Wales v Portugal prediction

UEFA Nations League · Tue, 17 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT

Updated 11 Nov 2026, 00:58 UK · refreshed continuously

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Away win the free pick for Wales v Portugal, UEFA Nations League on Tue, 17 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT.

Free pick

Away win

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Away win in the last 90 days, 84.4% of 128 landed (95% range 77.1–89.7%); it had given them 76.6% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Wales host Portugal in the UEFA Nations League on Tuesday 17 November (kick-off 19:45 UK); the model’s free pick is Portugal to win.

The key numbers

Portugal have won their last four matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

Seven of Wales’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (47%). Both teams scored in eight of Wales’s last 15 results in all competitions (53%). At home, Wales have five wins, one draw and two defeats in their last 8 home matches in all competitions — 2.00 points per game, scoring 2.75 and conceding 1.25.

Nine of Portugal’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in eight of Portugal’s last 15 results in all competitions (53%). Away from home, Portugal have four wins, one draw and one defeat in their last 6 away matches in all competitions — 2.17 points per game, scoring 2.33 and conceding 1.17.

Wales (third) and Portugal (first) are nine points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Portugal the stronger side, 482 rating points above Wales (Portugal 2029, Wales 1547, after at least 26 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 24 September 2026, finished Portugal 1–0 Wales.

Team news

Predicted Wales XI (4-2-3-1): D. Ward, N. Williams, B. Davies, J. Dasilva, B. Cabango, E. Ampadu, S. Thomas, B. Johnson, L. Cullen, J. James, L. Koumas — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Neco Williams (5.4 per match over seven appearances, one goal and one assist) and Ethan Ampadu (2.8 per match over seven appearances) have been Wales’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Wales (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Neco Williams averages 1.3 key passes per 90 over 1600 minutes, with a key pass in six of the last 10 appearances. Ethan Ampadu averages 0.7 key passes per 90 over 1646 minutes, with a key pass in six of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Portugal XI (4-4-2): D. Costa, R. Dias, R. Veiga, N. Mendes, J. Cancelo, Vitinha, B. Fernandes, P. Neto, R. Neves, G. Ramos, J. Félix — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Nuno Mendes (4.4 per match over 11 appearances, one goal and two assists) and João Félix (3.9 per match over 10 appearances, three goals and one assist) have been Portugal’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Portugal (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Nuno Mendes averages 1.5 tackles per 90 over 1294 minutes, with a tackle in six of the last 10 appearances. João Félix averages 2.4 shots per 90 over 1697 minutes, with a shot in nine of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Tue, 17 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT · UEFA Nations League
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 1): Wales 0 · draws 0 · Portugal 1 · 1 goals/game
Recent form: Wales 1W 1D 3L · Portugal 4W 0D 1L

Wales v Portugal (UEFA Nations League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 11 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.63 / 2

Goals

against 1.38 / 0.75 · 1 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

4.86 / 5.25

Corners

against 4 / 4.38 · 1 of the last 4 over 9.5

over 7 matches

4.43 / 5.25

Shots on target

against 3.57 / 4.13 · 1 of the last 4 over 8.5

over 7 matches

2 / 2

Cards

against 1.43 / 1.25 · 2 of the last 4 over 3.5

over 7 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 4 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 4 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	Wales for / against	Line	Portugal for / against
Goals scored	1.63 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	2 for · 0.75 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	4.86 for · 4 against n 7 Last 5	9.5standard	5.25 for · 4.38 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	11 for · 13.29 against n 7 Last 5	19.5standard	16.13 for · 13.38 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	4.43 for · 3.57 against n 7 Last 5	8.5standard	5.25 for · 4.13 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	10 for · 9.29 against n 7 Last 5	21.5standard	9.88 for · 10.38 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	2 for · 1.43 against n 7 Last 5	3.5standard	2 for · 1.25 against n 8 Last 5

Wales

Wales Goalkeeper

Wales — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
D. Ward	4	90360 min	123 /90	51.3 /90	00 /90

Wales — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Wales before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
D. Ward n 8	90	2.5 6/5

Wales Defensive

Wales — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
N. Williams	4	90360 min	112.8 /90	61.5 /90	10.3 /90	256.3 /90	41 /90	00 /90
B. Davies	4	88353 min	30.8 /90	20.5 /90	61.5 /90	112.8 /90	51.3 /90	00 /90
J. Dasilva	3	90270 min	20.7 /90	41.3 /90	00 /90	72.3 /90	00 /90	00 /90
B. Cabango	3	84251 min	41.4 /90	10.4 /90	41.4 /90	134.7 /90	10.4 /90	20.7 /90
C. Mepham	2	55109 min	32.5 /90	32.5 /90	32.5 /90	43.3 /90	21.7 /90	10.8 /90
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Wales — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Wales before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
E. Ampadu n 8	90	2.1 8/6	0.5 3/1	—
N. Williams n 8	89	0.9 4/2	1 5/2	—
D. Ward n 8	90	0.1 1/0	0 0/0	—
B. Davies n 8	86.8	1.2 6/3	0.6 3/1	—
L. Koumas n 6	47.2	2.5 5/3	1 2/1	—
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Wales — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Wales before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
E. Ampadu n 8	90	2.1 6/6
N. Williams n 8	89	2.1 8/5
B. Davies n 8	86.8	1.8 7/2
L. Koumas n 6	47.2	0.6 2/0
J. James n 8	66.3	0.5 3/0
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Wales Attacking

Wales — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
L. Koumas	4	60241 min	00 /90	00 /90	20.7 /90	10.4 /90	10.4 /90	10.4 /90
E. Ampadu	4	90360 min	00 /90	00 /90	30.8 /90	00 /90	10.3 /90	00 /90
J. James	4	58231 min	00 /90	00 /90	10.4 /90	00 /90	31.2 /90	10.4 /90
J. Sheehan	4	42169 min	00 /90	00 /90	10.5 /90	10.5 /90	10.5 /90	00 /90
S. Thomas	3	90270 min	00 /90	10.3 /90	31 /90	10.3 /90	51.7 /90	31 /90
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Wales — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Wales before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
N. Williams n 8	89	1.1 5/3	0.4 3/0
E. Ampadu n 8	90	0.8 5/1	0 0/0
D. Ward n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
B. Davies n 8	86.8	0.5 3/1	0.1 1/0
L. Koumas n 6	47.2	1.3 3/1	0.6 2/0
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Wales — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Wales before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
N. Williams n 8	89	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
E. Ampadu n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
D. Ward n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
B. Davies n 8	86.8	0 0/0	0 0/0
L. Koumas n 6	47.2	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Portugal

Portugal Goalkeeper

Portugal — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Diogo Costa	9	90810 min	273 /90	70.8 /90	00 /90

Portugal — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Portugal before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Diogo Costa n 8	90	3.2 6/4

Portugal Defensive

Portugal — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Renato Veiga	9	90810 min	70.8 /90	141.6 /90	91 /90	333.7 /90	131.4 /90	30.3 /90
Nuno Mendes	9	83745 min	172.1 /90	81 /90	00 /90	597.1 /90	40.5 /90	00 /90
João Cancelo	9	69619 min	152.2 /90	131.9 /90	40.6 /90	284.1 /90	121.7 /90	20.3 /90
Rúben Dias	8	90720 min	70.9 /90	81 /90	70.9 /90	334.1 /90	81 /90	20.3 /90
Nélson Semedo	4	31124 min	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	42.9 /90	21.5 /90	10.7 /90
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Portugal — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Portugal before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Renato Veiga n 8	90	1.5 7/2	0.5 4/0	—
Diogo Costa n 8	90	0 0/0	0.3 2/0	—
Nuno Mendes n 8	84.1	0.5 2/1	2 8/5	—
Vitinha n 8	74.9	0.8 3/2	0.9 3/2	—
João Cancelo n 8	66.1	1.7 6/3	0.5 3/0	—
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Portugal — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Portugal before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Renato Veiga n 8	90	0.6 4/1
Nuno Mendes n 8	84.1	2.1 7/5
Vitinha n 8	74.9	0.8 3/2
João Cancelo n 8	66.1	2.2 5/4
Rúben Dias n 8	90	0.9 3/3
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Portugal Attacking

Portugal — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Cristiano Ronaldo	6	85508 min	30.5 /90	00 /90	193.4 /90	111.9 /90	10.2 /90	00 /90
João Félix	6	79473 min	20.4 /90	10.2 /90	81.5 /90	40.8 /90	81.5 /90	91.7 /90
Francisco Conceição	6	46275 min	00 /90	00 /90	31 /90	00 /90	103.3 /90	51.6 /90
Rafael Leão	6	41245 min	00 /90	10.4 /90	41.5 /90	10.4 /90	51.8 /90	103.7 /90
Gonçalo Ramos	5	60302 min	41.2 /90	10.3 /90	113.3 /90	72.1 /90	41.2 /90	10.3 /90
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Portugal — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Portugal before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Renato Veiga n 8	90	0.5 3/1	0 0/0
Diogo Costa n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Nuno Mendes n 8	84.1	0.5 4/0	0.1 1/0
Vitinha n 8	74.9	1.1 4/3	0.6 3/1
João Cancelo n 8	66.1	1.2 4/1	0.7 2/1
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Portugal — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Portugal before kick-off, to 4 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Diogo Costa n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Renato Veiga n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Nuno Mendes n 8	84.1	0.1 1/0	0.3 2/0
Vitinha n 8	74.9	0.2 1/0	0 0/0
João Cancelo n 8	66.1	0.3 2/0	0.2 1/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Wales v Portugal — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

WalesDLLWL

Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 0.6 scored / 1.2 conceded per game

PortugalLWWWW

Last 5: 4W 0D 1L · 1.8 scored / 1 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 1

Wales 0 · 0 draws · Portugal 1 · 1 goals/game

2026-09-24 Portugal 1–0 Wales

League standing · 2026/27

Wales#3 pos3 pts4 pl-3 GD

Portugal#1 pos12 pts4 pl+5 GD

Goals per game

Wales scored0.5

Portugal scored2.25

Wales conceded1.25

Portugal conceded1

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Expected goals (xG)

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Win probability & value

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Wales v Portugal?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Wales v Portugal is Away win.
What is the head-to-head record between Wales and Portugal?: In their last 1 meetings, Wales won 0, Portugal won 1 and there were 0 draws, averaging 1 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Wales and Portugal?: Recent form — Wales 1W 1D 3L; Portugal 4W 0D 1L.

Today’s Boards

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 11 Nov 2026, 00:58 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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