This Matchweek

ArsenalLeeds

Arsenal v Leeds result

Full-time · Arsenal 2–1 Leeds

Premier League · · Emirates Stadium

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Arsenal · Leeds · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Arsenal 2–1 Leeds — Arsenal won this Premier League match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
Best price: 1.83 at Betfair
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 67.4% of 543 landed (95% range 63.4–71.2%); it had given them 75.9% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 544 of 845 times (64.4%), against an average rating of 67.7%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said Arsenal: 2.32 to 1.20 in expected goals, from 13 shots to 11, ahead on xG from the 66th minute (per-shot expected goals for this match).

The result

Arsenal have conceded five goals, the fewest of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 9 games).

Arsenal beat Leeds 2–1 at Emirates Stadium in the Premier League on Saturday 10 October.

The goals

It was 0–0 at half-time. The goals — Leeds: James Justin (55’, assisted by Gabriel Gudmundsson); Arsenal: Riccardo Calafiori (62’, assisted by Ben White) and Bruno Guimarães (70’, assisted by Declan Rice).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s three key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Bruno Guimarães’s goal on 70 minutes.

Discipline

Paul Tierney, England showed five yellow cards — against 3.8 yellows a game across the last 10 matches refereed (all competitions). The bookings — Arsenal: Martin Ødegaard (84’); Leeds: Ao Tanaka (36’), Ethan Ampadu (38’), Tarik Muharemović (59’) and James Justin (78’).

What it changes

Arsenal stay second after this result (six league matches played). Arsenal have scored 14 goals, the fifth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 9 games).

Leeds stay fifth after this result (six league matches played). Leeds have scored nine goals, the seventh-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 9 games). Leeds have conceded eight goals, the third-fewest of the 20 clubs.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Declan Rice (Arsenal) 7.2, Riccardo Calafiori (Arsenal) 6.6 and Ben White (Arsenal) 5.6 led the match.

Head-to-head

Arsenal are unbeaten in the last six meetings with Leeds, every meeting checked.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

Arsenal next host Hull City on 7 November 2026.

Leeds next host Tottenham on 7 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Arsenal: Arsenal v Hull City, Saturday 7 November — the preview. Next for Leeds: Leeds v Tottenham, Saturday 7 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Arsenal 2–1 Leeds · Premier League
  • Venue: Emirates Stadium · London
  • Referee: Paul Tierney, England
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Arsenal 6 · draws 0 · Leeds 0 · 3.83 goals/game
  • Recent form: Arsenal 4W 0D 1L · Leeds 1W 3D 1L

Arsenal 2–1 Leeds (Premier League): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 24 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

2 / 1.5
Goals
against 0.75 / 1.5 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.75
over 8 matches
4.38 / 4.13
Corners
against 2.88 / 4.5 · 1 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
5.38 / 4
Shots on target
against 3.13 / 5.13 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.25 / 1.63
Cards
against 3.13 / 2.38 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 20 September 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 20 September 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameArsenal for / againstLineLeeds for / against
Goals scored
2 for · 0.75 against n 8
2.75our book
1.5 for · 1.5 against n 8
Corners won
4.38 for · 2.88 against n 8
9.5standard
4.13 for · 4.5 against n 8
Shots
14 for · 9.75 against n 8
19.5standard
13.13 for · 14.13 against n 8
Shots on target
5.38 for · 3.13 against n 8
8.5standard
4 for · 5.13 against n 8
Fouls committed
10.88 for · 13.88 against n 8
21.5standard
11.13 for · 12.25 against n 8
Cards shown
1.25 for · 3.13 against n 8
3.5standard
1.63 for · 2.38 against n 8

Referee: Paul Tierney, England.

Arsenal

Arsenal Goalkeeper

Arsenal — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
David Raya790630 min162.3 /9040.6 /9010.1 /90
Kepa Arrizabalaga19090 min11 /9000 /9000 /90
Arsenal — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arsenal before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
David Raya n 890
25/3
Kepa Arrizabalaga n 889.6
1.85/2

Arsenal Defensive

Arsenal — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Gabriel Magalhães884675 min70.9 /90111.5 /9050.7 /90283.7 /9081.1 /9020.3 /90
Ben White681487 min132.4 /9050.9 /9010.2 /90264.8 /9040.7 /9000 /90
Riccardo Calafiori680478 min71.3 /9010.2 /9010.2 /90173.2 /9040.8 /9010.2 /90
E. Konsa581405 min61.3 /9051.1 /9010.2 /90224.9 /9051.1 /9000 /90
Cristhian Mosquera386259 min20.7 /9020.7 /9000 /9041.4 /9020.7 /9000 /90
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Arsenal — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arsenal before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Gabriel Magalhães n 884.4
1.16/2
0.95/2
T. Muharemović
David Raya n 890
00/0
0.42/1
—
Martin Ødegaard n 880.6
0.42/1
1.46/3
N. Okafor
Declan Rice n 879.9
0.84/2
0.11/0
E. Ampadu
K. Havertz n 871.9
1.47/2
1.76/5
—
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Arsenal — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arsenal before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Gabriel Magalhães n 884.4
0.94/2
Martin Ødegaard n 880.6
1.15/2
Declan Rice n 879.9
1.85/4
K. Havertz n 871.9
0.21/0
Bukayo Saka n 876.4
1.66/2
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Arsenal Attacking

Arsenal — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
K. Havertz776530 min30.5 /9000 /90101.7 /9071.2 /9071.2 /9010.2 /90
Viktor Gyökeres449195 min00 /9000 /9010.5 /9010.5 /9052.3 /9000 /90
Martin Ødegaard779556 min40.6 /9000 /9081.3 /9050.8 /90203.2 /9081.3 /90
Declan Rice778549 min00 /9020.3 /9050.8 /9000 /9081.3 /9020.3 /90
Bukayo Saka774521 min30.5 /9000 /90183.1 /90101.7 /9081.4 /90101.7 /90
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Arsenal — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arsenal before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Gabriel Magalhães n 884.4
0.85/1
0.31/1
David Raya n 890
00/0
00/0
Martin Ødegaard n 880.6
1.15/2
0.74/1
Declan Rice n 879.9
0.73/2
00/0
K. Havertz n 871.9
1.77/3
1.16/1
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Arsenal — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arsenal before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Gabriel Magalhães n 884.4
00/0
00/0
David Raya n 890
00/0
00/0
Martin Ødegaard n 880.6
0.64/0
00/0
Declan Rice n 879.9
00/0
0.32/0
K. Havertz n 871.9
0.53/0
0.21/0
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Leeds

Leeds Goalkeeper

Leeds — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
J. Trafford690540 min223.7 /9030.5 /9000 /90
M. Zetterer19090 min22 /9000 /9000 /90
Leeds — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Leeds before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
J. Trafford n 690
3.76/5

Leeds Defensive

Leeds — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
J. Justin790630 min243.4 /90111.6 /9040.6 /90527.4 /9060.9 /9000 /90
T. Muharemović790630 min81.1 /90121.7 /9071 /90385.4 /9040.6 /9000 /90
N. Elvedi583416 min61.3 /9071.5 /9051.1 /90163.5 /9010.2 /9000 /90
J. Bijol464254 min41.4 /9051.8 /9000 /90196.7 /9010.4 /9000 /90
J. Rodon371214 min10.4 /9031.3 /9010.4 /9093.8 /9041.7 /9000 /90
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Leeds — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Leeds before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
E. Ampadu n 890
16/2
1.16/2
Declan Rice
J. Justin n 890
15/3
1.37/3
—
T. Muharemović n 790
0.63/1
0.73/2
Gabriel Magalhães
A. Stach n 871
1.75/4
1.65/3
—
N. Okafor n 857.3
0.42/0
1.45/2
Martin Ødegaard
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Leeds — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Leeds before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
J. Justin n 890
3.48/7
E. Ampadu n 890
2.58/7
T. Muharemović n 790
1.15/2
A. Stach n 871
2.97/7
N. Okafor n 857.3
1.65/3
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Leeds Attacking

Leeds — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
N. Okafor756393 min10.2 /9010.2 /9030.7 /9010.2 /9051.1 /90153.4 /90
Dominic Calvert-Lewin674445 min30.6 /9010.2 /9091.8 /9071.4 /9030.6 /9020.4 /90
H. Wilson643259 min00 /9010.3 /9000 /9000 /9072.4 /9020.7 /90
L. Nmecha447187 min00 /9021 /9041.9 /9000 /9041.9 /9031.4 /90
D. James446182 min10.5 /9000 /9052.5 /9021 /9042 /9010.5 /90
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Leeds — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Leeds before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
T. Muharemović n 790
0.93/2
0.42/1
J. Justin n 890
0.85/1
0.43/0
E. Ampadu n 890
0.32/0
00/0
A. Stach n 871
1.36/2
0.32/0
N. Okafor n 857.3
0.84/0
0.42/0
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Leeds — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Leeds before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
T. Muharemović n 790
0.11/0
0.11/0
J. Justin n 890
0.11/0
00/0
E. Ampadu n 890
00/0
00/0
A. Stach n 871
0.21/0
00/0
N. Okafor n 857.3
0.42/0
0.21/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
ArsenalLeeds
58%Possession42%
2.33Expected goals (xG)0.62
13Shots11
6Shots on target5
4Shots off target3
3Blocked shots3
8Shots inside the box7
2Corners4
7Offsides4
12Fouls20
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0
4Saves4
512Passes356
85%Pass accuracy79%

Arsenal Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
E. Konsa9000000307
Gabriel Magalhães9000000006.2
Declan Rice9001001207.3
Bukayo Saka9000212107.3
Noni Madueke9000104007.2
David Raya9000000007.7
Martin Ødegaard89002200Y6.6
Riccardo Calafiori8210212206.6
Ben White6301001307.5
Myles Lewis-Skelly6300000007.2
K. Havertz6300210006.6
Viktor Gyökeres sub2700002106.7
Bruno Guimarães sub2710110008.2
J. Timber sub2700000006.9
Piero Hincapié sub800000006.9
Mikel Merino sub10000000–

Leeds Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Dominic Calvert-Lewin9000000006.5
A. Stach9000101307.7
G. Gudmundsson9001212106.9
E. Ampadu90001121Y7.5
T. Muharemović90000000Y6.9
J. Trafford9000000007.7
N. Elvedi8600000106.3
J. Bogle8600112006.6
J. Justin79102101Y7
N. Okafor7100000006.5
A. Tanaka71001102Y6.3
B. Aaronson sub1900000106.2
H. Wilson sub1900000006.5
L. Nmecha sub1100000006.5
J. Bahoya sub1000000006.5
J. Bijol sub1000000007

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Arsenal v Leeds — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
ArsenalWWWWL
Last 5: 4W 0D 1L · 1.8 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
LeedsDDLWD
Last 5: 1W 3D 1L · 1.8 scored / 1.8 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Arsenal 6 · 0 draws · Leeds 0 · 3.83 goals/game
  • 2026-01-31 Leeds 0–4 Arsenal
  • 2025-08-23 Arsenal 5–0 Leeds
  • 2023-04-01 Arsenal 4–1 Leeds
  • 2022-10-16 Leeds 0–1 Arsenal
  • 2022-05-08 Arsenal 2–1 Leeds
  • 2021-12-18 Leeds 1–4 Arsenal
League standing · 2026/27
Arsenal#1 pos24 pts9 pl+9 GD
Leeds#12 pos11 pts9 pl+1 GD
Goals per game
Arsenal scored1.56
Leeds scored1
Arsenal conceded0.56
Leeds conceded0.89

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Arsenal 2.32 xG from 13 shots, Leeds 1.20 from 11. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Martin Odegaard 82' · 0.62 xGJayden Bogle 26' · 0.47 xGKai Havertz 20' · 0.31 xGAnton Stach 24' · 0.28 xGBukayo Saka 95' · 0.23 xGKai Havertz 41' · 0.09 xGBukayo Saka 74' · 0.09 xGMartin Odegaard 50' · 0.08 xGNoni Madueke 28' · 0.08 xGNoni Madueke 91' · 0.07 xGRiccardo Calafiori 66' · 0.06 xGNoah Okafor 7' · 0.06 xGAo Tanaka 52' · 0.03 xGNoni Madueke 61' · 0.03 xGGabriel Gudmundsson 43' · 0.03 xGJames Justin 7' · 0.02 xGJames Justin 51' · 0.02 xGMyles Lewis-Skelly 22' · 0.02 xGAnton Stach 44' · 0.02 xGGabriel Gudmundsson 63' · 0.01 xGEthan Ampadu 34' · 0.01 xGRiccardo Calafiori 61' · 0.58 xG · goalJames Justin 54' · 0.25 xG · goalBruno Guimarães 69' · 0.06 xG · goal
Arsenal (attacking right)Leeds (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
Arsenal1322.32
Leeds1111.20

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, Leeds led on xG, 0.88 to 0.50. At full time, Arsenal led on xG, 2.32 to 1.20. The widest gap was 1.12 xG to Arsenal, in the 95th minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)
2.31.200′15′30′45′60′75′90′105′MinutesCumulative xGGoal - Leeds 54 minGoal - Arsenal 61 minGoal - Arsenal 69 min
Arsenal 2.32 xGLeeds 1.20 xGdots = goals · 24 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Arsenal v Leeds?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Arsenal v Leeds was Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.83 at Betfair).
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal and Leeds?
In their last 6 meetings, Arsenal won 6, Leeds won 0 and there were 0 draws, averaging 3.83 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Arsenal and Leeds?
Recent form — Arsenal 4W 0D 1L; Leeds 1W 3D 1L.

Today’s Boards

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error

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