This Matchweek

BrentfordChelsea

Brentford v Chelsea result

Full-time · Brentford 3–0 Chelsea

Premier League · · Gtech Community Stadium

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Brentford · Chelsea · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Brentford 3–0 Chelsea — Brentford won this Premier League match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Away.

Free pick
Home or Away
Best price: 1.29 at William Hill
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.7% of 5142 landed (95% range 76.5–78.8%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated home or away, not the draw (double chance) between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 1,910 of 2,556 times (74.7%), against an average rating of 73.4%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said Brentford: 2.66 to 0.89 in expected goals, from 13 shots to 12, ahead on xG from the 60th minute (per-shot expected goals for this match).

The result

Brentford beat Chelsea 3–0 at Gtech Community Stadium in the Premier League on Friday 18 September. Brentford are unbeaten in their last nine matches in all competitions.

The goals

It was 0–0 at half-time. The goals — Brentford: Jaidon Anthony (61’, assisted by Jannik Schuster), Thiago (83’) and Fábio Carvalho (90’).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s three key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Jaidon Anthony’s goal on 61 minutes.

Discipline

Andy Madley, England showed two yellow cards — against 3.2 yellows a game across the last 6 matches refereed (all competitions). The bookings — Brentford: Thiago (84’) and Mamadou Sangaré (85’).

What it changes

Brentford move up from fourth to third (five league matches played). Brentford have scored 16 goals, the fourth-most of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 9 games). Brentford have conceded nine goals, the fourth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Chelsea move down from fourth to seventh (five league matches played). Chelsea have scored 19 goals, the third-most of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 9 games). Chelsea have conceded 15 goals, the seventh-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.

It is Brentford’s first win over Chelsea since 28 October 2023, after five meetings without one (the 6 prior meetings TACTIX holds). Brentford have scored in nine consecutive matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Jannik Schuster (Brentford) 5.8, Cole Palmer (Chelsea) 5.3 and Wesley Fofana (Chelsea) 5.2 led the match.

Head-to-head

Chelsea are unbeaten in the last five meetings with Brentford.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Brentford or Chelsea (no draw), a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 77.7% of the time in the last 90 days (3993 of 5142).

Next up

Brentford next travel to Brighton on 8 November 2026.

Chelsea next travel to Sunderland on 8 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Brentford: Brighton v Brentford, Sunday 8 November — the preview. Next for Chelsea: Sunderland v Chelsea, Sunday 8 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Brentford 3–0 Chelsea · Premier League
  • Venue: Gtech Community Stadium · Brentford, Middlesex
  • Referee: Andy Madley, England
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Brentford 1 · draws 3 · Chelsea 2 · 2.5 goals/game
  • Recent form: Brentford 2W 3D 0L · Chelsea 3W 1D 1L

Brentford 3–0 Chelsea (Premier League): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 2 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

2.25 / 2.63
Goals
against 1.13 / 1.88 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.25
over 8 matches
5.25 / 4.75
Corners
against 5 / 5 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
4.75 / 5.75
Shots on target
against 4.88 / 5.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.75 / 2.5
Cards
against 1.88 / 2.63 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 15 September 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 15 September 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameBrentford for / againstLineChelsea for / against
Goals scored
2.25 for · 1.13 against n 8
3.25our book
2.63 for · 1.88 against n 8
Corners won
5.25 for · 5 against n 8
9.5standard
4.75 for · 5 against n 8
Shots
16.88 for · 15 against n 8
19.5standard
14.88 for · 14.25 against n 8
Shots on target
4.75 for · 4.88 against n 8
8.5standard
5.75 for · 5.25 against n 8
Fouls committed
12.63 for · 8.63 against n 8
21.5standard
9.5 for · 12.25 against n 8
Cards shown
1.75 for · 1.88 against n 8
3.5standard
2.5 for · 2.63 against n 8

Referee: Andy Madley, England.

Brentford

Brentford Goalkeeper

Brentford — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
C. Kelleher490360 min153.8 /9041 /9000 /90
E. Balcombe19090 min22 /9000 /9000 /90
H. Valdimarsson19090 min11 /9011 /9000 /90
Brentford — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Brentford before kick-off, to 15 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
C. Kelleher n 890
4.57/6
H. Valdimarsson n 890.8
2.24/3

Brentford Defensive

Brentford — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
K. Lewis-Potter673437 min51 /9020.4 /9010.2 /90142.9 /90102.1 /9000 /90
Michael Kayode656337 min41.1 /9051.3 /9020.5 /90277.2 /9061.6 /9000 /90
K. Ajer590450 min51 /9061.2 /9020.4 /90285.6 /9040.8 /9010.2 /90
N. Collins472287 min30.9 /9020.6 /9010.3 /90237.2 /9030.9 /9010.3 /90
Jannik Schuster471282 min31 /9000 /9031 /90196.1 /9061.9 /9010.3 /90
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Brentford — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Brentford before kick-off, to 15 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
K. Lewis-Potter n 877
1.56/2
0.64/0
—
M. Sangaré n 665.2
1.84/3
1.23/1
—
Michael Kayode n 864.6
1.44/4
1.65/3
—
D. Ouattara n 859.1
13/1
14/1
—
Y. Yarmolyuk n 850.9
0.93/1
0.21/0
Pep Chavarría
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Brentford — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Brentford before kick-off, to 15 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
K. Lewis-Potter n 877
15/2
M. Sangaré n 665.2
3.25/3
Michael Kayode n 864.6
1.24/2
D. Ouattara n 859.1
0.63/0
Y. Yarmolyuk n 850.9
2.25/3
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Brentford Attacking

Brentford — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Thiago576381 min10.2 /9000 /90102.4 /9040.9 /9010.2 /9030.7 /90
C. Wilson270139 min21.3 /9000 /9042.6 /9031.9 /9021.3 /9031.9 /90
M. Sangaré665391 min00 /9020.5 /9071.6 /9010.2 /9061.4 /9081.8 /90
D. Ouattara649293 min00 /9020.6 /9072.2 /9020.6 /9072.2 /9072.2 /90
Y. Yarmolyuk640239 min00 /9020.8 /9031.1 /9000 /9041.5 /9020.8 /90
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Brentford — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Brentford before kick-off, to 15 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
K. Lewis-Potter n 877
15/2
0.32/0
M. Sangaré n 665.2
1.65/2
0.21/0
Michael Kayode n 864.6
0.72/1
0.21/0
D. Ouattara n 859.1
2.95/4
13/1
Y. Yarmolyuk n 850.9
0.73/0
00/0
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Brentford — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Brentford before kick-off, to 15 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
K. Lewis-Potter n 877
0.11/0
0.11/0
M. Sangaré n 665.2
00/0
0.52/0
Michael Kayode n 864.6
0.21/0
00/0
D. Ouattara n 859.1
0.41/1
0.41/1
Y. Yarmolyuk n 850.9
00/0
0.42/0
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Chelsea

Chelsea Goalkeeper

Chelsea — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
E. Martínez390270 min155 /9072.3 /9000 /90
M. Penders290180 min42 /9000 /9000 /90
Robert Sánchez19090 min44 /9022 /9000 /90
Chelsea — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Chelsea before kick-off, to 15 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
E. Martínez n 390
53/3
Robert Sánchez n 887
3.16/5

Chelsea Defensive

Chelsea — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
M. Gusto664386 min71.6 /9071.6 /9000 /90153.5 /9030.7 /9000 /90
Pep Chavarría650298 min51.5 /9051.5 /9000 /9092.7 /9020.6 /9000 /90
M. Lacroix590450 min102 /9040.8 /9030.6 /90255 /9030.6 /9010.2 /90
Joshua Kofi Acheampong576382 min122.8 /9030.7 /9020.5 /90194.5 /9020.5 /9000 /90
Levi Colwill482328 min41.1 /9020.5 /9020.5 /90143.8 /9020.5 /9010.3 /90
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Chelsea — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Chelsea before kick-off, to 15 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
C. Palmer n 883.4
0.53/1
1.67/4
—
M. Rogers n 677
1.65/3
1.23/2
—
R. James n 865.6
14/2
0.74/0
—
M. Gusto n 870.1
0.83/2
0.62/1
—
Pep Chavarría n 649.7
0.62/0
0.62/0
Y. Yarmolyuk
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Chelsea — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Chelsea before kick-off, to 15 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
C. Palmer n 883.4
0.84/2
M. Rogers n 677
1.24/2
R. James n 865.6
0.94/1
M. Gusto n 870.1
1.86/4
Pep Chavarría n 649.7
1.53/1
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Chelsea Attacking

Chelsea — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
João Pedro575377 min30.7 /9030.7 /9092.1 /9051.2 /9071.7 /9071.7 /90
D. Welbeck282163 min31.7 /9000 /9063.3 /9042.2 /9000 /9010.6 /90
Estêvão263125 min00 /9000 /9021.4 /9000 /9064.3 /9053.6 /90
J. Bynoe-Gittens14545 min00 /9000 /9024 /9024 /9012 /9012 /90
C. Palmer681488 min40.7 /9020.4 /90234.2 /90101.8 /90163 /90101.8 /90
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Chelsea — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Chelsea before kick-off, to 15 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
C. Palmer n 883.4
3.88/8
1.87/5
M. Rogers n 677
1.65/2
0.83/1
R. James n 865.6
1.46/1
15/1
M. Gusto n 870.1
0.32/0
00/0
Pep Chavarría n 649.7
00/0
00/0
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Chelsea — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Chelsea before kick-off, to 15 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
C. Palmer n 883.4
0.74/1
0.32/0
M. Rogers n 677
0.63/0
0.82/1
R. James n 865.6
00/0
00/0
M. Gusto n 870.1
00/0
0.21/0
Pep Chavarría n 649.7
00/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
BrentfordChelsea
40%Possession60%
2.65Expected goals (xG)0.83
13Shots12
6Shots on target2
3Shots off target3
4Blocked shots7
9Shots inside the box8
4Corners12
2Offsides2
10Fouls7
2Yellow cards0
0Red cards0
2Saves3
349Passes514
79%Pass accuracy87%

Brentford Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
K. Ajer9000001007.3
V. Janelt9000000307.3
K. Schade9000110107.5
Jannik Schuster9001001108.3
Thiago90103111Y6.3
C. Kelleher9000000007.5
M. Damsgaard8700102407.2
J. Anthony8110111007.3
K. Lewis-Potter8100111106.9
Y. Yarmolyuk6900111207.2
Michael Kayode6900000107.2
A. Hickey sub2100000007
M. Sangaré sub21000001Y6.9
Fábio Carvalho sub1010110007.2
E. Diouf sub900000006.6
D. Ouattara sub900000006.3

Chelsea Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Pep Chavarría9000102306.3
Levi Colwill9000000006.3
J. Henderson9000000106.6
M. Lacroix9000100106.9
C. Palmer9000002307.2
M. Rogers9000211006.9
E. Martínez9000001007.3
V. Barco8700000307
Pedro Neto8700110306.2
D. Welbeck7100002106.7
W. Fofana7100000206.9
Joshua Kofi Acheampong sub1900000106
Geovany Tcherno Quenda sub1900000006.2
Estêvão sub1000000006.3
Mahdi Nicoll-Jazuli sub1000000206.6

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Brentford v Chelsea — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
BrentfordWDDDW
Last 5: 2W 3D 0L · 2.4 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
ChelseaWWLWD
Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 3 scored / 2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Brentford 1 · 3 draws · Chelsea 2 · 2.5 goals/game
  • 2026-01-17 Chelsea 2–0 Brentford
  • 2025-09-13 Brentford 2–2 Chelsea
  • 2025-04-06 Brentford 0–0 Chelsea
  • 2024-12-15 Chelsea 2–1 Brentford
  • 2024-03-02 Brentford 2–2 Chelsea
  • 2023-10-28 Chelsea 0–2 Brentford
League standing · 2026/27
Brentford#6 pos14 pts9 pl+7 GD
Chelsea#4 pos16 pts9 pl+4 GD
Goals per game
Brentford scored1.78
Chelsea scored2.11
Brentford conceded1
Chelsea conceded1.67

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Brentford 2.66 xG from 13 shots, Chelsea 0.89 from 12. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Kevin Schade 82' · 0.34 xGMaxence Lacroix 92' · 0.29 xGKevin Schade 63' · 0.10 xGCole Palmer 77' · 0.09 xGPedro Neto 9' · 0.08 xGMorgan Rogers 29' · 0.07 xGMorgan Rogers 9' · 0.07 xGKevin Schade 42' · 0.07 xGThiago 4' · 0.07 xGMorgan Rogers 40' · 0.06 xGValentín Barco 75' · 0.05 xGKeane Lewis-Potter 22' · 0.05 xGCole Palmer 67' · 0.05 xGPedro Neto 65' · 0.05 xGKeane Lewis-Potter 42' · 0.04 xGGeovany Quenda 79' · 0.03 xGPep Chavarría 58' · 0.03 xGYehor Yarmolyuk 36' · 0.02 xGThiago 58' · 0.02 xGMikkel Damsgaard 38' · 0.02 xGMorgan Rogers 51' · 0.01 xGVitaly Janelt 42' · 0.01 xGJaidon Anthony 60' · 0.83 xG · goalFabio Carvalho 93' · 0.55 xG · goalThiago 82' · 0.52 xG · goal
Brentford (attacking right)Chelsea (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
Brentford1332.66
Chelsea1200.89

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, xG was level: Brentford 0.29, Chelsea 0.28. At full time, Brentford led on xG, 2.66 to 0.89. The widest gap was 1.77 xG to Brentford, in the 93rd minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)
2.71.300′15′30′45′60′75′90′105′MinutesCumulative xGGoal - Brentford 60 minGoal - Brentford 82 minGoal - Brentford 93 min
Brentford 2.66 xGChelsea 0.89 xGdots = goals · 25 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Brentford v Chelsea?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Brentford v Chelsea was Home or Away (best price 1.29 at William Hill).
What is the head-to-head record between Brentford and Chelsea?
In their last 6 meetings, Brentford won 1, Chelsea won 2 and there were 3 draws, averaging 2.5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Brentford and Chelsea?
Recent form — Brentford 2W 3D 0L; Chelsea 3W 1D 1L.

Today’s Boards

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