Lille v Le Havre result

Full-time · Lille 1–0 Le Havre

Ligue 1 · Sat, 10 Oct 2026 16:15 BST · Stade Pierre-Mauroy

Updated 24 Oct 2026, 04:30 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Lille · Le Havre · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Lille 1–0 Le Havre — Lille won this Ligue 1 match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Away.

Free pick

Home or Away

Best price: 1.20 at Betano

What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.9% of 5118 landed (95% range 76.7–79%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →

How often calls like this land: when the model rated home or away, not the draw (double chance) between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 1,975 of 2,641 times (74.8%), against an average rating of 73.4%. How we measure →

Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said Lille: 1.32 to 0.85 in expected goals, from 5 shots to 17, ahead on xG from the 44th minute (per-shot expected goals for this match).

The result

Lille beat Le Havre 1–0 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Ligue 1 on Saturday 10 October. Lille have scored in seven consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

Lille led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — Lille: Dilane Bakwa (5’, assisted by T. Nianzou). Ayumu Seko (61’) was sent off.

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s two key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Dilane Bakwa’s goal on 5 minutes.

Discipline

Bastien Dechepy, France showed four yellow cards and one red — against 4.0 yellows a game across the last 5 matches refereed (all competitions). The bookings — Lille: Maurits Kjærgaard (85’) and M. Goffi (90+2’); Le Havre: Rassoul Ndiaye (63’) and D. Ouziad (76’).

What it changes

Lille move up from fourth to first (six league matches played). Lille have scored nine goals, the ninth-most of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 6 games, ranked per game). Lille have conceded four goals, the third-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs.

Le Havre move down from 17th to 18th (six league matches played). Le Havre have scored four goals, the second-fewest of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 6 games, ranked per game). Le Havre have conceded eight goals, the eighth-fewest of the 18 clubs.

Le Havre are winless in their last six matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Dilane Bakwa (Lille) 9.2, Mouhamed Ndiaye (Le Havre) 6.0 and Simon Ebonog (Le Havre) 5.8 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Lille or Le Havre (no draw), a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 77.9% of the time in the last 90 days (3985 of 5118).

Next up

Lille next travel to Rennes on 8 November 2026.

Le Havre next host Lorient on 8 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Lille: Rennes v Lille, Sunday 8 November — the preview. Next for Le Havre: Le Havre v Lorient, Sunday 8 November — the preview.

The Numbers

Result: Lille 1–0 Le Havre · Ligue 1
Venue: Stade Pierre-Mauroy · Lille
Referee: Bastien Dechepy, France
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): Lille 4 · draws 1 · Le Havre 1 · 2.33 goals/game
Recent form: Lille 2W 1D 2L · Le Havre 0W 2D 3L

Lille 1–0 Le Havre (Ligue 1): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 24 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.38 / 0.88

Goals

against 1.13 / 1.13 · 2 of the last 5 over 3

over 8 matches

3.13 / 4.63

Corners

against 4.88 / 5.63 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

4.88 / 4.13

Shots on target

against 4.13 / 5.25 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

1.75 / 2.13

Cards

against 1.63 / 1.63 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 20 September 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 20 September 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Lille for / against	Line	Le Havre for / against
Goals scored	1.38 for · 1.13 against n 8 Last 5	3our book	0.88 for · 1.13 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	3.13 for · 4.88 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	4.63 for · 5.63 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	11.13 for · 14.25 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	12.13 for · 14.25 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	4.88 for · 4.13 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	4.13 for · 5.25 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	10.38 for · 14 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	15 for · 13.63 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	1.75 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	2.13 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5

Referee: Bastien Dechepy, France.

Lille

Lille Goalkeeper

Lille — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
B. Özer	6	90540 min	193.2 /90	71.2 /90	00 /90

Lille — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lille before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
B. Özer n 8	90	3 7/3

Lille Defensive

Lille — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Alexsandro Ribeiro	6	90540 min	101.7 /90	30.5 /90	71.2 /90	315.2 /90	40.7 /90	00 /90
N. Ngoy	6	90540 min	50.8 /90	71.2 /90	40.7 /90	193.2 /90	61 /90	00 /90
Tiago Santos	6	90540 min	132.2 /90	50.8 /90	00 /90	376.2 /90	71.2 /90	00 /90
R. Perraud	6	80479 min	91.7 /90	40.8 /90	30.6 /90	193.6 /90	50.9 /90	20.4 /90
C. Verdonk	1	4545 min	36 /90	00 /90	00 /90	36 /90	12 /90	00 /90
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Lille — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lille before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Tiago Santos n 8	84.9	1.5 5/3	2.3 8/4	A. Seko
N. Ngoy n 8	90	0.9 5/2	0.8 5/1	—
Alexsandro Ribeiro n 8	87.9	0.9 5/1	0.9 5/2	A. Seko
B. Özer n 8	90	0 0/0	0.4 3/0	—
R. Perraud n 8	76.6	0.9 5/1	1 5/2	A. Seko
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Lille — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lille before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Tiago Santos n 8	84.9	2 6/5
Alexsandro Ribeiro n 8	87.9	1.8 6/6
N. Ngoy n 8	90	0.9 5/2
R. Perraud n 8	76.6	1.9 7/6
N. Bentaleb n 8	69.1	1.5 7/2
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Lille Attacking

Lille — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
O. Giroud	5	51255 min	10.4 /90	20.7 /90	41.4 /90	20.7 /90	41.4 /90	10.4 /90
D. Bakwa	5	40202 min	10.4 /90	10.4 /90	20.9 /90	10.4 /90	52.2 /90	20.9 /90
A. Ueda	4	68271 min	31 /90	00 /90	103.3 /90	82.7 /90	20.7 /90	10.3 /90
G. Perrin	4	34136 min	00 /90	10.7 /90	00 /90	00 /90	10.7 /90	10.7 /90
O. Sahraoui	3	3398 min	00 /90	00 /90	10.9 /90	10.9 /90	21.8 /90	21.8 /90
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Lille — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lille before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Tiago Santos n 8	84.9	1.6 5/5	0.8 4/2
Alexsandro Ribeiro n 8	87.9	1.2 4/3	0.1 1/0
N. Ngoy n 8	90	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
B. Özer n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
R. Perraud n 8	76.6	0.3 2/0	0 0/0
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Lille — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lille before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Tiago Santos n 8	84.9	0.3 2/0	0 0/0
Alexsandro Ribeiro n 8	87.9	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
B. Özer n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
N. Ngoy n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
R. Perraud n 8	76.6	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Le Havre

Le Havre Goalkeeper

Le Havre — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
L. Mpasi	3	90269 min	196.4 /90	41.3 /90	00 /90
G. Gallon	2	90180 min	31.5 /90	31.5 /90	00 /90

Le Havre — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Le Havre before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
L. Mpasi n 7	83.4	5.2 7/5

Le Havre Defensive

Le Havre — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
A. Seko	5	90450 min	51 /90	81.6 /90	30.6 /90	142.8 /90	71.4 /90	10.2 /90
A. Touba	4	90360 min	92.3 /90	133.3 /90	20.5 /90	184.5 /90	51.3 /90	10.3 /90
V. Sasso	2	80160 min	63.4 /90	10.6 /90	00 /90	105.6 /90	21.1 /90	10.6 /90
F. Doucouré	2	4895 min	10.9 /90	43.8 /90	00 /90	21.9 /90	32.8 /90	21.9 /90
A. Richardson	5	88442 min	102 /90	81.6 /90	20.4 /90	295.9 /90	81.6 /90	10.2 /90
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Le Havre — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Le Havre before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
A. Seko n 8	90	1.3 7/3	0.5 3/1	R. Perraud
A. Richardson n 8	72.5	2 6/4	1.7 7/3	—
S. Ebonog n 8	69.9	2.1 7/4	2.1 5/4	—
M. Samatta n 8	87	1 5/2	1.2 5/3	—
J. Maja n 5	53.8	1.7 4/1	1.3 2/2	—
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Le Havre — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Le Havre before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
A. Seko n 8	90	0.8 5/1
A. Richardson n 8	72.5	1.6 4/3
S. Ebonog n 8	69.9	2.6 7/5
M. Samatta n 8	87	0.8 3/2
J. Maja n 5	53.8	0 0/0
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Le Havre Attacking

Le Havre — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
M. Samatta	5	86428 min	20.4 /90	00 /90	153.2 /90	91.9 /90	20.4 /90	20.4 /90
J. Maja	5	54269 min	10.3 /90	00 /90	51.7 /90	31 /90	62 /90	20.7 /90
S. Nakamura	4	37149 min	00 /90	10.6 /90	42.4 /90	21.2 /90	53 /90	10.6 /90
R. Ndiaye	3	75225 min	00 /90	00 /90	20.8 /90	10.4 /90	62.4 /90	20.8 /90
R. Fofana	3	41124 min	10.7 /90	00 /90	42.9 /90	32.2 /90	00 /90	21.5 /90
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Le Havre — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Le Havre before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
A. Seko n 8	90	0.4 3/0	0 0/0
A. Richardson n 8	72.5	1.9 8/4	0.9 6/0
S. Ebonog n 8	69.9	0.5 3/0	0.3 2/0
M. Samatta n 8	87	2.3 7/4	1.4 7/3
J. Maja n 5	53.8	1.7 3/1	1 2/1
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Le Havre — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Le Havre before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
A. Seko n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
A. Richardson n 8	72.5	0.2 1/0	0 0/0
S. Ebonog n 8	69.9	0 0/0	0 0/0
M. Samatta n 8	87	0.3 2/0	0 0/0
J. Maja n 5	53.8	0.3 1/0	0 0/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Lille		Le Havre
47%	Possession	53%
1.26	Expected goals (xG)	1.28
5	Shots	17
1	Shots on target	2
4	Shots off target	10
0	Blocked shots	5
3	Shots inside the box	9
4	Corners	5
4	Offsides	1
17	Fouls	12
2	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	1
2	Saves	0
408	Passes	448
84%	Pass accuracy	84%

Lille Player Stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Rating
M. Kjærgaard	90	0	0	1	0	0	0	6.5
B. Özer	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	7.2
T. Nianzou	90	0	1	1	0	1	0	6.9
Alexsandro Ribeiro	90	0	0	0	0	0	1	7.7
N. Bentaleb	90	0	0	1	0	0	0	6.6
D. Bakwa	90	1	0	2	1	1	6	7.7
R. Perraud	73	0	0	0	0	0	3	6.7
N. Mukau	73	0	0	0	0	0	1	6.7
O. Giroud	57	0	0	0	0	0	3	6.6
G. Perrin	57	0	0	0	0	0	2	6.6
Tiago Santos	22	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.9
M. Goffi sub	68	0	0	0	0	0	2	7
A. Ueda sub	33	0	0	0	0	0	1	6.7
H. Haraldsson sub	33	0	0	0	0	1	1	7
C. Verdonk sub	17	0	0	0	0	0	1	7.2
O. Sahraoui sub	17	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.3

Le Havre Player Stats

Player	Min	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Rating
M. Samatta	90	5	0	0	2	6.3
R. Ndiaye	90	1	1	6	2	7.2
S. Ebonog	90	2	1	2	2	7.3
D. Ouziad	90	1	0	1	3	6.7
A. Touba	90	0	0	0	1	7.2
G. Gallon	90	0	0	0	0	6.2
M. Ndiaye	90	2	0	2	5	7.2
A. Richardson	82	0	0	1	4	6.6
J. Maja	69	1	0	1	1	6.2
S. Nakamura	69	0	0	2	1	7
A. Seko	61	0	0	0	0	6
J. Mwanga sub	21	0	0	0	1	6.9
R. Fofana sub	21	0	0	0	0	6.7
Kaito Mizuta sub	8	0	0	0	1	6.6

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Lille v Le Havre — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

LilleDWLWL

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.6 scored / 1.4 conceded per game

Le HavreLDLDL

Last 5: 0W 2D 3L · 0.8 scored / 1.4 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Lille 4 · 1 draw · Le Havre 1 · 2.33 goals/game

2026-05-03 Lille 1–1 Le Havre
2025-11-30 Le Havre 0–1 Lille
2025-02-08 Lille 1–2 Le Havre
2024-09-28 Le Havre 0–3 Lille
2024-02-17 Lille 3–0 Le Havre
2023-10-01 Le Havre 0–2 Lille

League standing · 2026/27

Lille#3 pos18 pts9 pl+6 GD

Le Havre#18 pos2 pts9 pl-11 GD

Goals per game

Lille scored1.33

Le Havre scored1

Lille conceded0.67

Le Havre conceded2.22

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Lille 1.32 xG from 5 shots, Le Havre 0.85 from 17. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Lille (attacking right)Le Havre (attacking left)mark size = expected goals

Team	Shots	Goals	xG
Lille	5	1	1.32
Le Havre	17	0	0.85

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, Lille led on xG, 0.72 to 0.29. At full time, Lille led on xG, 1.32 to 0.85. The widest gap was 0.61 xG to Lille, in the 67th minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)

Lille 1.32 xGLe Havre 0.85 xGdots = goals · 22 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Lille v Le Havre?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Lille v Le Havre was Home or Away (best price 1.20 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Le Havre?: In their last 6 meetings, Lille won 4, Le Havre won 1 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2.33 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Lille and Le Havre?: Recent form — Lille 2W 1D 2L; Le Havre 0W 2D 3L.

Today’s Boards

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 24 Oct 2026, 04:30 UK. How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.