RotherhamLuton

Rotherham v Luton result

Full-time · Rotherham 0–2 Luton

League One ·

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Rotherham · Luton · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Rotherham 0–2 Luton — Luton won this League One match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 68.5% of 505 landed (95% range 64.3–72.4%); it had given them 75.9% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Luton won 2–0 at Rotherham in League One on Tuesday 21 April. Luton are unbeaten in their last nine matches in all competitions.

The goals

Luton led 2–0 at half-time. The goals — Luton: Kasey Palmer (8’, assisted by Shayden Morris; 44’, assisted by Shayden Morris).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s two key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Kasey Palmer’s goal on 8 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) had little between the sides: Rotherham 0.00, Luton 0.00, from 15 shots to 14 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

S. Mulhall showed three yellow cards — against 4.8 yellows a game across the last 6 matches refereed (all competitions). The bookings — Rotherham: James Clarke (43’); Luton: Hakeem Odoffin (88’) and Joshua Keeley (90+1’).

What it changes

Rotherham stay 22nd after this result (44 league matches played).

Luton move up from eighth to seventh (44 league matches played).

Luton have scored in 12 consecutive matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Kasey Palmer (Luton) 9.4, Shayden Morris (Luton) 9.1 and Jamal Baptiste (Rotherham) 8.6 led the match.

Head-to-head

Luton are unbeaten in the last five meetings with Rotherham, every meeting checked.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, did not land — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

Rotherham next host Crawley Town on 14 November 2026.

Luton next host Cambridge United on 14 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Rotherham: Rotherham v Crawley Town, Saturday 14 November — the preview. Next for Luton: Luton v Cambridge United, Saturday 14 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Rotherham 0–2 Luton · League One
  • Referee: S. Mulhall
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 5): Rotherham 0 · draws 3 · Luton 2 · 1 goals/game
  • Recent form: Rotherham 1W 1D 3L · Luton 3W 2D 0L

Rotherham 0–2 Luton (League One): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

0.63 / 2
Goals
against 2.13 / 1.13 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
4.5 / 6.38
Corners
against 5.38 / 4.5 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
2.75 / 5.5
Shots on target
against 5.75 / 3.5 · 1 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.75 / 1.63
Cards
against 1.75 / 2 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 18 April 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 18 April 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameRotherham for / againstLineLuton for / against
Goals scored
0.63 for · 2.13 against n 8
2.5standard
2 for · 1.13 against n 8
Corners won
4.5 for · 5.38 against n 8
9.5standard
6.38 for · 4.5 against n 8
Shots
9 for · 12.5 against n 8
19.5standard
16.75 for · 11.25 against n 8
Shots on target
2.75 for · 5.75 against n 8
8.5standard
5.5 for · 3.5 against n 8
Fouls committed
11.38 for · 12.63 against n 8
21.5standard
10.5 for · 13.5 against n 8
Cards shown
1.75 for · 1.75 against n 8
3.5standard
1.63 for · 2 against n 8

Referee: S. Mulhall.

Rotherham

Rotherham Defensive

Rotherham — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Rotherham before kick-off, to 18 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
J. Rafferty n 875.6
1.36/2
1.24/2
K. Naismith
R. James n 888.3
0.32/0
0.11/0
—
A. Martha n 858.6
1.54/2
0.62/1
—
J. Baptiste n 878.5
1.15/2
0.43/0
N. Lonwijk
C. Dawson n 890
0.11/0
0.32/0
—
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Rotherham — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Rotherham before kick-off, to 18 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
J. Rafferty n 875.6
2.47/5
R. James n 888.3
1.57/3
A. Martha n 858.6
1.34/2
J. Baptiste n 878.5
1.15/2
C. Dawson n 890
00/0
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Rotherham Attacking

Rotherham — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Rotherham before kick-off, to 18 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
J. Rafferty n 875.6
0.11/0
00/0
R. James n 888.3
0.42/1
0.31/1
A. Martha n 858.6
0.42/0
00/0
J. Baptiste n 878.5
0.11/0
00/0
C. Dawson n 890
00/0
00/0
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Rotherham — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Rotherham before kick-off, to 18 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
J. Rafferty n 875.6
00/0
00/0
R. James n 888.3
00/0
00/0
A. Martha n 858.6
00/0
0.21/0
J. Baptiste n 878.5
00/0
00/0
C. Dawson n 890
00/0
00/0
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Luton

Luton Defensive

Luton — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Luton before kick-off, to 18 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Joshua Keeley n 890
0.11/0
0.32/0
—
N. Lonwijk n 890
0.85/1
0.54/0
J. Baptiste
J. Clark n 887.6
0.53/1
0.94/2
—
K. Naismith n 890
0.63/1
1.35/2
J. Rafferty
G. Kodua n 854.5
0.84/0
1.74/2
—
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Luton — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Luton before kick-off, to 18 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Joshua Keeley n 890
00/0
N. Lonwijk n 890
1.86/5
J. Clark n 887.6
1.97/4
K. Naismith n 890
2.57/5
G. Kodua n 854.5
1.96/3
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Luton Attacking

Luton — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Luton before kick-off, to 18 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Joshua Keeley n 890
00/0
00/0
N. Lonwijk n 890
0.42/1
0.32/0
J. Clark n 887.6
1.96/4
0.52/2
K. Naismith n 890
16/2
0.54/0
G. Kodua n 854.5
15/0
0.84/0
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Luton — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Luton before kick-off, to 18 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Joshua Keeley n 890
00/0
00/0
N. Lonwijk n 890
0.11/0
00/0
J. Clark n 887.6
0.32/0
0.32/0
K. Naismith n 890
0.32/0
0.11/0
G. Kodua n 854.5
00/0
0.21/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
RotherhamLuton
36%Possession64%
15Shots14
3Shots on target4
5Shots off target7
7Blocked shots3
8Shots inside the box9
2Corners6
0Offsides2
13Fouls7
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
2Saves3
320Passes592
67%Pass accuracy85%

Rotherham Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
T. Cann9000000006.7
J. Rafferty9000001107
E. Adegboyega9000001206.6
Z. Jules9000000206.5
J. Baptiste9000113607.5
Daniel Gore9000101206.9
H. Gray9000000406.7
S. Nombe9000201106
A. Martha6200000106.3
James Clarke62000012Y6.3
K. Flavell4500000206.3
D. Yearwood sub4500002106.7
D. Hall sub2800211106.9
J. Holmes sub2800211006.6

Luton Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Joshua Keeley90000000Y7
N. Lonwijk9000000507.6
H. Odoffin90000001Y7.3
K. Naismith9000000007.6
J. Johnson9000000207.3
K. Palmer9020523008.5
Emilio Lawrence8600310006.5
L. Walsh7400101307.3
N. Wells7300101006.3
D. van den Berg6100112407
S. Morris6102004207.3
J. Richards sub2900000106.9
G. Kodua sub2900000106.2
Ali Al Hamadi sub1700000006.2
G. Saville sub1600000006.9
S. Sandal sub900001106.9

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Rotherham v Luton — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
RotherhamDLLLW
Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 0.6 scored / 1.4 conceded per game
LutonDWWWD
Last 5: 3W 2D 0L · 2 scored / 1 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 5
Rotherham 0 · 3 draws · Luton 2 · 1 goals/game
  • 2025-11-15 Luton 0–0 Rotherham
  • 2023-04-15 Rotherham 0–2 Luton
  • 2022-11-12 Luton 1–1 Rotherham
  • 2021-05-04 Luton 0–0 Rotherham
  • 2020-11-04 Rotherham 0–1 Luton
League standing · 2025/26
Rotherham#23 pos41 pts46 pl-30 GD
Luton#7 pos74 pts46 pl+12 GD
Goals per game
Rotherham scored0.89
Luton scored1.48
Rotherham conceded1.54
Luton conceded1.22

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Rotherham v Luton?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Rotherham v Luton was Over 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Rotherham and Luton?
In their last 5 meetings, Rotherham won 0, Luton won 2 and there were 3 draws, averaging 1 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Rotherham and Luton?
Recent form — Rotherham 1W 1D 3L; Luton 3W 2D 0L.

Today’s Boards

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.

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