This Matchweek

WatfordLincoln

Watford v Lincoln result

Full-time · Watford 1–0 Lincoln

Championship · · Vicarage Road

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Watford · Lincoln

The model’s pre-match pick

Watford 1–0 Lincoln — Watford won this Championship match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
Best price: 2.00 at Betano
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 67.2% of 549 landed (95% range 63.2–71%); it had given them 75.9% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Watford beat Lincoln 1–0 at Vicarage Road in the Championship on Tuesday 3 November.

The goals

It was 0–0 at half-time. The goals — Watford: Stephy Mavididi (46’, assisted by Myron Boadu).

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) had little between the sides: Watford 0.71, Lincoln 0.83, from 18 shots to 12 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

The bookings — Watford: Stephy Mavididi (50’), K. Keben (56’), Branimir Mlačić (80’), Edouard Kayembe (88’) and Hector Kyprianou (90’); Lincoln: Benjamin House (47’) and Sonny Bradley (88’).

What it changes

Watford move up from 21st to 20th (14 league matches played). Watford have scored 13 goals, the fourth-fewest of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 14 games). Watford have conceded 23 goals, the ninth-most (shared) of the 24 clubs.

Lincoln move down from 15th to 16th (14 league matches played). Lincoln have scored 14 goals, the fifth-fewest of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 14 games). Lincoln have conceded 24 goals, the seventh-most (shared) of the 24 clubs.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Benjamin House (Lincoln) 6.7, Marc Bola (Watford) 5.1 and Stephy Mavididi (Watford) 4.5 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, did not land — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

Watford next host Middlesbrough on 7 November 2026.

Lincoln next travel to QPR on 7 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Watford: Watford v Middlesbrough, Saturday 7 November — the preview. Next for Lincoln: QPR v Lincoln, Saturday 7 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Watford 1–0 Lincoln · Championship
  • Venue: Vicarage Road · Watford
  • Referee: James Bell
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Recent form: Watford 1W 0D 4L · Lincoln 1W 1D 3L

Watford 1–0 Lincoln (Championship): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 5 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1 / 1.25
Goals
against 2.13 / 2.13 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
3.38 / 2.63
Corners
against 6 / 7.88 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
4.38 / 3.63
Shots on target
against 6 / 5.63 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.25 / 2.75
Cards
against 2.13 / 2.38 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 31 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 31 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameWatford for / againstLineLincoln for / against
Goals scored
1 for · 2.13 against n 8
2.5our book
1.25 for · 2.13 against n 8
Corners won
3.38 for · 6 against n 8
9.5standard
2.63 for · 7.88 against n 8
Shots
11.63 for · 18.13 against n 8
19.5standard
11.25 for · 15.5 against n 8
Shots on target
4.38 for · 6 against n 8
8.5standard
3.63 for · 5.63 against n 8
Fouls committed
10.75 for · 11.75 against n 8
21.5standard
12.25 for · 11.5 against n 8
Cards shown
2.25 for · 2.13 against n 8
3.5standard
2.75 for · 2.38 against n 8

Referee: James Bell.

Watford

Watford Goalkeeper

Watford — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
F. Ravaglia14911272 min503.5 /90201.4 /9010.1 /90
D. Bachmann19090 min66 /9055 /9000 /90
Watford — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Watford before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
F. Ravaglia n 890
4.38/8

Watford Defensive

Watford — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
M. Pollock14911272 min171.2 /90191.3 /90201.4 /90543.8 /90161.1 /9030.2 /90
K. Keben14881227 min201.5 /90100.7 /90141 /90453.3 /90110.8 /9020.1 /90
J. Zemura1257681 min162.1 /90141.9 /9010.1 /90445.8 /90121.6 /9030.4 /90
O. Traoré1066661 min111.5 /9060.8 /9010.1 /90223 /9081.1 /9010.1 /90
M. Bola654326 min51.4 /9071.9 /9010.3 /90185 /9000 /9000 /90
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Watford — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Watford before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Hector Kyprianou n 890
1.17/2
1.67/5
—
M. Pollock n 890
0.95/2
0.53/1
D. Elerewe
F. Ravaglia n 890
00/0
0.43/0
—
K. Keben n 890
0.84/1
0.32/0
D. Elerewe
E. Kayembe n 890
0.94/3
0.96/1
—
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Watford — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Watford before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Hector Kyprianou n 890
1.86/6
M. Pollock n 890
16/2
K. Keben n 890
1.16/2
E. Kayembe n 890
1.67/4
Iker Bravo n 865.4
0.93/1
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Watford Attacking

Watford — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
M. Doumbia1357741 min20.2 /9000 /90172.1 /90101.2 /9081 /9020.2 /90
L. Kjerrumgaard965581 min20.3 /9000 /90121.9 /9040.6 /9071.1 /9020.3 /90
Rocco Vata933295 min00 /9000 /90113.4 /9051.5 /9072.1 /9041.2 /90
M. Boadu653319 min20.6 /9000 /9072 /9030.8 /9020.6 /9020.6 /90
S. Mavididi542210 min00 /9000 /9020.9 /9010.4 /9031.3 /9073 /90
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Watford — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Watford before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Hector Kyprianou n 890
0.54/0
0.32/0
M. Pollock n 890
0.11/0
00/0
F. Ravaglia n 890
00/0
00/0
K. Keben n 890
0.42/1
00/0
E. Kayembe n 890
1.56/3
0.52/2
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Watford — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Watford before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Hector Kyprianou n 890
0.11/0
00/0
M. Pollock n 890
00/0
0.11/0
F. Ravaglia n 890
00/0
00/0
K. Keben n 890
00/0
00/0
E. Kayembe n 890
0.11/0
0.11/0
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Lincoln

Lincoln Goalkeeper

Lincoln — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
G. Wickens14901265 min453.2 /90130.9 /9010.1 /90
J. Gauci290180 min63 /9010.5 /9000 /90
Lincoln — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lincoln before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
G. Wickens n 890
2.98/3

Lincoln Defensive

Lincoln — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
D. Elerewe15851276 min151.1 /90231.6 /9080.6 /90725.1 /90130.9 /9020.1 /90
R. Towler1177842 min91 /90151.6 /90111.2 /90353.7 /9050.5 /9020.2 /90
S. Bradley1077765 min50.6 /9040.5 /9060.7 /90364.2 /9020.2 /9000 /90
Andrei Coubiș1072724 min101.2 /90131.6 /9000 /90344.2 /9081 /9010.1 /90
C. Elder587433 min122.5 /9030.6 /9010.2 /90214.4 /9040.8 /9010.2 /90
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Lincoln — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lincoln before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
D. Elerewe n 889.3
0.84/2
0.94/2
K. Keben
G. Wickens n 890
00/0
00/0
—
F. Draper n 863.6
3.47/3
1.85/3
—
R. Hackett n 865.3
0.32/0
0.21/0
—
R. Street n 851.9
1.55/2
1.54/2
—
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Lincoln — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lincoln before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
D. Elerewe n 889.3
16/2
F. Draper n 863.6
0.94/1
R. Hackett n 865.3
2.15/4
R. Street n 851.9
0.94/0
A. Reach n 881.4
1.76/4
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Lincoln Attacking

Lincoln — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
F. Draper1462866 min20.2 /9010.1 /90171.8 /9070.7 /90111.1 /9030.3 /90
R. Street1452722 min20.2 /9000 /90111.4 /9040.5 /9070.9 /9010.1 /90
B. House1374965 min30.3 /9020.2 /90181.7 /9090.8 /9040.4 /9050.5 /90
C. Ogbene741290 min00 /9000 /9041.2 /9020.6 /9010.3 /9051.6 /90
M. Ladefoged651303 min30.9 /9010.3 /90123.6 /9041.2 /9072.1 /9000 /90
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Lincoln — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lincoln before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
D. Elerewe n 889.3
0.86/0
0.32/0
G. Wickens n 890
0.11/0
00/0
F. Draper n 863.6
2.17/3
0.94/1
R. Hackett n 865.3
1.43/2
0.72/1
R. Street n 851.9
0.94/0
0.73/0
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Lincoln — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lincoln before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
D. Elerewe n 889.3
00/0
00/0
G. Wickens n 890
00/0
00/0
F. Draper n 863.6
0.42/0
00/0
R. Hackett n 865.3
0.21/0
0.21/0
R. Street n 851.9
0.21/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
WatfordLincoln
59%Possession41%
0.71Expected goals (xG)0.83
18Shots12
2Shots on target1
10Shots off target4
6Blocked shots7
6Shots inside the box8
7Corners6
1Offsides0
17Fouls10
5Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
1Saves1
443Passes288

Watford Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
M. Pollock9000000107.2
F. Ravaglia9000000007.5
M. Bola9000303307.3
E. Kayembe90003022Y6.6
K. Keben90000000Y6.3
Hector Kyprianou90002112Y6.8
Iker Bravo8600202007.1
O. Maamma7000100206.1
S. Mavididi70103120Y7.9
O. Traoré6100100006.7
M. Boadu6001101006.9
M. Doumbia3000000006.7
K. Diatta2900000106.5
M. Payero2000100106.5
Branimir Mlačić20001000Y6
Amin Nabizada400000006.4

Lincoln Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Y. Konak9000100105.9
B. House90001137Y6.6
F. Draper9000200306.1
Andrei Coubiș9000001206.8
S. Bradley90000001Y6.5
G. Wickens9000001006
D. Elerewe7900100005.6
T. Bayliss7900200306.1
D. Oyegoke7000001206.4
C. Ogbene6100100106.2
C. Elder6100001206.6
R. Street2900301006.5
R. Hackett2900100006.3
T. Hamer2000000106.2
A. Reach1100001006.4
D. Jefferies1100000005.8

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Watford v Lincoln — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
WatfordLLWLL
Last 5: 1W 0D 4L · 1 scored / 2.6 conceded per game
LincolnLLDWL
Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 1.4 scored / 3 conceded per game
League standing · 2026/27
Watford#20 pos14 pts14 pl-10 GD
Lincoln#19 pos15 pts14 pl-10 GD
Goals per game
Watford scored0.93
Lincoln scored1
Watford conceded1.64
Lincoln conceded1.71

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Watford v Lincoln?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Watford v Lincoln was Over 2.5 goals (best price 2.00 at Betano).
What is the recent form of Watford and Lincoln?
Recent form — Watford 1W 0D 4L; Lincoln 1W 1D 3L.

Today’s Boards

Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.

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