Last 5: 1W 0D 4L · 1 scored / 1.8 conceded per game

GermanyDDLWD

Last 5: 1W 3D 1L · 0.8 scored / 0.6 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 2

Serbia 0 · 1 draw · Germany 1 · 2 goals/game

2026-10-01 Germany 2–0 Serbia
2019-03-20 Germany 1–1 Serbia

League standing · 2026/27

Serbia#4 pos0 pts4 pl-5 GD

Germany#3 pos5 pts4 pl+1 GD

Goals per game

Serbia scored0.75

Germany scored0.75

Serbia conceded2

Germany conceded0.5

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Expected goals (xG)

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Serbia v Germany?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Serbia v Germany is Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.39 at Betvictor).
What is the head-to-head record between Serbia and Germany?: In their last 2 meetings, Serbia won 0, Germany won 1 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Serbia and Germany?: Recent form — Serbia 1W 0D 4L; Germany 1W 3D 1L.

Today’s Boards

Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 11 Nov 2026, 00:58 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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