Holstein Kiel v 1. FC Nürnberg result

Full-time · Holstein Kiel 2–2 1. FC Nürnberg

2. Bundesliga · · Holstein-Stadion

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Holstein Kiel · 1. FC Nürnberg · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Holstein Kiel 2–2 1. FC Nürnberg — this 2. Bundesliga match was drawn. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
Best price: 1.63 at Unibet
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 67% of 581 landed (95% range 63–70.7%); it had given them 76.4% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Nürnberg drew 2–2 at Holstein-Stadion in the 2. Bundesliga on Saturday 5 September. 1. FC Nürnberg are unbeaten in their last 10 matches in all competitions.

The goals

It was 1–1 at half-time. The goals — 1. FC Nürnberg: A. Marhiev (41’, assisted by J. Fernandez) and P. Scobel (56’, assisted by A. Marhiev); Holstein Kiel: P. Harres (45’, assisted by A. Kaprálik) and A. Kaprálik (50’, assisted by J. Meffert).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s four key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with P. Scobel’s goal on 56 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) tell a different story: 1. FC Nürnberg out-shot Holstein Kiel 19 to 14 and created the better chances, 1.84 xG to 0.68 (the provider’s expected goals for this match). Variance.

Discipline

Tobias Stieler, Germany showed seven yellow cards — against 3.7 yellows a game across the last 20 matches refereed (all competitions). The bookings — Holstein Kiel: A. Kaprálik (12’), D. Zec (16’), G. Balzi (36’) and Leon Parduzi (65’); 1. FC Nürnberg: E. Porstner (34’), Rafael Lubach (77’) and G. Masouras (83’).

What it changes

Holstein Kiel move up from 17th to 14th (shared) (four league matches played). Holstein Kiel have scored 10 goals, the fifth-fewest of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far). Holstein Kiel have conceded 11 goals, the fifth-fewest of the 18 clubs.

1. FC Nürnberg stay first after this result (four league matches played). 1. FC Nürnberg have scored 21 goals, the second-most of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far). 1. FC Nürnberg have conceded 12 goals, the sixth-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs.

1. FC Nürnberg have scored in 10 consecutive matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, A. Marhiev (1. FC Nürnberg) 11.3, J. Meffert (Holstein Kiel) 9.1 and A. Kaprálik (Holstein Kiel) 8.9 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

Holstein Kiel next travel to SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 1 November 2026.

1. FC Nürnberg next travel to FC St. Pauli on 1 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Holstein Kiel: SpVgg Greuther Fürth v Holstein Kiel, Sunday 1 November — the preview. Next for 1. FC Nürnberg: FC St. Pauli v 1. FC Nürnberg, Sunday 1 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Holstein Kiel 2–2 1. FC Nürnberg · 2. Bundesliga
  • Venue: Holstein-Stadion · Kiel
  • Referee: Tobias Stieler, Germany
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Holstein Kiel 3 · draws 1 · 1. FC Nürnberg 2 · 3.5 goals/game
  • Recent form: Holstein Kiel 1W 2D 2L · 1. FC Nürnberg 3W 2D 0L

Holstein Kiel 2–2 1. FC Nürnberg (2. Bundesliga): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 19 September 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.38 / 2.5
Goals
against 1.38 / 1 · 2 of the last 5 over 3
over 8 matches
5.38 / 4.43
Corners
against 5.13 / 5.71 · 4 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 7 matches
3.88 / 6.43
Shots on target
against 3.63 / 4.29 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 7 matches
3.25 / 2.29
Cards
against 2.63 / 1.86 · 5 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 7 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 30 August 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 30 August 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameHolstein Kiel for / againstLine1. FC Nürnberg for / against
Goals scored
1.38 for · 1.38 against n 8
3our book
2.5 for · 1 against n 8
Corners won
5.38 for · 5.13 against n 8
9.5standard
4.43 for · 5.71 against n 7
Shots
12.38 for · 12.75 against n 8
19.5standard
15.57 for · 14.57 against n 7
Shots on target
3.88 for · 3.63 against n 8
8.5standard
6.43 for · 4.29 against n 7
Fouls committed
15.25 for · 13.38 against n 8
21.5standard
9.86 for · 9.86 against n 7
Cards shown
3.25 for · 2.63 against n 8
3.5standard
2.29 for · 1.86 against n 7

Referee: Tobias Stieler, Germany.

Holstein Kiel

Holstein Kiel Goalkeeper

Holstein Kiel — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
T. Weiner390270 min51.7 /9041.3 /9000 /90
L. Rothenhagen19090 min33 /9000 /9000 /90
Holstein Kiel — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Holstein Kiel before kick-off, to 30 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
T. Weiner n 890
25/3

Holstein Kiel Defensive

Holstein Kiel — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
D. Zec490360 min51.3 /9010.3 /9010.3 /90215.3 /9061.5 /9000 /90
H. Sekine490360 min82 /9030.8 /9000 /90205 /9010.3 /9020.5 /90
I. Nekić490360 min61.5 /9041 /9020.5 /90174.3 /9061.5 /9020.5 /90
Leon Parduzi285170 min00 /9031.6 /9031.6 /9073.7 /9021.1 /9010.5 /90
J. Tolkin281161 min10.6 /9010.6 /9010.6 /9031.7 /9031.7 /9010.6 /90
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Holstein Kiel — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Holstein Kiel before kick-off, to 30 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
D. Zec n 889
1.38/1
1.46/4
A. Kalogeropoulos
I. Nekić n 887.6
1.37/3
15/3
A. Kalogeropoulos
P. Harres n 889.5
1.14/3
0.96/1
M. Zoma
H. Sekine n 490
0.31/0
0.52/0
A. Kalogeropoulos
J. Meffert n 887
1.36/4
0.53/1
J. Fernandez
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Holstein Kiel — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Holstein Kiel before kick-off, to 30 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
H. Sekine n 490
24/3
D. Zec n 889
1.36/4
I. Nekić n 887.6
1.35/3
P. Harres n 889.5
0.11/0
J. Meffert n 887
1.35/3
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Holstein Kiel Attacking

Holstein Kiel — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
P. Harres490360 min30.8 /9020.5 /90133.3 /9071.8 /9051.3 /9041 /90
G. de Regt23161 min00 /9000 /9023 /9000 /9011.5 /9011.5 /90
J. Meffert489355 min00 /9000 /9030.8 /9010.3 /9030.8 /9010.3 /90
G. Balzi486344 min20.5 /9000 /9061.6 /9041 /90123.1 /90112.9 /90
A. Kaprálik485338 min00 /9020.5 /9041.1 /9000 /9061.6 /9030.8 /90
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Holstein Kiel — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Holstein Kiel before kick-off, to 30 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
P. Harres n 889.5
26/5
1.36/4
H. Sekine n 490
1.54/2
00/0
D. Zec n 889
0.65/0
0.11/0
I. Nekić n 887.6
0.32/0
0.11/0
J. Meffert n 887
0.42/1
0.11/0
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Holstein Kiel — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Holstein Kiel before kick-off, to 30 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
P. Harres n 889.5
0.85/1
0.43/0
H. Sekine n 490
00/0
00/0
D. Zec n 889
00/0
00/0
I. Nekić n 887.6
00/0
00/0
J. Meffert n 887
00/0
00/0
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1. FC Nürnberg

1. FC Nürnberg Goalkeeper

1. FC Nürnberg — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
J. Reichert390270 min93 /9031 /9010.3 /90
1. FC Nürnberg — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for 1. FC Nürnberg before kick-off, to 30 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
J. Reichert n 890
2.94/4

1. FC Nürnberg Defensive

1. FC Nürnberg — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
A. Kalogeropoulos390270 min10.3 /9031 /9031 /9051.7 /9041.3 /9000 /90
E. Porstner382246 min51.8 /9031.1 /9010.4 /90103.7 /9041.5 /9010.4 /90
T. Janisch366197 min20.9 /9000 /9010.5 /9062.7 /9020.9 /9000 /90
G. Masouras32473 min44.9 /9011.2 /9000 /90911.1 /9000 /9000 /90
F. Otto290180 min10.5 /9021 /9010.5 /9094.5 /9000 /9000 /90
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1. FC Nürnberg — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for 1. FC Nürnberg before kick-off, to 30 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
A. Marhiev n 889.9
1.67/5
1.57/3
—
A. Kalogeropoulos n 390
1.31/1
00/0
H. Sekine
J. Reichert n 890
00/0
0.31/1
—
M. Zoma n 879.1
0.64/0
14/2
P. Harres
J. Fernandez n 884.6
28/4
0.84/2
J. Meffert
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1. FC Nürnberg — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for 1. FC Nürnberg before kick-off, to 30 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
A. Marhiev n 889.9
2.98/5
A. Kalogeropoulos n 390
0.31/0
M. Zoma n 879.1
13/1
J. Fernandez n 884.6
1.76/3
F. Becker n 882
0.53/1
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1. FC Nürnberg Attacking

1. FC Nürnberg — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
P. Scobel381243 min20.7 /9010.4 /9072.6 /9041.5 /9041.5 /9000 /90
S. Haugen12020 min00 /9000 /9014.5 /9014.5 /9000 /9000 /90
A. Marhiev390270 min20.7 /9000 /9031 /9020.7 /9051.7 /9031 /90
M. Zoma386258 min41.4 /9000 /90103.5 /9072.4 /9020.7 /9093.1 /90
J. Fernandez386257 min00 /9000 /9041.4 /9031.1 /9031.1 /9062.1 /90
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1. FC Nürnberg — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for 1. FC Nürnberg before kick-off, to 30 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
A. Marhiev n 889.9
0.84/2
0.42/1
J. Reichert n 890
00/0
00/0
A. Kalogeropoulos n 390
00/0
00/0
M. Zoma n 879.1
38/7
1.86/4
J. Fernandez n 884.6
1.25/4
0.74/1
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1. FC Nürnberg — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for 1. FC Nürnberg before kick-off, to 30 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
A. Marhiev n 889.9
0.31/1
0.11/0
J. Reichert n 890
00/0
00/0
A. Kalogeropoulos n 390
00/0
00/0
M. Zoma n 879.1
1.15/2
0.11/0
J. Fernandez n 884.6
00/0
0.11/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Holstein Kiel1. FC Nürnberg
44%Possession56%
0.68Expected goals (xG)1.84
14Shots19
3Shots on target7
4Shots off target9
7Blocked shots3
9Shots inside the box13
10Corners8
1Offsides1
17Fouls14
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
4Saves1
331Passes431
79%Pass accuracy80%

Holstein Kiel Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
D. Zec90000011Y6
G. Balzi90001112Y6.9
P. Harres9010311007.9
A. Kaprálik90112133Y8.2
J. Meffert9001003406.9
I. Nekić9000100306.5
H. Sekine9000000707.7
T. Weiner9000000006.2
K. Davidsen7900000106.2
J. Therkelsen6300001006.2
J. Tolkin6300001206.5
G. de Regt sub2700000306.6
Leon Parduzi sub27000004Y7.3
T. Tasdelen sub1100000006.7

1. FC Nürnberg Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
J. Fernandez9001002006.9
A. Kalogeropoulos9000100207.5
A. Marhiev9011213307.6
F. Otto9000000106.2
E. Porstner90000042Y6.5
J. Reichert9000000006.2
M. Zoma8500224006.6
P. Scobel8510620007.2
T. Janisch7200000107.2
F. Becker6300222006.3
J. Justvan6300100106.2
W. Bøving sub2700200106.7
Rafael Lubach sub27000021Y6.5
G. Masouras sub18000000Y6.3
R. Ghrieb sub900000006.5
S. Haugen sub900000006.5

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Holstein Kiel v 1. FC Nürnberg — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Holstein KielLDDWL
Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · 1.4 scored / 1.6 conceded per game
1. FC NürnbergDWWDW
Last 5: 3W 2D 0L · 3 scored / 1.4 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Holstein Kiel 3 · 1 draw · 1. FC Nürnberg 2 · 3.5 goals/game
  • 2026-03-14 Holstein Kiel 2–3 1. FC Nürnberg
  • 2025-10-19 1. FC Nürnberg 1–1 Holstein Kiel
  • 2024-04-06 FC Nurnberg 0–4 Holstein Kiel
  • 2023-10-29 Holstein Kiel 0–2 FC Nurnberg
  • 2023-04-15 Holstein Kiel 2–1 FC Nurnberg
  • 2022-10-09 FC Nurnberg 2–3 Holstein Kiel
League standing · 2026/27
Holstein Kiel#13 pos8 pts9 pl-1 GD
1. FC Nürnberg#2 pos18 pts9 pl+9 GD
Goals per game
Holstein Kiel scored1.11
1. FC Nürnberg scored2.33
Holstein Kiel conceded1.22
1. FC Nürnberg conceded1.33

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Holstein Kiel v 1. FC Nürnberg?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Holstein Kiel v 1. FC Nürnberg was Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.63 at Unibet).
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Nürnberg?
In their last 6 meetings, Holstein Kiel won 3, 1. FC Nürnberg won 2 and there was 1 draw, averaging 3.5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Nürnberg?
Recent form — Holstein Kiel 1W 2D 2L; 1. FC Nürnberg 3W 2D 0L.

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