This Matchweek

Aston VillaManchester City

Aston Villa v Manchester City result

Full-time · Aston Villa 2–1 Manchester City

Premier League · · Villa Park

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Aston Villa · Manchester City · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Aston Villa 2–1 Manchester City — Aston Villa won this Premier League match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
Best price: 1.45 at Betano
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 67.4% of 543 landed (95% range 63.4–71.2%); it had given them 75.9% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 543 of 844 times (64.3%), against an average rating of 67.7%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said Manchester City: 2.29 to 0.65 in expected goals, from 15 shots to 8, ahead on xG from the 20th minute (per-shot expected goals for this match). The result went the other way.

The result

Aston Villa beat Manchester City 2–1 at Villa Park in the Premier League on Saturday 24 October. Aston Villa have scored in nine consecutive matches in all competitions. Manchester City have scored in 12 consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

Aston Villa led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — Aston Villa: Nicolas Jackson (6’, assisted by John McGinn; 60’, assisted by Ibrahim Mbaye); Manchester City: Erling Haaland (52’, assisted by Iliman Ndiaye).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s three key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Nicolas Jackson’s goal on 60 minutes.

Discipline

The bookings — Aston Villa: Johan Manzambi (54’), Matthew Cash (55’), Brian Madjo (83’) and E. Buendía (90+5’); Manchester City: M. Guéhi (32’), R. Cherki (38’), Elliot Anderson (74’) and Ryan McAidoo (76’).

What it changes

Aston Villa move up from 12th to sixth (eight league matches played). Aston Villa have scored 10 goals, the 10th-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 9 games). Aston Villa have conceded 13 goals, the ninth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Manchester City stay first after this result (eight league matches played). Manchester City have scored 20 goals, the second-most of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 9 games). Manchester City have conceded 10 goals, the seventh-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Aston Villa are unbeaten in their last seven matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Nicolas Jackson (Aston Villa) 11.0, Abduqodir Khusanov (Manchester City) 8.3 and Jérémy Doku (Manchester City) 6.5 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

Aston Villa next travel to Manchester United on 8 November 2026.

Manchester City next travel to Nottingham Forest on 7 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Aston Villa: Manchester United v Aston Villa, Sunday 8 November — the preview. Next for Manchester City: Nottingham Forest v Manchester City, Saturday 7 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Aston Villa 2–1 Manchester City · Premier League
  • Venue: Villa Park · Birmingham
  • Referee: Peter Bankes, England
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Aston Villa 4 · draws 0 · Manchester City 2 · 2.67 goals/game
  • Recent form: Aston Villa 4W 1D 0L · Manchester City 4W 0D 1L

Aston Villa 2–1 Manchester City (Premier League): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 5 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

2.75 / 3.25
Goals
against 1.25 / 1.25 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
5.63 / 5.88
Corners
against 4.63 / 3.63 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
7.5 / 6.25
Shots on target
against 4.75 / 4.25 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.75 / 1.38
Cards
against 3.13 / 1.5 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 21 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 21 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameAston Villa for / againstLineManchester City for / against
Goals scored
2.75 for · 1.25 against n 8
3.5our book
3.25 for · 1.25 against n 8
Corners won
5.63 for · 4.63 against n 8
9.5standard
5.88 for · 3.63 against n 8
Shots
17.13 for · 15.75 against n 8
19.5standard
16.75 for · 11.13 against n 8
Shots on target
7.5 for · 4.75 against n 8
8.5standard
6.25 for · 4.25 against n 8
Fouls committed
10.88 for · 14.63 against n 8
21.5standard
10.88 for · 12.88 against n 8
Cards shown
1.75 for · 3.13 against n 8
3.5standard
1.38 for · 1.5 against n 8

Referee: Peter Bankes, England.

Aston Villa

Aston Villa Goalkeeper

Aston Villa — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Z. Suzuki1086855 min323.4 /9080.8 /9000 /90
M. Bizot377231 min93.5 /9062.3 /9000 /90
Aston Villa — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 21 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Z. Suzuki n 884.4
3.67/5
M. Bizot n 879.6
3.87/5

Aston Villa Defensive

Aston Villa — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
V. Lindelöf1191996 min10.1 /9060.5 /9020.2 /90131.2 /9030.3 /9000 /90
M. Cash976684 min222.9 /9020.3 /9040.5 /90344.5 /90131.7 /9030.4 /90
T. Mings971638 min60.8 /9030.4 /9020.3 /90233.2 /9040.6 /9010.1 /90
Pau Torres777538 min61 /9010.2 /9010.2 /90152.5 /9030.5 /9010.2 /90
A. Wan-Bissaka772505 min173 /90142.5 /9010.2 /90254.5 /9040.7 /9010.2 /90
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Aston Villa — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 21 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
J. McGinn n 880.4
1.35/3
2.87/5
R. Cherki
V. Lindelöf n 890
0.42/1
0.11/0
J. Gvardiol
E. Buendía n 868.5
1.16/1
2.68/5
—
R. Barkley n 856.4
2.25/4
1.24/1
—
Z. Suzuki n 884.4
00/0
0.43/0
—
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Aston Villa — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 21 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
J. McGinn n 880.4
2.47/5
V. Lindelöf n 890
00/0
E. Buendía n 868.5
2.84/3
R. Barkley n 856.4
1.83/3
B. Kamara n 884.4
27/4
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Aston Villa Attacking

Aston Villa — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
N. Jackson1072719 min50.6 /9000 /90263.3 /90141.8 /90131.6 /90212.6 /90
Alysson Edward833261 min10.3 /9010.3 /9041.4 /9020.7 /9062.1 /90103.4 /90
I. Mbaye743301 min00 /9030.9 /90123.6 /9061.8 /90144.2 /9061.8 /90
T. Abraham535177 min21 /9000 /9031.5 /9021 /9000 /9021 /90
A. Garnacho21733 min00 /9000 /9038.2 /9012.7 /9000 /9012.7 /90
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Aston Villa — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 21 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
J. McGinn n 880.4
1.75/4
14/2
V. Lindelöf n 890
0.11/0
0.11/0
E. Buendía n 868.5
37/5
1.13/3
R. Barkley n 856.4
2.26/3
1.45/2
Z. Suzuki n 884.4
00/0
00/0
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Aston Villa — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 21 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
J. McGinn n 880.4
0.32/0
0.32/0
V. Lindelöf n 890
00/0
00/0
E. Buendía n 868.5
0.53/0
00/0
R. Barkley n 856.4
0.83/1
0.42/0
Z. Suzuki n 884.4
00/0
00/0
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Manchester City

Manchester City Goalkeeper

Manchester City — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
G. Donnarumma1190990 min312.8 /90100.9 /9000 /90
Manchester City — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Manchester City before kick-off, to 21 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
G. Donnarumma n 890
3.16/5

Manchester City Defensive

Manchester City — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Rúben Dias1185938 min90.9 /9060.6 /9020.2 /90393.7 /90151.4 /9000 /90
J. Gvardiol1172788 min222.5 /90111.3 /9030.3 /90576.5 /90111.3 /9050.6 /90
M. Guéhi1085847 min70.7 /9080.9 /9040.4 /90404.3 /9091 /9000 /90
A. Khusanov884671 min212.8 /90141.9 /9020.3 /90375 /9030.4 /9010.1 /90
Matheus Nunes773514 min81.4 /9030.5 /9030.5 /90234 /9020.4 /9000 /90
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Manchester City — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Manchester City before kick-off, to 21 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
G. Donnarumma n 890
00/0
0.11/0
—
Rúben Dias n 883.5
1.96/5
00/0
—
J. Gvardiol n 866.6
1.26/1
1.75/3
V. Lindelöf
R. Cherki n 866
0.21/0
1.45/2
J. McGinn
E. Haaland n 888.8
1.34/3
0.96/1
—
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Manchester City — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Manchester City before kick-off, to 21 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Rúben Dias n 883.5
0.94/2
J. Gvardiol n 866.6
2.95/3
R. Cherki n 866
14/1
E. Haaland n 888.8
0.11/0
M. Guéhi n 890
0.53/1
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Manchester City Attacking

Manchester City — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
E. Haaland1085853 min121.3 /9000 /90384 /90212.2 /9070.7 /9060.6 /90
F. Samba276152 min21.2 /9000 /9042.4 /9021.2 /9021.2 /9000 /90
R. McAidoo23773 min11.2 /9011.2 /9033.7 /9022.5 /9011.2 /9000 /90
Omar Marmoush13737 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9012.4 /9000 /90
R. Cherki1161667 min60.8 /9020.3 /90162.2 /90101.3 /90233.1 /90141.9 /90
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Manchester City — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Manchester City before kick-off, to 21 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
G. Donnarumma n 890
00/0
00/0
Rúben Dias n 883.5
0.73/1
0.31/1
J. Gvardiol n 866.6
0.72/1
0.31/1
R. Cherki n 866
26/3
15/1
E. Haaland n 888.8
4.18/8
2.38/5
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Manchester City — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Manchester City before kick-off, to 21 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
G. Donnarumma n 890
00/0
00/0
Rúben Dias n 883.5
00/0
00/0
J. Gvardiol n 866.6
00/0
0.32/0
R. Cherki n 866
0.74/0
00/0
E. Haaland n 888.8
1.58/4
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Aston VillaManchester City
36%Possession64%
0.61Expected goals (xG)1.56
8Shots15
2Shots on target7
3Shots off target4
3Blocked shots4
6Shots inside the box12
4Corners7
1Offsides2
21Fouls17
4Yellow cards4
0Red cards0
6Saves0
314Passes543
81%Pass accuracy90%

Aston Villa Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
M. Cash90000018Y6.6
V. Lindelöf9000000106.9
Pau Torres9000000006.7
I. Maatsen9000100406.6
B. Kamara9000000606.9
Z. Suzuki9000000009
João Gomes8200001106.6
N. Jackson8220320109.2
J. McGinn6601004107.5
J. Manzambi66001003Y6.9
Alysson Edward5900000306.7
I. Mbaye sub3101001006.7
E. Buendía sub24000003Y6.3
R. Barkley sub2400000006.7
Brian Madjo sub8000000Y6.6
L. Goretzka sub800000006.3

Manchester City Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
J. Doku9000202007.3
E. Haaland9010220007.9
E. Fernández9000002007.2
E. Anderson90000031Y7.3
Rúben Dias9000000006.5
A. Khusanov9000110807.3
G. Donnarumma9000000004.9
J. Gvardiol9000322306.3
I. Ndiaye6901211007.3
R. Cherki45001120Y6.2
M. Guéhi45000000Y5.9
P. Foden sub4500001006.7
R. Lewis sub4500000106.2
R. McAidoo sub21000010Y6.9

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Aston Villa v Manchester City — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Aston VillaWDWWW
Last 5: 4W 1D 0L · 3 scored / 1 conceded per game
Manchester CityWWLWW
Last 5: 4W 0D 1L · 3.6 scored / 2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Aston Villa 4 · 0 draws · Manchester City 2 · 2.67 goals/game
  • 2026-05-24 Manchester City 1–2 Aston Villa
  • 2025-10-26 Aston Villa 1–0 Manchester City
  • 2025-04-22 Manchester City 2–1 Aston Villa
  • 2024-12-21 Aston Villa 2–1 Manchester City
  • 2024-04-03 Manchester City 4–1 Aston Villa
  • 2023-12-06 Aston Villa 1–0 Manchester City
League standing · 2026/27
Aston Villa#10 pos12 pts9 pl-3 GD
Manchester City#2 pos21 pts9 pl+10 GD
Goals per game
Aston Villa scored1.11
Manchester City scored2.22
Aston Villa conceded1.44
Manchester City conceded1.11

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Aston Villa 0.65 xG from 8 shots, Manchester City 2.29 from 15. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Josko Gvardiol 67' · 0.53 xGMathis Cherki 20' · 0.39 xGJosko Gvardiol 55' · 0.33 xGAlysson Edward 39' · 0.12 xGJéremy Doku 58' · 0.10 xGIan Maatsen 46' · 0.10 xGJohan Manzambi 33' · 0.09 xGNicolas Jackson 18' · 0.07 xGIliman Ndiaye 27' · 0.05 xGAlysson Edward 5' · 0.05 xGJéremy Doku 88' · 0.05 xGJéremy Doku 35' · 0.05 xGErling Haaland 92' · 0.04 xGErling Haaland 88' · 0.04 xGIliman Ndiaye 12' · 0.04 xGJosko Gvardiol 64' · 0.03 xGEnzo Fernández 11' · 0.03 xGPhil Foden 85' · 0.03 xGAbduqodir Khusanov 23' · 0.02 xGIan Maatsen 3' · 0.02 xGErling Haaland 51' · 0.53 xG · goalNicolas Jackson 5' · 0.12 xG · goalNicolas Jackson 59' · 0.08 xG · goal
Aston Villa (attacking right)Manchester City (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
Aston Villa820.65
Manchester City1512.29

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, xG was level: Aston Villa 0.46, Manchester City 0.59. At full time, Manchester City led on xG, 2.29 to 0.65. The widest gap was 1.64 xG to Manchester City, in the 92nd minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)
2.31.100′15′30′45′60′75′90′105′MinutesCumulative xGGoal - Aston Villa 5 minGoal - Manchester City 51 minGoal - Aston Villa 59 min
Aston Villa 0.65 xGManchester City 2.29 xGdots = goals · 23 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Aston Villa v Manchester City?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Aston Villa v Manchester City was Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.45 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Aston Villa and Manchester City?
In their last 6 meetings, Aston Villa won 4, Manchester City won 2 and there were 0 draws, averaging 2.67 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Aston Villa and Manchester City?
Recent form — Aston Villa 4W 1D 0L; Manchester City 4W 0D 1L.

Today’s Boards

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