This Matchweek

Aston VillaBrentford

Aston Villa v Brentford result

Full-time · Aston Villa 2–2 Brentford

Premier League · · Villa Park

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Aston Villa · Brentford · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Aston Villa 2–2 Brentford — this Premier League match was drawn. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Away.

Free pick
Home or Away
Best price: 1.30 at William Hill
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.7% of 5142 landed (95% range 76.5–78.8%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated home or away, not the draw (double chance) between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 1,911 of 2,557 times (74.7%), against an average rating of 73.4%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said Aston Villa: 1.89 to 1.28 in expected goals, from 20 shots to 14, ahead on xG from the 11th minute (per-shot expected goals for this match). The points were shared.

The result

Aston Villa and Brentford drew 2–2 at Villa Park in the Premier League on Saturday 10 October.

The goals

It was 1–1 at half-time. The goals — Brentford: Yehor Yarmolyuk (10’) and Kristoffer Ajer (79’, assisted by Jaidon Anthony); Aston Villa: Nicolas Jackson (12’) and John McGinn (77’, assisted by Johan Manzambi).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s four key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Kristoffer Ajer’s goal on 79 minutes.

Discipline

Craig Pawson, England showed seven yellow cards — against 5.0 yellows a game across the last 5 matches refereed (all competitions). The bookings — Aston Villa: E. Buendía (45+3’) and Matthew Cash (72’); Brentford: Thiago (35’), Vitaly Janelt (75’), Michael Kayode (82’), Kristoffer Ajer (84’) and Callum Wilson (90+5’).

What it changes

Aston Villa move up from 15th to 14th (six league matches played). Aston Villa have scored 10 goals, the 10th-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 9 games). Aston Villa have conceded 13 goals, the ninth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Brentford move down from third to fourth (six league matches played). Brentford have scored 16 goals, the fourth-most of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 9 games). Brentford have conceded nine goals, the fourth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Aston Villa are unbeaten in their last three matches in all competitions. Brentford are unbeaten in their last 10 matches in all competitions. Aston Villa have scored in five consecutive matches in all competitions. Brentford have scored in 10 consecutive matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, John McGinn (Aston Villa) 7.1, Nicolas Jackson (Aston Villa) 7.0 and Kristoffer Ajer (Brentford) 5.7 led the match.

Head-to-head

Brentford are unbeaten in the last three meetings with Aston Villa.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Aston Villa or Brentford (no draw), a Bronze-tier call, did not land — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 77.7% of the time in the last 90 days (3993 of 5142).

Next up

Aston Villa next travel to Manchester United on 8 November 2026.

Brentford next travel to Brighton on 8 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Aston Villa: Manchester United v Aston Villa, Sunday 8 November — the preview. Next for Brentford: Brighton v Brentford, Sunday 8 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Aston Villa 2–2 Brentford · Premier League
  • Venue: Villa Park · Birmingham
  • Referee: Craig Pawson, England
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Aston Villa 2 · draws 2 · Brentford 2 · 2.5 goals/game
  • Recent form: Aston Villa 3W 1D 1L · Brentford 2W 3D 0L

Aston Villa 2–2 Brentford (Premier League): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 24 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.38 / 2.38
Goals
against 1.75 / 0.88 · 3 of the last 5 over 3
over 8 matches
3.88 / 4.63
Corners
against 3.75 / 6 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
4.25 / 5.13
Shots on target
against 5.5 / 4.5 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.5 / 1.88
Cards
against 2.13 / 1.5 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 19 September 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 19 September 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameAston Villa for / againstLineBrentford for / against
Goals scored
1.38 for · 1.75 against n 8
3our book
2.38 for · 0.88 against n 8
Corners won
3.88 for · 3.75 against n 8
9.5standard
4.63 for · 6 against n 8
Shots
12.75 for · 15.25 against n 8
19.5standard
16.75 for · 14.5 against n 8
Shots on target
4.25 for · 5.5 against n 8
8.5standard
5.13 for · 4.5 against n 8
Fouls committed
12 for · 12.25 against n 8
21.5standard
13 for · 8.88 against n 8
Cards shown
2.5 for · 2.13 against n 8
3.5standard
1.88 for · 1.5 against n 8

Referee: Craig Pawson, England.

Aston Villa

Aston Villa Goalkeeper

Aston Villa — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Z. Suzuki683495 min224 /9061.1 /9000 /90
M. Bizot377231 min93.5 /9062.3 /9000 /90
Aston Villa — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 19 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Z. Suzuki n 682.5
45/4
M. Bizot n 879.6
3.87/5

Aston Villa Defensive

Aston Villa — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
V. Lindelöf791636 min10.1 /9020.3 /9020.3 /9040.6 /9030.4 /9000 /90
I. Maatsen686516 min122.1 /90101.7 /9000 /90203.5 /9050.9 /9020.3 /90
T. Mings661368 min61.5 /9030.7 /9020.5 /90174.2 /9030.7 /9010.2 /90
M. Cash579394 min81.8 /9010.2 /9020.5 /90153.4 /9061.4 /9020.5 /90
Pau Torres572358 min41 /9010.3 /9010.3 /9082 /9030.8 /9010.3 /90
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Aston Villa — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 19 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
J. McGinn n 882.9
1.87/3
38/7
K. Lewis-Potter
E. Buendía n 874.3
1.26/1
2.38/5
K. Lewis-Potter
George Hemmings n 870.5
1.97/5
1.13/2
—
R. Barkley n 856.1
1.23/2
14/1
—
V. Lindelöf n 888.6
0.42/1
00/0
K. Ajer
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Aston Villa — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 19 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
J. McGinn n 882.9
1.67/3
E. Buendía n 874.3
1.85/2
George Hemmings n 870.5
1.66/3
R. Barkley n 856.1
2.65/4
V. Lindelöf n 888.6
0.32/0
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Aston Villa Attacking

Aston Villa — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
N. Jackson665391 min20.5 /9000 /90102.3 /9051.2 /9051.2 /90133 /90
Alysson Edward525124 min10.7 /9000 /9010.7 /9010.7 /9000 /9021.5 /90
T. Abraham439157 min21.1 /9000 /9031.7 /9021.1 /9000 /9010.6 /90
I. Mbaye335106 min00 /9010.8 /9032.5 /9021.7 /9054.2 /9010.8 /90
Brian Madjo17272 min11.3 /9000 /9056.3 /9011.3 /9022.5 /9000 /90
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Aston Villa — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 19 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
J. McGinn n 882.9
1.56/3
0.53/1
E. Buendía n 874.3
2.17/5
0.62/2
George Hemmings n 870.5
14/2
0.53/0
R. Barkley n 856.1
1.65/2
0.62/1
V. Lindelöf n 888.6
0.32/0
0.11/0
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Aston Villa — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 19 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
J. McGinn n 882.9
0.11/0
0.43/0
E. Buendía n 874.3
0.32/0
00/0
George Hemmings n 870.5
00/0
0.21/0
R. Barkley n 856.1
0.21/0
0.21/0
V. Lindelöf n 888.6
00/0
00/0
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Brentford

Brentford Goalkeeper

Brentford — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
C. Kelleher590450 min173.4 /9040.8 /9000 /90
E. Balcombe19090 min22 /9000 /9000 /90
H. Valdimarsson19090 min11 /9011 /9000 /90
Brentford — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Brentford before kick-off, to 19 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
C. Kelleher n 890
4.37/5
H. Valdimarsson n 890.8
2.24/3

Brentford Defensive

Brentford — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
K. Lewis-Potter774518 min61 /9040.7 /9020.3 /90183.1 /90111.9 /9000 /90
Michael Kayode758406 min51.1 /9061.3 /9020.4 /90296.4 /9061.3 /9000 /90
K. Ajer690540 min50.8 /9091.5 /9020.3 /90284.7 /9040.7 /9010.2 /90
Jannik Schuster574372 min41 /9000 /9061.5 /90245.8 /9071.7 /9010.2 /90
N. Collins472287 min30.9 /9020.6 /9010.3 /90237.2 /9030.9 /9010.3 /90
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Brentford — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Brentford before kick-off, to 19 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
K. Lewis-Potter n 875.9
1.67/2
0.64/0
E. Buendía
M. Sangaré n 758.9
25/3
1.34/1
—
Michael Kayode n 862
1.54/4
1.65/3
—
Y. Yarmolyuk n 849.6
0.93/1
0.21/0
—
K. Ajer n 889
0.65/0
0.42/1
V. Lindelöf
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Brentford — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Brentford before kick-off, to 19 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
K. Lewis-Potter n 875.9
1.26/2
M. Sangaré n 758.9
3.36/3
Michael Kayode n 862
1.55/2
Y. Yarmolyuk n 849.6
1.85/3
K. Ajer n 889
0.95/2
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Brentford Attacking

Brentford — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Thiago679471 min20.4 /9000 /90132.5 /9051 /9020.4 /9030.6 /90
C. Wilson270139 min21.3 /9000 /9042.6 /9031.9 /9021.3 /9031.9 /90
M. Sangaré759412 min00 /9020.4 /9071.5 /9010.2 /9061.3 /9081.7 /90
Y. Yarmolyuk744308 min00 /9020.6 /9041.2 /9010.3 /9051.5 /9020.6 /90
V. Janelt687521 min20.3 /9000 /9020.3 /9020.3 /9061 /9020.3 /90
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Brentford — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Brentford before kick-off, to 19 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
K. Lewis-Potter n 875.9
15/2
0.43/0
M. Sangaré n 758.9
1.55/2
0.21/0
Michael Kayode n 862
0.72/1
0.21/0
Y. Yarmolyuk n 849.6
0.94/0
0.21/0
K. Ajer n 889
0.32/0
0.11/0
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Brentford — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Brentford before kick-off, to 19 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
K. Lewis-Potter n 875.9
0.11/0
0.11/0
M. Sangaré n 758.9
00/0
0.42/0
Michael Kayode n 862
0.21/0
00/0
Y. Yarmolyuk n 849.6
00/0
0.52/0
K. Ajer n 889
00/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Aston VillaBrentford
52%Possession48%
2.28Expected goals (xG)1.06
20Shots14
7Shots on target4
6Shots off target7
7Blocked shots3
15Shots inside the box12
2Corners2
1Offsides1
7Fouls24
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards0
3Saves5
402Passes361
80%Pass accuracy79%

Aston Villa Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Z. Suzuki9000000005.9
M. Cash90000005Y6.6
V. Lindelöf9000000006.7
T. Mings9000000005.9
B. Kamara9000101107.3
J. McGinn9010332108.2
N. Jackson9010322208.2
João Gomes8600000106.9
J. Manzambi8601313007.2
E. Buendía64002023Y6.2
Matteo Ruggeri4500001006.5
A. Wan-Bissaka sub4500001206.7
I. Mbaye sub2600111106.9
Alysson Edward sub1100000006.5
R. Barkley sub1100001006.6

Brentford Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
C. Kelleher9000000007.5
Michael Kayode90000012Y6.6
K. Ajer90101102Y7.9
E. Diouf9000101405.9
V. Janelt90000001Y6.9
Thiago90001031Y6.9
J. Anthony8501211106.7
Y. Yarmolyuk6710110207.3
K. Lewis-Potter6700001006.7
K. Schade5200410206.3
Jannik Schuster4500000006.3
A. Hickey sub4500000006.3
M. Sangaré sub3800001306.6
M. Jensen sub2300001006.9
D. Ouattara sub2300100306.9
C. Wilson sub12000000Y6.5

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Aston Villa v Brentford — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Aston VillaDWLWW
Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 2 scored / 1.4 conceded per game
BrentfordDDDWW
Last 5: 2W 3D 0L · 1.8 scored / 1 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Aston Villa 2 · 2 draws · Brentford 2 · 2.5 goals/game
  • 2026-02-01 Aston Villa 0–1 Brentford
  • 2025-09-16 Brentford 1–1 Aston Villa
  • 2025-08-23 Brentford 1–0 Aston Villa
  • 2025-03-08 Brentford 0–1 Aston Villa
  • 2024-12-04 Aston Villa 3–1 Brentford
  • 2024-04-06 Aston Villa 3–3 Brentford
League standing · 2026/27
Aston Villa#10 pos12 pts9 pl-3 GD
Brentford#6 pos14 pts9 pl+7 GD
Goals per game
Aston Villa scored1.11
Brentford scored1.78
Aston Villa conceded1.44
Brentford conceded1

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Aston Villa 1.89 xG from 20 shots, Brentford 1.28 from 14. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

John McGinn 49' · 0.43 xGJaidon Anthony 72' · 0.11 xGKevin Schade 48' · 0.11 xGEmiliano Buendía 30' · 0.10 xGThiago 53' · 0.10 xGKevin Schade 3' · 0.10 xGNicolas Jackson 46' · 0.09 xGJohan Manzambi 30' · 0.08 xGJohan Manzambi 69' · 0.08 xGJaidon Anthony 31' · 0.08 xGEmiliano Buendía 61' · 0.07 xGJohan Manzambi 30' · 0.07 xGIbrahim Mbaye 95' · 0.07 xGJohn McGinn 83' · 0.07 xGJohan Manzambi 59' · 0.06 xGKristoffer Ajer 78' · 0.06 xGKevin Schade 16' · 0.06 xGKevin Schade 46' · 0.05 xGNicolas Jackson 8' · 0.05 xGJohan Manzambi 82' · 0.05 xGBoubacar Kamara 86' · 0.05 xGEmiliano Buendía 57' · 0.05 xGEl Hadji Malick Diouf 94' · 0.05 xGJohan Manzambi 59' · 0.04 xGDango Ouattara 85' · 0.03 xGKeane Lewis-Potter 49' · 0.03 xGEmiliano Buendía 11' · 0.03 xGNicolas Jackson 49' · 0.03 xGEl Hadji Malick Diouf 56' · 0.02 xGJohan Manzambi 8' · 0.01 xGKristoffer Ajer 78' · 0.41 xG · goalNicolas Jackson 11' · 0.39 xG · goalYehor Yarmolyuk 9' · 0.07 xG · goalJohn McGinn 76' · 0.05 xG · goal
Aston Villa (attacking right)Brentford (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
Aston Villa2021.89
Brentford1421.28

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, Aston Villa led on xG, 0.74 to 0.30. At full time, Aston Villa led on xG, 1.89 to 1.28. The widest gap was 0.97 xG to Aston Villa, in the 69th minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)
1.90.900′15′30′45′60′75′90′105′MinutesCumulative xGGoal - Brentford 9 minGoal - Aston Villa 11 minGoal - Aston Villa 76 minGoal - Brentford 78 min
Aston Villa 1.89 xGBrentford 1.28 xGdots = goals · 34 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Aston Villa v Brentford?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Aston Villa v Brentford was Home or Away (best price 1.30 at William Hill).
What is the head-to-head record between Aston Villa and Brentford?
In their last 6 meetings, Aston Villa won 2, Brentford won 2 and there were 2 draws, averaging 2.5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Aston Villa and Brentford?
Recent form — Aston Villa 3W 1D 1L; Brentford 2W 3D 0L.

Today’s Boards

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