Serie A top scorers 2026/27

Expected points (xPts) from match expected goals, beside actual points · Updated 2026-10-31 · 90 matches with xG on both sides · xG source: understat

As of 31 October 2026, Venezia have 7.2 fewer points than their expected goals suggest — the unluckiest side in Serie A on expected points. Lazio are the luckiest (9.1 more). Inter lead the Serie A on 25 points; they also top the expected-points column on 20.2 xPts.

#	Club	P	Pts	xPts	Diff
1	Inter	9	25	20.2	+4.8
2	Lazio	9	25	15.9	+9.1
3	AS Roma	9	21	17.8	+3.2
4	Como	9	20	16.5	+3.5
5	AC Milan	9	18	16.3	+1.7
6	Frosinone	9	17	10.5	+6.5
7	Juventus	9	14	18.1	-4.1
8	Napoli	9	14	18.1	-4.1
9	Torino	9	13	12.0	+1.0
10	Cagliari	9	13	9.3	+3.7
11	Bologna	9	11	14.1	-3.1
12	Atalanta	9	11	9.1	+1.9
13	Genoa	9	10	9.1	+0.9
14	Lecce	9	9	8.2	+0.8
15	Sassuolo	9	8	9.9	-1.9
16	Monza	9	7	11.4	-4.4
17	Fiorentina	9	5	11.1	-6.1
18	Udinese	9	5	7.7	-2.7
19	Parma	9	5	7.2	-2.2
20	Venezia	9	3	10.2	-7.2

Sorted by actual points. Diff = points − xPts. Download this table as CSV.

How to Read This Table

Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a side created and conceded; expected points convert each match’s xG pair into the points a side would earn on average from chances of that quality. A club well above its xPts has been winning tighter matches than the chances suggest; a club well below has been losing them. Neither is a prediction on its own, but a large gap is the first thing to check before trusting a position in the real table.

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Questions This Page Answers

What is an xG table?: An xG (expected-goals) table replaces goals with expected goals. For every finished Serie A match, each club’s expected points (xPts) are computed from the two sides’ expected goals using a Poisson goal model; the table then shows those xPts beside the points actually won.
How is xPts calculated?: For each match the probabilities of a home win, a draw and an away win are derived from the two expected-goal figures (a Poisson model over 0–10 goals per side). xPts for a side is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw). A club’s season xPts is the sum over its matches with expected-goals data on both sides.
What does the diff column mean?: Diff is actual points minus expected points. A positive number means the club has taken more points than its underlying chances suggest — often finishing or goalkeeping above the model, or luck; a negative number means the reverse. Over a season the column tends to shrink towards zero.

Expected goals and expected points are model estimates, not guarantees. 18+ — please gamble responsibly (BeGambleAware.org).