Machida Zelvia v Cerezo Osaka result

Full-time · Machida Zelvia 3–0 Cerezo Osaka

J1 League · Sat, 16 Aug 2025 11:00 BST · Machida GION Stadium

Updated 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Machida Zelvia · Cerezo Osaka

The model’s pre-match pick

Machida Zelvia 3–0 Cerezo Osaka — Machida Zelvia won this J1 League match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Draw.

Free pick

Home or Draw

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value vs the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Draw in the last 90 days, 75.2% of 1485 landed (95% range 72.9–77.3%); it had given them 75.1% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →

Match report, in numbers

The result

Machida Zelvia beat Cerezo Osaka 3–0 at Machida GION Stadium in the J1 League on Saturday 16 August.

Machida Zelvia have won their last seven matches.

The goals

Machida Zelvia led 2–0 at half-time. The goals — Machida Zelvia: Sang-Ho Na (21’, assisted by Henry Heroki Mochizuki), Kotaro Hayashi (42’, assisted by Gen Shoji) and Se-hun Oh (78’, assisted by Y. Soma).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s three key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Sang-Ho Na’s goal on 21 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) had little between the sides: Machida Zelvia 0.74, Cerezo Osaka 0.90, from 12 shots to 9 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

The bookings — Machida Zelvia: Y. Soma (77’); Cerezo Osaka: Rafael Ratao (20’), Shunta Tanaka (66’) and Lucas Fernandes (86’).

What it changes

Machida Zelvia have scored in seven consecutive matches. Machida Zelvia have kept a clean sheet in their last five matches.

Machida Zelvia’s three-goal margin was the biggest of round 26, across 10 matches.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Henry Heroki Mochizuki (Machida Zelvia) 6.8, Sang-Ho Na (Machida Zelvia) 6.3 and Kotaro Hayashi (Machida Zelvia) 6.1 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Machida Zelvia or the draw, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record like every other call. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 75.2% of the time in the last 90 days (1116 of 1485).

Next up

Machida Zelvia next host Avispa Fukuoka on 18 October 2026.

Cerezo Osaka next travel to Nagoya Grampus on 21 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Machida Zelvia: Machida Zelvia v Avispa Fukuoka, Sunday 18 October — the preview. Next for Cerezo Osaka: Nagoya Grampus v Cerezo Osaka, Wednesday 21 October — the preview.

The numbers

Result: Machida Zelvia 3–0 Cerezo Osaka · J1 League
Venue: Machida GION Stadium · Machida
Referee: Hiroki Kasahara, Japan
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 3): Machida Zelvia 2 · draws 1 · Cerezo Osaka 0 · 2 goals/game
Recent form: Machida Zelvia 5W 0D 0L · Cerezo Osaka 2W 2D 1L

Machida Zelvia 3–0 Cerezo Osaka (J1 League): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

2 / 2

Goals

against 0.88 / 1.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

5 / 7.63

Corners

against 3.13 / 4.5 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

5.13 / 6.13

Shots on target

against 3.13 / 4 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

0.75 / 0.88

Cards

against 0.13 / 1.13 · 0 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 11 August 2025. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 11 August 2025. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	Machida Zelvia for / against	Line	Cerezo Osaka for / against
Goals scored	2 for · 0.88 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	2 for · 1.25 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	5 for · 3.13 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	7.63 for · 4.5 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	13.88 for · 12 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	17.25 for · 13.25 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	5.13 for · 3.13 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	6.13 for · 4 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	13.38 for · 7.75 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	10.25 for · 12.75 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	0.75 for · 0.13 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	0.88 for · 1.13 against n 8 Last 5

Referee: Hiroki Kasahara, Japan.

Machida Zelvia

Machida Zelvia — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 11 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
K. Kuwayama n 8	15.3	3.7 4/1	0 0/0	—
Mitchell Duke n 8	25.4	2.7 4/2	0.9 2/0	—
Shota Fujio n 8	60.3	2.1 5/3	0.7 3/1	Rafael Ratao
Y. Soma n 8	77.9	1.7 7/4	1.4 7/2	Thiago Andrade
Kotaro Hayashi n 8	86.6	1.6 7/2	0.1 1/0	Shunta Tanaka

Machida Zelvia — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 11 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Y. Soma n 8	77.9	2.6 7/5	1.9 7/4
Se-hun Oh n 8	48.4	2.3 6/3	0.9 3/1
T. Numata n 8	18.1	1.9 3/0	1.2 2/0
Mitchell Duke n 8	25.4	1.8 4/0	0.9 2/0
T. Nishimura n 8	84	1.7 7/5	0.7 4/1

Machida Zelvia — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 11 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Y. Soma n 8	77.9	0.9 5/1	0.1 1/0
Sang-Ho Na n 8	30.4	0.4 1/0	0.4 1/0
T. Numata n 8	18.1	0.6 1/0	0 0/0
T. Nishimura n 8	84	0.1 1/0	0.4 3/0
Shota Fujio n 8	60.3	0.2 1/0	0.2 1/0

Machida Zelvia — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 11 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Ibrahim Drešević n 8	52.3	3 6/3
Kotaro Hayashi n 8	86.6	2.5 8/7
Ryuho Kikuchi n 8	66.3	2.5 4/3
Ryohei Shirasaki n 8	33	2 3/3
Keiya Sento n 8	34.9	1.9 5/1

Machida Zelvia — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 11 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Kosei Tani n 8	90	2.4 6/2

Cerezo Osaka

Cerezo Osaka — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 11 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
T. Nakamura n 4	23.5	1.9 2/0	0 0/0	—
Thiago Andrade n 8	57.9	1.7 6/3	1.6 5/3	Y. Soma
Shunta Tanaka n 8	75.5	1.6 4/4	1.3 5/3	Kotaro Hayashi
Motohiko Nakajima n 8	46.4	1.5 4/1	1 4/0	—
Rafael Ratao n 8	79.4	1.4 6/3	0.9 4/1	Shota Fujio

Cerezo Osaka — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 11 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Motohiko Nakajima n 8	46.4	3.2 6/4	2.2 5/3
Shion Homma n 8	23.5	2.9 3/2	1 2/0
Masaya Shibayama n 8	27.8	2.8 3/1	1.6 3/1
Rafael Ratao n 8	79.4	2.6 7/6	1.4 6/3
S. Kitano n 8	51.5	2.6 5/4	0.7 3/0

Cerezo Osaka — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 11 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Lucas Fernandes n 8	89.9	0.4 3/0	0.8 4/2
Rafael Ratao n 8	79.4	0.7 5/0	0.1 1/0
Motohiko Nakajima n 8	46.4	0.5 2/0	0.2 1/0
S. Kitano n 8	51.5	0.2 1/0	0.4 1/1
Shion Homma n 8	23.5	0 0/0	0.5 1/0

Cerezo Osaka — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 11 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
R. Sakata n 8	28.6	3.5 6/3
Thiago Andrade n 8	57.9	2.9 6/4
Dion Cools n 8	78.5	2.6 7/5
K. Yoshino n 8	48	2.6 5/3
Shunta Tanaka n 8	75.5	2.2 6/6

Cerezo Osaka — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 11 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
K. Fukui n 8	90	2.5 6/3

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Machida Zelvia		Cerezo Osaka
34%	Possession	66%
0.74	Expected goals (xG)	0.90
12	Shots	9
4	Shots on target	5
5	Shots off target	2
3	Blocked shots	2
8	Shots inside the box	5
3	Corners	4
1	Offsides	1
14	Fouls	8
1	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
5	Saves	1
318	Passes	623
76%	Pass accuracy	87%

Machida Zelvia player stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
Kosei Tani	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8.2
Ibrahim Drešević	90	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	7.2
Daihachi Okamura	90	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	7.3
Gen Shoji	90	0	1	1	0	2	1	0	7.9
Henry Heroki Mochizuki	90	0	1	0	0	2	2	0	7.3
Yuta Nakayama	90	0	0	2	1	1	3	0	7.3
Hiroyuki Mae	87	0	0	0	0	1	4	0	7.2
Kotaro Hayashi	82	1	0	1	1	0	3	0	7.2
Y. Soma	82	0	1	1	0	2	1	Y	7.9
Sang-Ho Na	64	1	0	2	1	1	0	0	7.2
Shota Fujio	64	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.7
Keiya Sento sub	27	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	6.6
Se-hun Oh sub	27	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	7.3
Hokuto Shimoda sub	10	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.3
T. Numata sub	9	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.5
Neta Lavi sub	9	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.9

Cerezo Osaka player stats

Player	Min	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
K. Fukui	90	0	0	0	0	0	6.2
Rikito Inoue	90	0	0	1	0	0	6.3
Shinnosuke Hatanaka	90	0	0	0	2	0	6.9
Hayato Okuda	90	1	0	0	1	0	6.7
Shunta Tanaka	90	0	0	1	2	Y	6.9
Rafael Ratao	90	2	2	0	0	Y	5.9
Lucas Fernandes	87	0	0	3	1	Y	6.6
Dion Cools	64	0	0	0	2	0	6.3
Thiago Andrade	64	1	1	1	0	0	6.9
Hinata Kida	45	0	0	1	0	0	6.7
Motohiko Nakajima	45	2	2	0	0	0	6.6
K. Yoshino sub	45	0	0	0	1	0	6.9
Shinji Kagawa sub	45	1	0	0	0	0	6.6
Ayumu Ohata sub	27	0	0	0	0	0	6.3
Shion Homma sub	27	0	0	0	1	0	6.5
R. Sakata sub	10	0	0	0	0	0	6.7

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Machida Zelvia v Cerezo Osaka — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

Machida ZelviaWWWWW

Last 5: 5W 0D 0L · 2.4 scored / 0.2 conceded per game

Cerezo OsakaDWLDW

Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · 2 scored / 1.6 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 3

Machida Zelvia 2 · 1 draw · Cerezo Osaka 0 · 2 goals/game

2025-04-29 Cerezo Osaka 1–2 Machida Zelvia
2024-08-07 Cerezo Osaka 0–0 Machida Zelvia
2024-05-15 Machida Zelvia 2–1 Cerezo Osaka

League standing · 2025

Last recorded position — not updated during the season.

Machida Zelvia#6 pos60 pts38 pl+14 GD

Cerezo Osaka#10 pos52 pts38 pl+3 GD

Goals per game

Machida Zelvia scored1.37

Cerezo Osaka scored1.58

Machida Zelvia conceded1

Cerezo Osaka conceded1.5

The full post-match picture

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Machida Zelvia v Cerezo Osaka?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Machida Zelvia v Cerezo Osaka was Home or Draw.
What is the head-to-head record between Machida Zelvia and Cerezo Osaka?: In their last 3 meetings, Machida Zelvia won 2, Cerezo Osaka won 0 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Machida Zelvia and Cerezo Osaka?: Recent form — Machida Zelvia 5W 0D 0L; Cerezo Osaka 2W 2D 1L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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