This Matchweek

ArsenalChelsea

Arsenal v Chelsea result

Full-time · Arsenal 2–1 Chelsea

Premier League · · Emirates Stadium

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Arsenal · Chelsea · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Arsenal 2–1 Chelsea — Arsenal won this Premier League match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
Best price: 1.75 at Betano
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 67.4% of 543 landed (95% range 63.4–71.2%); it had given them 75.9% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 544 of 845 times (64.4%), against an average rating of 67.7%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said Arsenal: 2.87 to 0.43 in expected goals, from 16 shots to 13, ahead on xG from the fourth minute (per-shot expected goals for this match).

The result

Arsenal beat Chelsea 2–1 at Emirates Stadium in the Premier League on Sunday 6 September. Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 12 matches in all competitions.

The goals

It was 1–1 at half-time. The goals — Chelsea: Morgan Rogers (2’, assisted by Jorrel Hato); Arsenal: Kai Havertz (25’, assisted by Declan Rice) and Martin Ødegaard (50’, assisted by Christos Tzolis).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s three key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Martin Ødegaard’s goal on 50 minutes.

Discipline

Chris Kavanagh, England showed six yellow cards — against 5.3 yellows a game across the last 6 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Arsenal: Christos Tzolis (58’) and Mikel Merino (90+5’); Chelsea: João Pedro (14’), Cole Palmer (45’), Maxence Lacroix (58’) and Morgan Rogers (83’).

What it changes

Arsenal stay second after this result (three league matches played). Arsenal have scored 14 goals, the fifth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 9 games). Arsenal have conceded five goals, the fewest of the 20 clubs.

Chelsea move down from third to fourth (three league matches played). Chelsea have scored 19 goals, the third-most of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 9 games). Chelsea have conceded 15 goals, the seventh-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Arsenal have scored in 13 consecutive matches in all competitions. Chelsea have scored in six consecutive matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Kai Havertz (Arsenal) 7.1, Martin Ødegaard (Arsenal) 6.2 and Christos Tzolis (Arsenal) 5.6 led the match.

Head-to-head

Arsenal are unbeaten in the last six meetings with Chelsea, every meeting checked.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 67.4% of the time in the last 90 days (366 of 543).

Next up

Arsenal next host Hull City on 7 November 2026.

Chelsea next travel to Sunderland on 8 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Arsenal: Arsenal v Hull City, Saturday 7 November — the preview. Next for Chelsea: Sunderland v Chelsea, Sunday 8 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Arsenal 2–1 Chelsea · Premier League
  • Venue: Emirates Stadium · London
  • Referee: Chris Kavanagh, England
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Arsenal 4 · draws 2 · Chelsea 0 · 2.33 goals/game
  • Recent form: Arsenal 4W 1D 0L · Chelsea 4W 0D 1L

Arsenal 2–1 Chelsea (Premier League): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 20 September 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.63 / 1.75
Goals
against 0.25 / 1.63 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.75
over 8 matches
4.14 / 4.75
Corners
against 2.86 / 4.5 · 1 of the last 4 over 9.5
over 7 matches
4.14 / 4.38
Shots on target
against 2 / 4.13 · 2 of the last 4 over 8.5
over 7 matches
1.57 / 3
Cards
against 2 / 2.25 · 2 of the last 4 over 3.5
over 7 matches
5.33 yellows
Referee · Chris Kavanagh, England
26.83 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 6 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 31 August 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 31 August 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameArsenal for / againstLineChelsea for / against
Goals scored
1.63 for · 0.25 against n 8
2.75our book
1.75 for · 1.63 against n 8
Corners won
4.14 for · 2.86 against n 7
9.5standard
4.75 for · 4.5 against n 8
Shots
13.43 for · 7.71 against n 7
19.5standard
14 for · 11.13 against n 8
Shots on target
4.14 for · 2 against n 7
8.5standard
4.38 for · 4.13 against n 8
Fouls committed
9.86 for · 13.29 against n 7
21.5standard
11.38 for · 12.88 against n 8
Cards shown
1.57 for · 2 against n 7
3.5standard
3 for · 2.25 against n 8

Referee: Chris Kavanagh, England — 5.33 yellow cards a game, 0.67 red cards, 26.83 fouls over 6 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Arsenal

Arsenal Goalkeeper

Arsenal — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
David Raya390270 min51.7 /9000 /9000 /90
Arsenal — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arsenal before kick-off, to 31 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
David Raya n 890
1.84/3

Arsenal Defensive

Arsenal — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Ben White390270 min72.3 /9041.3 /9010.3 /90165.3 /9031 /9000 /90
Gabriel Magalhães390270 min20.7 /9041.3 /9000 /9082.7 /9041.3 /9010.3 /90
Cristhian Mosquera386259 min20.7 /9020.7 /9000 /9041.4 /9020.7 /9000 /90
Riccardo Calafiori377231 min31.2 /9010.4 /9000 /9083.1 /9020.8 /9010.4 /90
Piero Hincapié13030 min13 /9000 /9000 /9026 /9013 /9000 /90
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Arsenal — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arsenal before kick-off, to 31 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Gabriel Magalhães n 884.4
1.16/2
1.57/3
M. Lacroix
Ben White n 880.9
0.84/2
0.43/0
M. Lacroix
David Raya n 890
00/0
0.32/0
—
Cristhian Mosquera n 881
1.57/2
0.84/2
—
K. Havertz n 865
1.47/1
13/3
—
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Arsenal — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arsenal before kick-off, to 31 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Ben White n 880.9
1.35/1
Gabriel Magalhães n 884.4
0.85/1
Cristhian Mosquera n 881
1.55/3
K. Havertz n 865
0.52/1
Myles Lewis-Skelly n 874.6
0.63/1
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Arsenal Attacking

Arsenal — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
K. Havertz385255 min20.7 /9000 /9031.1 /9031.1 /9020.7 /9000 /90
Noni Madueke24182 min00 /9000 /9011.1 /9011.1 /9044.4 /9011.1 /90
Myles Lewis-Skelly379236 min00 /9010.4 /9020.8 /9000 /9020.8 /9000 /90
Martin Ødegaard377231 min20.8 /9000 /9041.6 /9031.2 /9051.9 /9031.2 /90
C. Tzolis370211 min00 /9020.9 /9031.3 /9020.9 /9073 /9000 /90
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Arsenal — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arsenal before kick-off, to 31 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Gabriel Magalhães n 884.4
1.16/2
0.32/0
Ben White n 880.9
0.11/0
00/0
David Raya n 890
00/0
00/0
Cristhian Mosquera n 881
0.11/0
00/0
K. Havertz n 865
1.66/2
15/1
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Arsenal — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arsenal before kick-off, to 31 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Ben White n 880.9
00/0
0.11/0
David Raya n 890
00/0
00/0
Gabriel Magalhães n 884.4
00/0
00/0
Cristhian Mosquera n 881
00/0
00/0
K. Havertz n 865
0.74/0
0.32/0
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Chelsea

Chelsea Goalkeeper

Chelsea — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
E. Martínez19090 min44 /9033 /9000 /90
M. Penders19090 min11 /9000 /9000 /90
Robert Sánchez19090 min44 /9022 /9000 /90
Chelsea — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Chelsea before kick-off, to 31 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Robert Sánchez n 887
3.16/5

Chelsea Defensive

Chelsea — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
M. Lacroix390270 min72.3 /9031 /9010.3 /90155 /9010.3 /9000 /90
Joshua Kofi Acheampong367202 min94 /9020.9 /9020.9 /90146.2 /9000 /9000 /90
Pep Chavarría344133 min10.7 /9010.7 /9000 /9021.4 /9010.7 /9000 /90
Levi Colwill281162 min31.7 /9021.1 /9000 /9095 /9010.6 /9010.6 /90
W. Fofana16868 min00 /9011.3 /9011.3 /9000 /9000 /9011.3 /90
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Chelsea — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Chelsea before kick-off, to 31 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
M. Lacroix n 390
0.31/0
0.31/0
Ben White
C. Palmer n 889
0.54/0
27/5
—
M. Rogers n 380
1.53/1
1.12/1
—
M. Gusto n 884.8
1.25/3
0.73/1
—
Joshua Kofi Acheampong n 855.9
0.21/0
1.23/1
—
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Chelsea — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Chelsea before kick-off, to 31 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
M. Lacroix n 390
2.33/1
C. Palmer n 889
1.15/3
M. Rogers n 380
1.12/1
M. Gusto n 884.8
27/5
Joshua Kofi Acheampong n 855.9
2.67/2
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Chelsea Attacking

Chelsea — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
C. Palmer388263 min20.7 /9010.3 /90124.1 /9062.1 /90103.4 /9093.1 /90
M. Rogers380240 min10.4 /9010.4 /9031.1 /9010.4 /90114.1 /9041.5 /90
João Pedro366197 min20.9 /9020.9 /9073.2 /9041.8 /9041.8 /9052.3 /90
D. Welbeck17373 min11.2 /9000 /9033.7 /9022.5 /9000 /9000 /90
M. Gusto378233 min00 /9010.4 /9010.4 /9000 /9020.8 /9010.4 /90
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Chelsea — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Chelsea before kick-off, to 31 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
M. Lacroix n 390
0.72/0
00/0
C. Palmer n 889
2.56/6
1.46/4
M. Rogers n 380
1.13/0
0.41/0
M. Gusto n 884.8
0.32/0
0.11/0
Joshua Kofi Acheampong n 855.9
0.21/0
00/0
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Chelsea — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Chelsea before kick-off, to 31 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
M. Lacroix n 390
00/0
0.31/0
C. Palmer n 889
0.43/0
0.11/0
M. Rogers n 380
0.41/0
0.41/0
M. Gusto n 884.8
00/0
0.11/0
Joshua Kofi Acheampong n 855.9
00/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
ArsenalChelsea
55%Possession45%
2.05Expected goals (xG)0.39
16Shots13
9Shots on target5
1Shots off target6
6Blocked shots2
13Shots inside the box5
5Corners3
3Offsides0
13Fouls16
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0
4Saves8
461Passes384
85%Pass accuracy82%

Arsenal Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Ben White9000000206.9
E. Konsa9000000306.9
Gabriel Magalhães9000220006.9
Declan Rice9001001007.6
C. Tzolis90010041Y7.6
David Raya9000000006.7
Bukayo Saka8900331106.6
K. Havertz7810223007.9
Martin Ødegaard7710114009.3
Riccardo Calafiori6700110106.2
Myles Lewis-Skelly6700101006.5
Piero Hincapié sub2300000106.9
Martín Zubimendi sub2300000006.3
Mikel Merino sub13000000Y6.3
Viktor Gyökeres sub1200000006.5
Noni Madueke sub10000010–

Chelsea Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
João Pedro90001020Y6.3
M. Lacroix90000002Y6.7
Joshua Kofi Acheampong9000000005.6
R. James9000111007.2
C. Palmer90003210Y6.3
E. Martínez9000000008.5
W. Fofana9000002307.3
M. Rogers87103110Y7.3
Pedro Neto8100102106.2
R. Lavia6000000106.9
J. Hato6001001207.2
M. Gusto sub3000100206.9
Pep Chavarría sub3000000106.7
Estêvão sub900110006.3
D. Welbeck sub800000006.5

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Arsenal v Chelsea — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
ArsenalWDWWW
Last 5: 4W 1D 0L · 2 scored / 0.4 conceded per game
ChelseaWLWWW
Last 5: 4W 0D 1L · 2.4 scored / 1.6 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Arsenal 4 · 2 draws · Chelsea 0 · 2.33 goals/game
  • 2026-03-01 Arsenal 2–1 Chelsea
  • 2026-02-03 Arsenal 1–0 Chelsea
  • 2026-01-14 Chelsea 2–3 Arsenal
  • 2025-11-30 Chelsea 1–1 Arsenal
  • 2025-03-16 Arsenal 1–0 Chelsea
  • 2024-11-10 Chelsea 1–1 Arsenal
League standing · 2026/27
Arsenal#1 pos24 pts9 pl+9 GD
Chelsea#4 pos16 pts9 pl+4 GD
Goals per game
Arsenal scored1.56
Chelsea scored2.11
Arsenal conceded0.56
Chelsea conceded1.67

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Arsenal 2.87 xG from 16 shots, Chelsea 0.43 from 13. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Gabriel 11' · 0.52 xGRiccardo Calafiori 4' · 0.48 xGBukayo Saka 17' · 0.30 xGBukayo Saka 68' · 0.14 xGGabriel 4' · 0.13 xGMartin Odegaard 22' · 0.13 xGMartín Zubimendi 68' · 0.11 xGPedro Neto 47' · 0.10 xGKai Havertz 19' · 0.10 xGRiccardo Calafiori 23' · 0.09 xGBukayo Saka 55' · 0.09 xGKai Havertz 14' · 0.07 xGMyles Lewis-Skelly 33' · 0.06 xGMorgan Rogers 30' · 0.06 xGDeclan Rice 55' · 0.04 xGMalo Gusto 60' · 0.04 xGCole Palmer 82' · 0.04 xGReece James 87' · 0.03 xGEstêvão 88' · 0.03 xGCole Palmer 20' · 0.02 xGBukayo Saka 48' · 0.02 xGCole Palmer 62' · 0.02 xGJoão Pedro 35' · 0.02 xGReece James 22' · 0.01 xGMorgan Rogers 64' · 0.01 xGReece James 75' · 0.01 xGMartin Odegaard 49' · 0.56 xG · goalMorgan Rogers 1' · 0.04 xG · goalKai Havertz 24' · 0.04 xG · goal
Arsenal (attacking right)Chelsea (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
Arsenal1622.87
Chelsea1310.43

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, Arsenal led on xG, 1.91 to 0.15. At full time, Arsenal led on xG, 2.87 to 0.43. The widest gap was 2.55 xG to Arsenal, in the 68th minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)
2.91.400′15′30′45′60′75′90′MinutesCumulative xGGoal - Chelsea 1 minGoal - Arsenal 24 minGoal - Arsenal 49 min
Arsenal 2.87 xGChelsea 0.43 xGdots = goals · 29 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Arsenal v Chelsea?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Arsenal v Chelsea was Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.75 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal and Chelsea?
In their last 6 meetings, Arsenal won 4, Chelsea won 0 and there were 2 draws, averaging 2.33 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Arsenal and Chelsea?
Recent form — Arsenal 4W 1D 0L; Chelsea 4W 0D 1L.

Today’s Boards

Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.

Predictions todayTomorrowBTTS boardOver 2.5 boardUnder 2.5 boardOver 1.5 boardHome win boardAway win boardDouble chance board
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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.

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