Issue #2 · week 2026-W34 · simulations updated 16 August 2026 · 10,000 season simulations per league
The TACTIX Simulation Report is the weekly, numbered record of what our season simulations say — and how they moved. Every number below is the same number the live Supercomputer hub shows; the deltas compare this run with the previous one.
Three Lines You Can Quote
- Arsenal won the Premier League title in 58.6% of 10,000 simulations of the 2026/27 season. (TACTIX Simulation Report #2)
- The gap at the top: Arsenal 58.6% vs Manchester City 39.3% — a 19.3-point difference in title likelihood. (TACTIX Simulation Report #2)
- 3 of 20 Premier League clubs took the title in at least 1% of simulations. (TACTIX Simulation Report #2)
Premier League 2026/27 — The Full Movement Table
| # | Club | Title | Δ | Top 4 | Relegation | Avg pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 58.6% | +50.0pp | 99.7% | 0% | 82.4 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 39.3% | −30.0pp | 98.9% | 0% | 79.7 |
| 3 | Manchester United | 1.4% | −20.0pp | 59.6% | <0.1% | 64.1 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 0.2% | −10.0pp | 24.0% | 1.0% | 57 |
| 5 | Aston Villa | <0.1% | −10.0pp | 21.9% | 1.2% | 56.4 |
| 6 | Bournemouth | 0.1% | · | 20.3% | 1.1% | 56.1 |
| 7 | Brighton | 0.1% | · | 18.9% | 1.3% | 55.7 |
| 8 | Chelsea | 0.1% | +10.0pp | 18.8% | 1.3% | 55.6 |
| 9 | Brentford | <0.1% | · | 13.4% | 2.3% | 53.7 |
| 10 | Newcastle | <0.1% | · | 5.6% | 5.5% | 50 |
| 11 | Nottingham Forest | <0.1% | · | 4.3% | 7.5% | 48.9 |
| 12 | Everton | 0% | · | 4.3% | 7.6% | 48.8 |
| 13 | Fulham | 0% | · | 3.7% | 9.1% | 48.2 |
| 14 | Leeds | 0% | · | 2.3% | 13.4% | 46.4 |
| 15 | Sunderland | 0% | · | 2.2% | 13.3% | 46.3 |
| 16 | Tottenham | 0% | · | 1.3% | 17.4% | 44.9 |
| 17 | Crystal Palace | <0.1% | · | 0.9% | 22.4% | 43.5 |
| 18 | Coventry | 0% | · | <0.1% | 64.8% | 35.8 |
| 19 | Hull City | 0% | · | <0.1% | 65.0% | 35.5 |
| 20 | Ipswich | 0% | · | <0.1% | 65.8% | 35.4 |
Club by Club
One line per club, for the beat writer who covers exactly one of them:
- Arsenal (1/20 by simulation) — title 58.6% (+50.0pp on the last run), top four 99.7%, averaging 82.4 pts.
- Manchester City (2/20 by simulation) — title 39.3% (−30.0pp on the last run), top four 98.9%, averaging 79.7 pts.
- Manchester United (3/20 by simulation) — title 1.4% (−20.0pp on the last run), top four 59.6%, averaging 64.1 pts.
- Liverpool (4/20 by simulation) — top four 24.0% (title −10.0pp), relegation 1.0%, averaging 57 pts.
- Aston Villa (5/20 by simulation) — top four 21.9% (title −10.0pp), relegation 1.2%, averaging 56.4 pts.
- Bournemouth (6/20 by simulation) — top four 20.3%, relegation 1.1%, averaging 56.1 pts.
- Brighton (7/20 by simulation) — top four 18.9%, relegation 1.3%, averaging 55.7 pts.
- Chelsea (8/20 by simulation) — top four 18.8% (title +10.0pp), relegation 1.3%, averaging 55.6 pts.
- Brentford (9/20 by simulation) — top four 13.4%, relegation 2.3%, averaging 53.7 pts.
- Newcastle (10/20 by simulation) — relegation 5.5% (−30.0pp), top-half push 5.6%, averaging 50 pts.
- Nottingham Forest (11/20 by simulation) — relegation 7.5% (−80.0pp), top-half push 4.3%, averaging 48.9 pts.
- Everton (12/20 by simulation) — relegation 7.6% (+40.0pp), top-half push 4.3%, averaging 48.8 pts.
- Fulham (13/20 by simulation) — relegation 9.1% (+70.0pp), top-half push 3.7%, averaging 48.2 pts.
- Leeds (14/20 by simulation) — relegation 13.4% (−40.0pp), top-half push 2.3%, averaging 46.4 pts.
- Sunderland (15/20 by simulation) — relegation 13.3% (+70.0pp), top-half push 2.2%, averaging 46.3 pts.
- Tottenham (16/20 by simulation) — relegation 17.4% (+10.0pp), top-half push 1.3%, averaging 44.9 pts.
- Crystal Palace (17/20 by simulation) — relegation 22.4% (−50.0pp), top-half push 0.9%, averaging 43.5 pts.
- Coventry (18/20 by simulation) — relegation 64.8% (+30.0pp), top-half push <0.1%, averaging 35.8 pts.
- Hull City (19/20 by simulation) — relegation 65.0% (+20.0pp), top-half push <0.1%, averaging 35.5 pts.
- Ipswich (20/20 by simulation) — relegation 65.8% (−40.0pp), top-half push <0.1%, averaging 35.4 pts.
Movers Elsewhere
- Bundesliga: Wolfsberger AC — top spots 57.0% (−1030.0pp).
- Challenger Pro League: Patro Eisden — top spots 28.3% (+1060.0pp).
- Jupiler Pro League: Club Brugge KV — title 46.9% (+1120.0pp).
- Série A: Palmeiras — title 60.1% (−940.0pp).
- Bundesliga: Bayer Leverkusen — top spots 56.4% (−50.0pp).
- Championship: Millwall — top spots 11.7% (+410.0pp).
- Super League: Shandong Luneng — top spots 35.8% (−1170.0pp).
- Superliga: FC Nordsjaelland — top spots 90.0% (+500.0pp).
- League One: Plymouth — top spots 29.1% (−1780.0pp).
- League Two: Chesterfield — top spots 18.4% (−1160.0pp).
- National League: Carlisle — title 7.4% (−550.0pp).
- Ligue 2: RED Star FC 93 — top spots 15.7% (+360.0pp).
- 2. Bundesliga: Hertha BSC — top spots 41.8% (+1280.0pp).
- Super League 1: Aris Thessalonikis — top spots 35.8% (−410.0pp).
- Serie B: Modena — top spots 39.3% (−90.0pp).
- La Liga: Atletico Madrid — top spots 60.3% (+260.0pp).
- Ligue 1: Marseille — top spots 39.1% (+490.0pp).
- Eredivisie: PSV Eindhoven — title 75.9% (+430.0pp).
- Eliteserien: Bodo/Glimt — title 79.8% (−360.0pp).
- Ekstraklasa: Gornik Zabrze — title 22.0% (+100.0pp).
- Primeira Liga: FC Porto — title 41.4% (+650.0pp).
- Saudi Pro League: Al-Nassr — title 47.5% (+690.0pp).
- Serie A: AC Milan — top spots 24.8% (−240.0pp).
- Segunda División: Burgos — top spots 10.8% (−890.0pp).
- Allsvenskan: Sirius — title 89.7% (−490.0pp).
- Süper Lig: Fenerbahçe — top spots 61.3% (−1180.0pp).
- Premier League: Karpaty — title 1.5% (+80.0pp).
- Cymru Premier: Colwyn Bay — top spots 52.3% (−1580.0pp).
Model vs the Market, This Week
The model’s settled hit rate against the bookmaker favourite, from the live accuracy leaderboard (last-12-months window, all leagues, losers included):
| Market | Settled picks | Model | Bookmaker favourite | Model − favourite | Δ model since last issue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| player_cards_yellow_under_0_5 | 7,165 | 94.1% | — | — | · |
| clean_sheet | 5,247 | 31.0% | 38.1% | -7.1 pp | · |
| win_to_nil | 5,246 | 24.3% | — | — | · |
Baseline set this issue — week-over-week movement starts with the next one.
Hit rate answers “who picks winners more often” — it is not a profitability claim; probabilities are odds to weigh, not promises. Definitions and every league’s cells: the leaderboard.
Method, in One Paragraph
Each covered league is simulated thousands of times from the current table and remaining fixtures, using the same calibrated match model that prices every prediction on the site. Probabilities are model estimates — odds to weigh, not promises. The live, always-current version of every table on this page is at tactix.football/supercomputer; embeddable versions are free at /widgets with the credit intact. Cite this issue as “TACTIX Simulation Report #2”.
This post is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically. How it works →
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