This Matchweek

BurnleyDerby

Burnley v Derby result

Full-time · Burnley 1–1 Derby

Championship · · Turf Moor

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Burnley · Derby

The model’s pre-match pick

Burnley 1–1 Derby — this Championship match was drawn. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Away.

Free pick
Home or Away
Best price: 1.29 at William Hill
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.6% of 5130 landed (95% range 76.5–78.8%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Burnley and Derby drew 1–1 at Turf Moor in the Championship on Saturday 19 September. Burnley are winless in at least their last 15 matches in all competitions. Derby are winless in their last four matches in all competitions.

The goals

Burnley led 1–0 at half-time and were pegged back. The goals — Burnley: Zeki Amdouni (34’, assisted by Lucas Pires); Derby: Mohammed Fuseini (90’, assisted by Rhian Brewster).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s two key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Mohammed Fuseini’s goal on 90 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) tell a different story: Derby out-shot Burnley 17 to 6 and created the better chances, 1.75 xG to 0.45 (the provider’s expected goals for this match). Variance.

Discipline

The bookings — Burnley: Igor (31’), Anel Ahmedhodžić (56’), J. Laurent (68’) and Ugo Raghouber (86’); Derby: David Ozoh (67’) and Corey Blackett-Taylor (87’).

What it changes

Burnley move up from 24th to 23rd (eight league matches played). Burnley have scored 18 goals, the eighth-fewest of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 14 games). Burnley have conceded 26 goals, the fourth-most (shared) of the 24 clubs.

Derby stay 22nd after this result (eight league matches played). Derby have scored 11 goals, the second-fewest (shared) of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 14 games). Derby have conceded 29 goals, the second-most of the 24 clubs.

Burnley have scored in six consecutive matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Bobby Clark (Derby) 6.5, Lucas Pires (Burnley) 6.3 and Joe Ward (Derby) 5.7 led the match.

Head-to-head

Burnley are unbeaten in the last three meetings with Derby, every meeting checked.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Burnley or Derby (no draw), a Bronze-tier call, did not land — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 77.6% of the time in the last 90 days (3983 of 5130).

Next up

Burnley next travel to Cardiff on 7 November 2026.

Derby next host Bolton on 6 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Burnley: Cardiff v Burnley, Saturday 7 November — the preview. Next for Derby: Derby v Bolton, Friday 6 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Burnley 1–1 Derby · Championship
  • Venue: Turf Moor · Burnley
  • Referee: Steve Martin, England
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 3): Burnley 1 · draws 2 · Derby 0 · 1 goals/game
  • Recent form: Burnley 0W 2D 3L · Derby 1W 0D 4L

Burnley 1–1 Derby (Championship): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 3 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1 / 0.88
Goals
against 2 / 1.88 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.75
over 8 matches
5 / 6
Corners
against 4 / 5.88 · 1 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 7 matches
4 / 3.38
Shots on target
against 4.57 / 5.88 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 7 matches
2.29 / 2.13
Cards
against 2.14 / 1.75 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 7 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 12 September 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 12 September 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameBurnley for / againstLineDerby for / against
Goals scored
1 for · 2 against n 8
2.75our book
0.88 for · 1.88 against n 8
Corners won
5 for · 4 against n 7
9.5standard
6 for · 5.88 against n 8
Shots
14.43 for · 13.57 against n 7
19.5standard
11.13 for · 16.25 against n 8
Shots on target
4 for · 4.57 against n 7
8.5standard
3.38 for · 5.88 against n 8
Fouls committed
10.86 for · 9.29 against n 7
21.5standard
13.38 for · 9.38 against n 8
Cards shown
2.29 for · 2.14 against n 7
3.5standard
2.13 for · 1.75 against n 8

Referee: Steve Martin, England.

Burnley

Burnley Goalkeeper

Burnley — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
M. Weiß790630 min152.1 /90162.3 /9000 /90
Burnley — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Burnley before kick-off, to 12 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Weiß n 890
2.36/3

Burnley Defensive

Burnley — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Max Alleyne782573 min91.4 /9050.8 /9020.3 /90182.8 /9010.2 /9000 /90
K. Walker690540 min50.8 /9030.5 /9071.2 /90183 /9050.8 /9010.2 /90
O. Sonne681487 min71.3 /9061.1 /9010.2 /90142.6 /9050.9 /9010.2 /90
Connor Roberts581405 min51.1 /9030.7 /9000 /90112.4 /9030.7 /9000 /90
A. Ahmedhodžić375225 min41.6 /9052 /9052 /9072.8 /9010.4 /9000 /90
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Burnley — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Burnley before kick-off, to 12 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
M. Weiß n 890
00/0
00/0
—
Max Alleyne n 781.9
0.21/0
0.21/0
—
A. Ramsey n 868.4
1.26/1
13/2
—
Zeki Amdouni n 848.3
2.15/2
1.23/1
B. Clark
K. Walker n 890
0.85/1
0.53/1
—
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Burnley — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Burnley before kick-off, to 12 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Max Alleyne n 781.9
1.46/2
A. Ramsey n 868.4
1.88/2
Zeki Amdouni n 848.3
0.92/2
K. Walker n 890
15/3
O. Sonne n 876.5
1.86/3
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Burnley Attacking

Burnley — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Zeki Amdouni752362 min10.2 /9010.2 /90112.7 /9041 /9041 /9061.5 /90
Z. Flemming284168 min21.1 /9000 /90126.4 /9042.1 /9010.5 /9010.5 /90
A. Broja251102 min00 /9000 /9010.9 /9010.9 /9000 /9021.8 /90
A. Ramsey765457 min10.2 /9000 /90112.2 /9030.6 /9010.2 /9051 /90
J. Laurent673437 min10.2 /9000 /9071.4 /9030.6 /9040.8 /9030.6 /90
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Burnley — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Burnley before kick-off, to 12 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
M. Weiß n 890
00/0
00/0
Max Alleyne n 781.9
00/0
00/0
A. Ramsey n 868.4
2.17/3
0.74/0
Zeki Amdouni n 848.3
2.65/2
0.92/1
K. Walker n 890
0.11/0
00/0
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Burnley — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Burnley before kick-off, to 12 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
M. Weiß n 890
00/0
00/0
Max Alleyne n 781.9
00/0
0.21/0
A. Ramsey n 868.4
0.32/0
00/0
Zeki Amdouni n 848.3
0.21/0
0.21/0
K. Walker n 890
00/0
00/0
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Derby

Derby Goalkeeper

Derby — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
J. Widell Zetterström891725 min303.7 /90151.9 /9000 /90
Derby — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 12 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
J. Widell Zetterström n 890.6
3.77/5

Derby Defensive

Derby — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
S. Langås891725 min121.5 /9050.6 /9040.5 /90313.8 /9060.7 /9030.4 /90
C. Taylor887692 min162.1 /9070.9 /9070.9 /90334.3 /9081 /9010.1 /90
D. Sanderson778545 min71.2 /9030.5 /9081.3 /90325.3 /9081.3 /9020.3 /90
J. Ward572359 min30.8 /9051.3 /9000 /90123 /9010.3 /9000 /90
M. Johnston540199 min31.4 /9000 /9010.5 /9031.4 /9031.4 /9010.5 /90
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Derby — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 12 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
S. Langås n 890.6
0.74/2
0.53/1
—
J. Widell Zetterström n 890.6
00/0
00/0
—
C. Taylor n 886.5
14/3
0.85/1
—
B. Clark n 881.8
1.44/4
0.84/2
Zeki Amdouni
D. Sanderson n 875.8
1.26/1
0.74/1
—
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Derby — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 12 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
S. Langås n 890.6
1.56/4
C. Taylor n 886.5
2.17/3
B. Clark n 881.8
1.24/2
D. Sanderson n 875.8
14/2
S. Szmodics n 878.1
1.24/2
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Derby Attacking

Derby — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
S. Szmodics776535 min30.5 /9010.2 /90111.9 /9071.2 /9030.5 /9020.3 /90
L. Salvesen634203 min10.4 /9000 /9073.1 /9041.8 /9020.9 /9020.9 /90
R. Brewster533167 min00 /9000 /9010.5 /9000 /9000 /9000 /90
C. Morris491363 min10.2 /9010.2 /9061.5 /9030.7 /9041 /9010.2 /90
H. Meister348143 min00 /9000 /9031.9 /9010.6 /9000 /9010.6 /90
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Derby — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 12 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
J. Widell Zetterström n 890.6
0.11/0
00/0
S. Langås n 890.6
0.11/0
00/0
C. Taylor n 886.5
00/0
00/0
B. Clark n 881.8
1.55/3
0.42/1
D. Sanderson n 875.8
0.11/0
00/0
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Derby — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 12 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
J. Widell Zetterström n 890.6
00/0
00/0
S. Langås n 890.6
00/0
00/0
C. Taylor n 886.5
00/0
00/0
B. Clark n 881.8
0.32/0
0.32/0
D. Sanderson n 875.8
00/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
BurnleyDerby
52%Possession48%
0.45Expected goals (xG)1.75
6Shots17
2Shots on target6
1Shots off target4
3Blocked shots7
4Shots inside the box10
4Corners6
3Offsides4
9Fouls12
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
3Saves1
438Passes393
79%Pass accuracy80%

Burnley Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
A. Ahmedhodžić90000001Y7.5
G. Coudert9000000106.2
J. Laurent90000001Y6.5
Igor90000000Y7.7
Max Alleyne9000000006.9
Connor Roberts9000001106.6
Lucas Pires8901002207.7
J. Bruun Larsen7300001007
Zeki Amdouni7310221006.9
R. Hatate6100100106.9
Marcus Edwards6100000006.5
L. Ramazani sub2900000006.7
U. Raghouber sub29000000Y6.3
J. Vardy sub1700000006.3
A. Hountondji sub1700000006.3
O. Sonne sub10000000–

Derby Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
J. Ward9000111408.2
S. Szmodics9000211006.2
D. Sanderson9000100007.5
C. Morris9000001006.9
S. Langås9000100206.6
B. Clark9000112407.5
J. Vickers9000000007.3
C. Taylor8200000006.7
D. Ozoh78001103Y6.5
A. Mowatt6600000507.2
R. Hedges6600211306.7
O. Fraulo sub2400003006.7
M. Fuseini sub2410111007.6
R. Brewster sub1201001006.9
C. Blackett-Taylor sub8000011Y6.7

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Burnley v Derby — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
BurnleyLDLDL
Last 5: 0W 2D 3L · 1 scored / 2.2 conceded per game
DerbyLWLLL
Last 5: 1W 0D 4L · 0.6 scored / 1.8 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 3
Burnley 1 · 2 draws · Derby 0 · 1 goals/game
  • 2025-08-26 Burnley 2–1 Derby
  • 2025-04-08 Derby 0–0 Burnley
  • 2024-12-10 Burnley 0–0 Derby
League standing · 2026/27
Burnley#22 pos10 pts14 pl-8 GD
Derby#23 pos7 pts14 pl-18 GD
Goals per game
Burnley scored1.29
Derby scored0.79
Burnley conceded1.86
Derby conceded2.07

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Burnley v Derby?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Burnley v Derby was Home or Away (best price 1.29 at William Hill).
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Derby?
In their last 3 meetings, Burnley won 1, Derby won 0 and there were 2 draws, averaging 1 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Burnley and Derby?
Recent form — Burnley 0W 2D 3L; Derby 1W 0D 4L.

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