SouthamptonStoke City

Southampton v Stoke City result

Full-time · Southampton 3–1 Stoke City

Championship · · St. Mary's Stadium

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Southampton · Stoke City · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Southampton 3–1 Stoke City — Southampton won this Championship match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home win.

Free pick
Home win
Best price: 1.62 at William Hill
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home win in the last 90 days, 79.1% of 277 landed (95% range 73.9–83.4%); it had given them 75.4% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Southampton beat Stoke City 3–1 at St. Mary's Stadium in the Championship on Saturday 22 August.

The goals

It was 1–1 at half-time. The goals — Southampton: Cyle Larin (8’, assisted by Flynn Downes), Divin Mubama (89’, assisted by Finn Azaz) and Ryan Manning (90’ pen); Stoke City: Ethan Galbraith (26’, assisted by Samuel Gallagher). Svante Ingelsson (90+3’) was sent off.

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s five key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Divin Mubama’s goal on 89 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Southampton 2.32, Stoke City 0.93, from 18 shots to 15 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

The bookings — Southampton: James Bree (19’), Flynn Downes (50’) and Ryan Manning (52’); Stoke City: Samuel Gallagher (38’), Ethan Galbraith (62’), Maksym Talovierov (82’), Svante Ingelsson (86’) and Svante Ingelsson (90+3’).

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Ryan Manning (Southampton) 6.6, Finn Azaz (Southampton) 5.8 and Cyle Larin (Southampton) 5.8 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Southampton to win, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 79.1% of the time in the last 90 days (219 of 277).

Next up

Southampton next host Derby on 21 November 2026.

Stoke City next host Birmingham on 21 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Southampton: Southampton v Derby, Saturday 21 November — the preview. Next for Stoke City: Stoke City v Birmingham, Saturday 21 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Southampton 3–1 Stoke City · Championship
  • Venue: St. Mary's Stadium · Southampton
  • Referee: Steve Martin, England
  • Model coverage: 19 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Southampton 3 · draws 1 · Stoke City 2 · 2 goals/game
  • Recent form: Southampton 3W 1D 1L · Stoke City 1W 0D 4L

Southampton 3–1 Stoke City (Championship): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 19 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 5 September 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.5 / 0.75
Goals
against 1.25 / 1.88 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.75
over 8 matches
4.86 / 6.75
Corners
against 6.86 / 2.75 · 3 of the last 4 over 9.5
over 7 matches
3.43 / 2.13
Shots on target
against 5.43 / 4.13 · 2 of the last 4 over 8.5
over 7 matches
1.43 / 1.75
Cards
against 2 / 1.88 · 2 of the last 4 over 3.5
over 7 matches
19
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 16 August 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 16 August 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameSouthampton for / againstLineStoke City for / against
Goals scored
1.5 for · 1.25 against n 8
2.75our book
0.75 for · 1.88 against n 8
Corners won
4.86 for · 6.86 against n 7
9.5standard
6.75 for · 2.75 against n 8
Shots
13.71 for · 16.86 against n 7
19.5standard
10.13 for · 11.38 against n 8
Shots on target
3.43 for · 5.43 against n 7
8.5standard
2.13 for · 4.13 against n 8
Fouls committed
10.43 for · 11.71 against n 7
21.5standard
10.88 for · 10.63 against n 8
Cards shown
1.43 for · 2 against n 7
3.5standard
1.75 for · 1.88 against n 8

Referee: Steve Martin, England.

Southampton

Southampton Goalkeeper

Southampton — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Daniel Peretz293186 min62.9 /9021 /9000 /90
Southampton — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Southampton before kick-off, to 16 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Daniel Peretz n 890.8
3.77/6

Southampton Defensive

Southampton — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
J. Stephens293186 min10.5 /9021 /9010.5 /9052.4 /9000 /9000 /90
James Bree293186 min31.5 /9010.5 /9010.5 /9041.9 /9031.5 /9010.5 /90
Ryan Manning293186 min00 /9021 /9010.5 /9083.9 /9010.5 /9000 /90
Taylor Harwood-Bellis293186 min31.5 /9010.5 /9031.5 /90115.3 /9000 /9000 /90
F. Downes293186 min73.4 /9000 /9010.5 /90136.3 /9021 /9010.5 /90
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Southampton — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Southampton before kick-off, to 16 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
F. Downes n 873.3
28/3
0.94/2
—
James Bree n 879.5
0.85/1
0.42/1
E. Bocat
Taylor Harwood-Bellis n 890.8
0.51/1
15/3
—
Ryan Manning n 888.4
0.43/0
17/1
B. Wilmot
J. Stephens n 890.8
00/0
00/0
B. Wilmot
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Southampton — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Southampton before kick-off, to 16 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
F. Downes n 873.3
2.36/4
James Bree n 879.5
1.36/2
Taylor Harwood-Bellis n 890.8
1.26/3
Ryan Manning n 888.4
1.16/3
J. Stephens n 890.8
0.63/1
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Southampton Attacking

Southampton — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Cyle Larin252104 min21.7 /9000 /9065.2 /9043.5 /9021.7 /9010.9 /90
B. Brereton16262 min00 /9000 /9022.9 /9000 /9000 /9011.5 /90
Cameron Archer12121 min00 /9000 /9014.3 /9000 /9000 /9000 /90
F. Downes293186 min00 /9000 /9021 /9000 /9010.5 /9010.5 /90
K. Matsuki288175 min00 /9000 /9031.5 /9000 /9031.5 /9021 /90
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Southampton — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Southampton before kick-off, to 16 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Taylor Harwood-Bellis n 890.8
0.74/2
0.22/0
Ryan Manning n 888.4
0.64/1
0.32/0
F. Downes n 873.3
0.52/1
0.21/0
J. Stephens n 890.8
0.42/1
0.11/0
James Bree n 879.5
0.31/1
0.11/0
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Southampton — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Southampton before kick-off, to 16 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Ryan Manning n 888.4
0.32/0
0.54/0
F. Downes n 873.3
0.21/0
00/0
Taylor Harwood-Bellis n 890.8
0.11/0
00/0
J. Stephens n 890.8
00/0
00/0
Daniel Peretz n 890.8
00/0
00/0
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Stoke City

Stoke City Goalkeeper

Stoke City — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
V. Johansson294187 min62.9 /9021 /9000 /90
Stoke City — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Stoke City before kick-off, to 16 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
V. Johansson n 890.9
3.26/6

Stoke City Defensive

Stoke City — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
B. Wilmot294187 min21 /9021 /9010.5 /90104.8 /9010.5 /9000 /90
E. Bocat294187 min21 /9041.9 /9000 /9041.9 /9000 /9000 /90
Luke Graham294187 min21 /9031.4 /9000 /90125.8 /9021 /9010.5 /90
Bosun Lawal265130 min10.7 /9021.4 /9000 /9064.2 /9010.7 /9010.7 /90
M. Talovierov14545 min00 /9000 /9000 /9012 /9012 /9000 /90
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Stoke City — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Stoke City before kick-off, to 16 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
B. Wilmot n 889
0.54/0
0.83/1
J. Stephens
E. Bocat n 885.3
0.32/0
0.53/1
James Bree
S. Thomas n 890.9
0.22/0
1.15/3
—
V. Johansson n 890.9
00/0
0.22/0
—
M. Manhoef n 870.9
1.76/4
15/1
—
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Stoke City — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Stoke City before kick-off, to 16 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
B. Wilmot n 889
1.44/3
E. Bocat n 885.3
1.14/3
S. Thomas n 890.9
0.64/1
M. Manhoef n 870.9
13/3
S. Gallagher n 851.5
0.94/0
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Stoke City Attacking

Stoke City — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
S. Gallagher268136 min00 /9000 /9032 /9010.7 /9000 /9000 /90
R. Boženík22651 min11.8 /9000 /9035.3 /9023.5 /9000 /9000 /90
S. Thomas294187 min00 /9000 /9021 /9010.5 /9031.4 /9062.9 /90
S. Ingelsson284167 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9021.1 /90
M. Manhoef278156 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9010.6 /9000 /90
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Stoke City — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Stoke City before kick-off, to 16 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
E. Bocat n 885.3
0.84/2
0.32/0
B. Wilmot n 889
0.52/1
0.31/1
S. Thomas n 890.9
0.42/1
0.11/0
V. Johansson n 890.9
00/0
00/0
M. Manhoef n 870.9
15/1
0.32/0
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Stoke City — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Stoke City before kick-off, to 16 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
B. Wilmot n 889
0.31/1
00/0
S. Thomas n 890.9
00/0
0.11/0
E. Bocat n 885.3
0.11/0
00/0
V. Johansson n 890.9
00/0
00/0
M. Manhoef n 870.9
00/0
0.21/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
SouthamptonStoke City
58%Possession42%
2.32Expected goals (xG)0.93
18Shots15
5Shots on target2
6Shots off target6
7Blocked shots7
11Shots inside the box12
4Corners2
2Offsides2
10Fouls21
3Yellow cards5
0Red cards1
1Saves2
474Passes329
86%Pass accuracy81%

Southampton Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Daniel Peretz9000000005.9
James Bree90000001Y6.6
Nathan Wood9000000107.2
J. Stephens9000100007.2
Ryan Manning90102103Y7.7
F. Downes90010023Y6.9
K. Matsuki8900101106.7
Tom Fellows8900001107
Finn Azaz8901204207.3
Leo Scienza7800111006.9
Cyle Larin7810320107.6
L. Dobbin sub1200000006.3
D. Mubama sub1210110007.3
Cameron Bragg sub10000000–
R. Akachukwu sub10000000–
Samuel Edozie sub10000010–

Stoke City Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
V. Johansson9000000006.3
Ben Johnson9000000105.9
B. Wilmot9000000106.5
B. Gibson9000210106.5
E. Galbraith90101102Y7.3
Bae Jun-Ho9000103107.5
S. Thomas9000005006.3
E. Bocat8100001206.6
El Hadji Djibril Soumaré8100101106.6
S. Gallagher70011010Y6.9
George Hirst6200000006.5
R. Boženík sub2800100106.3
S. Ingelsson sub23001000RY4.9
M. Talovierov sub9000001Y5.9
T. Rigo sub900000006.2

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Southampton v Stoke City — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
SouthamptonWDWWL
Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 1.6 scored / 0.8 conceded per game
Stoke CityLLLWL
Last 5: 1W 0D 4L · 1 scored / 2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Southampton 3 · 1 draw · Stoke City 2 · 2 goals/game
  • 2026-01-31 Stoke City 0–2 Southampton
  • 2025-08-23 Southampton 1–2 Stoke City
  • 2024-10-29 Southampton 3–2 Stoke City
  • 2024-04-27 Southampton 0–1 Stoke City
  • 2023-10-03 Stoke City 0–1 Southampton
  • 2018-03-03 Southampton 0–0 Stoke City
League standing · 2026/27
Southampton#7 pos24 pts15 pl+14 GD
Stoke City#3 pos29 pts15 pl+6 GD
Goals per game
Southampton scored1.93
Stoke City scored1.6
Southampton conceded1
Stoke City conceded1.2

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Southampton v Stoke City?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Southampton v Stoke City was Home win (best price 1.62 at William Hill).
What is the head-to-head record between Southampton and Stoke City?
In their last 6 meetings, Southampton won 3, Stoke City won 2 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Southampton and Stoke City?
Recent form — Southampton 3W 1D 1L; Stoke City 1W 0D 4L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error

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