Bristol Rovers v Rotherham result

Full-time · Bristol Rovers 1–0 Rotherham

League Two · Sat, 05 Sep 2026 15:00 BST · Memorial Stadium

Updated 6 Nov 2026, 07:34 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Bristol Rovers · Rotherham · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Bristol Rovers 1–0 Rotherham — Bristol Rovers won this League Two match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick

Over 2.5 goals

Best price: 1.67 at Unibet

What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 67.4% of 543 landed (95% range 63.4–71.2%); it had given them 75.9% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

Match report, in numbers

The result

Bristol Rovers beat Rotherham 1–0 at Memorial Stadium in League Two on Saturday 5 September. It is Bristol Rovers’s first win over Rotherham since 28 September 2019, after three meetings without one (the 6 prior meetings TACTIX holds).

The goals

Bristol Rovers led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — Bristol Rovers: Tommy Leigh (32’).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s two key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Tommy Leigh’s goal on 32 minutes.

Discipline

D. Drysdale showed four yellow cards — against 3.6 yellows a game across the last 9 matches refereed (this competition).

What it changes

Bristol Rovers stay first after this result (five league matches played). Bristol Rovers have scored 17 goals, the 11th-fewest (shared) of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 14 games, ranked per game). Bristol Rovers have conceded 23 goals, the fifth-most of the 24 clubs.

Rotherham move down from 13th to 14th (five league matches played). Rotherham have scored 18 goals, the 12th-most (shared) of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 14 games, ranked per game). Rotherham have conceded 25 goals, the third-most (shared) of the 24 clubs.

Bristol Rovers have won their last four matches in all competitions. Bristol Rovers have scored in five consecutive matches in all competitions. Bristol Rovers have kept a clean sheet in their last three matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Riley-Jay Harbottle (Bristol Rovers) 6.6, Tommy Leigh (Bristol Rovers) 6.5 and Clinton Mola (Bristol Rovers) 4.8 led the match.

Head-to-head

Rotherham are unbeaten in the last three meetings with Bristol Rovers.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, did not land — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

Bristol Rovers next host Cambridge United on 6 November 2026.

Rotherham next travel to Bromley on 7 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Bristol Rovers: Bristol Rovers v Cambridge United, Friday 6 November — the preview. Next for Rotherham: Bromley v Rotherham, Saturday 7 November — the preview.

The Numbers

Result: Bristol Rovers 1–0 Rotherham · League Two
Venue: Memorial Stadium · Bristol
Referee: D. Drysdale
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): Bristol Rovers 2 · draws 1 · Rotherham 3 · 2.33 goals/game
Recent form: Bristol Rovers 3W 0D 2L · Rotherham 1W 2D 2L

Bristol Rovers 1–0 Rotherham (League Two): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 6 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

2.25 / 1.25

Goals

against 1.13 / 2 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.75

over 8 matches

4 / 2.75

Corners

against 4.25 / 5 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

5.13 / 3.13

Shots on target

against 2.88 / 5.13 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

2.63 / 1.88

Cards

against 2.25 / 1.63 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

3.56 yellows

Referee · D. Drysdale

21.78 fouls a game

Home and away split · Pro

over 9 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 1 September 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 1 September 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Bristol Rovers for / against	Line	Rotherham for / against
Goals scored	2.25 for · 1.13 against n 8 Last 5	2.75our book	1.25 for · 2 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	4 for · 4.25 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	2.75 for · 5 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	17.63 for · 11 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	12.5 for · 12.5 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	5.13 for · 2.88 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	3.13 for · 5.13 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	14.25 for · 8.75 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	12.25 for · 9.75 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	2.63 for · 2.25 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	1.88 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5

Referee: D. Drysdale — 3.56 yellow cards a game, 0.44 red cards, 21.78 fouls over 9 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Bristol Rovers

Bristol Rovers Goalkeeper

Bristol Rovers — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Brad Young	5	90450 min	51 /90	71.4 /90	00 /90

Bristol Rovers — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bristol Rovers before kick-off, to 1 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Brad Young n 8	90	1.5 4/1

Bristol Rovers Defensive

Bristol Rovers — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
R. Harbottle	5	90450 min	102 /90	61.2 /90	61.2 /90	387.6 /90	71.4 /90	10.2 /90
K. Balmer	5	81403 min	81.8 /90	20.4 /90	10.2 /90	255.6 /90	20.4 /90	10.2 /90
B. Purrington	4	90360 min	112.8 /90	30.8 /90	00 /90	297.3 /90	30.8 /90	00 /90
T. James	3	88265 min	20.7 /90	31 /90	31 /90	93.1 /90	10.3 /90	20.7 /90
C. Kelly	1	4747 min	23.8 /90	00 /90	11.9 /90	47.7 /90	23.8 /90	00 /90
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Bristol Rovers — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bristol Rovers before kick-off, to 1 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
R. Harbottle n 8	90	1.3 6/3	0.6 3/2	Sonny Aljofree
Brad Young n 8	90	0 0/0	0.3 2/0	—
S. Forde n 8	87.1	2.6 7/6	1.2 6/2	—
C. Mola n 8	82.8	2.2 8/4	0.3 2/0	D. Hall
K. Balmer n 8	84.1	1.1 5/2	1.1 6/2	E. Otoo
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Bristol Rovers — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bristol Rovers before kick-off, to 1 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
R. Harbottle n 8	90	2.3 7/4
S. Forde n 8	87.1	1.7 6/5
C. Mola n 8	82.8	2.7 8/7
K. Balmer n 8	84.1	1.7 6/4
F. Cavegn n 8	65.5	0.3 2/0
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Bristol Rovers Attacking

Bristol Rovers — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
F. Cavegn	5	76380 min	20.5 /90	10.2 /90	112.6 /90	71.7 /90	61.4 /90	71.7 /90
J. Quigley	2	69138 min	00 /90	00 /90	42.6 /90	10.7 /90	10.7 /90	00 /90
E. Harrison	1	2424 min	13.8 /90	00 /90	27.5 /90	27.5 /90	00 /90	00 /90
S. Forde	5	88439 min	00 /90	00 /90	81.6 /90	10.2 /90	112.3 /90	61.2 /90
C. Mola	5	83415 min	10.2 /90	00 /90	51.1 /90	20.4 /90	20.4 /90	00 /90
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Bristol Rovers — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bristol Rovers before kick-off, to 1 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
R. Harbottle n 8	90	0.4 2/1	0.1 1/0
Brad Young n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
S. Forde n 8	87.1	1.7 7/3	0.5 3/1
C. Mola n 8	82.8	0.7 4/1	0.3 2/0
K. Balmer n 8	84.1	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
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Bristol Rovers — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bristol Rovers before kick-off, to 1 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Brad Young n 8	90	0 0/0	0.3 2/0
R. Harbottle n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
S. Forde n 8	87.1	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
C. Mola n 8	82.8	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
K. Balmer n 8	84.1	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
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Rotherham

Rotherham Goalkeeper

Rotherham — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
T. Cann	5	91454 min	142.8 /90	102 /90	00 /90

Rotherham — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Rotherham before kick-off, to 1 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
T. Cann n 8	90.5	3 7/3

Rotherham Defensive

Rotherham — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
E. Otoo	5	91454 min	51 /90	10.2 /90	20.4 /90	214.2 /90	51 /90	10.2 /90
D. Hall	5	87436 min	132.7 /90	61.2 /90	10.2 /90	275.6 /90	51 /90	00 /90
Sonny Aljofree	5	87436 min	71.4 /90	102.1 /90	40.8 /90	255.2 /90	61.2 /90	10.2 /90
J. Rafferty	4	35141 min	10.6 /90	10.6 /90	00 /90	53.2 /90	00 /90	00 /90
L. Agbaire	2	79157 min	10.6 /90	21.1 /90	42.3 /90	105.7 /90	31.7 /90	00 /90
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Rotherham — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Rotherham before kick-off, to 1 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
E. Otoo n 5	90.8	1 3/2	0 0/0	K. Balmer
T. Cann n 8	90.5	0 0/0	0.4 3/0	—
Sonny Aljofree n 5	87.2	1.2 2/2	0.8 3/1	R. Harbottle
D. Hall n 8	73.4	1.2 5/2	0.6 3/1	C. Mola
K. Spence n 8	82.1	1.1 5/2	1 4/1	—
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Rotherham — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Rotherham before kick-off, to 1 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
E. Otoo n 5	90.8	1 3/2
D. Hall n 8	73.4	2.8 8/5
Sonny Aljofree n 5	87.2	1.4 5/1
K. Spence n 8	82.1	2.1 7/7
Fábio Tavares n 5	80.6	0.4 1/1
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Rotherham Attacking

Rotherham — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Fábio Tavares	5	81403 min	20.4 /90	10.2 /90	81.8 /90	40.9 /90	81.8 /90	30.7 /90
P. Mullin	5	64321 min	10.3 /90	00 /90	92.5 /90	41.1 /90	30.8 /90	20.6 /90
T. Bradshaw	4	35139 min	10.6 /90	00 /90	42.6 /90	31.9 /90	00 /90	00 /90
A. Nemane	2	2039 min	12.3 /90	00 /90	12.3 /90	12.3 /90	00 /90	00 /90
K. Spence	5	86432 min	00 /90	10.2 /90	51 /90	10.2 /90	71.5 /90	30.6 /90
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Rotherham — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Rotherham before kick-off, to 1 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
E. Otoo n 5	90.8	0.8 2/2	0.2 1/0
T. Cann n 8	90.5	0 0/0	0 0/0
D. Hall n 8	73.4	0.5 2/1	0.3 2/0
Sonny Aljofree n 5	87.2	0 0/0	0 0/0
K. Spence n 8	82.1	0.8 5/1	0.1 1/0
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Rotherham — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Rotherham before kick-off, to 1 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
E. Otoo n 5	90.8	0.2 1/0	0.2 1/0
T. Cann n 8	90.5	0 0/0	0 0/0
Sonny Aljofree n 5	87.2	0 0/0	0 0/0
D. Hall n 8	73.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
K. Spence n 8	82.1	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Bristol Rovers		Rotherham
44%	Possession	56%
12	Shots	7
4	Shots on target	2
4	Shots off target	3
4	Blocked shots	2
8	Shots inside the box	6
10	Corners	4
4	Offsides	1
9	Fouls	10
1	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
2	Saves	3
290	Passes	367

Bristol Rovers Player Stats

Player	Min	G	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
B. Purrington	90	0	1	0	1	1	0	6.6
K. Balmer	90	0	1	1	0	2	0	7.4
R. Harbottle	90	0	1	0	0	6	0	7.5
T. James	90	0	0	0	2	1	0	7.2
C. Mola	90	0	1	0	1	3	Y	6.4
Brad Young	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.9
R. Smallwood	90	0	0	0	0	2	0	6.6
S. Forde	86	0	1	0	0	2	0	6.7
B. Kamwa	69	0	1	1	0	0	0	6.5
F. Cavegn	59	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.4
T. Leigh	45	1	3	1	2	0	0	8.2
E. Harrison	45	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.9
J. Aitchison	31	0	1	1	2	0	0	7.2
R. Russell-Denny	21	0	0	0	1	0	0	7.1
P. Sanyaolu	4	0	2	0	0	0	0	7

Rotherham Player Stats

Player	Min	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
E. Otoo	90	1	0	2	2	0	5.7
Sonny Aljofree	90	0	0	1	0	0	6.4
J. Austerfield	90	0	0	1	3	Y	5.7
D. Hall	90	0	0	0	3	0	6.2
T. Cann	90	0	0	0	0	0	6.9
Fábio Tavares	90	2	1	0	0	0	6.7
J. Buyabu	79	1	0	0	0	0	6.3
E. Adegboyega	78	1	0	0	1	0	5.9
Brandon Ashley Cover	61	1	1	0	0	0	6.4
Jayce Fitzgerald	61	0	0	1	1	Y	6.3
T. Bradshaw	51	0	0	0	0	0	6.1
George Sebine	39	0	0	0	0	0	6
O. Ashley	29	0	0	0	1	0	6.1
K. Ngwenya	29	0	0	0	0	Y	5.8
P. Mullin	12	1	0	0	0	0	6.5
A. Nemane	11	0	0	1	0	0	6.4

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Bristol Rovers v Rotherham — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

Bristol RoversLLWWW

Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · 2.2 scored / 1.4 conceded per game

RotherhamLLDWD

Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · 1.4 scored / 2 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Bristol Rovers 2 · 1 draw · Rotherham 3 · 2.33 goals/game

2025-03-01 Bristol Rovers 2–3 Rotherham
2024-08-17 Rotherham 0–0 Bristol Rovers
2020-01-18 Rotherham 3–0 Bristol Rovers
2019-09-28 Bristol Rovers 1–0 Rotherham
2018-04-21 Rotherham 2–0 Bristol Rovers
2017-12-02 Bristol Rovers 2–1 Rotherham

League standing · 2026/27

Bristol Rovers#17 pos16 pts14 pl-6 GD

Rotherham#22 pos12 pts14 pl-7 GD

Goals per game

Bristol Rovers scored1.21

Rotherham scored1.29

Bristol Rovers conceded1.64

Rotherham conceded1.79

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Bristol Rovers v Rotherham?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Bristol Rovers v Rotherham was Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.67 at Unibet).
What is the head-to-head record between Bristol Rovers and Rotherham?: In their last 6 meetings, Bristol Rovers won 2, Rotherham won 3 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2.33 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Bristol Rovers and Rotherham?: Recent form — Bristol Rovers 3W 0D 2L; Rotherham 1W 2D 2L.

Today’s Boards

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 6 Nov 2026, 07:34 UK. How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.