This Matchweek

AlavesValencia

Alaves v Valencia result

Full-time · Alaves 0–1 Valencia

La Liga · · Estadio de Mendizorroza

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Alaves · Valencia · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Alaves 0–1 Valencia — Valencia won this La Liga match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Draw.

Free pick
Home or Draw
Best price: 1.17 at Betano
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Draw in the last 90 days, 76.4% of 1736 landed (95% range 74.4–78.4%); it had given them 75.1% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated home or draw (double chance) between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 1,040 of 1,388 times (74.9%), against an average rating of 70.3%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said Alaves: 1.32 to 0.84 in expected goals, from 15 shots to 10, ahead on xG from the 38th minute (per-shot expected goals for this match). The result went the other way.

The result

Valencia won 1–0 at Estadio de Mendizorroza in La Liga on Tuesday 15 September.

The goals

It was 0–0 at half-time. The goals — Valencia: Luis Rioja (78’, assisted by Javi Guerra).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s one key moment (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Luis Rioja’s goal on 78 minutes.

Discipline

Miguel Sesma Espinosa, Spain showed five yellow cards — against 3.9 yellows a game across the last 9 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Alaves: Antonio Blanco (21’); Valencia: Javi Guerra (21’), Pepelu (45+2’), Aaron Mayol (52’) and Guido Rodríguez (61’).

What it changes

Alaves move down from second to fourth (six league matches played). Alaves have scored 15 goals, the 10th-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 11 games, ranked per game). Alaves have conceded 17 goals, the 10th-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Valencia move up from 20th to 17th (six league matches played). Valencia have scored eight goals, the third-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 11 games, ranked per game). Valencia have conceded 17 goals, the 10th-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Stole Dimitrievski (Valencia) 4.8, Luis Rioja (Valencia) 4.4 and Pablo Ibáñez (Alaves) 4.3 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Alaves or the draw, a Bronze-tier call, did not land — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 76.4% of the time in the last 90 days (1327 of 1736).

Next up

Alaves next travel to Sevilla on 6 November 2026.

Valencia next host Real Madrid on 7 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Alaves: Sevilla v Alaves, Friday 6 November — the preview. Next for Valencia: Valencia v Real Madrid, Saturday 7 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Alaves 0–1 Valencia · La Liga
  • Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza · Vitoria-Gasteiz
  • Referee: Miguel Sesma Espinosa, Spain
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Alaves 3 · draws 2 · Valencia 1 · 2 goals/game
  • Recent form: Alaves 3W 1D 1L · Valencia 0W 1D 4L

Alaves 0–1 Valencia (La Liga): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 5 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.75 / 1.13
Goals
against 0.88 / 1.88 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.25
over 8 matches
5.63 / 4.13
Corners
against 5 / 3.88 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
5.38 / 3.25
Shots on target
against 3.38 / 4.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.25 / 1.5
Cards
against 2.38 / 2.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
3.89 yellows
Referee · Miguel Sesma Espinosa, Spain
26.22 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 9 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 12 September 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 12 September 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameAlaves for / againstLineValencia for / against
Goals scored
1.75 for · 0.88 against n 8
2.25our book
1.13 for · 1.88 against n 8
Corners won
5.63 for · 5 against n 8
9.5standard
4.13 for · 3.88 against n 8
Shots
13.13 for · 10.25 against n 8
19.5standard
10.75 for · 12 against n 8
Shots on target
5.38 for · 3.38 against n 8
8.5standard
3.25 for · 4.25 against n 8
Fouls committed
15 for · 12.38 against n 8
21.5standard
10.25 for · 12.13 against n 8
Cards shown
2.25 for · 2.38 against n 8
3.5standard
1.5 for · 2.25 against n 8

Referee: Miguel Sesma Espinosa, Spain — 3.89 yellow cards a game, 0.44 red cards, 26.22 fouls over 9 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Alaves

Alaves Goalkeeper

Alaves — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Sivera590450 min153 /9051 /9000 /90
Alaves — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Alaves before kick-off, to 12 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Sivera n 890
2.56/3

Alaves Defensive

Alaves — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
V. Koski588440 min20.4 /9051 /9020.4 /9091.8 /9061.2 /9000 /90
Jonny584420 min122.6 /9040.9 /9030.6 /90234.9 /9010.2 /9000 /90
N. Tenaglia581405 min92 /9061.3 /9000 /90224.9 /9051.1 /9020.4 /90
Yusi425100 min76.3 /9000 /9010.9 /90119.9 /9010.9 /9000 /90
N. Valentini14545 min00 /9012 /9024 /9012 /9000 /9000 /90
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Alaves — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Alaves before kick-off, to 12 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Sivera n 890
00/0
00/0
—
V. Koski n 888.8
14/2
00/0
Pepelu
Antonio Blanco n 887
2.38/6
0.85/1
—
Jonny n 886.3
0.84/2
0.84/2
—
A. Rebbach n 879.5
2.58/5
1.15/3
—
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Alaves — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Alaves before kick-off, to 12 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
V. Koski n 888.8
0.85/1
Antonio Blanco n 887
1.96/5
Jonny n 886.3
2.16/5
A. Rebbach n 879.5
3.37/7
N. Tenaglia n 884.4
2.38/6
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Alaves Attacking

Alaves — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
M. Díaz547235 min31.1 /9031.1 /9083.1 /9083.1 /9031.1 /9051.9 /90
L. Boyé480319 min41.1 /9000 /9092.5 /9051.4 /9020.6 /9010.3 /90
Toni Martínez464257 min00 /9000 /9072.5 /9000 /9051.8 /9000 /90
Aitor Mañas23876 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9011.2 /9011.2 /90
A. Manas11919 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9014.7 /90
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Alaves — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Alaves before kick-off, to 12 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Sivera n 890
00/0
00/0
V. Koski n 888.8
0.32/0
0.32/0
Antonio Blanco n 887
0.94/2
0.11/0
Jonny n 886.3
0.43/0
0.11/0
A. Rebbach n 879.5
0.85/1
0.63/1
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Alaves — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Alaves before kick-off, to 12 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Sivera n 890
00/0
0.11/0
V. Koski n 888.8
0.11/0
00/0
Antonio Blanco n 887
00/0
0.11/0
Jonny n 886.3
00/0
00/0
A. Rebbach n 879.5
00/0
0.11/0
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Valencia

Valencia Goalkeeper

Valencia — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
S. Dimitrievski590450 min163.2 /90102 /9000 /90
Valencia — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Valencia before kick-off, to 12 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
S. Dimitrievski n 890
2.87/5

Valencia Defensive

Valencia — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Pepelu578388 min81.9 /9040.9 /9010.2 /90122.8 /9030.7 /9000 /90
Jesús Vázquez568339 min92.4 /9030.8 /9010.3 /90225.8 /9061.6 /9000 /90
César Tárrega566330 min102.7 /9041.1 /9010.3 /90174.6 /9061.6 /9000 /90
M. Diakhaby472287 min20.6 /9061.9 /9020.6 /90113.4 /9010.3 /9020.6 /90
Pablo Maffeo440158 min21.1 /9021.1 /9000 /9074 /9031.7 /9010.6 /90
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Valencia — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Valencia before kick-off, to 12 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
S. Dimitrievski n 890
00/0
0.11/0
—
Pepelu n 869.4
0.52/1
0.53/0
V. Koski
Javi Guerra n 878.1
0.11/0
1.25/2
—
F. Ugrinic n 870.8
0.64/0
1.65/2
—
A. Danjuma n 856.4
1.25/1
1.25/1
—
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Valencia — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Valencia before kick-off, to 12 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Pepelu n 869.4
1.35/2
Javi Guerra n 878.1
0.95/1
F. Ugrinic n 870.8
1.44/2
A. Danjuma n 856.4
0.42/0
Jesús Vázquez n 867
2.28/5
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Valencia Attacking

Valencia — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
A. Danjuma570348 min00 /9000 /90102.6 /9041 /9010.3 /9020.5 /90
U. Sadiq353158 min10.6 /9000 /9031.7 /9031.7 /9010.6 /9021.1 /90
Hugo Duro333100 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9021.8 /9000 /90
Javi Guerra577385 min00 /9000 /9030.7 /9000 /9040.9 /9061.4 /90
F. Ugrinic575374 min00 /9000 /9041 /9020.5 /9041 /9010.2 /90
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Valencia — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Valencia before kick-off, to 12 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
S. Dimitrievski n 890
00/0
00/0
Pepelu n 869.4
00/0
00/0
Javi Guerra n 878.1
1.95/4
0.93/2
F. Ugrinic n 870.8
15/1
0.53/0
A. Danjuma n 856.4
25/3
0.83/1
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Valencia — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Valencia before kick-off, to 12 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
S. Dimitrievski n 890
00/0
00/0
Pepelu n 869.4
00/0
00/0
Javi Guerra n 878.1
0.42/1
0.11/0
F. Ugrinic n 870.8
00/0
00/0
A. Danjuma n 856.4
00/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
AlavesValencia
43%Possession57%
1.05Expected goals (xG)0.65
15Shots10
3Shots on target3
8Shots off target2
4Blocked shots5
11Shots inside the box5
2Corners5
3Offsides4
7Fouls14
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0
2Saves3
344Passes475
79%Pass accuracy82%

Alaves Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Sivera9000000106.9
N. Tenaglia9000001106.7
V. Koski9000110106.9
N. Valentini9000001106.9
Pablo Ibáñez9000301306.9
L. Boyé9000211206.2
Angel Pérez8500112007.2
Antonio Blanco85000004Y6.7
A. Rebbach8500000006.3
Denis Suárez6700002207.3
Toni Martínez6700300107.2
Yusi sub2300100006.5
M. Díaz sub2300000107.2
Miguel Rodríguez sub1100002106.9
Guevara sub1100001107
Carles Aleñá sub1100000006.3

Valencia Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
S. Dimitrievski9000001007.5
Pepelu90000001Y7.5
José Gayà9000000407.2
F. Ugrinic9000000006.3
Aaron Mayol90000001Y6.6
A. Danjuma9000114006.9
Javi Guerra90010020Y6.5
Pablo Maffeo8200110006.6
J. de Haas8200000107
G. Rodríguez70001004Y7
Hugo Duro6300000106.7
David Otorbi sub2000100106.6
Luis Rioja sub1910110007.7
Iker Córdoba sub800000006.9
Arnau Martínez sub800000206.7
Jesús Vázquez sub800000006.3

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Alaves v Valencia — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
AlavesWDWWL
Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 2.2 scored / 1 conceded per game
ValenciaDLLLL
Last 5: 0W 1D 4L · 0.2 scored / 2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Alaves 3 · 2 draws · Valencia 1 · 2 goals/game
  • 2026-03-08 Valencia 3–2 Alaves
  • 2025-10-20 Alaves 0–0 Valencia
  • 2025-05-14 Alaves 1–0 Valencia
  • 2024-12-22 Valencia 2–2 Alaves
  • 2024-05-05 Valencia 0–1 Alaves
  • 2023-09-02 Alaves 1–0 Valencia
League standing · 2026/27
Alaves#11 pos12 pts11 pl-2 GD
Valencia#19 pos9 pts11 pl-9 GD
Goals per game
Alaves scored1.36
Valencia scored0.73
Alaves conceded1.55
Valencia conceded1.55

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Alaves 1.32 xG from 15 shots, Valencia 0.84 from 10. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Pablo Ibáñez 39' · 0.39 xGVille Koski 47' · 0.29 xGLucas Boyé 24' · 0.11 xGAntonio Martínez 38' · 0.09 xGDavid Otorbi 83' · 0.08 xGAntonio Martínez 56' · 0.07 xGAbderrahmane Rebbach 70' · 0.06 xGHugo Duro 22' · 0.06 xGArnaut Danjuma Groeneveld 86' · 0.06 xGPablo Ibáñez 26' · 0.05 xGHugo Duro 21' · 0.05 xGÁngel Pérez 32' · 0.05 xGJavier Guerra 73' · 0.05 xGGuido Rodríguez 15' · 0.05 xGLucas Boyé 59' · 0.05 xGJavier Guerra 5' · 0.04 xGLucas Boyé 93' · 0.04 xGPablo Ibáñez 85' · 0.03 xGÁngel Pérez 47' · 0.03 xGPablo Maffeo 20' · 0.02 xGLucas Boyé 91' · 0.02 xGYoussef Lekhedim 90' · 0.02 xGArnaut Danjuma Groeneveld 51' · 0.02 xGAntonio Martínez 43' · 0.01 xGLuis Rioja 77' · 0.41 xG · goal
Alaves (attacking right)Valencia (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
Alaves1501.32
Valencia1010.84

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, Alaves led on xG, 0.71 to 0.23. At full time, Alaves led on xG, 1.32 to 0.84. The widest gap was 0.97 xG to Alaves, in the 70th minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)
1.30.700′15′30′45′60′75′90′105′MinutesCumulative xGGoal - Valencia 77 min
Alaves 1.32 xGValencia 0.84 xGdots = goals · 25 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Alaves v Valencia?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Alaves v Valencia was Home or Draw (best price 1.17 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Valencia?
In their last 6 meetings, Alaves won 3, Valencia won 1 and there were 2 draws, averaging 2 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Alaves and Valencia?
Recent form — Alaves 3W 1D 1L; Valencia 0W 1D 4L.

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