Flamengo v Atletico-MG result

Full-time · Flamengo 0–1 Atletico-MG

Copa Do Brasil ·

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Flamengo · Atletico-MG · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Flamengo 0–1 Atletico-MG — Atletico-MG won this Copa Do Brasil match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Under 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Under 2.5 goals
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value vs the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Under 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 52.5% of 177 landed (95% range 45.2–59.8%); it had given them 77.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Atletico-MG won 1–0 at Flamengo in Copa Do Brasil on Friday 1 August. It is Atletico-MG’s first win over Flamengo since 29 November 2023, after five meetings without one (the 6 prior meetings TACTIX holds).

The goals

It was 0–0 at half-time. The goals — Atletico-MG: Cuello (66’).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s one key moment (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Cuello’s goal on 66 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) had little between the sides: Flamengo 0.00, Atletico-MG 0.00, from 21 shots to 13 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

Raphael Claus, Brazil showed two yellow cards — against 3.8 yellows a game across the last 21 matches refereed (all competitions). The bookings — Flamengo: Wallace Yan (90’); Atletico-MG: Lyanco (90’).

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Cuello (Atletico-MG) 8.2, J. Alonso (Atletico-MG) 4.8 and Samuel Lino (Flamengo) 4.4 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Under 2.5 goals, landed — graded in the live track record like every other call.

Next up

Flamengo next travel to Bahia on 18 October 2026.

Atletico-MG next travel to Atletico Torque on 21 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Flamengo: Bahia v Flamengo, Sunday 18 October — the preview. Next for Atletico-MG: Atletico Torque v Atletico-MG, Wednesday 21 October — the preview.

The numbers

  • Result: Flamengo 0–1 Atletico-MG · Copa Do Brasil
  • Referee: Raphael Claus, Brazil
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Flamengo 4 · draws 1 · Atletico-MG 1 · 2.5 goals/game
  • Recent form: Flamengo 4W 0D 1L · Atletico-MG 1W 0D 4L

Flamengo 0–1 Atletico-MG (Copa Do Brasil): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.5 / 1
Goals
against 1 / 1 · 1 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
6.13 / 5.5
Corners
against 3.5 / 5 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
5.75 / 3.75
Shots on target
against 2.75 / 4.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
3 / 4
Cards
against 2.63 / 2.63 · 5 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 28 July 2025. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 28 July 2025. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameFlamengo for / againstLineAtletico-MG for / against
Goals scored
1.5 for · 1 against n 8
2.5standard
1 for · 1 against n 8
Corners won
6.13 for · 3.5 against n 8
9.5standard
5.5 for · 5 against n 8
Shots
14.38 for · 8.38 against n 8
19.5standard
11.13 for · 13.88 against n 8
Shots on target
5.75 for · 2.75 against n 8
8.5standard
3.75 for · 4.25 against n 8
Fouls committed
15.13 for · 12 against n 8
21.5standard
14.38 for · 14.88 against n 8
Cards shown
3 for · 2.63 against n 8
3.5standard
4 for · 2.63 against n 8

Referee: Raphael Claus, Brazil.

Flamengo
Flamengo — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 28 July 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Bruno Henrique n 856.9
3.47/5
1.44/3
—
Juninho n 814.9
33/1
2.33/0
—
Ayrton Lucas n 853.8
2.55/4
1.76/1
—
M. Vina n 832
2.55/2
0.72/0
Lyanco
Allan n 861.3
2.47/4
1.54/2
Igor Gomes
Flamengo — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 28 July 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Pedro n 853.9
2.77/4
1.76/2
Wallace Yan n 822
2.64/1
24/0
Everton n 841.5
1.95/1
1.13/1
Bruno Henrique n 856.9
1.86/2
14/1
Allan n 861.3
1.55/2
0.93/1
Flamengo — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 28 July 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Wallace Yan n 822
1.53/0
0.51/0
Everton n 841.5
0.31/0
0.31/0
Luiz Araujo n 873.1
0.21/0
0.21/0
Bruno Henrique n 856.9
0.21/0
0.21/0
Pedro n 853.9
0.21/0
0.21/0
Flamengo — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 28 July 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Wesley n 882.6
3.78/6
Juninho n 814.9
34/0
Luiz Araujo n 873.1
2.88/7
G. de Arrascaeta n 872.4
2.26/5
Everton n 841.5
2.25/2
Flamengo — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 28 July 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
A. Rossi n 890
1.64/2
Atletico-MG
Atletico-MG — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 28 July 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Lyanco n 891
2.57/6
27/5
M. Vina
Bernard n 830.6
2.24/2
1.13/0
—
Patrick Silva n 756
2.15/3
2.15/3
—
Rony n 880.1
27/3
2.55/3
—
Igor Gomes n 840.3
25/2
1.44/1
Allan
Atletico-MG — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 28 July 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Cuello n 868.9
2.65/5
1.85/5
Hulk n 882.4
1.97/3
14/2
Gustavo Scarpa n 877.5
1.65/3
0.73/2
Rubens n 889.5
1.57/4
0.54/0
Rony n 880.1
1.57/4
16/1
Atletico-MG — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 28 July 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Hulk n 882.4
0.53/1
0.11/0
Cuello n 868.9
0.21/0
0.21/0
Bernard n 830.6
00/0
0.41/0
Junior Santos n 826.8
0.41/0
00/0
Igor Rabello n 843.8
0.31/0
00/0
Atletico-MG — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 28 July 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Rubens n 889.5
3.58/7
Gabriel Menino n 842.6
2.94/4
Natanael n 876.1
2.88/7
F. Vera n 852.3
2.67/2
R. Saravia n 840.4
2.57/2
Atletico-MG — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 28 July 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Everson n 891.3
2.85/4

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
FlamengoAtletico-MG
66%Possession34%
21Shots13
3Shots on target4
9Shots off target8
9Blocked shots1
9Shots inside the box7
4Corners3
2Offsides1
11Fouls10
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
3Saves3
562Passes278
88%Pass accuracy78%

Flamengo player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
A. Rossi9600000007
Leo Ortiz9600000006.9
Leo Pereira9600102206.6
Evertton Araujo9600101307.3
Allan9600101106.9
Pedro9600312007.2
G. Plata7900110005.5
G. Varela7200000206.7
M. Vina5800100106.7
Matheus Goncalves5800004107.2
Luiz Araujo5800100006.9
Ayrton Lucas sub3800001106.3
Samuel Lino sub3800112207.2
Wallace Yan sub38001010Y6.6
Emerson Royal sub2400100006.9
S. Niguez sub1700001006.9

Atletico-MG player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Everson9600000007.5
Lyanco96000002Y7.3
J. Alonso9600000407.2
Gustavo Scarpa9600222007.7
Gabriel Menino9600201407.7
A. Franco9600000306.9
Cuello9610421407.9
R. Saravia8000001107
Igor Gomes7700104007
Hulk7700302207.2
Rony6800000306.6
Alexsander sub2800000006.3
F. Vera sub1900000006.5
Junior Santos sub1900000006.3
Igor Rabello sub1600000006.7

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Flamengo v Atletico-MG — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
FlamengoWLWWW
Last 5: 4W 0D 1L · 1.2 scored / 0.4 conceded per game
Atletico-MGLWLLL
Last 5: 1W 0D 4L · 0.8 scored / 1.4 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Flamengo 4 · 1 draw · Atletico-MG 1 · 2.5 goals/game
  • 2025-07-27 Flamengo 1–0 Atletico-MG
  • 2024-11-13 Flamengo 0–0 Atletico-MG
  • 2024-11-10 Atletico-MG 0–1 Flamengo
  • 2024-11-03 Flamengo 3–1 Atletico-MG
  • 2024-07-04 Atletico-MG 2–4 Flamengo
  • 2023-11-29 Flamengo 0–3 Atletico-MG
Goals per game
Flamengo scored1.2
Atletico-MG scored0.8
Flamengo conceded0.4
Atletico-MG conceded1.4

The full post-match picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Flamengo vs Atletico-MG?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Flamengo v Atletico-MG was Under 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Atletico-MG?
In their last 6 meetings, Flamengo won 4, Atletico-MG won 1 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2.5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Flamengo and Atletico-MG?
Recent form — Flamengo 4W 0D 1L; Atletico-MG 1W 0D 4L.

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