This Matchweek

LorientToulouse

Lorient v Toulouse result

Full-time · Lorient 2–2 Toulouse

Ligue 1 · · Stade Yves Allainmat-Le Moustoir

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Lorient · Toulouse · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Lorient 2–2 Toulouse — this Ligue 1 match was drawn. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Away.

Free pick
Home or Away
Best price: 1.33 at William Hill
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.7% of 5142 landed (95% range 76.5–78.8%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated home or away, not the draw (double chance) between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 1,910 of 2,556 times (74.7%), against an average rating of 73.4%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said Toulouse: 1.34 to 0.69 in expected goals, from 13 shots to 10, ahead on xG from the 47th minute (per-shot expected goals for this match). The points were shared.

The result

Lorient and Toulouse drew 2–2 at Stade Yves Allainmat-Le Moustoir in Ligue 1 on Saturday 12 September.

The goals

Lorient led 2–0 at half-time and were pegged back. The goals — Lorient: Ibrahima Baldé (37’, assisted by Panos Katseris) and N. Mbamba (39’, assisted by Panos Katseris); Toulouse: Casper Tengstedt (48’, assisted by C. Cásseres) and Thomas Jørgensen (69’, assisted by C. Cásseres).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s four key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Thomas Jørgensen’s goal on 69 minutes.

Discipline

The bookings — Lorient: Panos Katseris (17’).

What it changes

Lorient move down from seventh to eighth (four league matches played). Lorient have scored seven goals, the second-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 9 games). Lorient have conceded eight goals, the third-fewest of the 18 clubs.

Toulouse move down from 16th to 17th (four league matches played). Toulouse have scored 12 goals, the eighth-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 9 games). Toulouse have conceded 13 goals, the ninth-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs.

Toulouse are winless in their last four matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, C. Cásseres (Toulouse) 12.6, Panos Katseris (Lorient) 7.5 and N. Mbamba (Lorient) 6.7 led the match.

Head-to-head

Toulouse are unbeaten in the last six meetings with Lorient, every meeting checked.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Lorient or Toulouse (no draw), a Bronze-tier call, did not land — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 77.7% of the time in the last 90 days (3993 of 5142).

Next up

Lorient next travel to Le Havre on 8 November 2026.

Toulouse next host Strasbourg on 6 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Lorient: Le Havre v Lorient, Sunday 8 November — the preview. Next for Toulouse: Toulouse v Strasbourg, Friday 6 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Lorient 2–2 Toulouse · Ligue 1
  • Venue: Stade Yves Allainmat-Le Moustoir · Lorient
  • Referee: Aurelien Petit, France
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Lorient 0 · draws 3 · Toulouse 3 · 2.17 goals/game
  • Recent form: Lorient 2W 1D 2L · Toulouse 2W 1D 2L

Lorient 2–2 Toulouse (Ligue 1): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 26 September 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.5 / 1.38
Goals
against 1.13 / 2 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
3.25 / 3.63
Corners
against 7 / 6.5 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
4.13 / 4.25
Shots on target
against 3.5 / 6.38 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
0.88 / 2.75
Cards
against 1.88 / 1.25 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 5 September 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 5 September 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameLorient for / againstLineToulouse for / against
Goals scored
1.5 for · 1.13 against n 8
2.5our book
1.38 for · 2 against n 8
Corners won
3.25 for · 7 against n 8
9.5standard
3.63 for · 6.5 against n 8
Shots
11.13 for · 13.5 against n 8
19.5standard
13.38 for · 17.5 against n 8
Shots on target
4.13 for · 3.5 against n 8
8.5standard
4.25 for · 6.38 against n 8
Fouls committed
8 for · 12.25 against n 8
21.5standard
16 for · 11 against n 8
Cards shown
0.88 for · 1.88 against n 8
3.5standard
2.75 for · 1.25 against n 8

Referee: Aurelien Petit, France.

Lorient

Lorient Goalkeeper

Lorient — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Y. Mvogo390270 min72.3 /9020.7 /9000 /90
Lorient — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lorient before kick-off, to 5 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Y. Mvogo n 890
2.66/4

Lorient Defensive

Lorient — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
M. Talbi390270 min41.3 /9010.3 /9020.7 /90134.3 /9010.3 /9000 /90
N. Adjei390270 min62 /9072.3 /9020.7 /90186 /9000 /9010.3 /90
D. Sylla384252 min20.7 /9093.2 /9020.7 /90124.3 /9020.7 /9000 /90
P. Katseris334102 min21.8 /9021.8 /9000 /9076.2 /9010.9 /9000 /90
A. Georgen11818 min00 /9015 /9015 /9000 /9000 /9000 /90
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Lorient — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lorient before kick-off, to 5 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
N. Adjei n 887.9
0.63/2
0.63/2
M. McKenzie
K. Kouassi n 887.9
0.54/0
1.37/3
C. Cásseres
M. Talbi n 890
0.32/0
0.32/0
C. Tape
Y. Mvogo n 890
00/0
00/0
—
N. Cadiou n 889.3
0.94/2
0.85/1
C. Cásseres
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Lorient — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lorient before kick-off, to 5 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
N. Adjei n 887.9
1.46/5
M. Talbi n 890
15/3
K. Kouassi n 887.9
0.64/1
N. Cadiou n 889.3
14/2
J. Makengo n 870.3
1.45/3
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Lorient Attacking

Lorient — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
J. Makengo384253 min10.4 /9000 /9051.8 /9020.7 /9020.7 /9041.4 /90
G. Bernardeau370210 min00 /9000 /9020.9 /9010.4 /9031.3 /9020.9 /90
M. Kone368203 min10.4 /9000 /9062.7 /9052.2 /9041.8 /9000 /90
A. Tosin22244 min00 /9000 /9012 /9000 /9000 /9000 /90
I. Jensen22039 min00 /9000 /9012.3 /9000 /9000 /9012.3 /90
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Lorient — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lorient before kick-off, to 5 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
M. Talbi n 890
0.42/1
0.11/0
N. Adjei n 887.9
0.41/1
0.31/1
K. Kouassi n 887.9
0.43/0
0.32/0
Y. Mvogo n 890
00/0
00/0
N. Cadiou n 889.3
1.17/2
0.32/0
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Lorient — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lorient before kick-off, to 5 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
K. Kouassi n 887.9
00/0
0.11/0
Y. Mvogo n 890
00/0
00/0
M. Talbi n 890
00/0
00/0
N. Adjei n 887.9
00/0
00/0
N. Cadiou n 889.3
0.32/0
00/0
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Toulouse

Toulouse Goalkeeper

Toulouse — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Guillaume Restes384251 min93.2 /9041.4 /9000 /90
M. Niflore11919 min29.5 /9014.7 /9000 /90
Toulouse — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Toulouse before kick-off, to 5 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Guillaume Restes n 887.6
4.17/6

Toulouse Defensive

Toulouse — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
C. Tape390270 min20.7 /9031 /9020.7 /90103.3 /9031 /9000 /90
M. McKenzie390270 min20.7 /9051.7 /9010.3 /9093 /9031 /9000 /90
R. Nicolaisen390270 min20.7 /9041.3 /9051.7 /90186 /9041.3 /9010.3 /90
I. Diallo347140 min31.9 /9000 /9010.6 /9085.1 /9010.6 /9000 /90
C. Cásseres390270 min144.7 /9020.7 /9020.7 /903612 /9051.7 /9010.3 /90
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Toulouse — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Toulouse before kick-off, to 5 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
C. Cásseres n 889.5
1.97/5
1.56/3
N. Cadiou
M. McKenzie n 884.8
1.56/3
0.54/0
N. Adjei
C. Tape n 390
12/1
0.72/0
M. Talbi
R. Nicolaisen n 890
0.83/2
0.95/2
—
T. Jørgensen n 386
1.42/2
0.31/0
—
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Toulouse — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Toulouse before kick-off, to 5 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
C. Cásseres n 889.5
3.88/7
R. Nicolaisen n 890
1.56/4
M. McKenzie n 884.8
1.16/1
C. Tape n 390
0.71/1
T. Jørgensen n 386
2.83/3
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Toulouse Attacking

Toulouse — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
J. Russell-Rowe354162 min10.6 /9000 /9052.8 /9042.2 /9000 /9010.6 /90
C. Tengstedt12525 min00 /9000 /9027.2 /9000 /9000 /9000 /90
C. Cásseres390270 min00 /9010.3 /9041.3 /9010.3 /90103.3 /9072.3 /90
T. Jørgensen386258 min00 /9000 /9020.7 /9000 /9082.8 /9020.7 /90
Julián Vignolo357171 min00 /9000 /9031.6 /9010.5 /9010.5 /9042.1 /90
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Toulouse — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Toulouse before kick-off, to 5 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
C. Tape n 390
1.73/2
0.72/0
C. Cásseres n 889.5
0.94/2
0.32/0
R. Nicolaisen n 890
0.63/2
00/0
M. McKenzie n 884.8
00/0
00/0
T. Jørgensen n 386
0.72/0
00/0
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Toulouse — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Toulouse before kick-off, to 5 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
C. Cásseres n 889.5
0.11/0
0.42/1
C. Tape n 390
0.31/0
00/0
R. Nicolaisen n 890
00/0
00/0
M. McKenzie n 884.8
00/0
00/0
T. Jørgensen n 386
00/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
LorientToulouse
41%Possession59%
0.93Expected goals (xG)1.63
10Shots13
3Shots on target4
4Shots off target6
3Blocked shots3
6Shots inside the box13
4Corners3
2Offsides1
8Fouls18
1Yellow cards0
0Red cards0
2Saves1
445Passes657
84%Pass accuracy88%

Lorient Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Y. Mvogo9000000007.3
D. Sylla9000000407
M. Talbi9000210107
N. Adjei9000000106.9
N. Cadiou9000101106.9
K. Kouassi9000103107.5
J. Makengo9000101207.5
N. Mbamba6910110307.6
I. Baldé6910110007.2
P. Katseris58020022Y7.2
G. Bernardeau5800000006.3
T. Le Bris sub3200001306.9
I. Jensen sub3200000006.7
A. Avom sub2100000307.2
M. Kone sub2100000006.3

Toulouse Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
M. Niflore9000000005.9
M. McKenzie9000000107.5
S. Koumbassa9000000106.2
C. Cásseres9002005609
T. Jørgensen9010530007.2
J. Russell-Rowe9000202006.2
C. Tape8400000006.5
N. Schmidt8400001207
Y. Azizi6700201306.5
R. Messali4500001106
S. Hidalgo4500000006.2
N. Sigur sub4500001006.6
C. Tengstedt sub4510111007
S. Oppong sub2300000006.3
I. Diallo sub1000000106.6
A. Vossah sub1000000006.3

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Lorient v Toulouse — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
LorientWLDLW
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.2 scored / 0.8 conceded per game
ToulouseWWLDL
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.2 scored / 1.4 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Lorient 0 · 3 draws · Toulouse 3 · 2.17 goals/game
  • 2026-03-21 Toulouse 1–0 Lorient
  • 2025-11-09 Lorient 1–1 Toulouse
  • 2024-04-28 Lorient 1–2 Toulouse
  • 2023-12-03 Toulouse 1–1 Lorient
  • 2023-04-23 Lorient 0–1 Toulouse
  • 2022-08-21 Toulouse 2–2 Lorient
League standing · 2026/27
Lorient#11 pos12 pts9 pl-1 GD
Toulouse#12 pos10 pts9 pl-1 GD
Goals per game
Lorient scored0.78
Toulouse scored1.33
Lorient conceded0.89
Toulouse conceded1.44

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Lorient 0.69 xG from 10 shots, Toulouse 1.34 from 13. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Thomas Jørgensen 80' · 0.13 xGCasper Tengstedt 85' · 0.12 xGJean-Victor Makengo 63' · 0.11 xGJacen Russell-Rowe 50' · 0.09 xGThomas Jørgensen 28' · 0.09 xGThomas Jørgensen 13' · 0.08 xGJacen Russell-Rowe 13' · 0.08 xGMontassar Talbi 16' · 0.07 xGThéo Le Bris 71' · 0.06 xGMontassar Talbi 57' · 0.06 xGJacen Russell-Rowe 82' · 0.05 xGJean-Victor Makengo 78' · 0.05 xGIlyas Azizi 51' · 0.04 xGIlyas Azizi 13' · 0.04 xGCristian Cásseres Jr. 81' · 0.04 xGNoah Cadiou 9' · 0.03 xGThomas Jørgensen 60' · 0.02 xGIsak Jensen 92' · 0.02 xGArsène Kouassi 7' · 0.02 xGCasper Tengstedt 47' · 0.49 xG · goalIbrahima Baldé 36' · 0.14 xG · goalNoah Mbamba-Muanda 38' · 0.13 xG · goalThomas Jørgensen 67' · 0.06 xG · goal
Lorient (attacking right)Toulouse (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
Lorient1020.69
Toulouse1321.34

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, xG was level: Lorient 0.39, Toulouse 0.30. At full time, Toulouse led on xG, 1.34 to 0.69. The widest gap was 0.67 xG to Toulouse, in the 85th minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)
1.30.700′15′30′45′60′75′90′105′MinutesCumulative xGGoal - Lorient 36 minGoal - Lorient 38 minGoal - Toulouse 47 minGoal - Toulouse 67 min
Lorient 0.69 xGToulouse 1.34 xGdots = goals · 23 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Lorient v Toulouse?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Lorient v Toulouse was Home or Away (best price 1.33 at William Hill).
What is the head-to-head record between Lorient and Toulouse?
In their last 6 meetings, Lorient won 0, Toulouse won 3 and there were 3 draws, averaging 2.17 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Lorient and Toulouse?
Recent form — Lorient 2W 1D 2L; Toulouse 2W 1D 2L.

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