Brighton v Manchester City result

Full-time · Brighton 2–1 Manchester City

Premier League · Sun, 31 Aug 2025 14:00 BST · American Express Stadium

Updated 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Brighton · Manchester City · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Brighton 2–1 Manchester City — Brighton won this Premier League match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick

Over 2.5 goals

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 66.1% of 622 landed (95% range 62.3–69.7%); it had given them 76.5% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 423 of 644 times (65.7%), against an average rating of 68.4%. How we measure →

Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said little between the sides: Brighton 2.21, Manchester City 2.13 in expected goals (per-shot expected goals for this match).

The result

Brighton beat Manchester City 2–1 at American Express Stadium in the Premier League on Sunday 31 August.

The goals

Brighton came from behind: Manchester City led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — Manchester City: Erling Haaland (34’, assisted by Omar Marmoush); Brighton: J. Milner (67’ pen) and Brajan Gruda (89’, assisted by K. Mitoma).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s three key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Brajan Gruda’s goal on 89 minutes.

Discipline

D. England showed four yellow cards — against 4.6 yellows a game across the last 19 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Brighton: Jan van Hecke (16’) and Joël Veltman (77’); Manchester City: Abduqodir Khusanov (63’) and Rayan Aït-Nouri (69’).

What it changes

Brighton move up from 17th to 10th (three league matches played).

Manchester City move down from fourth to 12th (three league matches played).

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Omar Marmoush (Manchester City) 7.6, Y. Minteh (Brighton) 6.2 and K. Mitoma (Brighton) 6.0 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, landed — graded in the live track record like every other call.

Next up

Brighton next travel to Liverpool on 25 October 2026.

Manchester City next travel to Aston Villa on 24 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Brighton: Liverpool v Brighton, Sunday 25 October — the preview. Next for Manchester City: Aston Villa v Manchester City, Saturday 24 October — the preview.

The numbers

Result: Brighton 2–1 Manchester City · Premier League
Venue: American Express Stadium · Falmer, East Sussex
Referee: D. England
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): Brighton 1 · draws 2 · Manchester City 3 · 3.33 goals/game
Recent form: Brighton 3W 1D 1L · Manchester City 3W 0D 2L

Brighton 2–1 Manchester City (Premier League): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

2.5 / 3.13

Goals

against 1.13 / 1.13 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

4.75 / 6.5

Corners

against 3.63 / 2.17 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 6 matches

6.25 / 5.83

Shots on target

against 4.38 / 2.67 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 6 matches

1.5 / 1.17

Cards

against 1.75 / 2 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 6 matches

4.58 yellows

Referee · D. England

2.21 home / 2.37 away

over 19 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 27 August 2025. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 27 August 2025. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	Brighton for / against	Line	Manchester City for / against
Goals scored	2.5 for · 1.13 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	3.13 for · 1.13 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	4.75 for · 3.63 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	6.5 for · 2.17 against n 6 Last 5
Shots	14.75 for · 11.75 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	15.5 for · 9.83 against n 6 Last 5
Shots on target	6.25 for · 4.38 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	5.83 for · 2.67 against n 6 Last 5
Fouls committed	11.25 for · 9.63 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	7.83 for · 12.17 against n 6 Last 5
Cards shown	1.5 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	1.17 for · 2 against n 6 Last 5

Referee: D. England — 4.58 yellow cards a game, 0.16 red cards, 22 fouls over 19 matches (2.21 to the home side, 2.37 to the away side).

Home 2.21Away 2.37

Brighton

Brighton — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 27 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
D. Gómez n 8	24.1	2.8 3/2	0.9 2/0	E. Haaland
T. Lamptey n 8	76.6	2.1 7/5	1 4/1	—
K. Mitoma n 8	46.1	2 5/2	0.5 2/0	E. Haaland
F. Kadıoğlu n 8	60.4	1.9 7/3	1.3 6/1	—
P. Estupiñán n 8	85	1.6 6/3	0.9 5/2	—

Brighton — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 27 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
B. Gruda n 8	37.5	3.6 6/3	1.5 3/2
D. Gómez n 8	24.1	3.3 4/2	2.8 3/2
K. Mitoma n 8	46.1	2.4 6/2	1 3/1
P. Estupiñán n 8	85	1.7 6/2	0.5 2/2
D. Welbeck n 8	79	1.7 5/3	1.1 5/2

Brighton — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 27 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
B. Gruda n 8	37.5	0.6 2/0	1.2 3/1
J. Hinshelwood n 8	57.1	0.6 2/1	0.4 2/0
D. Gómez n 8	24.1	0.9 2/0	0 0/0
K. Mitoma n 8	46.1	0.7 3/0	0.2 1/0
M. O'Riley n 8	63	0.4 2/0	0.2 1/0

Brighton — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 27 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
M. Wieffer n 8	84.8	6.1 8/8
T. Lamptey n 8	76.6	3.4 7/5
D. Gómez n 8	24.1	3.3 4/2
P. Estupiñán n 8	85	2.8 7/7
Y. Ayari n 8	61.1	2.2 7/4

Brighton — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 27 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
B. Verbruggen n 8	90	2.5 5/4

Manchester City

Manchester City — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 27 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Rodri n 8	39	1.7 4/1	1.2 4/0	—
J. Doku n 8	64.1	1.4 7/1	2.3 6/4	—
T. Reijnders n 8	90	1.1 5/3	0.6 4/1	—
E. Haaland n 8	74.1	1.1 7/0	0.2 1/0	K. Mitoma
Nico González n 8	52.1	1.1 5/0	1.7 5/2	—

Manchester City — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 27 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
E. Haaland n 8	74.1	4.4 8/7	2.1 7/5
P. Foden n 8	32.8	2.7 6/1	2.4 5/1
Omar Marmoush n 8	58.6	2.5 6/5	1.2 4/2
J. Doku n 8	64.1	2.3 5/4	1.2 4/2
R. Cherki n 8	36.8	2.1 5/2	1.8 5/1

Manchester City — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 27 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
R. Cherki n 8	36.8	0.9 3/0	0.6 2/0
E. Haaland n 8	74.1	1.1 6/1	0.2 1/0
P. Foden n 8	32.8	1 3/0	0.3 1/0
İ. Gündoğan n 8	57.4	0.6 2/1	0.4 2/0
Oscar Bobb n 8	35.8	0.3 1/0	0.3 1/0

Manchester City — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 27 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
R. Aït-Nouri n 8	80.4	2.8 7/5
R. Cherki n 8	36.8	2.8 4/3
Rodri n 8	39	2.6 5/3
Matheus Nunes n 8	66	2.2 7/3
Nico González n 8	52.1	2.2 5/3

Manchester City — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 27 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
J. Trafford n 8	90	2.5 6/5

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Brighton		Manchester City
37%	Possession	63%
2.29	Expected goals (xG)	1.84
12	Shots	12
7	Shots on target	3
2	Shots off target	8
3	Blocked shots	1
10	Shots inside the box	8
3	Corners	2
1	Offsides	0
16	Fouls	14
2	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
2	Saves	5
311	Passes	556
74%	Pass accuracy	87%

Brighton player stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
B. Verbruggen	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.7
J. Veltman	90	0	0	0	0	0	3	Y	6.7
J. van Hecke	90	0	0	1	1	0	1	Y	6.9
L. Dunk	90	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	5.9
M. De Cuyper	90	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	7.7
K. Mitoma	90	0	1	1	1	3	2	0	6.9
Y. Minteh	89	0	0	2	1	1	3	0	7
J. Hinshelwood	61	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	6.6
D. Gómez	61	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	6.3
D. Welbeck	61	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	6.5
C. Baleba	60	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.3
J. Milner sub	30	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	7.2
B. Gruda sub	29	1	0	2	2	1	0	0	7.9
G. Rutter sub	29	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	6.6
Y. Ayari sub	29	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	6.7
Diego Coppola sub	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	–

Manchester City player stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
J. Trafford	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8.3
J. Stones	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.3
R. Aït-Nouri	90	0	0	0	0	1	3	Y	6.2
Rodri	90	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	7.3
T. Reijnders	90	0	0	1	0	2	1	0	6.7
Oscar Bobb	90	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	6.6
E. Haaland	90	1	0	7	3	0	0	0	7.3
Matheus Nunes	85	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.6
A. Khusanov	85	0	0	0	0	0	4	Y	6.6
Bernardo Silva	72	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.2
Omar Marmoush	72	0	1	1	0	2	2	0	7.9
N. O'Reilly sub	18	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	6.6
J. Doku sub	18	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	6.3
Rúben Dias sub	14	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.2
R. Lewis sub	14	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.2

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Brighton v Manchester City — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

BrightonWWDLW

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 2.8 scored / 1.2 conceded per game

Manchester CityWWLWL

Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · 3.6 scored / 1.6 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Brighton 1 · 2 draws · Manchester City 3 · 3.33 goals/game

2025-03-15 Manchester City 2–2 Brighton
2024-11-09 Brighton 2–1 Manchester City
2024-04-25 Brighton 0–4 Manchester City
2023-10-21 Manchester City 2–1 Brighton
2023-05-24 Brighton 1–1 Manchester City
2022-10-22 Manchester City 3–1 Brighton

League standing · 2025/26

Brighton#8 pos53 pts38 pl+6 GD

Manchester City#2 pos78 pts38 pl+42 GD

Goals per game

Brighton scored1.37

Manchester City scored2.03

Brighton conceded1.21

Manchester City conceded0.92

Shot map and expected goals

Brighton 2.21 xG from 12 shots, Manchester City 2.13 from 12. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Brighton (attacking right)Manchester City (attacking left)mark size = expected goals

Team	Shots	Goals	xG
Brighton	12	2	2.21
Manchester City	12	1	2.13

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

The full post-match picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

Try Pro for £1.00 — the full match analysis

£1.00 for 14 days, then £9.99/month. Cancel in the trial and pay nothing more.

Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Brighton v Manchester City?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Brighton v Manchester City was Over 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Brighton and Manchester City?: In their last 6 meetings, Brighton won 1, Manchester City won 3 and there were 2 draws, averaging 3.33 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Brighton and Manchester City?: Recent form — Brighton 3W 1D 1L; Manchester City 3W 0D 2L.

Today’s boards

Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.

Predictions today Tomorrow BTTS board Over 2.5 board Under 2.5 board Over 1.5 board Home win board Away win board Double chance board

This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK. How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.