Lincoln v Southampton result

Full-time · Lincoln 1–1 Southampton

Championship · Sat, 05 Sep 2026 12:30 BST · Sincil Bank

Updated 19 Sep 2026, 04:32 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Lincoln · Southampton

The model’s pre-match pick

Lincoln 1–1 Southampton — this Championship match was drawn. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick

Over 2.5 goals

Best price: 1.75 at Betano

What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 67.4% of 543 landed (95% range 63.4–71.2%); it had given them 75.9% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

Match report, in numbers

The result

Lincoln and Southampton drew 1–1 at Sincil Bank in the Championship on Saturday 5 September. Southampton have scored in eight consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

Southampton led 1–0 at half-time and were pegged back. The goals — Southampton: Welington (44’, assisted by James Ward-Prowse); Lincoln: Mikkel Ladefoged (87’, assisted by R. Hackett).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s two key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Mikkel Ladefoged’s goal on 87 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) tell a different story: Lincoln out-shot Southampton 19 to 16 and created the better chances, 2.27 xG to 0.77 (the provider’s expected goals for this match). Variance.

Discipline

Andrew Kitchen, England showed three yellow cards — against 3.4 yellows a game across the last 13 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Lincoln: Conor McGrandles (43’), Ivan Varfolomeev (56’) and Frederick Draper (75’).

What it changes

Lincoln have scored 14 goals, the fifth-fewest of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 14 games). Lincoln have conceded 24 goals, the seventh-most (shared) of the 24 clubs.

Southampton have scored 29 goals, the third-most of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 14 games). Southampton have conceded 14 goals, the second-fewest of the 24 clubs.

Lincoln are unbeaten in their last four matches in all competitions. Southampton are unbeaten in their last three matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, James Ward-Prowse (Southampton) 7.9, Welington (Southampton) 6.1 and Mikkel Ladefoged (Lincoln) 5.2 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, did not land — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

Lincoln next travel to QPR on 7 November 2026.

Southampton next travel to Preston on 7 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Lincoln: QPR v Lincoln, Saturday 7 November — the preview. Next for Southampton: Preston v Southampton, Saturday 7 November — the preview.

The Numbers

Result: Lincoln 1–1 Southampton · Championship
Venue: Sincil Bank · Lincoln
Referee: Andrew Kitchen, England
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 1): Lincoln 0 · draws 0 · Southampton 1 · 3 goals/game
Recent form: Lincoln 2W 1D 2L · Southampton 2W 1D 2L

Lincoln 1–1 Southampton (Championship): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 19 September 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.88 / 1.75

Goals

against 1.25 / 1.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.75

over 8 matches

4.38 / 4.71

Corners

against 5.63 / 5.29 · 4 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 7 matches

4 / 4.14

Shots on target

against 4.75 / 4.57 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 7 matches

2 / 2

Cards

against 1.63 / 2.29 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 7 matches

3.38 yellows

Referee · Andrew Kitchen, England

20.62 fouls a game

Home and away split · Pro

over 13 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 1 September 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 1 September 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Lincoln for / against	Line	Southampton for / against
Goals scored	1.88 for · 1.25 against n 8 Last 5	2.75our book	1.75 for · 1.25 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	4.38 for · 5.63 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	4.71 for · 5.29 against n 7 Last 5
Shots	12.88 for · 15.25 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	15.71 for · 16.14 against n 7 Last 5
Shots on target	4 for · 4.75 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	4.14 for · 4.57 against n 7 Last 5
Fouls committed	12.5 for · 10.38 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	8.14 for · 12 against n 7 Last 5
Cards shown	2 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	2 for · 2.29 against n 7 Last 5

Referee: Andrew Kitchen, England — 3.38 yellow cards a game, 0.08 red cards, 20.62 fouls over 13 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Lincoln

Lincoln Goalkeeper

Lincoln — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
G. Wickens	5	91455 min	204 /90	61.2 /90	00 /90
J. Gauci	1	9090 min	22 /90	11 /90	00 /90

Lincoln — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lincoln before kick-off, to 1 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
G. Wickens n 8	90.6	3.1 6/4

Lincoln Defensive

Lincoln — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
D. Elerewe	5	91455 min	71.4 /90	71.4 /90	61.2 /90	285.5 /90	61.2 /90	00 /90
A. Reach	5	89447 min	51 /90	51 /90	30.6 /90	132.6 /90	20.4 /90	10.2 /90
R. Towler	5	78388 min	30.7 /90	71.6 /90	71.6 /90	173.9 /90	00 /90	00 /90
T. Hamer	3	92275 min	31 /90	41.3 /90	10.3 /90	237.5 /90	20.7 /90	10.3 /90
C. Elder	3	90270 min	103.3 /90	20.7 /90	10.3 /90	144.7 /90	31 /90	00 /90
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Lincoln — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lincoln before kick-off, to 1 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Ivan Varfolomeev n 8	70.4	1.3 4/2	0.8 4/1	—
F. Draper n 8	61.3	4.2 6/6	1.3 3/3	—
R. Hackett n 8	60.8	0.4 2/0	0.6 3/0	—
R. Street n 8	56.3	1 5/0	1.6 5/3	—
C. McGrandles n 8	84.9	1.2 6/3	1.6 5/5	—
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Lincoln — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lincoln before kick-off, to 1 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Ivan Varfolomeev n 8	70.4	2.7 5/5
F. Draper n 8	61.3	0.7 3/1
R. Hackett n 8	60.8	1.5 5/3
R. Street n 8	56.3	1.6 4/2
C. McGrandles n 8	84.9	2.5 6/6
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Lincoln Attacking

Lincoln — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
F. Draper	6	60357 min	00 /90	10.3 /90	51.3 /90	20.5 /90	61.5 /90	10.3 /90
R. Street	6	51307 min	10.3 /90	00 /90	72.1 /90	10.3 /90	20.6 /90	00 /90
I. Olaofe	5	35177 min	10.5 /90	00 /90	21 /90	10.5 /90	00 /90	21 /90
B. House	4	78310 min	20.6 /90	00 /90	92.6 /90	61.7 /90	00 /90	10.3 /90
M. Melia	3	34102 min	00 /90	00 /90	21.8 /90	10.9 /90	00 /90	00 /90
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Lincoln — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lincoln before kick-off, to 1 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Ivan Varfolomeev n 8	70.4	1 4/2	0.6 3/1
F. Draper n 8	61.3	1.8 6/3	1.1 4/2
R. Hackett n 8	60.8	2 5/3	0.7 2/1
R. Street n 8	56.3	1.8 5/2	0.4 2/0
D. Elerewe n 8	82.3	0.5 4/0	0.1 1/0
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Lincoln — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lincoln before kick-off, to 1 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Ivan Varfolomeev n 8	70.4	0 0/0	0.2 1/0
F. Draper n 8	61.3	0 0/0	0.4 2/0
R. Hackett n 8	60.8	0.6 2/1	0 0/0
R. Street n 8	56.3	0.4 2/0	0 0/0
G. Wickens n 8	90.6	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
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Southampton

Southampton Goalkeeper

Southampton — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Daniel Peretz	6	91546 min	183 /90	91.5 /90	00 /90

Southampton — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Southampton before kick-off, to 1 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Daniel Peretz n 8	90.8	3.2 6/6

Southampton Defensive

Southampton — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
James Bree	6	91546 min	81.3 /90	50.8 /90	30.5 /90	122 /90	61 /90	20.3 /90
Ryan Manning	5	91456 min	30.6 /90	30.6 /90	10.2 /90	183.6 /90	40.8 /90	20.4 /90
J. Stephens	4	92366 min	10.2 /90	41 /90	82 /90	92.2 /90	00 /90	00 /90
Nathan Wood	4	90360 min	51.3 /90	30.8 /90	51.3 /90	215.3 /90	30.8 /90	10.3 /90
Taylor Harwood-Bellis	2	93186 min	31.5 /90	10.5 /90	31.5 /90	115.3 /90	00 /90	00 /90
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Southampton — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Southampton before kick-off, to 1 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
James Bree n 8	82.3	0.8 5/1	0.1 1/0	—
Daniel Peretz n 8	90.8	0 0/0	0.2 1/1	—
Leo Scienza n 8	78.9	0.6 3/1	2.3 7/5	—
F. Downes n 8	74.6	1.8 5/3	1.4 5/3	—
K. Matsuki n 8	60.3	0.9 5/0	1.9 7/1	—
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Southampton — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Southampton before kick-off, to 1 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
James Bree n 8	82.3	1.2 6/2
Leo Scienza n 8	78.9	0.9 4/2
F. Downes n 8	74.6	2.4 6/4
K. Matsuki n 8	60.3	1.3 5/1
Finn Azaz n 8	57.3	1 4/1
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Southampton Attacking

Southampton — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Cyle Larin	5	64321 min	51.4 /90	00 /90	164.5 /90	102.8 /90	20.6 /90	30.8 /90
D. Mubama	4	38151 min	00 /90	00 /90	63.6 /90	10.6 /90	10.6 /90	21.2 /90
B. Brereton	1	6262 min	00 /90	00 /90	22.9 /90	00 /90	00 /90	11.5 /90
Cameron Archer	1	2121 min	00 /90	00 /90	14.3 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90
Leo Scienza	6	76455 min	20.4 /90	20.4 /90	71.4 /90	40.8 /90	102 /90	81.6 /90
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Southampton — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Southampton before kick-off, to 1 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
James Bree n 8	82.3	0.3 2/0	0 0/0
Daniel Peretz n 8	90.8	0 0/0	0 0/0
Leo Scienza n 8	78.9	1.4 7/3	0.7 4/1
F. Downes n 8	74.6	0.3 1/1	0 0/0
K. Matsuki n 8	60.3	0.7 2/1	0 0/0
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Southampton — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Southampton before kick-off, to 1 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Daniel Peretz n 8	90.8	0 0/0	0 0/0
James Bree n 8	82.3	0 0/0	0 0/0
Leo Scienza n 8	78.9	0.3 2/0	0.3 2/0
F. Downes n 8	74.6	0 0/0	0.2 1/0
K. Matsuki n 8	60.3	0 0/0	0 0/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Lincoln		Southampton
39%	Possession	61%
2.27	Expected goals (xG)	0.77
19	Shots	16
5	Shots on target	4
8	Shots off target	9
6	Blocked shots	3
16	Shots inside the box	7
4	Corners	6
0	Offsides	1
14	Fouls	10
3	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	0
2	Saves	4
316	Passes	510
76%	Pass accuracy	89%

Lincoln Player Stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
Andrei Coubiș	90	0	0	2	1	2	3	0	7.3
F. Draper	90	0	0	2	1	2	2	Y	6.9
D. Elerewe	90	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	6.9
A. Reach	90	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	7.3
R. Towler	90	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	6.9
G. Wickens	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.3
B. House	76	0	0	2	0	1	2	0	6.5
C. McGrandles	76	0	0	0	0	1	3	Y	7.5
Ivan Varfolomeev	64	0	0	0	0	1	1	Y	6.6
S. Bradley	64	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	6.9
R. Street	64	0	0	1	1	2	1	0	7.7
R. Hackett sub	26	0	1	0	0	2	1	0	8.5
Y. Konak sub	26	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	6.9
M. Ladefoged sub	26	1	0	2	1	3	0	0	7.3
T. Bayliss sub	14	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.9
C. Ogbene sub	14	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	6.5

Southampton Player Stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Rating
James Bree	90	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.3
F. Downes	90	0	0	0	0	1	1	6.9
K. Schlotterbeck	90	0	0	1	0	0	1	7.3
J. Stephens	90	0	0	0	0	0	3	6.9
J. Ward-Prowse	90	0	1	2	0	6	2	7.6
Daniel Peretz	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	8.2
K. Matsuki	84	0	0	2	1	0	0	6.6
Welington	78	1	0	1	1	1	1	8.2
Finn Azaz	78	0	0	0	0	0	2	6.7
Leo Scienza	63	0	0	4	1	1	0	7
Cyle Larin	62	0	0	1	0	3	0	6.2
D. Mubama sub	28	0	0	1	0	0	0	6
Samuel Edozie sub	27	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.5
L. Dobbin sub	12	0	0	1	1	0	1	6.6
Ryan Manning sub	12	0	0	0	0	1	1	6.3
Nathan Wood sub	10	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.2

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Lincoln v Southampton — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

LincolnLLWWD

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.4 scored / 1.2 conceded per game

SouthamptonLWLWD

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 2.2 scored / 1.8 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 1

Lincoln 0 · 0 draws · Southampton 1 · 3 goals/game

2022-12-20 Southampton 2–1 Lincoln

League standing · 2026/27

Lincoln#19 pos15 pts14 pl-10 GD

Southampton#7 pos24 pts14 pl+15 GD

Goals per game

Lincoln scored1

Southampton scored2.07

Lincoln conceded1.71

Southampton conceded1

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Lincoln v Southampton?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Lincoln v Southampton was Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.75 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Southampton?: In their last 1 meetings, Lincoln won 0, Southampton won 1 and there were 0 draws, averaging 3 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Lincoln and Southampton?: Recent form — Lincoln 2W 1D 2L; Southampton 2W 1D 2L.

Today’s Boards

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Predictions today Tomorrow BTTS board Over 2.5 board Under 2.5 board Over 1.5 board Home win board Away win board Double chance board

This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 19 Sep 2026, 04:32 UK. How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.