This Matchweek

MiddlesbroughMillwall

Middlesbrough v Millwall result

Full-time · Middlesbrough 2–2 Millwall

Championship · · Riverside Stadium

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Middlesbrough · Millwall · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Middlesbrough 2–2 Millwall — this Championship match was drawn. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
Best price: 1.82 at Unibet
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 67.4% of 543 landed (95% range 63.4–71.2%); it had given them 75.9% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Middlesbrough and Millwall drew 2–2 at Riverside Stadium in the Championship on Tuesday 15 September.

The goals

Millwall led 2–0 at half-time and were pegged back. The goals — Millwall: Taïryk Arconte (11’, assisted by Camiel Neghli) and Lyndon Dykes (36’, assisted by Caleb Taylor); Middlesbrough: Amario Cozier-Duberry (50’) and William Lankshear (61’, assisted by Luke Ayling).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s four key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with William Lankshear’s goal on 61 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) had little between the sides: Middlesbrough 1.52, Millwall 1.69, from 22 shots to 11 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

Robert Madley, England showed two yellow cards — against 4.4 yellows a game across the last 5 matches refereed (all competitions). The bookings — Middlesbrough: Riley McGree (66’); Millwall: Derek Mazou-Sacko (59’).

What it changes

Middlesbrough have scored 30 goals, the second-most of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 14 games). Middlesbrough have conceded 19 goals, the 10th-fewest (shared) of the 24 clubs.

Millwall have scored 23 goals, the seventh-most of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 14 games). Millwall have conceded 24 goals, the seventh-most (shared) of the 24 clubs.

Millwall are winless in their last three matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Caleb Taylor (Millwall) 7.4, Amario Cozier-Duberry (Middlesbrough) 7.2 and Lyndon Dykes (Millwall) 6.6 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 67.4% of the time in the last 90 days (366 of 543).

Next up

Middlesbrough next travel to Watford on 7 November 2026.

Millwall next travel to West Brom on 7 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Middlesbrough: Watford v Middlesbrough, Saturday 7 November — the preview. Next for Millwall: West Brom v Millwall, Saturday 7 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Middlesbrough 2–2 Millwall · Championship
  • Venue: Riverside Stadium · Middlesbrough
  • Referee: Robert Madley, England
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Middlesbrough 3 · draws 0 · Millwall 3 · 2.17 goals/game
  • Recent form: Middlesbrough 3W 1D 1L · Millwall 1W 0D 4L

Middlesbrough 2–2 Millwall (Championship): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 29 September 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.88 / 1.5
Goals
against 1.5 / 1.5 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.75
over 8 matches
5.25 / 4.13
Corners
against 4.63 / 6.63 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
5.25 / 3.5
Shots on target
against 4.25 / 3.38 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.38 / 1.5
Cards
against 1.63 / 2.5 · 1 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 12 September 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 12 September 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameMiddlesbrough for / againstLineMillwall for / against
Goals scored
1.88 for · 1.5 against n 8
2.75our book
1.5 for · 1.5 against n 8
Corners won
5.25 for · 4.63 against n 8
9.5standard
4.13 for · 6.63 against n 8
Shots
17.88 for · 11 against n 8
19.5standard
13.63 for · 13.88 against n 8
Shots on target
5.25 for · 4.25 against n 8
8.5standard
3.5 for · 3.38 against n 8
Fouls committed
11.63 for · 9.25 against n 8
21.5standard
13.38 for · 10.25 against n 8
Cards shown
1.38 for · 1.63 against n 8
3.5standard
1.5 for · 2.5 against n 8

Referee: Robert Madley, England.

Middlesbrough

Middlesbrough Goalkeeper

Middlesbrough — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
R. Vítek690540 min132.2 /9081.3 /9000 /90
S. Brynn390270 min82.7 /9041.3 /9000 /90
Middlesbrough — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Middlesbrough before kick-off, to 12 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
R. Vítek n 690
2.25/1
S. Brynn n 890
2.35/2

Middlesbrough Defensive

Middlesbrough — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
C. Brittain984753 min161.9 /9050.6 /9020.2 /90435.1 /90121.4 /9010.1 /90
A. Malanda888707 min101.3 /9091.1 /9050.6 /90364.6 /9060.8 /9020.3 /90
L. Ayling881648 min71 /9071 /9030.4 /90294 /9060.8 /9000 /90
Neto Borges881648 min50.7 /9050.7 /9050.7 /90273.8 /9060.8 /9010.1 /90
Maximilian Arfsten752366 min153.7 /9030.7 /9000 /90389.3 /9051.2 /9000 /90
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Middlesbrough — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Middlesbrough before kick-off, to 12 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
C. Brittain n 882.9
1.56/3
0.11/0
Zak Norton Sturge
W. Lankshear n 867.3
1.85/4
0.32/0
—
A. Malanda n 888.4
0.84/2
0.53/1
—
Neto Borges n 881
0.85/1
0.84/2
C. Taylor
L. Ayling n 881
0.83/2
0.75/0
J. Cooper
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Middlesbrough — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Middlesbrough before kick-off, to 12 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
C. Brittain n 882.9
2.27/3
W. Lankshear n 867.3
0.32/0
A. Malanda n 888.4
1.35/3
L. Ayling n 881
16/1
Neto Borges n 881
0.74/1
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Middlesbrough Attacking

Middlesbrough — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
W. Lankshear969618 min71 /9000 /90202.9 /90121.7 /9081.2 /9020.3 /90
K. Joseph849395 min10.2 /9000 /9092.1 /9040.9 /9061.4 /9051.1 /90
D. Strelec16767 min00 /9000 /9011.3 /9000 /9022.7 /9011.3 /90
Sebastian Berhalter878623 min20.3 /9020.3 /90101.4 /9040.6 /90182.6 /9000 /90
A. Morris781567 min10.2 /9000 /9050.8 /9030.5 /9061 /9030.5 /90
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Middlesbrough — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Middlesbrough before kick-off, to 12 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
C. Brittain n 882.9
15/2
0.32/0
W. Lankshear n 867.3
2.56/5
1.75/3
A. Malanda n 888.4
0.64/1
0.43/0
L. Ayling n 881
0.74/1
0.11/0
Neto Borges n 881
0.11/0
00/0
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Middlesbrough — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Middlesbrough before kick-off, to 12 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
C. Brittain n 882.9
00/0
0.11/0
W. Lankshear n 867.3
14/2
00/0
A. Malanda n 888.4
00/0
00/0
L. Ayling n 881
00/0
0.11/0
Neto Borges n 881
00/0
00/0
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Millwall

Millwall Goalkeeper

Millwall — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
M. Crocombe590450 min91.8 /90112.2 /9000 /90
L. Jensen290180 min21 /9000 /9000 /90
F. Marschall19090 min55 /9000 /9000 /90
Millwall — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Millwall before kick-off, to 12 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Crocombe n 890
2.55/3
L. Jensen n 890
2.65/3

Millwall Defensive

Millwall — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
J. Cooper889712 min30.4 /9091.1 /9070.9 /90415.2 /9040.5 /9000 /90
C. Taylor790630 min60.9 /90121.7 /9060.9 /90365.1 /9030.4 /9000 /90
Zak Norton Sturge776533 min122 /9061 /9030.5 /90254.2 /90101.7 /9010.2 /90
J. Osei-Tutu559293 min72.2 /9051.5 /9000 /90206.1 /9030.9 /9000 /90
E. Baggott466263 min41.4 /9041.4 /9010.3 /90165.5 /9010.3 /9000 /90
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Millwall — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Millwall before kick-off, to 12 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
J. Cooper n 889
0.53/1
1.16/3
L. Ayling
C. Neghli n 876.6
16/1
0.31/1
—
Jenson Metcalfe n 872.4
3.38/5
24/3
—
C. Taylor n 890
0.63/2
0.53/1
Neto Borges
Zak Norton Sturge n 874.5
1.76/3
1.14/3
C. Brittain
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Millwall — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Millwall before kick-off, to 12 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
J. Cooper n 889
0.43/0
C. Neghli n 876.6
1.23/2
Jenson Metcalfe n 872.4
3.18/6
C. Taylor n 890
0.85/1
Zak Norton Sturge n 874.5
1.85/4
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Millwall Attacking

Millwall — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
T. Arconte665389 min20.5 /9000 /9081.9 /9030.7 /9030.7 /9030.7 /90
L. Dykes589447 min30.6 /9000 /90102 /9040.8 /9030.6 /9010.2 /90
Z. Lovelace539197 min00 /9020.9 /9010.5 /9000 /9020.9 /9010.5 /90
J. Coburn476304 min20.6 /9000 /9072.1 /9051.5 /9051.5 /9010.3 /90
K. Lisbie367200 min00 /9000 /9031.4 /9010.5 /9010.5 /9020.9 /90
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Millwall — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Millwall before kick-off, to 12 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
J. Cooper n 889
0.53/1
0.11/0
C. Neghli n 876.6
1.26/2
0.43/0
Jenson Metcalfe n 872.4
0.84/1
00/0
C. Taylor n 890
14/2
0.43/0
Zak Norton Sturge n 874.5
0.32/0
00/0
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Millwall — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Millwall before kick-off, to 12 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
J. Cooper n 889
0.11/0
0.11/0
C. Neghli n 876.6
0.11/0
0.11/0
Jenson Metcalfe n 872.4
00/0
0.32/0
C. Taylor n 890
0.11/0
00/0
Zak Norton Sturge n 874.5
00/0
0.21/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
MiddlesbroughMillwall
80%Possession20%
1.52Expected goals (xG)1.69
22Shots11
7Shots on target4
5Shots off target6
10Blocked shots1
11Shots inside the box11
14Corners1
4Offsides3
3Fouls12
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
2Saves5
647Passes162
93%Pass accuracy63%

Middlesbrough Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
L. Ayling9001002007
R. Vítek9000000006.2
A. Morris9000100107.9
W. Lankshear9010320007.2
C. Brittain9000000106.5
A. Phillips9000001107
A. Cozier-Duberry8510433008.3
R. McGree78001000Y6.6
Neto Borges4500001006.2
T. Conway4500001006.7
Sebastian Berhalter4500002006.7
J. Sarmiento sub4500212106.9
K. Joseph sub4500110006.3
Maximilian Arfsten sub4500003107.3
M. Peart-Harris sub1200001006.7
D. Strelec sub900000006.3

Millwall Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
C. Taylor9001102207.3
J. Osei-Tutu9000000006.2
C. Neghli9001212106.6
D. Mazou-Sacko90001034Y6.5
J. Cooper9000000406.3
M. Crocombe9000000006.9
M. Sykes8400103206.6
Zak Norton Sturge8400101307.7
Jenson Metcalfe7500001206.7
T. Arconte7510110007.2
L. Dykes5610210107.6
E. Baggott sub3400110006.7
D. Kelly sub1500000006.3
Z. Lovelace sub1500000006.5
L. Cundle sub1000000006.6
Y. Issoufou sub1000000006.3

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Middlesbrough v Millwall — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
MiddlesbroughWDWLW
Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 1.8 scored / 1.6 conceded per game
MillwallLLWLL
Last 5: 1W 0D 4L · 1.2 scored / 2.4 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Middlesbrough 3 · 0 draws · Millwall 3 · 2.17 goals/game
  • 2026-04-03 Middlesbrough 1–2 Millwall
  • 2025-08-16 Millwall 0–3 Middlesbrough
  • 2025-04-12 Millwall 1–0 Middlesbrough
  • 2024-12-14 Middlesbrough 1–0 Millwall
  • 2024-01-13 Millwall 1–3 Middlesbrough
  • 2023-08-05 Middlesbrough 0–1 Millwall
League standing · 2026/27
Middlesbrough#1 pos28 pts14 pl+11 GD
Millwall#13 pos18 pts14 pl-1 GD
Goals per game
Middlesbrough scored2.14
Millwall scored1.64
Middlesbrough conceded1.36
Millwall conceded1.71

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Middlesbrough v Millwall?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Middlesbrough v Millwall was Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.82 at Unibet).
What is the head-to-head record between Middlesbrough and Millwall?
In their last 6 meetings, Middlesbrough won 3, Millwall won 3 and there were 0 draws, averaging 2.17 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Middlesbrough and Millwall?
Recent form — Middlesbrough 3W 1D 1L; Millwall 1W 0D 4L.

Today’s Boards

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