This Matchweek

ChelseaBrighton

Chelsea v Brighton result

Full-time · Chelsea 4–3 Brighton

Premier League · · Stamford Bridge

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Chelsea · Brighton · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Chelsea 4–3 Brighton — Chelsea won this Premier League match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Draw or Away.

Free pick
Draw or Away
Best price: 1.90 at Betano
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Draw or Away in the last 90 days, 68.1% of 1452 landed (95% range 65.7–70.5%); it had given them 75.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated draw or away (double chance) between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 829 of 1,283 times (64.6%), against an average rating of 69.6%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said Chelsea: 3.92 to 1.88 in expected goals, from 18 shots to 15, ahead on xG from the third minute (per-shot expected goals for this match).

The result

Chelsea beat Brighton 4–3 at Stamford Bridge in the Premier League on Sunday 30 August. It is Chelsea’s first win over Brighton since 28 September 2024, after four meetings without one (the 6 prior meetings TACTIX holds).

The goals

Chelsea led 3–1 at half-time. The goals TACTIX’s match events name — Chelsea: Roméo Lavia (4’), Pedro Neto (14’, assisted by Morgan Rogers), João Pedro (32’, assisted by Jorrel Hato), an own goal by João Pedro (63’) and Cole Palmer (74’, assisted by João Pedro); Brighton: Malick Yalcouyé (35’) and Pascal Groß (90’).

Discipline

Michael Oliver, England showed four yellow cards — against 2.8 yellows a game across the last 5 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Chelsea: Wesley Fofana (55’); Brighton: Lewis Dunk (70’), Olivier Boscagli (89’) and Costinha (90+1’).

What it changes

Chelsea move up from sixth to third (two league matches played). Chelsea have scored 19 goals, the third-most of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 9 games). Chelsea have conceded 15 goals, the seventh-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Brighton move down from first to sixth (two league matches played). Brighton have scored 24 goals, the most of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 9 games). Brighton have conceded seven goals, the second-fewest of the 20 clubs.

Chelsea have won their last three matches in all competitions. Chelsea have scored in five consecutive matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, João Pedro (Chelsea) 11.9, Malick Yalcouyé (Brighton) 9.0 and Cole Palmer (Chelsea) 6.6 led the match.

Head-to-head

Brighton are unbeaten in the last four meetings with Chelsea.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, the draw or Brighton, a Bronze-tier call, did not land — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 68.1% of the time in the last 90 days (989 of 1452).

Next up

Chelsea next travel to Sunderland on 8 November 2026.

Brighton next host Brentford on 8 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Chelsea: Sunderland v Chelsea, Sunday 8 November — the preview. Next for Brighton: Brighton v Brentford, Sunday 8 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Chelsea 4–3 Brighton · Premier League
  • Venue: Stamford Bridge · London
  • Referee: Michael Oliver, England
  • Model coverage: 19 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Chelsea 2 · draws 0 · Brighton 4 · 3.67 goals/game
  • Recent form: Chelsea 3W 0D 2L · Brighton 2W 1D 2L

Chelsea 4–3 Brighton (Premier League): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 19 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 13 September 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.38 / 1.88
Goals
against 1.25 / 0.88 · 1 of the last 5 over 3
over 8 matches
5 / 6.75
Corners
against 4.13 / 3.13 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
3.88 / 6.13
Shots on target
against 3.75 / 2 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
3.25 / 1.13
Cards
against 2.38 / 1.63 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
2.8 yellows
Referee · Michael Oliver, England
21.2 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 5 matches
19
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 27 August 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 27 August 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameChelsea for / againstLineBrighton for / against
Goals scored
1.38 for · 1.25 against n 8
3our book
1.88 for · 0.88 against n 8
Corners won
5 for · 4.13 against n 8
9.5standard
6.75 for · 3.13 against n 8
Shots
12.88 for · 10.5 against n 8
19.5standard
17.63 for · 7.25 against n 8
Shots on target
3.88 for · 3.75 against n 8
8.5standard
6.13 for · 2 against n 8
Fouls committed
12.38 for · 13 against n 8
21.5standard
12.25 for · 8.5 against n 8
Cards shown
3.25 for · 2.38 against n 8
3.5standard
1.13 for · 1.63 against n 8

Referee: Michael Oliver, England — 2.8 yellow cards a game, 0.2 red cards, 21.2 fouls over 5 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Chelsea

Chelsea Goalkeeper

Chelsea — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
M. Penders19090 min11 /9000 /9000 /90
Robert Sánchez19090 min44 /9022 /9000 /90
Chelsea — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Chelsea before kick-off, to 27 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Robert Sánchez n 887
3.16/5

Chelsea Defensive

Chelsea — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Joshua Kofi Acheampong290180 min84 /9021 /9021 /90136.5 /9000 /9000 /90
M. Lacroix290180 min63 /9031.5 /9010.5 /90115.5 /9010.5 /9000 /90
M. Gusto272143 min42.5 /9021.3 /9000 /9074.4 /9031.9 /9000 /90
Pep Chavarría258115 min00 /9010.8 /9000 /9010.8 /9010.8 /9000 /90
J. Hato24488 min22 /9011 /9000 /9055.1 /9011 /9000 /90
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Chelsea — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Chelsea before kick-off, to 27 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Joshua Kofi Acheampong n 855
0.21/0
1.23/1
—
C. Palmer n 880.1
0.43/0
2.27/5
—
R. James n 871.9
0.94/2
0.84/1
—
M. Gusto n 884.6
1.36/3
1.14/2
O. Boscagli
João Pedro n 879.1
14/2
2.17/5
—
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Chelsea — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Chelsea before kick-off, to 27 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Joshua Kofi Acheampong n 855
2.77/2
C. Palmer n 880.1
14/2
R. James n 871.9
0.95/1
M. Gusto n 884.6
1.96/5
João Pedro n 879.1
0.32/0
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Chelsea Attacking

Chelsea — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
João Pedro254107 min10.8 /9010.8 /9043.4 /9021.7 /9021.7 /9010.8 /90
D. Welbeck17373 min11.2 /9000 /9033.7 /9022.5 /9000 /9000 /90
C. Palmer287173 min10.5 /9010.5 /90105.2 /9052.6 /9084.2 /9094.7 /90
R. James279157 min00 /9000 /9021.1 /9021.1 /9010.6 /9000 /90
M. Rogers275150 min10.6 /9000 /9021.2 /9010.6 /9074.2 /9042.4 /90
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Chelsea — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Chelsea before kick-off, to 27 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Joshua Kofi Acheampong n 855
0.21/0
00/0
C. Palmer n 880.1
2.76/5
1.45/4
R. James n 871.9
0.94/1
0.53/0
M. Gusto n 884.6
0.32/0
0.11/0
João Pedro n 879.1
28/5
0.43/0
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Chelsea — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Chelsea before kick-off, to 27 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Joshua Kofi Acheampong n 855
00/0
00/0
C. Palmer n 880.1
0.32/0
0.11/0
R. James n 871.9
00/0
00/0
M. Gusto n 884.6
00/0
0.11/0
João Pedro n 879.1
0.32/0
0.11/0
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Brighton

Brighton Goalkeeper

Brighton — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
B. Verbruggen390270 min10.3 /9000 /9000 /90
Brighton — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Brighton before kick-off, to 27 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
B. Verbruggen n 890
1.52/2

Brighton Defensive

Brighton — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
L. Vušković390270 min31 /9051.7 /9000 /90237.7 /9031 /9010.3 /90
O. Boscagli390270 min20.7 /9041.3 /9000 /9072.3 /9031 /9000 /90
M. Wieffer371213 min93.8 /9083.4 /9010.4 /90229.3 /9031.3 /9000 /90
L. Dunk268135 min10.7 /9021.3 /9021.3 /9053.3 /9021.3 /9000 /90
Costinha23671 min22.5 /9011.3 /9000 /9033.8 /9011.3 /9000 /90
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Brighton — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Brighton before kick-off, to 27 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
L. Vušković n 390
13/0
1.32/2
—
P. Groß n 890
0.95/1
00/0
—
O. Boscagli n 890
0.53/1
1.16/3
M. Gusto
B. Verbruggen n 890
00/0
00/0
—
Y. Ayari n 876.4
1.26/2
1.36/2
—
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Brighton — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Brighton before kick-off, to 27 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
O. Boscagli n 890
1.36/4
P. Groß n 890
1.14/2
L. Vušković n 390
12/1
Y. Ayari n 876.4
1.54/4
D. Gómez n 862.6
2.36/4
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Brighton Attacking

Brighton — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
C. Kostoulas346138 min10.7 /9010.7 /90127.8 /9021.3 /9032 /9021.3 /90
G. Rutter284168 min00 /9010.5 /9031.6 /9010.5 /9042.1 /9031.6 /90
M. De Cuyper272144 min21.3 /9010.6 /9042.5 /9021.3 /9063.8 /9000 /90
I. Osman251101 min00 /9000 /9021.8 /9010.9 /9043.6 /9021.8 /90
Z. Yohanna12424 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9013.8 /9000 /90
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Brighton — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Brighton before kick-off, to 27 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
L. Vušković n 390
1.33/1
0.72/0
P. Groß n 890
16/2
0.96/1
O. Boscagli n 890
0.32/0
0.11/0
B. Verbruggen n 890
00/0
00/0
Y. Ayari n 876.4
1.24/2
0.43/0
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Brighton — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Brighton before kick-off, to 27 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
O. Boscagli n 890
0.11/0
00/0
P. Groß n 890
00/0
00/0
B. Verbruggen n 890
00/0
00/0
L. Vušković n 390
00/0
00/0
Y. Ayari n 876.4
0.11/0
0.32/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
ChelseaBrighton
26%Possession74%
2.93Expected goals (xG)1.41
17Shots15
6Shots on target6
5Shots off target8
6Blocked shots1
15Shots inside the box13
4Corners7
6Fouls12
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
4Saves1
227Passes647
68%Pass accuracy88%

Chelsea Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
E. Martínez9000002008.2
M. Lacroix9000100106.3
M. Gusto9000000106.5
C. Palmer9010212207.9
J. Hato9001002207
M. Rogers9001104108
João Pedro9011322108.2
Levi Colwill7200000106.2
W. Fofana68000000Y6.5
R. Lavia6810110107.3
Pedro Neto6810222008.2
Joshua Kofi Acheampong sub2200000106.2
R. James sub2200000006.3
Pep Chavarría sub1800000106.5
M. Caicedo sub1400000006.7
V. Barco sub800100006.3

Brighton Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
B. Verbruggen9000000005.3
F. Kadıoğlu9000101005.7
L. Vušković9000200106.7
L. Dunk90000001Y6.2
O. Boscagli90001110Y6.9
P. Groß9010112107.5
D. Gómez9000511206.2
M. De Cuyper9000001006.2
M. Wieffer8000100007.5
C. Kostoulas8000111006.3
M. Yalcouyé7410221307.3
I. Osman sub1600000106.7
Costinha sub10000000Y6.3
P. David sub1000000006.5

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Chelsea v Brighton — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
ChelseaLWLWW
Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · 1.6 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
BrightonLLDWW
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.6 scored / 0.8 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Chelsea 2 · 0 draws · Brighton 4 · 3.67 goals/game
  • 2026-04-21 Brighton 3–0 Chelsea
  • 2025-09-27 Chelsea 1–3 Brighton
  • 2025-02-14 Brighton 3–0 Chelsea
  • 2025-02-08 Brighton 2–1 Chelsea
  • 2024-09-28 Chelsea 4–2 Brighton
  • 2024-05-15 Brighton 1–2 Chelsea
League standing · 2026/27
Chelsea#4 pos16 pts9 pl+4 GD
Brighton#3 pos19 pts9 pl+17 GD
Goals per game
Chelsea scored2.11
Brighton scored2.67
Chelsea conceded1.67
Brighton conceded0.78

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Chelsea 3.92 xG from 18 shots, Brighton 1.88 from 15. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Cole Palmer 57' · 0.67 xGJoão Pedro 24' · 0.54 xGDiego Gómez 44' · 0.47 xGMalick Yalcouyé 28' · 0.31 xGCharalampos Kostoulas 34' · 0.26 xGDiego Gómez 55' · 0.17 xGJoão Pedro 3' · 0.13 xGJoão Pedro 48' · 0.12 xGPedro Neto 57' · 0.12 xGCole Palmer 56' · 0.10 xGMorgan Rogers 71' · 0.10 xGCole Palmer 33' · 0.09 xGJoão Pedro 40' · 0.09 xGValentín Barco 85' · 0.07 xGDiego Gómez 53' · 0.05 xGMorgan Rogers 41' · 0.05 xGMaxim De Cuyper 23' · 0.04 xGOlivier Boscagli 68' · 0.04 xGDiego Gómez 64' · 0.04 xGMats Wieffer 59' · 0.03 xGMorgan Rogers 40' · 0.03 xGFerdi Kadioglu 76' · 0.02 xGDiego Gómez 61' · 0.02 xGLuka Vuskovic 93' · 0.02 xGMaxence Lacroix 70' · 0.01 xGLuka Vuskovic 46' · 0.01 xGJoão Pedro 62' · 0.00 xGRomeo Lavia 3' · 0.64 xG · goalPedro Neto 13' · 0.60 xG · goalJoão Pedro 31' · 0.50 xG · goalMalick Yalcouyé 34' · 0.34 xG · goalCole Palmer 73' · 0.05 xG · goalPascal Groß 95' · 0.05 xG · goal
Chelsea (attacking right)Brighton (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
Chelsea1843.92
Brighton1521.88

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, Chelsea led on xG, 2.67 to 1.43. At full time, Chelsea led on xG, 3.92 to 1.88. The widest gap was 2.14 xG to Chelsea, in the 33rd minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)
3.92.000′15′30′45′60′75′90′105′MinutesCumulative xGGoal - Chelsea 3 minGoal - Chelsea 13 minGoal - Chelsea 31 minGoal - Brighton 34 minGoal - Chelsea 73 minGoal - Brighton 95 min
Chelsea 3.92 xGBrighton 1.88 xGdots = goals · 33 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Chelsea v Brighton?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Chelsea v Brighton was Draw or Away (best price 1.90 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Chelsea and Brighton?
In their last 6 meetings, Chelsea won 2, Brighton won 4 and there were 0 draws, averaging 3.67 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Chelsea and Brighton?
Recent form — Chelsea 3W 0D 2L; Brighton 2W 1D 2L.

Today’s Boards

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error

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