This Matchweek

LutonNotts County

Luton v Notts County result

Full-time · Luton 2–2 Notts County

League One · · Kenilworth Road

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Luton · Notts County

The model’s pre-match pick

Luton 2–2 Notts County — this League One match was drawn. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Draw.

Free pick
Home or Draw
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Draw in the last 90 days, 76.4% of 1739 landed (95% range 74.3–78.3%); it had given them 75.1% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Luton and Notts County drew 2–2 at Kenilworth Road in League One on Saturday 22 August. Luton are unbeaten in their last 14 matches in all competitions. Notts County are unbeaten in their last eight matches in all competitions.

The goals

It was 1–1 at half-time. The goals — Luton: Nahki Wells (42’ pen) and Callum Marshall (68’, assisted by Kasey Palmer); Notts County: Callum Roberts (45’) and Oliver Cooper (61’, assisted by Nicholas Tsaroulla).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s four key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Callum Marshall’s goal on 68 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) tell a different story: Luton out-shot Notts County 14 to 6 and created the better chances, 1.93 xG to 0.79 (the provider’s expected goals for this match). Variance.

Discipline

B. Speedie showed eight yellow cards — against 3.4 yellows a game across the last 11 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Luton: George Johnston (32’), Kallum Naismith (45’), Kasey Palmer (47’), Nahki Wells (56’) and Liam Walsh (90+3’); Notts County: Luka Smyth (31’), Scott Robertson (39’) and Hindolo Mustapha (90+3’).

What it changes

Luton move down from first to second (two league matches played). Luton have scored 27 goals, the second-most of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 14 games, ranked per game). Luton have conceded 21 goals, the 12th-most (shared) of the 24 clubs.

Notts County move down from first to ninth (two league matches played). Notts County have scored 13 goals, the eighth-fewest of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 12 games, ranked per game). Notts County have conceded 14 goals, the ninth-fewest of the 24 clubs.

With four goals it was the highest-scoring match of round 2, across 12 matches. Luton have scored in at least 15 consecutive matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Oliver Cooper (Notts County) 9.0, Callum Marshall (Luton) 5.6 and Kasey Palmer (Luton) 5.1 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Luton or the draw, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 76.4% of the time in the last 90 days (1328 of 1739).

Next up

Luton next host Forest Green on 7 November 2026.

Notts County next travel to Altrincham on 7 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Luton: Luton v Forest Green, Saturday 7 November — the preview. Next for Notts County: Altrincham v Notts County, Saturday 7 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Luton 2–2 Notts County · League One
  • Venue: Kenilworth Road · Luton, Bedfordshire
  • Referee: B. Speedie
  • Model coverage: 19 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 2): Luton 0 · draws 2 · Notts County 0 · 1 goals/game
  • Recent form: Luton 5W 0D 0L · Notts County 2W 3D 0L

Luton 2–2 Notts County (League One): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 19 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 6 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

2.63 / 1.13
Goals
against 1.13 / 0.63 · 4 of the last 5 over 2.75
over 8 matches
6.5 / 3.14
Corners
against 4.38 / 4.71 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 7 matches
6.25 / 4.29
Shots on target
against 4 / 2.29 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 7 matches
1.63 / 2.29
Cards
against 2.25 / 1.71 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 7 matches
3.36 yellows
Referee · B. Speedie
23.82 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 11 matches
19
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 15 August 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 15 August 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameLuton for / againstLineNotts County for / against
Goals scored
2.63 for · 1.13 against n 8
2.75our book
1.13 for · 0.63 against n 8
Corners won
6.5 for · 4.38 against n 8
9.5standard
3.14 for · 4.71 against n 7
Shots
17.63 for · 13.38 against n 8
19.5standard
10 for · 10 against n 7
Shots on target
6.25 for · 4 against n 8
8.5standard
4.29 for · 2.29 against n 7
Fouls committed
9.25 for · 13.88 against n 8
21.5standard
13.86 for · 14.43 against n 7
Cards shown
1.63 for · 2.25 against n 8
3.5standard
2.29 for · 1.71 against n 7

Referee: B. Speedie — 3.36 yellow cards a game, 0.09 red cards, 23.82 fouls over 11 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Luton

Luton Goalkeeper

Luton — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Joshua Keeley290180 min31.5 /9031.5 /9000 /90
Luton — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Luton before kick-off, to 15 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Joshua Keeley n 890
2.65/2

Luton Defensive

Luton — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
G. Johnston290180 min00 /9021 /9042 /90157.5 /9000 /9000 /90
K. Naismith290180 min115.5 /9010.5 /9010.5 /902311.5 /9000 /9000 /90
H. Odoffin290179 min21 /9052.5 /9000 /90115.5 /9021 /9000 /90
I. Jones275150 min21.2 /9010.6 /9000 /9074.2 /9021.2 /9000 /90
B. Benagr24998 min10.9 /9010.9 /9000 /9032.8 /9010.9 /9000 /90
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Luton — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Luton before kick-off, to 15 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
J. Clark n 887.6
0.84/1
0.95/2
—
K. Naismith n 890
0.53/1
1.36/2
L. Ness
Joshua Keeley n 890
00/0
0.11/0
—
H. Odoffin n 889.9
0.64/1
1.86/4
—
N. Wells n 861.4
1.55/2
1.35/2
—
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Luton — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Luton before kick-off, to 15 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
K. Naismith n 890
37/4
J. Clark n 887.6
1.96/4
H. Odoffin n 889.9
1.15/2
N. Wells n 861.4
1.34/1
L. Walsh n 885.3
2.17/5
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Luton Attacking

Luton — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
N. Wells280160 min10.6 /9010.6 /9063.4 /9031.7 /9021.1 /9000 /90
S. Morris12222 min00 /9000 /9014.1 /9014.1 /9000 /9014.1 /90
G. Kodua12121 min14.3 /9000 /9028.6 /9014.3 /9000 /9000 /90
J. Clark290180 min00 /9010.5 /9031.5 /9031.5 /9063 /9042 /90
L. Walsh280159 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9010.6 /9031.7 /90
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Luton — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Luton before kick-off, to 15 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
J. Clark n 887.6
2.27/5
15/3
K. Naismith n 890
0.32/0
0.11/0
Joshua Keeley n 890
00/0
00/0
H. Odoffin n 889.9
0.64/1
0.32/0
N. Wells n 861.4
2.67/4
1.34/2
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Luton — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Luton before kick-off, to 15 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
J. Clark n 887.6
0.43/0
0.11/0
K. Naismith n 890
0.11/0
00/0
Joshua Keeley n 890
00/0
00/0
H. Odoffin n 889.9
0.11/0
00/0
N. Wells n 861.4
0.42/0
0.21/0
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Notts County

Notts County Goalkeeper

Notts County — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
J. Belshaw19090 min11 /9011 /9000 /90
Notts County — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Notts County before kick-off, to 15 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
J. Belshaw n 890
1.85/2

Notts County Defensive

Notts County — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
D. Lipsiuc19090 min22 /9022 /9000 /9088 /9044 /9000 /90
J. Bedeau19090 min00 /9011 /9011 /9011 /9011 /9000 /90
J. Gibbons19090 min11 /9000 /9000 /9022 /9011 /9011 /90
L. Ness19090 min22 /9022 /9033 /9044 /9000 /9000 /90
Nicholas Tsaroulla19090 min22 /9000 /9000 /9033 /9000 /9000 /90
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Notts County — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Notts County before kick-off, to 15 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
L. Ness n 885.3
1.66/4
0.72/2
K. Naismith
Nicholas Tsaroulla n 882.5
1.67/3
1.26/3
—
J. Bedeau n 886
1.36/2
0.73/2
—
J. Belshaw n 890
00/0
0.31/1
—
C. Grant n 850.5
1.13/1
0.94/0
—
Notts County — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Notts County before kick-off, to 15 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
L. Ness n 885.3
3.38/7
Nicholas Tsaroulla n 882.5
1.87/4
J. Bedeau n 886
1.44/4
C. Grant n 850.5
2.77/3

Notts County Attacking

Notts County — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
C. Roberts16767 min00 /9000 /9045.4 /9011.3 /9011.3 /9011.3 /90
L. Smyth16767 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9011.3 /9000 /90
E. Acquah12323 min00 /9000 /9013.9 /9000 /9000 /9000 /90
O. Cooper19090 min00 /9000 /9011 /9000 /9011 /9000 /90
D. Campbell18383 min00 /9000 /9011.1 /9000 /9022.2 /9000 /90
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Notts County — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Notts County before kick-off, to 15 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Nicholas Tsaroulla n 882.5
1.15/2
0.73/2
L. Ness n 885.3
0.32/0
0.11/0
J. Bedeau n 886
0.11/0
00/0
J. Belshaw n 890
00/0
00/0
C. Grant n 850.5
0.72/1
0.42/0
Notts County — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Notts County before kick-off, to 15 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Nicholas Tsaroulla n 882.5
0.32/0
00/0
L. Ness n 885.3
0.11/0
00/0
J. Belshaw n 890
00/0
00/0
J. Bedeau n 886
00/0
00/0
C. Grant n 850.5
0.21/0
0.21/0

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
LutonNotts County
58%Possession42%
1.93Expected goals (xG)0.79
14Shots6
4Shots on target4
6Shots off target0
4Blocked shots2
9Shots inside the box2
8Corners3
1Offsides1
15Fouls18
5Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
2Saves2
418Passes311
79%Pass accuracy71%

Luton Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Joshua Keeley9000000006.3
M. Andersen9000000006.3
G. Johnston90000011Y7.2
K. Naismith90001001Y7.2
L. Walsh90000011Y7.2
J. Richards9000101306.5
K. Palmer90012120Y6.6
I. Jones8000000006
Emilio Lawrence6200002107.3
N. Wells62101100Y7
J. Clark1800110006.3
G. Kodua sub7200200106.3
B. Benagr sub2800001006.6
C. Marshall sub2810212107.9
H. Ashby sub1000000006.3

Notts County Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
J. Belshaw9000000006.2
J. Gibbons9000000206.3
L. Ness9000000206.5
J. Bedeau9000000106.6
J. Evans9000000206.5
D. Lipsiuc8600001206.2
O. Cooper8610112207.6
Nicholas Tsaroulla7301001006.3
C. Roberts7310110107.9
S. Robertson72001101Y6.5
L. Smyth62001103Y6.3
C. Grant sub2800000006.5
H. Mustapha sub18000001Y6.3
I. Samuels-Smith sub1700000106.9
L. Ndlovu sub1700000006.6
M. Baker sub1000000006.6
Maziar Kouhyar sub1000000006.7

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Luton v Notts County — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
LutonWWWWW
Last 5: 5W 0D 0L · 2.8 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
Notts CountyWDWDD
Last 5: 2W 3D 0L · 1.2 scored / 0.4 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 2
Luton 0 · 2 draws · Notts County 0 · 1 goals/game
  • 2018-05-05 Notts County 0–0 Luton
  • 2017-12-09 Luton 1–1 Notts County
League standing · 2026/27
Luton#4 pos24 pts14 pl+6 GD
Notts County#17 pos14 pts12 pl-1 GD
Goals per game
Luton scored1.93
Notts County scored1.08
Luton conceded1.5
Notts County conceded1.17

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Luton v Notts County?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Luton v Notts County was Home or Draw.
What is the head-to-head record between Luton and Notts County?
In their last 2 meetings, Luton won 0, Notts County won 0 and there were 2 draws, averaging 1 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Luton and Notts County?
Recent form — Luton 5W 0D 0L; Notts County 2W 3D 0L.

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