This Matchweek

BoltonStoke City

Bolton v Stoke City result

Full-time · Bolton 1–2 Stoke City

Championship · · Toughsheet Community Stadium

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Bolton · Stoke City

The model’s pre-match pick

Bolton 1–2 Stoke City — Stoke City won this Championship match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Away.

Free pick
Home or Away
Best price: 1.35 at William Hill
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.7% of 5142 landed (95% range 76.5–78.8%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Stoke City won 2–1 at Toughsheet Community Stadium in the Championship on Saturday 10 October. Stoke City have scored in 11 consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

Stoke City led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — Stoke City: L. Cissé (45’, assisted by Ethan Galbraith) and Benjamin Wilmot (62’, assisted by Jack McGlynn); Bolton: Thelonius Bair (90’, assisted by Gaizka Larrazabal). Maksym Talovierov (20’) was sent off.

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s four key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with L. Cissé’s goal on 45 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) tell a different story: Bolton out-shot Stoke City 30 to 9 and created the better chances, 3.13 xG to 0.74 (the provider’s expected goals for this match). Context.

Discipline

Thomas Kirk, England showed two yellow cards and one red — against 3.9 yellows a game across the last 10 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Bolton: Max Conway (72’); Stoke City: Jack McGlynn (34’).

What it changes

Bolton have scored 19 goals, the 10th-fewest (shared) of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 14 games). Bolton have conceded 26 goals, the fourth-most (shared) of the 24 clubs.

Stoke City have scored 22 goals, the eighth-most (shared) of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 14 games). Stoke City have conceded 17 goals, the sixth-fewest (shared) of the 24 clubs.

Stoke City are unbeaten in their last six matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, L. Cissé (Stoke City) 6.5, Gaizka Larrazabal (Bolton) 5.9 and Max Conway (Bolton) 5.4 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Bolton or Stoke City (no draw), a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 77.7% of the time in the last 90 days (3993 of 5142).

Next up

Bolton next travel to Derby on 6 November 2026.

Stoke City next travel to Portsmouth on 7 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Bolton: Derby v Bolton, Friday 6 November — the preview. Next for Stoke City: Portsmouth v Stoke City, Saturday 7 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Bolton 1–2 Stoke City · Championship
  • Venue: Toughsheet Community Stadium · Bolton
  • Referee: Thomas Kirk, England
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 2): Bolton 0 · draws 1 · Stoke City 1 · 1 goals/game
  • Recent form: Bolton 2W 0D 3L · Stoke City 4W 1D 0L

Bolton 1–2 Stoke City (Championship): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 24 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.38 / 1.63
Goals
against 1.88 / 1.38 · 4 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
5.38 / 4.57
Corners
against 4.88 / 4.57 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 7 matches
4.75 / 4.29
Shots on target
against 5.75 / 4.86 · 5 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 7 matches
1.63 / 3
Cards
against 1.63 / 2.57 · 1 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 7 matches
3.9 yellows
Referee · Thomas Kirk, England
20.6 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 10 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 20 September 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 20 September 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameBolton for / againstLineStoke City for / against
Goals scored
1.38 for · 1.88 against n 8
2.5our book
1.63 for · 1.38 against n 8
Corners won
5.38 for · 4.88 against n 8
9.5standard
4.57 for · 4.57 against n 7
Shots
12.25 for · 12.38 against n 8
19.5standard
13 for · 15 against n 7
Shots on target
4.75 for · 5.75 against n 8
8.5standard
4.29 for · 4.86 against n 7
Fouls committed
11 for · 11.13 against n 8
21.5standard
15.71 for · 11.43 against n 7
Cards shown
1.63 for · 1.63 against n 8
3.5standard
3 for · 2.57 against n 7

Referee: Thomas Kirk, England — 3.9 yellow cards a game, 0.1 red cards, 20.6 fouls over 10 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Bolton

Bolton Goalkeeper

Bolton — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
J. Bonham691547 min172.8 /90101.6 /9000 /90
Gavin Bazunu390270 min155 /9062 /9000 /90
Bolton — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bolton before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
J. Bonham n 890.9
2.75/2
Gavin Bazunu n 390
52/2

Bolton Defensive

Bolton — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
M. Conway873582 min192.9 /90101.5 /9060.9 /90436.6 /9040.6 /9000 /90
Gaizka Larrazabal868541 min61 /90122 /9000 /90183 /90101.7 /9010.2 /90
C. Forino-Joseph788616 min182.6 /90142 /9081.2 /90527.6 /9020.3 /9010.1 /90
B. Davies680481 min40.7 /9050.9 /9010.2 /90224.1 /9020.4 /9010.2 /90
A. Famewo675449 min112.2 /9061.2 /9010.2 /90377.4 /9061.2 /9020.4 /90
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Bolton — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bolton before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
J. Sheehan n 889.5
1.55/4
1.87/4
E. Bocat
S. Dalby n 879.8
1.47/2
1.15/2
—
T. Gale n 868
0.73/1
0.83/2
—
M. Conway n 872.8
0.64/0
1.24/2
B. Wilmot
Gaizka Larrazabal n 867.6
1.76/3
0.73/1
B. Wilmot
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Bolton — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bolton before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
J. Sheehan n 889.5
1.16/2
S. Dalby n 879.8
14/2
T. Gale n 868
14/2
M. Conway n 872.8
2.96/3
Gaizka Larrazabal n 867.6
14/1
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Bolton Attacking

Bolton — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
S. Dalby982735 min30.4 /9000 /90101.2 /9050.6 /9070.9 /9020.2 /90
K. Dong746325 min00 /9010.3 /9041.1 /9010.3 /9030.8 /9010.3 /90
R. Hardie32164 min00 /9000 /9011.4 /9000 /9022.8 /9000 /90
J. Nelson31751 min00 /9000 /9035.3 /9023.5 /9023.5 /9023.5 /90
Thelonius Bair23875 min00 /9011.2 /9000 /9000 /9011.2 /9000 /90
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Bolton — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bolton before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
J. Sheehan n 889.5
1.36/2
0.65/0
S. Dalby n 879.8
1.36/2
0.74/1
T. Gale n 868
1.55/3
0.85/0
M. Conway n 872.8
0.21/0
00/0
Gaizka Larrazabal n 867.6
0.84/1
0.31/1
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Bolton — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bolton before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
J. Sheehan n 889.5
00/0
00/0
S. Dalby n 879.8
0.43/0
00/0
T. Gale n 868
0.53/0
0.21/0
M. Conway n 872.8
00/0
0.21/0
Gaizka Larrazabal n 867.6
0.21/0
00/0
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Stoke City

Stoke City Goalkeeper

Stoke City — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
V. Johansson991817 min293.2 /90121.3 /9000 /90
Stoke City — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Stoke City before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
V. Johansson n 890
36/4

Stoke City Defensive

Stoke City — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
B. Wilmot986772 min91 /90172 /9080.9 /90354.1 /90101.2 /9010.1 /90
E. Bocat981729 min121.5 /90141.7 /9000 /90303.7 /9030.4 /9010.1 /90
Luke Graham791637 min111.6 /90111.6 /9020.3 /90436.1 /9050.7 /9020.3 /90
Bosun Lawal574368 min41 /9030.7 /9051.2 /90153.7 /9071.7 /9030.7 /90
M. Talovierov564322 min30.8 /9030.8 /9030.8 /90164.5 /9041.1 /9010.3 /90
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Stoke City — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Stoke City before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
V. Johansson n 890
00/0
0.11/0
—
E. Galbraith n 890
1.86/5
1.15/3
—
B. Wilmot n 884.4
1.25/2
0.32/0
Gaizka Larrazabal
E. Bocat n 879
0.43/0
14/2
J. Sheehan
El Hadji Djibril Soumaré n 874.5
1.75/5
1.75/3
—
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Stoke City — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Stoke City before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
E. Galbraith n 890
1.46/3
B. Wilmot n 884.4
1.26/3
E. Bocat n 879
1.75/4
El Hadji Djibril Soumaré n 874.5
2.17/4
Luke Graham n 791
1.65/4
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Stoke City Attacking

Stoke City — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
S. Gallagher757396 min20.5 /9010.2 /9092 /9051.1 /9030.7 /9010.2 /90
George Hirst752362 min10.2 /9000 /9051.2 /9030.7 /9000 /9000 /90
R. Boženík736251 min10.4 /9010.4 /9072.5 /9020.7 /9031.1 /9010.4 /90
L. Cissé556280 min00 /9010.3 /9072.3 /9010.3 /9051.6 /9051.6 /90
J. Devenny474297 min20.6 /9000 /9061.8 /9041.2 /9061.8 /9020.6 /90
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Stoke City — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Stoke City before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
V. Johansson n 890
00/0
00/0
E. Galbraith n 890
0.84/2
0.64/1
B. Wilmot n 884.4
0.42/1
00/0
E. Bocat n 879
1.37/2
0.43/0
El Hadji Djibril Soumaré n 874.5
0.32/0
0.21/0
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Stoke City — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Stoke City before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
V. Johansson n 890
00/0
00/0
E. Galbraith n 890
0.43/0
0.11/0
B. Wilmot n 884.4
00/0
00/0
E. Bocat n 879
0.32/0
0.31/1
El Hadji Djibril Soumaré n 874.5
00/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
BoltonStoke City
68%Possession32%
3.13Expected goals (xG)0.74
30Shots9
5Shots on target4
14Shots off target4
11Blocked shots1
23Shots inside the box6
10Corners4
0Offsides2
8Fouls9
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards1
2Saves4
547Passes269
92%Pass accuracy69%

Bolton Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
M. Conway90000023Y7.2
Gavin Bazunu9000000006.5
J. Sheehan9000204308.7
Gaizka Larrazabal9001103006.9
S. Dalby9000610005.6
E. Toal9000000206.6
B. Davies8200000006.9
Ruben Rodrigues6300004207.2
T. Gale5600200106.3
K. Dong5600111006.3
E. Erhahon4500000107
A. Ito sub4500102006.3
J. Nelson sub3400311207.2
S. Iling-Junior sub3400001107
R. Hardie sub2700101107.2
Thelonius Bair sub810221008

Stoke City Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
B. Wilmot9010210007.6
Ben Johnson9000001307.3
Luke Graham9000000307.5
E. Galbraith9001112107.2
E. Bocat9000000107.2
V. Johansson9000000007.3
El Hadji Djibril Soumaré6900000307.3
J. McGlynn69011042Y7.6
L. Cissé6910210108
J. Devenny4500000006.3
B. Lawal2100100106.4
M. Talovierov20000001R4.3
Luca Bombino sub4500110306.6
George Hirst sub2100000006.5
J. Tchamadeu sub2100000006.3
Bosun Lawal sub2100100106.5

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Bolton v Stoke City — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
BoltonLLLWW
Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · 1.8 scored / 2.6 conceded per game
Stoke CityWWDWW
Last 5: 4W 1D 0L · 2 scored / 0.6 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 2
Bolton 0 · 1 draw · Stoke City 1 · 1 goals/game
  • 2018-12-29 Bolton 0–0 Stoke City
  • 2018-10-02 Stoke City 2–0 Bolton
League standing · 2026/27
Bolton#17 pos17 pts14 pl-7 GD
Stoke City#4 pos26 pts14 pl+5 GD
Goals per game
Bolton scored1.36
Stoke City scored1.57
Bolton conceded1.86
Stoke City conceded1.21

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Bolton v Stoke City?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Bolton v Stoke City was Home or Away (best price 1.35 at William Hill).
What is the head-to-head record between Bolton and Stoke City?
In their last 2 meetings, Bolton won 0, Stoke City won 1 and there was 1 draw, averaging 1 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Bolton and Stoke City?
Recent form — Bolton 2W 0D 3L; Stoke City 4W 1D 0L.

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