Türkiye v Italy result

Full-time · Türkiye 1–4 Italy

UEFA Nations League · · Yüzüncü Yıl Atatürk Sütaş Stadyumu

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Türkiye · Italy

The model’s pre-match pick

Türkiye 1–4 Italy — Italy won this UEFA Nations League match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Draw.

Free pick
Home or Draw
Best price: 1.57 at Betano
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Draw in the last 90 days, 75.9% of 1635 landed (95% range 73.8–77.9%); it had given them 75% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Italy won 4–1 at Yüzüncü Yıl Atatürk Sütaş Stadyumu in the UEFA Nations League on Monday 28 September. Expected goals (xG) tell a different story: Türkiye out-shot Italy 15 to 14 and created the better chances, 2.89 xG to 2.28 (the provider’s expected goals for this match). Variance.

The goals

Italy led 3–0 at half-time. The goals — Italy: Alessandro Bastoni (9’), Davide Frattesi (22’), Michael Kayode (27’, assisted by Francesco Esposito) and Francesco Esposito (50’); Türkiye: Barış Yılmaz (47’, assisted by Oğuz Aydın).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s five key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Alessandro Bastoni’s goal on 9 minutes.

Discipline

Michael Oliver, England showed three yellow cards — against 3.8 yellows a game across the last 12 matches refereed (all competitions). The bookings — Türkiye: Can Uzun (38’), Barış Yılmaz (54’) and Ozan Kabak (72’).

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Davide Frattesi (Italy) 7.9, Francesco Esposito (Italy) 7.9 and Michael Kayode (Italy) 6.9 led the match.

Head-to-head

Italy are unbeaten in the last three meetings with Türkiye, every meeting checked.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Türkiye or the draw, a Bronze-tier call, did not land — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 75.9% of the time in the last 90 days (1241 of 1635).

Next up

Türkiye next host Belgium on 12 November 2026.

Italy next host France on 12 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Türkiye: Türkiye v Belgium, Thursday 12 November — the preview. Next for Italy: Italy v France, Thursday 12 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Türkiye 1–4 Italy · UEFA Nations League
  • Venue: Yüzüncü Yıl Atatürk Sütaş Stadyumu · Bursa
  • Referee: Michael Oliver, England
  • Model coverage: 19 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 3): Türkiye 0 · draws 1 · Italy 2 · 2.67 goals/game
  • Recent form: Türkiye 2W 0D 3L · Italy 2W 1D 2L

Türkiye 1–4 Italy (UEFA Nations League): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 19 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 12 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.13 / 2.13
Goals
against 1 / 1.5 · 1 of the last 5 over 3
over 8 matches
6.71 / 7.29
Corners
against 4.14 / 3 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 7 matches
4.29 / 7
Shots on target
against 3 / 3.57 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 7 matches
2.14 / 1.71
Cards
against 1.57 / 2.14 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 7 matches
19
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 25 September 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 25 September 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameTürkiye for / againstLineItaly for / against
Goals scored
1.13 for · 1 against n 8
3our book
2.13 for · 1.5 against n 8
Corners won
6.71 for · 4.14 against n 7
9.5standard
7.29 for · 3 against n 7
Shots
18.57 for · 10.29 against n 7
19.5standard
20 for · 9.14 against n 7
Shots on target
4.29 for · 3 against n 7
8.5standard
7 for · 3.57 against n 7
Fouls committed
10.43 for · 13 against n 7
21.5standard
11.86 for · 12.14 against n 7
Cards shown
2.14 for · 1.57 against n 7
3.5standard
1.71 for · 2.14 against n 7

Referee: Michael Oliver, England.

Türkiye

Türkiye Goalkeeper

Türkiye — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
U. Çakır491364 min102.5 /9061.5 /9000 /90
Türkiye — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Türkiye before kick-off, to 25 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
U. Çakır n 890.5
26/1

Türkiye Defensive

Türkiye — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
A. Bardakcı491363 min112.7 /9030.7 /9010.2 /90246 /9010.2 /9000 /90
M. Demiral392277 min10.3 /9031 /9020.6 /90165.2 /9031 /9000 /90
F. Kadıoğlu385256 min41.4 /9031.1 /9000 /90103.5 /9010.4 /9000 /90
Z. Çelik385255 min72.5 /9010.4 /9010.4 /90165.6 /9020.7 /9000 /90
M. Müldür253106 min32.5 /9010.8 /9000 /9097.6 /9010.8 /9000 /90
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Türkiye — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Türkiye before kick-off, to 25 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
A. Güler n 886.9
15/2
3.28/6
—
U. Çakır n 890.5
0.11/0
00/0
—
A. Bardakcı n 890.4
0.95/1
0.53/1
—
B. Yılmaz n 851.8
2.87/5
1.35/1
—
M. Demiral n 884.5
0.96/1
0.43/0
—
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Türkiye — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Türkiye before kick-off, to 25 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
A. Güler n 886.9
17/1
A. Bardakcı n 890.4
1.96/5
B. Yılmaz n 851.8
1.15/0
M. Demiral n 884.5
1.35/3
F. Kadıoğlu n 883.1
1.55/3
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Türkiye Attacking

Türkiye — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
A. Güler492367 min10.2 /9000 /90102.5 /9051.2 /9082 /9061.5 /90
B. Yılmaz467267 min10.3 /9010.3 /9020.7 /9010.3 /9041.3 /9031 /90
K. Yıldız375226 min00 /9000 /9052 /9010.4 /9052 /9052 /90
K. Aktürkoğlu348145 min00 /9000 /9021.2 /9010.6 /9031.9 /9000 /90
D. Gül13030 min00 /9000 /9026 /9013 /9000 /9000 /90
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Türkiye — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Türkiye before kick-off, to 25 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
A. Güler n 886.9
1.97/2
0.95/1
U. Çakır n 890.5
00/0
00/0
A. Bardakcı n 890.4
0.64/1
0.11/0
B. Yılmaz n 851.8
0.42/0
0.21/0
M. Demiral n 884.5
1.55/3
0.52/2
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Türkiye — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Türkiye before kick-off, to 25 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
A. Güler n 886.9
0.11/0
0.11/0
U. Çakır n 890.5
00/0
00/0
A. Bardakcı n 890.4
00/0
0.11/0
B. Yılmaz n 851.8
0.21/0
0.42/0
M. Demiral n 884.5
0.31/1
00/0
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Italy

Italy Goalkeeper

Italy — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
G. Donnarumma19090 min66 /9022 /9000 /90
Italy — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Italy before kick-off, to 25 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
G. Donnarumma n 890.4
2.45/3

Italy Defensive

Italy — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
G. Mancini19090 min00 /9000 /9000 /9011 /9011 /9011 /90
Giovanni Di Lorenzo19090 min00 /9000 /9011 /9022 /9011 /9000 /90
Riccardo Calafiori19090 min11 /9000 /9011 /9011 /9000 /9000 /90
Diego Coppola16565 min22.8 /9011.4 /9011.4 /90811.1 /9000 /9000 /90
G. Scalvini12525 min13.6 /9000 /9000 /90414.4 /9013.6 /9000 /90
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Italy — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Italy before kick-off, to 25 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Riccardo Calafiori n 790.4
1.15/3
0.32/0
—
G. Mancini n 886.4
0.84/1
0.32/0
—
M. Kean n 861.3
0.73/1
1.76/3
—
Giovanni Di Lorenzo n 890
0.54/0
0.85/1
—
S. Tonali n 887.3
0.54/0
1.87/4
—
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Italy — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Italy before kick-off, to 25 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Giovanni Di Lorenzo n 890
1.44/3
Riccardo Calafiori n 790.4
1.37/1
S. Tonali n 887.3
16/2
M. Kean n 861.3
0.73/1
G. Mancini n 886.4
0.32/0
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Italy Attacking

Italy — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
M. Kean19090 min00 /9000 /9055 /9022 /9000 /9022 /90
Nicolo Cambiaghi18080 min00 /9000 /9011.1 /9011.1 /9044.5 /9011.1 /90
F. Esposito16565 min00 /9000 /9034.2 /9022.8 /9011.4 /9000 /90
D. Maldini12525 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9013.6 /9013.6 /90
N. Barella18080 min00 /9000 /9011.1 /9000 /9022.3 /9022.3 /90
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Italy — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Italy before kick-off, to 25 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
M. Kean n 861.3
4.27/5
2.47/4
S. Tonali n 887.3
1.26/2
0.96/1
Riccardo Calafiori n 790.4
1.15/3
0.32/0
G. Mancini n 886.4
0.74/1
0.43/0
Giovanni Di Lorenzo n 890
0.52/2
0.42/1
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Italy — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Italy before kick-off, to 25 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
M. Kean n 861.3
1.15/1
00/0
S. Tonali n 887.3
0.43/0
0.11/0
Giovanni Di Lorenzo n 890
0.31/1
00/0
G. Mancini n 886.4
0.32/0
00/0
G. Donnarumma n 890.4
00/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
TürkiyeItaly
54%Possession46%
2.89Expected goals (xG)2.28
15Shots14
3Shots on target8
7Shots off target4
5Blocked shots2
6Shots inside the box12
6Corners2
1Offsides2
12Fouls21
3Yellow cards0
0Red cards0
4Saves2
571Passes497
86%Pass accuracy85%

Türkiye Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
O. Aydın9001211007.2
Z. Çelik9000001205.3
E. Elmalı9000101206.2
A. Güler9000210208.2
O. Kabak90000010Y5.9
A. Bayındır9000000004.7
B. Yılmaz80101110Y6.9
S. Özcan7600000006.3
M. Demiral4500000005.7
O. Kökçü4500000006.5
C. Uzun45001001Y6.3
İ. Yüksek sub4500202107.2
A. Bardakcı sub4500000106.9
K. Aktürkoğlu sub4500101006
Demir Ege Tıknaz sub1400002107
D. Gül sub1000000006.3

Italy Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
S. Tonali9000101106.9
G. Scalvini9000000307.5
Matteo Ruggeri9000001306.9
Michael Kayode9010331107.6
A. Bastoni9010110007.3
G. Donnarumma9000000006.7
D. Frattesi8210113307.9
N. Fagioli7600000106.6
F. Esposito7511222007.5
S. Esposito6300100006.7
G. Raspadori4500202007
Alessandro Romano1400000206
Nicolo Cambiaghi sub4500111306.3
Issa Doumbia sub2700000006.7
Gianluca Scamacca sub1500000006.3
A. Romano sub1400000206.7
Giovanni Di Lorenzo sub800000006.7

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Türkiye v Italy — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
TürkiyeWLLWL
Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · 0.8 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
ItalyWLWDL
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.2 scored / 1.4 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 3
Türkiye 0 · 1 draw · Italy 2 · 2.67 goals/game
  • 2024-06-04 Italy 0–0 Türkiye
  • 2022-03-29 Türkiye 2–3 Italy
  • 2021-06-11 Türkiye 0–3 Italy
League standing · 2026/27
Türkiye#4 pos0 pts4 pl-9 GD
Italy#2 pos7 pts4 pl+3 GD
Goals per game
Türkiye scored0.5
Italy scored2
Türkiye conceded2.75
Italy conceded1.25

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Türkiye v Italy?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Türkiye v Italy was Home or Draw (best price 1.57 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Türkiye and Italy?
In their last 3 meetings, Türkiye won 0, Italy won 2 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2.67 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Türkiye and Italy?
Recent form — Türkiye 2W 0D 3L; Italy 2W 1D 2L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error

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