SouthamptonMiddlesbrough

Southampton v Middlesbrough result

Full-time · Southampton 2–1 Middlesbrough

Championship ·

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Southampton · Middlesbrough · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Southampton 2–1 Middlesbrough — Southampton won this Championship match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 68.5% of 505 landed (95% range 64.3–72.4%); it had given them 75.9% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Southampton beat Middlesbrough 2–1 in the Championship on Tuesday 12 May. Middlesbrough are unbeaten in the last five meetings with Southampton, every meeting checked.

The goals

It was 1–1 at half-time. The goals — Middlesbrough: Riley McGree (5’, assisted by Callum Brittain); Southampton: Ross Stewart (45’) and Shea Charles (116’, assisted by Taylor Harwood-Bellis).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s three key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Shea Charles’s goal on 116 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Southampton 1.99, Middlesbrough 0.98, from 20 shots to 19 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

A. Madley showed eight yellow cards — against 3.6 yellows a game across the last 23 matches refereed (all competitions). The bookings — Southampton: Nathan Wood (37’), Finn Azaz (56’), Daniel Peretz (120+3’) and Cyle Larin (120+6’); Middlesbrough: Riley McGree (13’), Luke Ayling (38’), Adilson Malanda (78’) and Callum Brittain (92’).

What it changes

Southampton have scored 84 goals, the second-most of the 24 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 48 games, ranked per game). Southampton have conceded 57 goals, the fifth-fewest of the 24 clubs.

Middlesbrough have scored 73 goals, the fourth-most of the 24 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 48 games, ranked per game). Middlesbrough have conceded 49 goals, the second-fewest of the 24 clubs.

Southampton are unbeaten in their last four matches in all competitions. Middlesbrough are winless in their last three matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Caspar Jander (Southampton) 9.5, Shea Charles (Southampton) 8.4 and Ryan Manning (Southampton) 7.3 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, did not land — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

Southampton next host Derby on 21 November 2026.

Middlesbrough next host Bristol City on 21 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Southampton: Southampton v Derby, Saturday 21 November — the preview. Next for Middlesbrough: Middlesbrough v Bristol City, Saturday 21 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Southampton 2–1 Middlesbrough · Championship
  • Referee: A. Madley
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 5): Southampton 0 · draws 3 · Middlesbrough 2 · 2.2 goals/game
  • Recent form: Southampton 1W 3D 1L · Middlesbrough 2W 3D 0L

Southampton 2–1 Middlesbrough (Championship): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.88 / 1.63
Goals
against 1.13 / 1.25 · 4 of the last 5 over 2.75
over 8 matches
5.75 / 9.13
Corners
against 6.63 / 3.38 · 5 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
4.25 / 6.5
Shots on target
against 5 / 3.25 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.25 / 1.5
Cards
against 1.75 / 2 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 9 May 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 9 May 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameSouthampton for / againstLineMiddlesbrough for / against
Goals scored
1.88 for · 1.13 against n 8
2.75our book
1.63 for · 1.25 against n 8
Corners won
5.75 for · 6.63 against n 8
9.5standard
9.13 for · 3.38 against n 8
Shots
12.88 for · 14.63 against n 8
19.5standard
20.75 for · 11.13 against n 8
Shots on target
4.25 for · 5 against n 8
8.5standard
6.5 for · 3.25 against n 8
Fouls committed
10.25 for · 9.75 against n 8
21.5standard
8.38 for · 13 against n 8
Cards shown
1.25 for · 1.75 against n 8
3.5standard
1.5 for · 2 against n 8

Referee: A. Madley.

Southampton

Southampton Goalkeeper

Southampton — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Daniel Peretz25902250 min813.2 /90230.9 /9000 /90
Gavin Bazunu19901710 min432.3 /90281.5 /9000 /90
Southampton — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Southampton before kick-off, to 9 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Daniel Peretz n 890
3.88/7
Gavin Bazunu n 890
37/7

Southampton Defensive

Southampton — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Taylor Harwood-Bellis47894203 min420.9 /90420.9 /90400.9 /902625.6 /90350.7 /90110.2 /90
Ryan Manning46813707 min701.7 /90481.2 /90130.3 /901824.4 /90300.7 /9060.1 /90
Nathan Wood37853127 min320.9 /90280.8 /90371.1 /901273.7 /90240.7 /9050.1 /90
J. Stephens31872706 min301 /90331.1 /90291 /90842.8 /90110.4 /9050.2 /90
James Bree22821808 min331.6 /9090.4 /9070.3 /90633.1 /90190.9 /9010 /90
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Southampton — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Southampton before kick-off, to 9 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Taylor Harwood-Bellis n 890
0.62/1
14/2
L. Ayling
Ryan Manning n 884.4
0.54/0
0.96/1
L. Ayling
Finn Azaz n 876.5
15/2
1.35/2
T. Conway
Leo Scienza n 871.5
0.32/0
2.47/3
—
Caspar Jander n 881.1
2.47/4
0.43/0
M. Targett
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Southampton — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Southampton before kick-off, to 9 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Taylor Harwood-Bellis n 890
15/2
Ryan Manning n 884.4
2.18/5
Finn Azaz n 876.5
1.54/3
Leo Scienza n 871.5
0.94/2
Caspar Jander n 881.1
4.28/7
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Southampton Attacking

Southampton — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
A. Armstrong29732115 min110.5 /9040.2 /90672.9 /90381.6 /90251.1 /90130.6 /90
Ross Stewart27451219 min100.7 /9030.2 /90282.1 /90201.5 /90161.2 /9010.1 /90
Cameron Archer25491229 min50.4 /9040.3 /90261.9 /90141 /90131 /90141 /90
Jay Robinson2143911 min20.2 /9010.1 /90181.8 /90101 /90101 /90272.7 /90
Cyle Larin19541022 min80.7 /9010.1 /90211.8 /90141.2 /9090.8 /9060.5 /90
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Southampton — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Southampton before kick-off, to 9 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Taylor Harwood-Bellis n 890
0.53/1
0.32/0
Ryan Manning n 884.4
0.53/1
0.32/0
Finn Azaz n 876.5
1.34/2
0.73/2
Leo Scienza n 871.5
1.36/2
0.63/1
Caspar Jander n 881.1
00/0
00/0
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Southampton — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Southampton before kick-off, to 9 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Taylor Harwood-Bellis n 890
0.32/0
00/0
Ryan Manning n 884.4
0.32/0
0.43/0
Finn Azaz n 876.5
0.32/0
0.32/0
Leo Scienza n 871.5
0.21/0
0.32/0
Caspar Jander n 881.1
00/0
0.11/0
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Middlesbrough

Middlesbrough Goalkeeper

Middlesbrough — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
S. Brynn48904326 min1092.3 /90501 /9010 /90
Middlesbrough — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Middlesbrough before kick-off, to 9 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
S. Brynn n 890.8
2.14/3

Middlesbrough Defensive

Middlesbrough — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
L. Ayling44853738 min872.1 /90401 /90330.8 /902475.9 /90230.6 /9080.2 /90
M. Targett44813549 min551.4 /90491.2 /9080.2 /901162.9 /90240.6 /9050.1 /90
C. Brittain43883800 min671.6 /90471.1 /9080.2 /901914.5 /90350.8 /9060.1 /90
D. Fry26741918 min221 /90200.9 /90351.6 /901346.3 /90120.6 /9010 /90
A. Malanda23882014 min180.8 /90231 /90170.8 /90974.3 /90221 /9040.2 /90
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Middlesbrough — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Middlesbrough before kick-off, to 9 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
T. Conway n 881.1
14/3
2.17/3
Finn Azaz
S. Brynn n 890.8
0.11/0
0.22/0
—
L. Ayling n 884.8
0.54/0
2.37/4
Ryan Manning
M. Targett n 875
0.32/0
0.63/1
Caspar Jander
C. Brittain n 889.9
0.53/1
0.63/2
—
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Middlesbrough — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Middlesbrough before kick-off, to 9 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
T. Conway n 881.1
15/2
L. Ayling n 884.8
2.38/5
M. Targett n 875
1.35/3
C. Brittain n 889.9
1.67/5
A. Morris n 890.8
3.28/6
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Middlesbrough Attacking

Middlesbrough — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
T. Conway49783817 min130.3 /9050.1 /90511.2 /90330.8 /90651.5 /90421 /90
D. Strelec32601918 min80.4 /9010 /90391.8 /90231.1 /90200.9 /90130.6 /90
D. Burgzorg21551156 min20.2 /9020.2 /90181.4 /9090.7 /90251.9 /90100.8 /90
K. Sène2131652 min20.3 /9000 /9081.1 /9020.3 /9030.4 /9040.6 /90
S. Hansen1337484 min00 /9000 /90101.9 /9040.7 /9061.1 /9071.3 /90
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Middlesbrough — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Middlesbrough before kick-off, to 9 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
T. Conway n 881.1
1.45/4
15/2
S. Brynn n 890.8
00/0
00/0
L. Ayling n 884.8
1.57/4
0.32/0
M. Targett n 875
0.63/1
0.32/0
C. Brittain n 889.9
0.53/1
0.42/1
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Middlesbrough — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Middlesbrough before kick-off, to 9 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
T. Conway n 881.1
0.74/1
0.11/0
S. Brynn n 890.8
00/0
00/0
L. Ayling n 884.8
00/0
00/0
M. Targett n 875
00/0
0.21/0
C. Brittain n 889.9
00/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
SouthamptonMiddlesbrough
60%Possession40%
1.99Expected goals (xG)0.98
20Shots19
7Shots on target3
6Shots off target7
7Blocked shots9
13Shots inside the box11
11Corners5
0Offsides1
15Fouls19
4Yellow cards4
0Red cards0
2Saves4
589Passes405
83%Pass accuracy78%

Southampton Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Daniel Peretz120000000Y6.9
James Bree12000002006.6
Taylor Harwood-Bellis12001101007
Nathan Wood120001000Y7
Ryan Manning12000224308.6
Shea Charles12010110308.3
Finn Azaz120001123Y7.2
Caspar Jander11900002907.5
Leo Scienza8500001106.9
Ross Stewart8410410006.9
K. Matsuki6600000206.3
F. Downes sub5400000206.9
Cyle Larin sub36001110Y6.2
Samuel Edozie sub3400211006.6
Welington sub10000000–
Cameron Bragg sub10000000–

Middlesbrough Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
S. Brynn12000000006.9
D. Fry12000110106.9
A. Malanda120000023Y7.3
C. Brittain120013153Y6.7
A. Morris12000001507.2
M. Targett12000003107.2
M. Whittaker12000100106.2
L. Ayling119001003Y6.6
R. McGree105101111Y7.2
D. Strelec8300001106.3
T. Conway7300000007.2
A. Browne sub4700100106.9
Leo Castledine sub3700100006.5
J. Sarmiento sub1500000006.5
S. Hansen sub10010200–

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Southampton v Middlesbrough — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
SouthamptonDLDWD
Last 5: 1W 3D 1L · 1.6 scored / 1.4 conceded per game
MiddlesbroughDWWDD
Last 5: 2W 3D 0L · 2 scored / 1 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 5
Southampton 0 · 3 draws · Middlesbrough 2 · 2.2 goals/game
  • 2026-05-09 Middlesbrough 0–0 Southampton
  • 2026-01-04 Middlesbrough 4–0 Southampton
  • 2025-09-27 Southampton 1–1 Middlesbrough
  • 2024-03-29 Southampton 1–1 Middlesbrough
  • 2023-09-23 Middlesbrough 2–1 Southampton
League standing · 2025/26
Southampton#4 pos80 pts46 pl+26 GD
Middlesbrough#5 pos80 pts46 pl+25 GD
Goals per game
Southampton scored1.78
Middlesbrough scored1.57
Southampton conceded1.22
Middlesbrough conceded1.02

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Southampton v Middlesbrough?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Southampton v Middlesbrough was Over 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Southampton and Middlesbrough?
In their last 5 meetings, Southampton won 0, Middlesbrough won 2 and there were 3 draws, averaging 2.2 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Southampton and Middlesbrough?
Recent form — Southampton 1W 3D 1L; Middlesbrough 2W 3D 0L.

Today’s Boards

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