Notts CountyBurton Albion

Notts County v Burton Albion result

Full-time · Notts County 2–1 Burton Albion

League One · · Meadow Lane

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Notts County · Burton Albion

The model’s pre-match pick

Notts County 2–1 Burton Albion — Notts County won this League One match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Away.

Free pick
Home or Away
Best price: 1.30 at William Hill
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.8% of 5059 landed (95% range 76.7–79%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Notts County beat Burton Albion 2–1 at Meadow Lane in League One on Saturday 29 August. Notts County are unbeaten in their last nine matches in all competitions.

The goals

Notts County came from behind: Burton Albion led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — Burton Albion: Finn Delap (22’, assisted by Jack Armer); Notts County: Luka Smyth (78’, assisted by Nicholas Tsaroulla; 84’ pen). Curtis Tilt (83’) was sent off.

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s four key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Luka Smyth’s goal on 84 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Notts County 2.29, Burton Albion 0.11, from 20 shots to 2 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

K. Dowle showed five yellow cards and one red — against 3.0 yellows a game across the last 5 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Notts County: Rory Finneran (36’); Burton Albion: Curtis Tilt (34’), Jack Armer (51’), Sulyman Krubally (52’) and George Evans (65’).

What it changes

Notts County move up from ninth to fourth (three league matches played).

Burton Albion move down from fourth to 10th (three league matches played).

Notts County have scored in five consecutive matches in all competitions. Burton Albion have scored in eight consecutive matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Luka Smyth (Notts County) 11.0, Finn Delap (Burton Albion) 7.3 and Oliver Cooper (Notts County) 6.8 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Notts County or Burton Albion (no draw), a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 77.8% of the time in the last 90 days (3938 of 5059).

Next up

Notts County next travel to Altrincham on 7 November 2026.

Burton Albion next host AFC Rushden & Diamonds on 7 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Notts County: Altrincham v Notts County, Saturday 7 November — the preview. Next for Burton Albion: Burton Albion v AFC Rushden & Diamonds, Saturday 7 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Notts County 2–1 Burton Albion · League One
  • Venue: Meadow Lane · Nottingham, Nottinghamshire
  • Referee: K. Dowle
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Recent form: Notts County 1W 4D 0L · Burton Albion 1W 3D 1L

Notts County 2–1 Burton Albion (League One): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 7 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.25 / 1.13
Goals
against 0.63 / 1 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
3.43 / 3.88
Corners
against 4.86 / 3.63 · 2 of the last 4 over 9.5
over 7 matches
4.29 / 4.38
Shots on target
against 2.57 / 3.25 · 0 of the last 4 over 8.5
over 7 matches
2.57 / 1.25
Cards
against 2.29 / 1.13 · 2 of the last 4 over 3.5
over 7 matches
3 yellows
Referee · K. Dowle
23 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 5 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 22 August 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 22 August 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameNotts County for / againstLineBurton Albion for / against
Goals scored
1.25 for · 0.63 against n 8
2.5our book
1.13 for · 1 against n 8
Corners won
3.43 for · 4.86 against n 7
9.5standard
3.88 for · 3.63 against n 8
Shots
9.57 for · 10 against n 7
19.5standard
13.25 for · 11.88 against n 8
Shots on target
4.29 for · 2.57 against n 7
8.5standard
4.38 for · 3.25 against n 8
Fouls committed
14.71 for · 14.29 against n 7
21.5standard
12.25 for · 12.75 against n 8
Cards shown
2.57 for · 2.29 against n 7
3.5standard
1.25 for · 1.13 against n 8

Referee: K. Dowle — 3 yellow cards a game, 0.2 red cards, 23 fouls over 5 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Notts County

Notts County Goalkeeper

Notts County — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
J. Belshaw290180 min31.5 /9031.5 /9000 /90
Notts County — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Notts County before kick-off, to 22 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
J. Belshaw n 890
1.85/2

Notts County Defensive

Notts County — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
J. Bedeau290180 min10.5 /9021 /9010.5 /9042 /9021 /9000 /90
J. Gibbons290180 min31.5 /9021 /9010.5 /9063 /9021 /9010.5 /90
L. Ness290180 min42 /9031.5 /9031.5 /9094.5 /9021 /9000 /90
D. Lipsiuc288176 min42 /9021 /9010.5 /90147.2 /9073.6 /9000 /90
Nicholas Tsaroulla282163 min21.1 /9021.1 /9000 /9042.2 /9000 /9000 /90
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Notts County — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Notts County before kick-off, to 22 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
L. Ness n 885.3
1.66/4
0.83/2
F. Delap
J. Bedeau n 890
0.96/1
0.84/2
T. Sibbick
J. Belshaw n 890
00/0
0.31/1
—
Nicholas Tsaroulla n 883.5
1.56/3
1.37/3
G. Evans
C. Grant n 844.6
1.84/2
14/0
—
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Notts County — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Notts County before kick-off, to 22 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
L. Ness n 885.3
3.28/7
J. Bedeau n 890
1.55/4
Nicholas Tsaroulla n 883.5
1.66/4
C. Grant n 844.6
2.86/3
S. Robertson n 870.1
1.46/3
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Notts County Attacking

Notts County — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
C. Roberts270140 min10.6 /9000 /9053.2 /9021.3 /9010.6 /9010.6 /90
L. Smyth265129 min00 /9000 /9010.7 /9010.7 /9010.7 /9000 /90
E. Acquah12323 min00 /9000 /9013.9 /9000 /9000 /9000 /90
O. Cooper288176 min10.5 /9000 /9021 /9010.5 /9031.5 /9010.5 /90
J. Evans279157 min00 /9000 /9010.6 /9000 /9000 /9000 /90
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Notts County — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Notts County before kick-off, to 22 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
L. Ness n 885.3
0.32/0
0.11/0
J. Bedeau n 890
0.11/0
00/0
J. Belshaw n 890
00/0
00/0
Nicholas Tsaroulla n 883.5
0.94/2
0.73/2
C. Grant n 844.6
0.82/1
0.52/0
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Notts County — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Notts County before kick-off, to 22 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
L. Ness n 885.3
0.11/0
00/0
J. Belshaw n 890
00/0
00/0
J. Bedeau n 890
00/0
00/0
Nicholas Tsaroulla n 883.5
0.32/0
0.11/0
C. Grant n 844.6
0.31/0
0.31/0
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Burton Albion

Burton Albion Goalkeeper

Burton Albion — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
C. Addai390270 min93 /9041.3 /9000 /90
Burton Albion — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Burton Albion before kick-off, to 22 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
C. Addai n 390
33/1

Burton Albion Defensive

Burton Albion — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
F. Delap390270 min82.7 /9082.7 /9051.7 /90206.7 /9072.3 /9010.3 /90
T. Sibbick390270 min82.7 /9020.7 /9020.7 /90134.3 /9010.3 /9000 /90
C. Tilt383248 min62.2 /9020.7 /9062.2 /90207.3 /9020.7 /9010.4 /90
Emeka Adeile12020 min29 /9000 /9000 /9029 /9000 /9000 /90
G. Evans390270 min41.3 /9031 /9010.3 /90103.3 /9031 /9000 /90
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Burton Albion — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Burton Albion before kick-off, to 22 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
F. Delap n 884.4
26/4
0.42/1
L. Ness
K. Lofthouse n 890
1.98/5
15/3
—
K. Chauke n 878.1
1.67/3
16/1
—
G. Evans n 878.9
16/1
0.95/1
Nicholas Tsaroulla
T. Sibbick n 890
0.65/0
0.54/0
J. Bedeau
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Burton Albion — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Burton Albion before kick-off, to 22 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
K. Chauke n 878.1
2.47/5
J. Armer n 886.8
2.37/5
T. Sibbick n 890
2.18/4
K. Lofthouse n 890
1.67/3
F. Delap n 884.4
1.56/3
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Burton Albion Attacking

Burton Albion — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
K. Chauke390270 min10.3 /9000 /9020.7 /9010.3 /9031 /9010.3 /90
M. Dennis383250 min10.4 /9000 /9051.8 /9020.7 /9010.4 /9031.1 /90
C. Webster281162 min00 /9000 /9084.4 /9042.2 /9031.7 /9010.6 /90
Zac Scutt18989 min11 /9000 /9044 /9022 /9022 /9000 /90
G. Evans390270 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9062 /9000 /90
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Burton Albion — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Burton Albion before kick-off, to 22 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
K. Lofthouse n 890
0.84/1
0.31/1
J. Armer n 886.8
0.54/0
0.43/0
F. Delap n 884.4
0.42/1
0.11/0
K. Chauke n 878.1
0.43/0
0.11/0
T. Sibbick n 890
0.11/0
00/0
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Burton Albion — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Burton Albion before kick-off, to 22 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
K. Lofthouse n 890
0.11/0
0.11/0
G. Evans n 878.9
0.11/0
0.11/0
T. Sibbick n 890
00/0
0.11/0
J. Armer n 886.8
0.11/0
00/0
K. Chauke n 878.1
0.11/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Notts CountyBurton Albion
60%Possession40%
2.29Expected goals (xG)0.11
20Shots2
8Shots on target1
9Shots off target0
3Blocked shots1
16Shots inside the box1
7Corners1
1Offsides2
13Fouls22
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards1
0Saves6
487Passes326
80%Pass accuracy69%

Notts County Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
J. Bedeau9000000006.3
O. Cooper9000111607.3
J. Gibbons9000100206.3
H. Mustapha9000311106.3
L. Ness9000102006.7
J. Belshaw9000000005.9
Rory Finneran90002013Y7.2
Nicholas Tsaroulla8901113208.2
C. Roberts6600113007.2
D. Lipsiuc6600210106.5
J. Evans4500000106.9
L. Smyth sub4520530008.6
C. Grant sub2400000006.9
Maziar Kouhyar sub2400002006.6
I. Samuels-Smith sub10000000–

Burton Albion Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
J. Armer90010012Y6.9
K. Chauke9000000106.9
F. Delap9010110207.5
K. Lofthouse9000000106.5
T. Sibbick9000000206.7
C. Addai9000000007.7
C. Webster9000001106.3
G. Evans87000001Y6.2
C. Tilt83000001RY5.7
Sulyman Krubally62000000Y6.5
Zac Scutt6200000006.5
W. Collar sub2800000006.3
T. Shade sub2800000006.3
K. Adom sub800000006.3

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Notts County v Burton Albion — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Notts CountyDWDDD
Last 5: 1W 4D 0L · 1.4 scored / 0.8 conceded per game
Burton AlbionDDLDW
Last 5: 1W 3D 1L · 1.4 scored / 1.4 conceded per game
League standing · 2026/27
Notts County#17 pos14 pts12 pl-1 GD
Burton Albion#15 pos17 pts14 pl-3 GD
Goals per game
Notts County scored1.08
Burton Albion scored1.29
Notts County conceded1.17
Burton Albion conceded1.5

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Notts County v Burton Albion?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Notts County v Burton Albion was Home or Away (best price 1.30 at William Hill).
What is the recent form of Notts County and Burton Albion?
Recent form — Notts County 1W 4D 0L; Burton Albion 1W 3D 1L.

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