This Matchweek

LeedsBrentford

Leeds v Brentford result

Full-time · Leeds 1–1 Brentford

Premier League · · Elland Road

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Leeds · Brentford · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Leeds 1–1 Brentford — this Premier League match was drawn. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
Best price: 1.91 at Betano
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 67.4% of 543 landed (95% range 63.4–71.2%); it had given them 75.9% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 544 of 845 times (64.4%), against an average rating of 67.7%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said Brentford: 1.74 to 1.18 in expected goals, from 22 shots to 12, ahead on xG from the 80th minute (per-shot expected goals for this match). The points were shared.

The result

Leeds and Brentford drew 1–1 at Elland Road in the Premier League on Sunday 30 August.

The goals

Brentford led 1–0 at half-time and were pegged back. The goals — Brentford: Kevin Schade (41’, assisted by Keane Lewis-Potter); Leeds: Dominic Calvert-Lewin (79’, assisted by Lukas Nmecha).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s two key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s goal on 79 minutes.

Discipline

Tony Harrington, England showed four yellow cards — against 3.3 yellows a game across the last 6 matches refereed (all competitions). The bookings — Brentford: Jaidon Anthony (30’), Kristoffer Ajer (74’), Vitaly Janelt (76’) and Nathan Collins (90+3’).

What it changes

Leeds move down from fifth to seventh (two league matches played). Leeds have scored nine goals, the seventh-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 9 games). Leeds have conceded eight goals, the third-fewest of the 20 clubs.

Brentford move down from first to fourth (two league matches played). Brentford have scored 16 goals, the fourth-most of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 9 games). Brentford have conceded nine goals, the fourth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Leeds are unbeaten in their last three matches in all competitions. Brentford are unbeaten in their last five matches in all competitions. Brentford have scored in five consecutive matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Kevin Schade (Brentford) 7.0, Tarik Muharemović (Leeds) 6.9 and Mamadou Sangaré (Brentford) 6.2 led the match.

Head-to-head

Leeds are unbeaten in the last three meetings with Brentford.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, did not land — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

Leeds next host Tottenham on 7 November 2026.

Brentford next travel to Brighton on 8 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Leeds: Leeds v Tottenham, Saturday 7 November — the preview. Next for Brentford: Brighton v Brentford, Sunday 8 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Leeds 1–1 Brentford · Premier League
  • Venue: Elland Road · Leeds
  • Referee: Tony Harrington, England
  • Model coverage: 19 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Leeds 1 · draws 4 · Brentford 1 · 2.67 goals/game
  • Recent form: Leeds 3W 1D 1L · Brentford 2W 2D 1L

Leeds 1–1 Brentford (Premier League): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 19 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 13 September 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.25 / 2
Goals
against 1 / 1.13 · 1 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
3.38 / 5.63
Corners
against 6.5 / 6.38 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
3.75 / 4.63
Shots on target
against 4.63 / 4.88 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.13 / 1.63
Cards
against 2.25 / 2.25 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
19
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 25 August 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 25 August 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameLeeds for / againstLineBrentford for / against
Goals scored
1.25 for · 1 against n 8
2.5our book
2 for · 1.13 against n 8
Corners won
3.38 for · 6.5 against n 8
9.5standard
5.63 for · 6.38 against n 8
Shots
11.63 for · 13.13 against n 8
19.5standard
14 for · 14.63 against n 8
Shots on target
3.75 for · 4.63 against n 8
8.5standard
4.63 for · 4.88 against n 8
Fouls committed
11.38 for · 11.5 against n 8
21.5standard
10.5 for · 9.5 against n 8
Cards shown
2.13 for · 2.25 against n 8
3.5standard
1.63 for · 2.25 against n 8

Referee: Tony Harrington, England.

Leeds

Leeds Goalkeeper

Leeds — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
J. Trafford290180 min52.5 /9000 /9000 /90

Leeds Defensive

Leeds — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
J. Rodon290180 min10.5 /9031.5 /9000 /9084 /9031.5 /9000 /90
T. Muharemović290180 min31.5 /9021 /9010.5 /9084 /9031.5 /9000 /90
J. Bogle255109 min10.8 /9010.8 /9000 /9054.1 /9010.8 /9000 /90
J. Bijol19090 min11 /9022 /9000 /9099 /9011 /9000 /90
N. Elvedi19090 min44 /9033 /9000 /9066 /9000 /9000 /90
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Leeds — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Leeds before kick-off, to 25 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
E. Ampadu n 890
28/4
1.87/5
V. Janelt
J. Rodon n 878.8
1.37/2
0.43/0
N. Collins
J. Justin n 884.4
0.73/2
1.56/3
V. Janelt
A. Stach n 871.6
1.46/2
1.45/2
V. Janelt
J. Bogle n 873.9
1.46/2
1.55/3
V. Janelt
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Leeds — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Leeds before kick-off, to 25 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
J. Justin n 884.4
3.37/6
E. Ampadu n 890
2.57/6
J. Rodon n 878.8
0.94/2
A. Stach n 871.6
2.57/6
J. Bogle n 873.9
2.67/4
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Leeds Attacking

Leeds — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
N. Okafor24691 min00 /9000 /9011 /9000 /9022 /9044 /90
H. Wilson24589 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9022 /9011 /90
Dominic Calvert-Lewin19090 min00 /9000 /9011 /9000 /9000 /9000 /90
L. Nmecha18383 min00 /9000 /9022.2 /9000 /9011.1 /9011.1 /90
S. Longstaff16767 min00 /9011.3 /9011.3 /9011.3 /9011.3 /9000 /90
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Leeds — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Leeds before kick-off, to 25 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
J. Justin n 884.4
0.43/0
0.32/0
J. Rodon n 878.8
0.43/0
0.43/0
E. Ampadu n 890
0.11/0
00/0
A. Stach n 871.6
1.97/3
0.64/0
J. Bogle n 873.9
0.21/0
00/0
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Leeds — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Leeds before kick-off, to 25 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
J. Justin n 884.4
0.11/0
00/0
E. Ampadu n 890
00/0
00/0
J. Rodon n 878.8
00/0
00/0
A. Stach n 871.6
0.32/0
00/0
J. Bogle n 873.9
00/0
0.21/0
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Brentford

Brentford Goalkeeper

Brentford — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
C. Kelleher19090 min44 /9000 /9000 /90
H. Valdimarsson19090 min11 /9011 /9000 /90
Brentford — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Brentford before kick-off, to 25 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
C. Kelleher n 890
47/7
H. Valdimarsson n 890.8
2.24/3

Brentford Defensive

Brentford — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
N. Collins290180 min10.5 /9000 /9010.5 /90147 /9010.5 /9000 /90
Michael Kayode24895 min10.9 /9032.8 /9000 /90109.5 /9000 /9000 /90
A. Hickey19090 min11 /9000 /9000 /9033 /9011 /9000 /90
Jannik Schuster19090 min11 /9000 /9011 /9099 /9022 /9011 /90
K. Ajer19090 min22 /9022 /9000 /9099 /9011 /9000 /90
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Brentford — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Brentford before kick-off, to 25 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
N. Collins n 890
0.64/1
0.52/1
J. Rodon
V. Janelt n 871
2.27/4
16/0
J. Bogle
K. Schade n 873.1
1.76/4
1.45/2
—
D. Ouattara n 872.9
1.15/1
1.46/3
—
Thiago n 881.4
1.85/3
0.63/1
—
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Brentford — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Brentford before kick-off, to 25 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
N. Collins n 890
0.95/1
V. Janelt n 871
2.15/4
K. Schade n 873.1
1.14/2
D. Ouattara n 872.9
0.93/1
Thiago n 881.4
1.56/4
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Brentford Attacking

Brentford — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Thiago256111 min10.8 /9000 /9032.4 /9010.8 /9000 /9010.8 /90
K. Lewis-Potter255109 min10.8 /9000 /9010.8 /9010.8 /9032.5 /9021.7 /90
C. Wilson16262 min11.5 /9000 /9011.5 /9011.5 /9000 /9011.5 /90
V. Janelt281161 min10.6 /9000 /9010.6 /9010.6 /9031.7 /9010.6 /90
K. Schade268135 min00 /9000 /9042.7 /9021.3 /9010.7 /9021.3 /90
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Brentford — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Brentford before kick-off, to 25 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
N. Collins n 890
0.93/2
0.41/1
V. Janelt n 871
0.52/1
0.21/0
K. Schade n 873.1
1.44/2
0.83/2
D. Ouattara n 872.9
2.97/6
1.24/2
Thiago n 881.4
1.47/3
0.73/2
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Brentford — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Brentford before kick-off, to 25 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
N. Collins n 890
0.31/1
00/0
V. Janelt n 871
0.21/0
00/0
K. Schade n 873.1
0.21/0
00/0
D. Ouattara n 872.9
0.31/1
00/0
Thiago n 881.4
0.32/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
LeedsBrentford
47%Possession53%
1.46Expected goals (xG)1.67
12Shots22
2Shots on target5
4Shots off target6
6Blocked shots11
6Shots inside the box17
5Corners6
2Offsides0
5Fouls13
0Yellow cards4
0Red cards0
4Saves1
369Passes425
76%Pass accuracy78%

Leeds Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
J. Trafford9000000006.9
T. Muharemović9000000207.5
E. Ampadu9000101207.3
A. Stach9000001406.9
J. Justin9000111207
Dominic Calvert-Lewin9010110007.3
N. Okafor6900000106.9
J. Bogle6800001207
J. Bijol4500000006.5
B. Aaronson4500000106.3
J. Rodon3400000006.6
N. Elvedi sub5600000106.3
H. Wilson sub4500001107.2
A. Tanaka sub4500000306.9
D. James sub2200200006.7
L. Nmecha sub2101102006.7

Brentford Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
C. Kelleher9000000006.9
K. Ajer90000020Y6.9
N. Collins90001102Y6.3
M. Sangaré9000102406.7
V. Janelt90000023Y6.9
Thiago9000520106.2
Michael Kayode8800001106.9
K. Lewis-Potter8801002206.6
K. Schade8810211207.3
M. Damsgaard6900212207.3
J. Anthony61000020Y6.5
D. Ouattara sub2900001107.5
Y. Yarmolyuk sub2100001006.2
A. Hickey sub20000010–
R. Henry sub20000000–
C. Wilson sub20000000–

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Leeds v Brentford — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
LeedsDWLWW
Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 1 scored / 0.8 conceded per game
BrentfordLDDWW
Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · 2.4 scored / 1.4 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Leeds 1 · 4 draws · Brentford 1 · 2.67 goals/game
  • 2026-03-21 Leeds 0–0 Brentford
  • 2025-12-14 Brentford 1–1 Leeds
  • 2023-01-22 Leeds 0–0 Brentford
  • 2022-09-03 Brentford 5–2 Leeds
  • 2022-05-22 Brentford 1–2 Leeds
  • 2021-12-05 Leeds 2–2 Brentford
League standing · 2026/27
Leeds#12 pos11 pts9 pl+1 GD
Brentford#6 pos14 pts9 pl+7 GD
Goals per game
Leeds scored1
Brentford scored1.78
Leeds conceded0.89
Brentford conceded1

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Leeds 1.18 xG from 12 shots, Brentford 1.74 from 22. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Thiago 80' · 0.54 xGThiago 80' · 0.23 xGKevin Schade 0' · 0.11 xGMamadou Sangaré 40' · 0.10 xGDaniel James 72' · 0.09 xGJaidon Anthony 10' · 0.08 xGCallum Wilson 90' · 0.07 xGMamadou Sangaré 23' · 0.06 xGAnton Stach 76' · 0.06 xGThiago 70' · 0.06 xGThiago 7' · 0.05 xGMamadou Sangaré 70' · 0.04 xGKevin Schade 39' · 0.04 xGNathan Collins 9' · 0.04 xGDaniel James 68' · 0.04 xGNoah Okafor 4' · 0.04 xGMikkel Damsgaard 13' · 0.04 xGLukas Nmecha 78' · 0.04 xGNathan Collins 56' · 0.04 xGNoah Okafor 49' · 0.04 xGDaniel James 83' · 0.03 xGJaidon Anthony 54' · 0.03 xGDaniel James 81' · 0.03 xGNathan Collins 55' · 0.02 xGMichael Kayode 71' · 0.02 xGJames Justin 63' · 0.02 xGMikkel Damsgaard 56' · 0.02 xGDango Ouattara 69' · 0.01 xGEthan Ampadu 20' · 0.01 xGHarry Wilson 62' · 0.01 xGKeane Lewis-Potter 8' · 0.01 xGThiago 45' · 0.01 xGDominic Calvert-Lewin 78' · 0.77 xG · goalKevin Schade 40' · 0.11 xG · goal
Leeds (attacking right)Brentford (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
Leeds1211.18
Brentford2211.74

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, Brentford led on xG, 0.65 to 0.06. At full time, Brentford led on xG, 1.74 to 1.18. The widest gap was 0.74 xG to Brentford, in the 71st minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)
1.70.900′15′30′45′60′75′90′MinutesCumulative xGGoal - Brentford 40 minGoal - Leeds 78 min
Leeds 1.18 xGBrentford 1.74 xGdots = goals · 34 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Leeds v Brentford?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Leeds v Brentford was Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.91 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Leeds and Brentford?
In their last 6 meetings, Leeds won 1, Brentford won 1 and there were 4 draws, averaging 2.67 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Leeds and Brentford?
Recent form — Leeds 3W 1D 1L; Brentford 2W 2D 1L.

Today’s Boards

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