Locked: The TACTIX 2026/27 Season Projections, on the Record Before Kickoff

Locked 9 August 2026 · 6 leagues · fingerprint 9bc4630a371c4251…

Before the 2026–27 season kicks off, this page freezes what the TACTIX season simulations said at the start — so that next May, our record is checkable, not claimable. Probabilities are odds to weigh, not promises: a 25% title chance means that in three of four simulated seasons it did not happen. The point of the lock is honesty in both directions.

Bundesliga

Simulated 10,000 times on 2026-08-08. The opening picture:

• Bayern München — title 97.7% · top zone 100.0% · avg 88.4 pts
• Borussia Dortmund — title 2.1% · top zone 94.3% · avg 70.4 pts
• VfB Stuttgart — title 0.1% · top zone 58.9% · avg 60.7 pts
• Bayer Leverkusen — title 0.1% · top zone 55.7% · avg 60.3 pts

Most at risk at the bottom: Werder Bremen (55.7%) · FC Schalke 04 (54.2%) · SV Elversberg (53.6%).

Championship

Simulated 10,000 times on 2026-08-08. The opening picture:

• Burnley — title 22.3% · top zone 41.2% · avg 83.1 pts
• West Ham — title 21.0% · top zone 40.0% · avg 82.9 pts
• Wolves — title 21.1% · top zone 39.7% · avg 82.8 pts
• Southampton — title 17.8% · top zone 34.9% · avg 81.8 pts

Most at risk at the bottom: Cardiff (56.8%) · Bolton (56.7%) · Lincoln (55.8%).

La Liga

Simulated 10,000 times on 2026-08-08. The opening picture:

• Barcelona — title 76.9% · top zone 100.0% · avg 89.7 pts
• Real Madrid — title 20.5% · top zone 98.8% · avg 82 pts
• Villarreal — title 2.0% · top zone 81.2% · avg 71.5 pts
• Atletico Madrid — title 0.5% · top zone 58.9% · avg 66.5 pts

Most at risk at the bottom: Malaga (51.3%) · Deportivo La Coruna (51.2%) · Racing Santander (50.4%).

Ligue 1

Simulated 10,000 times on 2026-08-08. The opening picture:

• Paris Saint-Germain — title 77.3% · top zone 98.3% · avg 76.1 pts
• Lens — title 16.9% · top zone 82.1% · avg 67.4 pts
• Marseille — title 2.3% · top zone 34.0% · avg 58.4 pts
• Lille — title 1.5% · top zone 27.1% · avg 57.1 pts

Most at risk at the bottom: Angers (57.4%) · Estac Troyes (55.1%) · Le Mans (54.9%).

Premier League

Simulated 10,000 times on 2026-08-08. The opening picture:

• Arsenal — title 60.2% · top zone 99.7% · avg 82.9 pts
• Manchester City — title 37.8% · top zone 98.9% · avg 79.9 pts
• Manchester United — title 1.3% · top zone 61.6% · avg 64.3 pts
• Liverpool — title 0.3% · top zone 29.8% · avg 58.4 pts

Most at risk at the bottom: Coventry (65.8%) · Ipswich (65.6%) · Hull City (65.6%).

Serie A

Simulated 10,000 times on 2026-08-08. The opening picture:

• Inter — title 68.5% · top zone 98.4% · avg 84.4 pts
• Como — title 18.0% · top zone 86.9% · avg 76.7 pts
• AS Roma — title 5.6% · top zone 65.2% · avg 71.4 pts
• Juventus — title 4.8% · top zone 59.7% · avg 70.3 pts

Most at risk at the bottom: Lecce (56.3%) · Parma (42.3%) · Frosinone (41.3%).

How This Lock Is Verifiable

The fingerprint above is the SHA-256 of the canonical projections JSON: for each league in slug order, {slug, run_date, teams:[{name, pTitle, pTop, pRel, meanPts}]} in published team order, serialised with JSON.stringify. At the moment of lock, the TACTIX pick ledger — a hash-chained, append-only record — stood at sequence 159 (day 2026-08-08, head c09e640398fc5d74…). Full season projections stay live on the supercomputer; the model’s settled record lives on the accuracy leaderboard and the scoreboard.

18+. Model-informed analysis, not betting advice; probabilities are estimates of likelihood — odds to weigh, not promises. Please gamble responsibly — BeGambleAware.org.