BournemouthAston Villa

Bournemouth v Aston Villa result

Full-time · Bournemouth 3–0 Aston Villa

League Cup · · Vitality Stadium

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Bournemouth · Aston Villa · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Bournemouth 3–0 Aston Villa — Bournemouth won this League Cup match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
Best price: 1.67 at Betano
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 67.2% of 549 landed (95% range 63.2–71%); it had given them 75.9% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Bournemouth beat Aston Villa 3–0 at Vitality Stadium in the League Cup on Wednesday 28 October. Bournemouth have scored in six consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

Bournemouth led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — Bournemouth: A. Adli (7’, assisted by J. Soler), Lewis Cook (51’, assisted by Ben Doak) and Á. Rodríguez (69’, assisted by Tyler Adams).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s three key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Lewis Cook’s goal on 51 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Bournemouth 2.75, Aston Villa 1.67, from 19 shots to 17 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

T. Harrington showed six yellow cards — against 2.9 yellows a game across the last 14 matches refereed (all competitions). The bookings — Bournemouth: Juanlu Sánchez (16’), Ben Doak (25’) and Lewis Cook (67’); Aston Villa: E. Buendía (12’), Brian Madjo (33’) and João Gomes (54’).

What it changes

Bournemouth have won their last five matches in all competitions. Bournemouth have kept a clean sheet in their last five matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Lewis Cook (Bournemouth) 5.6, Juanlu Sánchez (Bournemouth) 5.4 and Á. Rodríguez (Bournemouth) 5.3 led the match.

Head-to-head

Aston Villa are unbeaten in the last six meetings with Bournemouth, every meeting checked.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

Bournemouth next travel to Ipswich on 8 November 2026.

Aston Villa next travel to Manchester United on 8 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Bournemouth: Ipswich v Bournemouth, Sunday 8 November — the preview. Next for Aston Villa: Manchester United v Aston Villa, Sunday 8 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Bournemouth 3–0 Aston Villa · League Cup
  • Venue: Vitality Stadium · Bournemouth, Dorset
  • Referee: T. Harrington
  • Model coverage: 242 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Bournemouth 0 · draws 3 · Aston Villa 3 · 2.83 goals/game
  • Recent form: Bournemouth 4W 0D 1L · Aston Villa 4W 1D 0L

Bournemouth 3–0 Aston Villa (League Cup): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 242 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 5 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

2 / 2.63
Goals
against 1.13 / 1.13 · 1 of the last 5 over 3.25
over 8 matches
4.63 / 5.5
Corners
against 3.75 / 5 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
5.38 / 6.63
Shots on target
against 2.75 / 4.75 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.75 / 1.88
Cards
against 2.5 / 3.25 · 5 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
242
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 25 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 25 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameBournemouth for / againstLineAston Villa for / against
Goals scored
2 for · 1.13 against n 8
3.25our book
2.63 for · 1.13 against n 8
Corners won
4.63 for · 3.75 against n 8
9.5standard
5.5 for · 5 against n 8
Shots
16.38 for · 9.38 against n 8
19.5standard
15.5 for · 15.88 against n 8
Shots on target
5.38 for · 2.75 against n 8
8.5standard
6.63 for · 4.75 against n 8
Fouls committed
13.88 for · 12.5 against n 8
21.5standard
11.75 for · 14.63 against n 8
Cards shown
2.75 for · 2.5 against n 8
3.5standard
1.88 for · 3.25 against n 8

Referee: T. Harrington.

Bournemouth

Bournemouth Goalkeeper

Bournemouth — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Đ. Petrović1090900 min202 /90131.3 /9000 /90
M. Di Gregorio290180 min10.5 /9000 /9000 /90
Bournemouth — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bournemouth before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Đ. Petrović n 890
1.43/2

Bournemouth Defensive

Bournemouth — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
António Silva12891072 min201.7 /90121 /9060.5 /90705.9 /90110.9 /9040.3 /90
J. Hill12851018 min292.6 /90171.5 /90121.1 /90776.8 /90121.1 /9010.1 /90
Adrien Truffert1089894 min303 /90121.2 /9030.3 /90515.1 /90202 /9030.3 /90
A. Smith1081809 min80.9 /9060.7 /9010.1 /90353.9 /90111.2 /9030.3 /90
B. Diakité474297 min20.6 /9000 /9000 /9082.4 /9061.8 /9030.9 /90
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Bournemouth — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bournemouth before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
António Silva n 890
16/2
0.31/1
—
J. Hill n 882.3
16/1
14/3
—
Evanilson n 880.1
1.58/3
2.48/7
—
M. Tavernier n 877.3
15/2
0.74/1
E. Buendía
Rayan n 869.8
0.82/2
1.96/4
—
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Bournemouth — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bournemouth before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
António Silva n 890
1.97/5
J. Hill n 882.3
3.38/5
Evanilson n 880.1
1.45/4
M. Tavernier n 877.3
15/1
Rayan n 869.8
1.57/2
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Bournemouth Attacking

Bournemouth — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Evanilson1181887 min40.4 /9040.4 /90242.4 /90101 /90131.3 /9070.7 /90
B. Doak657343 min00 /9010.3 /9092.4 /9000 /9071.8 /9092.4 /90
Á. Rodríguez546230 min10.4 /9000 /90103.9 /9020.8 /9031.2 /9020.8 /90
D. Jebbison21530 min00 /9000 /9013 /9013 /9000 /9000 /90
M. Tavernier1181887 min60.6 /9000 /90212.1 /90121.2 /90232.3 /9070.7 /90
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Bournemouth — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bournemouth before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
António Silva n 890
0.64/1
0.11/0
J. Hill n 882.3
0.83/2
0.11/0
Evanilson n 880.1
2.97/7
1.47/2
M. Tavernier n 877.3
1.95/4
14/2
Rayan n 869.8
3.27/6
1.67/2
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Bournemouth — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bournemouth before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
António Silva n 890
00/0
00/0
J. Hill n 882.3
00/0
00/0
Evanilson n 880.1
0.64/0
0.32/0
M. Tavernier n 877.3
0.64/0
00/0
Rayan n 869.8
0.53/0
00/0
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Aston Villa

Aston Villa Goalkeeper

Aston Villa — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Z. Suzuki1186945 min383.6 /9090.9 /9000 /90
M. Bizot377231 min93.5 /9062.3 /9000 /90
Aston Villa — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Z. Suzuki n 884.4
3.77/5
M. Bizot n 879.6
3.87/5

Aston Villa Defensive

Aston Villa — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
V. Lindelöf12911086 min20.2 /9070.6 /9020.2 /90151.2 /9030.2 /9000 /90
M. Cash1077774 min303.5 /9030.3 /9060.7 /90435 /90172 /9040.5 /90
T. Mings971638 min60.8 /9030.4 /9020.3 /90233.2 /9040.6 /9010.1 /90
Pau Torres879628 min60.9 /9010.1 /9010.1 /90162.3 /9030.4 /9010.1 /90
I. Maatsen787606 min162.4 /90121.8 /9010.1 /90263.9 /9071 /9020.3 /90
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Aston Villa — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
J. McGinn n 877.4
0.94/2
2.97/5
—
V. Lindelöf n 890
0.42/1
0.11/0
—
E. Buendía n 862.1
1.47/1
2.77/5
M. Tavernier
R. Barkley n 848.1
2.86/4
1.44/1
—
Z. Suzuki n 884.4
00/0
0.43/0
—
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Aston Villa — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
J. McGinn n 877.4
27/4
V. Lindelöf n 890
0.11/0
E. Buendía n 862.1
3.65/4
R. Barkley n 848.1
2.13/3
B. Kamara n 884.4
2.77/5
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Aston Villa Attacking

Aston Villa — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
N. Jackson1173801 min70.8 /9000 /90293.3 /90161.8 /90131.5 /90232.6 /90
Alysson Edward936320 min10.3 /9010.3 /9041.1 /9020.6 /9061.7 /90113.1 /90
I. Mbaye842332 min00 /9041.1 /90123.3 /9061.6 /90154.1 /9061.6 /90
T. Abraham535177 min21 /9000 /9031.5 /9021 /9000 /9021 /90
A. Garnacho21733 min00 /9000 /9038.2 /9012.7 /9000 /9012.7 /90
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Aston Villa — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
J. McGinn n 877.4
1.34/3
0.73/1
V. Lindelöf n 890
0.11/0
0.11/0
E. Buendía n 862.1
2.96/4
1.33/3
R. Barkley n 848.1
2.15/2
1.65/2
Z. Suzuki n 884.4
00/0
00/0
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Aston Villa — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
J. McGinn n 877.4
0.11/0
0.43/0
V. Lindelöf n 890
00/0
00/0
E. Buendía n 862.1
0.53/0
00/0
R. Barkley n 848.1
0.93/1
0.52/0
Z. Suzuki n 884.4
00/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
BournemouthAston Villa
49%Possession51%
2.75Expected goals (xG)1.67
19Shots17
7Shots on target5
10Shots off target7
2Blocked shots5
16Shots inside the box13
6Corners2
4Offsides1
13Fouls15
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
5Saves4
456Passes486

Bournemouth Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
M. Di Gregorio9000000008
Juanlu Sánchez90001125Y6.6
B. Diakité9000001207.4
António Silva9000100207.3
J. Soler9001002106.7
L. Cook90102112Y8.1
Á. Rodríguez8010211107.6
R. Christie6300002206.6
B. Doak63012240Y7.7
Rayan4500000106.6
J. Kluivert4500302107.2
A. Adli4510310107.9
M. Tavernier4500301107.5
D. Brooks2700210106.8
T. Adams2701001007.2
E. Kroupi1000001006.7

Aston Villa Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
M. Bizot9000000006.7
L. Bogarde9000001106.4
Taylor Harwood-Bellis9000110406.3
T. Mings9000000006.5
I. Maatsen9000001206.1
João Gomes90001121Y6.8
Brian Madjo75002211Y6.2
L. Goretzka7000103106.6
E. Buendía70004030Y6.3
I. Mbaye5800100005.9
George Hemmings5800300006
Alysson Edward3200300106.4
A. Garnacho3200111006.6
R. Barkley2000000005.7
J. McGinn2000002006.5
T. Abraham1500000106.3

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Bournemouth v Aston Villa — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
BournemouthLWWWW
Last 5: 4W 0D 1L · 2.4 scored / 1 conceded per game
Aston VillaDWWWW
Last 5: 4W 1D 0L · 2.8 scored / 0.8 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Bournemouth 0 · 3 draws · Aston Villa 3 · 2.83 goals/game
  • 2026-02-07 Bournemouth 1–1 Aston Villa
  • 2025-11-09 Aston Villa 4–0 Bournemouth
  • 2025-05-10 Bournemouth 0–1 Aston Villa
  • 2024-10-26 Aston Villa 1–1 Bournemouth
  • 2024-04-21 Aston Villa 3–1 Bournemouth
  • 2023-12-03 Bournemouth 2–2 Aston Villa
Goals per game
Bournemouth scored2.4
Aston Villa scored2.8
Bournemouth conceded1
Aston Villa conceded0.8

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Bournemouth v Aston Villa?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Bournemouth v Aston Villa was Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.67 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Aston Villa?
In their last 6 meetings, Bournemouth won 0, Aston Villa won 3 and there were 3 draws, averaging 2.83 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Bournemouth and Aston Villa?
Recent form — Bournemouth 4W 0D 1L; Aston Villa 4W 1D 0L.

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