Stoke City v Derby result
Team pages: Stoke City · Derby · Head-to-head
The model’s pre-match pick
Stoke City 3–1 Derby — Stoke City won this Championship match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Under 2.5 goals.
The result
Stoke City beat Derby 3–1 in the Championship on Saturday 9 August.
The goals
It was 0–0 at half-time. The goals — Derby: Carlton Morris (60’, assisted by Corey Blackett-Taylor); Stoke City: L. Baker (70’, assisted by S. Thomas), Divin Mubama (90’, assisted by T. Seko) and S. Thomas (90’, assisted by Jamie Donley).
How it turned
Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s four key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Divin Mubama’s goal on 90 minutes.
The numbers
Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Stoke City 1.09, Derby 0.39, from 12 shots to 3 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).
Discipline
E. Bell showed three yellow cards — against 3.3 yellows a game across the last 20 matches refereed (all competitions). The bookings — Stoke City: Benjamin Wilmot (78’); Derby: Liam Thompson (38’) and Kayden Jackson (54’).
What it changes
Stoke City are first after this result (one league match played). Stoke City have scored 51 goals, the seventh-fewest of the 24 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 46 games). Stoke City have conceded 56 goals, the fifth-fewest (shared) of the 24 clubs.
Derby are 24th after this result (one league match played). Derby have scored 67 goals, the seventh-most of the 24 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 46 games). Derby have conceded 59 goals, the 12th-fewest (shared) of the 24 clubs.
Who stood out
By TACTIX Impact for this match, S. Thomas (Stoke City) 8.1, Jamie Donley (Stoke City) 5.9 and L. Baker (Stoke City) 5.7 led the match.
What the model said
The model’s free pick, Under 2.5 goals, did not land — graded in the live track record, misses included.
Next up
Stoke City next host Birmingham on 21 November 2026.
Derby next travel to Southampton on 21 November 2026.
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
Next for Stoke City: Stoke City v Birmingham, Saturday 21 November — the preview. Next for Derby: Southampton v Derby, Saturday 21 November — the preview.
The Numbers
- Result: Stoke City 3–1 Derby · Championship
- Referee: E. Bell
- Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
- Head-to-head (last 6): Stoke City 2 · draws 2 · Derby 2 · 1.67 goals/game
- Recent form: Stoke City 2W 1D 2L · Derby 2W 2D 1L
Stoke City 3–1 Derby (Championship): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →
Key Stats
Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 3 May 2025. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
| Per game | Stoke City for / against | Line | Derby for / against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 1 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5 | 2.5standard | 1 for · 0.63 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Corners won | 4.25 for · 3.63 against n 8 Last 5 | 9.5standard | 5.33 for · 4.17 against n 6 Last 5 |
| Shots | 9.63 for · 12.25 against n 8 Last 5 | 19.5standard | 9.5 for · 8.83 against n 6 Last 5 |
| Shots on target | 3.5 for · 4 against n 8 Last 5 | 8.5standard | 3.33 for · 2 against n 6 Last 5 |
| Fouls committed | 12.25 for · 10.75 against n 8 Last 5 | 21.5standard | 12.33 for · 10.5 against n 6 Last 5 |
| Cards shown | 1.88 for · 2.13 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.5standard | 2.17 for · 1.83 against n 6 Last 5 |
Referee: E. Bell.
The next free picks, by email
The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.
Match Statistics & Details
| Stoke City | Derby | |
|---|---|---|
| 68% | Possession | 32% |
| 1.09 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.39 |
| 12 | Shots | 3 |
| 7 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 4 | Shots off target | 1 |
| 1 | Blocked shots | 0 |
| 6 | Shots inside the box | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 2 | Offsides | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 1 | Saves | 4 |
| 441 | Passes | 205 |
| 86% | Pass accuracy | 61% |
Stoke City Player Stats
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | SoT | KP | Tkl | Cards | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Johansson | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.3 |
| J. Tchamadeu | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6.3 |
| B. Wilmot | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | Y | 6.9 |
| A. Cresswell | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.7 |
| L. Baker | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7.9 |
| Bae Jun-Ho | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6.7 |
| S. Thomas | 90 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7.2 |
| D. Mubama | 89 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.5 |
| B. Pearson | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6.9 |
| Bosun Lawal | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6.7 |
| M. Manhoef | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7.3 |
| R. Boženík sub | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.2 |
| A. Phillips sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.9 |
| J. Donley sub | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7.2 |
| T. Seko sub | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
Derby Player Stats
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | SoT | KP | Tkl | Cards | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Widell Zetterström | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.2 |
| R. Nyambe | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| D. Batth | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.2 |
| M. Clarke | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5.9 |
| C. Forsyth | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6.3 |
| L. Thompson | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Y | 6.3 |
| C. Morris | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.6 |
| E. Adams | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| K. Jackson | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | Y | 6.2 |
| C. Blackett-Taylor | 80 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6.9 |
| K. Goudmijn | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.5 |
| D. Ozoh sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6.3 |
| A. Weimann sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.7 |
| D. Sanderson sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – |
Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.
Form, Head-to-Head & Standings
The numbers behind Stoke City v Derby — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
- 2025-05-03 Derby 0–0 Stoke City
- 2024-11-02 Stoke City 2–1 Derby
- 2021-12-30 Stoke City 1–2 Derby
- 2021-09-18 Derby 2–1 Stoke City
- 2021-03-20 Stoke City 1–0 Derby
- 2020-12-12 Derby 0–0 Stoke City
The Full Post-Match Picture
Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.
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Frequently Asked Questions
- What was the model’s pick for Stoke City v Derby?
- TACTIX’s free model pick for Stoke City v Derby was Under 2.5 goals.
- What is the head-to-head record between Stoke City and Derby?
- In their last 6 meetings, Stoke City won 2, Derby won 2 and there were 2 draws, averaging 1.67 goals per game.
- What is the recent form of Stoke City and Derby?
- Recent form — Stoke City 2W 1D 2L; Derby 2W 2D 1L.
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